Sunday, May 6, 2018



AnotherMailman: Article: “  Iraq closes all its land and air borders for two days”  LINK

This would seem to be a very good time to make any major changes to your currency with the borders closed for two days! 


Lexi:  I believe the election may have been a tiny bit more pivotal than we may have given it credit for... Would you (countries and people with huge stakes in this) want to release it all ( the gravity of all that rides on getting this right) if you didn’t know without a shadow of doubt who was going to be directing the country through this pivotal time in history with all this money and success?- Unless... we have the power to make sure our guy is in there one way or another...wink...wink

HoosierGirl:  I have seen articles where US military will be in Iraq to be sure the elections are fair, without major corruption, to allow the people to vote without threats, etc. 

Don961:  article from 3 weeks ago ... reappearing ... imo

The beginning of the collapse of the Iranian currency signals the end of the political system in Tehran

The Iranian currency fell against the dollar in less than a year, stable at the edge of 5,000 Tumans, as the dollar rose 400 Tuman to 4985 on 13 February 2018, which coincided with the re-election of President Hassan Rowhani for a second term. 

The official Iranian agency said that the reason for the decline, due to lack of supply and raising the price of currency in exchange offices, while experts and specialists believe that the economic and political reasons for this decline are: 

• Protests in Iran in late December 2017, due to high prices and unemployment, which began with socio-economic headlines and raised slogans against the ruling establishment, and the demonstrations and internal political stimuli associated with the reformist-fundamentalist struggle, their out of control and transformation into space to oppose the regime to confront Between protesters and the authorities, leading to insecurity and low confidence in the Iranian market. 

• The threat of US President Donald Trump to cancel the nuclear agreement created fears in the Iranian street, which affected the formulation of the Iranian economic scene, and the entry of Iranians to the stage of questioning, as the first manifestations of public concern in the increasing demand for the dollar and withdraw deposits for fear of the collapse of the currency, The bankruptcy of financial institutions that could not meet the applications of depositors. 

Experts and specialists believe that the crisis is linked exclusively to the consequences of the economic sanctions that remain on Iran and the lack of foreign investment flowing into Iran. 

Limiting the causes of economic sanctions alone has shown an incomplete picture of Iran's complex crisis and Iranian economic and political evidence, so that analytical conclusions can not produce clear results. 

Because the economy and politics are two sides of a single coin, the crisis must have repercussions beyond mere exchange rates and collapse, and go beyond Iranian financial policies that contributed to the emergence of the crisis. 

The collapse of the exchange rate reflects a clear deterioration in the state of the Iranian economy, because the successive collapse of the exchange rate is reflected heavily on the prices of real estate assets and living standards of Iranians, especially retirees and fixed income. 

The newspaper Arman described what is happening in the Iranian market as an attempt to "coup" against the government through the currency. "If the effect of the currency is not directly on people's lives, the psychological impact can be difficult for society because the fluctuations of the currency and gold market cause the deterioration of calm. Psychological consequences for citizens. 

The newspaper accused the "losers in the world of politics and economic groups" working hideously to confront the government through the "economy" (currency market and gold) to become a political weapon against the government. 

Economic and political experts stressed that the increase in the demand to buy the dollar despite the increase in value due to lack of confidence in the Iranian regime, because of its expansionist and hostile policy in the region, which led to the exposure of their countries to international sanctions, in addition to the flight of foreign capital from Iran, The price of commodities and goods has skyrocketed. 

He criticized the Iranian economic analyst Faridoon Khawand, the decision to determine the foreign exchange rate of his country, saying that the central bank will not be able to control much the price of green currency, pointing out that there are several factors that control the foreign exchange market in Iran, including inflation and foreign trade, especially in light of fluctuations World oil markets. 

In the same context, the Iranian government tightened its grip to stop the devaluation of its local currency against the dollar, which fell to record levels. The central bank of Iran set a maximum limit for Iranians holding foreign exchange outside banks at 10,000 euros. 

The central bank gave a date for consumers until the end of April to sell any surplus or deposit it in banks, Tasnim News Agency reported. 

