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Thursday, April 5, 2018

FUZE UPDATE , 5 APRIL



Fuze: A number of Dinarians over the last month had already started to anticipate an after election public release of the RI, for various reasons. Some because on average election season in any democracy has a destabilizing affect, even in the so called "developed nations". Other's due to rumors. The former considered the following:

There has always been a few issues of primary consideration expressed in public by high level CBI officials regarding the RI timing, starting with Dr. Shabibi. 1. Inflation (2-4%). 2. Reserves and Debt ratio balance. 3. Political Stability. 1 and 2 are CBI controlled issues and are good to go; but number 3, well? Maybe subjective? 

Historically, countries making major moves with their currencies, have used a ruse to throw speculators off the trail. Similar to what Iraq posted yesterday about holding off the release until after the elections.

Speculators are major concerns during the process. Their dilemma is, they must inform and educate their citizens about the new currency and at the same time, minimize speculation; hence they normally use a ruse to accomplish that task.

Kuwait used an assassination story. Other nations used uprisings to bank collapses. 

Here is my point. A nations ruse needs to be as convincing as its reputation. By that standard, Iraq could use just about anything!

Kuwait (ex. only; different type Gov) could never get away with something so flimsy. Especially after telling and showing the citizens less than two weeks prior; they were releasing lower notes in the coming days, knowing full well election season was upon them in the coming days!

Also $30 billion on hold at the WB waiting on a rate, needed to start rebuilding, after the most devastating war in it's modern history.

A PM up for reelection, needing more than last years war to insure victory...pretty flimsy ruse to me; but when it comes to Iraq, who knows, it could work, or God forbid the ruse could be true!

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