The official website of the Central Bank of Iran published new and official exchange rates for the pound sterling at 59330 riyals and the euro at 51709 riyals. 

Iranian First Vice President Yitzhak Jahangiri described the crisis as an aggressive attempt against Iran, especially the United States, after the nuclear deal, stressing that Tramp is trying to disrupt the economic situation in order to prevent investment in Iran. 

Jahangiri pointed to Iran's agreements with other countries to attract foreign investments of more than 30 billion dollars in the form of finance, adding that a large volume of foreign investment is now moving into the country. In such circumstances, such changes in the foreign exchange rate appear to be Is completely abnormal and that there are uneconomic, unjustified and unexpected factors that are influential in this area. In such circumstances, we can not allow a disturbance in the country's economic climate. 

Jahangiri said that the price that was set at the meeting for the price of the dollar is 4200 Toman, it will be approved in transactions and does not recognize the government at any other price and will be held accountable for dealing at a higher price, as the security and judicial authorities are expensive to address it.

Iran was between the official exchange rate of its currency and its price on the open market a few days ago, and announced that the price of the dollar will be 42 thousand riyals in all markets and all business activities.

The expectations of the Iranian market observers that the economy of Tehran will see a collapse and specifically in the banking sector, in the coming period, considering that the foreign currency crisis is likely to expose the Iranian regime to the scenario of Venezuela's acute crisis, which is experiencing a deepening economic crisis or the bankruptcy of official financial institutions in the country.

The Iranian government's policy of imposing economic sanctions and reducing the price of the Iranian currency, especially the process of withholding Iran from the international exchange process (SWIFT), made its international exchanges very difficult and therefore the most important financial penalty to be directed to Iran. Anyone who has visited Tehran in recent years has difficulty using electronic payment cards in Iranian hotels and shops to buy goods and goods, forcing tourists to carry large amounts of money in their travel and travel in Iran.While the effects of economic sanctions are clear, the collapse of exchange rates can not be justified solely by the fact that these sanctions are only doing their work, but the policies of Iranian President Hassan Rowhani must also be put in front of their responsibilities. 

Neoliberal policies of Hassan Rohani's government have also contributed to this outcome, and the clash between policies of bias for the vulnerable as a political slogan and policies of bias against them as economic practice. 

Therefore, the Iranian president is drawing attention now that he is under great pressure because of his responsibility for the current economic crisis. It is obvious that the wings of the government in Iran are trying to make him pay the price of the economic crisis for the remainder of the political balance in order to prevent the crisis from spreading to the entire regime. 

Given Iran's historical background, it is likely to be re-aligned within the regime on the basis of a formula that can resolve the economic crisis through its influence with actors in Iran's economic equation, which requires relatively little time and quiet because of US President Donald Trump's statements and pressures. 

And economic failures will continue to do their work inside Iran for a foreseeable period, which puts pressure on Iran's decision maker in the political and regional files.However, economic and regional pressures do not seem to lead to an Iranian handover of regional files. The IRB has been holding about $ 70 billion in reserves to keep it from collapsing in the short term, and Iran still has a good deal of paperwork. The ball is still on the pitch and the final result has yet to be announced.

The crisis has had repercussions on the Iranian street. The sharp decline in the value of the Toman necessitated the interference of the security forces, the raids on the exchange market in central Tehran and the arrest of dozens of accused of manipulating the money market. 

The Iranian government resorted to increasing the tax rate for travelers outside the republic. After the travel tax of 70 tomans paid at the time of leaving Iran for the first time, it became 220 tomans, the second passenger paid 320 tomans, the third one reached 440 tomans, and the Iranian Altman reached 490 in the currency market. And 420 in banks 

Observers believe that the only hope for the Iranian economy to overcome this crisis is the continued relative stability of oil prices, but the possibility of continuing social unrest and the intensification of sanctions could easily eliminate the economic benefits of stable oil prices.
Economic Studies Unit

Link Center for Research and Strategic Studies    link

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.