Monday, September 21, 2015


Hello Everyone. Today I come to you once again to see what sense we can all make out of this RV saga of the Iraqi dinar.
I wish I had more of the good news from the previous couple weeks. Just unbelievable last couple weeks. We will see what this week brings us.
So today let me address a couple questions that are on everyone’s minds.
What is really happening in Iraq and why did the country deteriorate so much over the Maliki administrations (during his 8 years)? How does this impact our current situation to get an RV sooner than later?
Again it is along read but essential information is you are wondering why the RV is being stalled for so long. So you might want to print it out, get a strong cup of java and sit back in your cozy arm chair. It’s going to be an excellent and informative news letter today.
Remember we still await news from these last reform laws and we know how close they are to completion.
Since it comes up now in many of the articles, I want to point out to everyone that the Moslum holiday Eid al-Adha is a four day holiday and runs from 9/24 to 9/27 this year. The impact should have little to none on getting legislation thru Iraqi parliament. Unlike me most don’t even believe the laws matter anyhow so what’s the point…..lol……lol…
By the way “lol” is “laugh out loud” in case you don’t know.

Today’s News
Today is Monday September 21th and still no RV.  Many so called intel “gurus” told you to watch for this past weekend and here we sit once again disappointed on Monday morning. Why?
I have told you that come mid September we would be in an excellent window for the RV. These “gurus”  simply took this window from my news letters  and used it to find something, some event to justify it for their own self purposes.
Instead they should be studying Iraq and learning truly why I said mid September could be a good starting point to begin to see some positive results. I have tried in past news letters over the last many months to point out these events to you. I did not see them telling you. Why?
Because they are not concerned about helping you understand Iraq’s situation and just want to hype you up and make you feel good. They luv their roller coaster ride….lol….
I also stated in my news letter last week that if Iraq DID NOT complete what it had to complete on time and so the PTB will not RV. They will not RV until these needed laws are in place and at least partially implemented (as required). So why all the hype then for this weekend?
You tell me because I just do not understand the madness behind what these intel “gurus” told  you last week. I really do not understand. Don’t they know anything about what is really happening in Iraq and why it could not even remotely begin to RV this past weekend?
So let’s get to the news and start this week off the right way. I think its going to be a good week.
First I have to clean up the mess once again left behind from these so called intel “gurus” and from all their  hype over this past weekend. It’s Monday again and many are depressed that there is no RV.
Many of these gurus were saying that Iraq reduced the salaries because they wanted to RV and the new value would over inflate their salaries if they did not first reduce them. Their logic also told us then after the RV they would be adjusted to the right pay scale. Iraq then announced that they would pay the salaries on Sunday 9/20 and so once again they took an ounce of truth and turned it into their own intel and timeline. They told you the RV must then happen this past weekend if they were to pay the salaries. Really?
So why have they then paid the salaries and we see no RV? Same old hype and misunderstanding the events in Iraq. We see this over and over again. They used this same event last month too to hype you all up. Did you not learn your lesson then? So why do you still listen to their calls and their nonsense? Will this ever stop and these so called intel “gurus” buckle down and learn what is really happening in Iraq so they can have informative conference calls?
I will say it one more time – The reduction in salaries has NOTHING absolutely NOTHING to do with the RV! Not this past weekend, not next month…NEVER !
This is what Iraq IS DOING with these salaries:
They simply are trying to scale everyone to a fair and honest, standard government pay scale. This is unlike what the Maliki administration was doing with favoritism, perks and political hijacking using positions of influence as a carrot to support his corruption. It was a mess.
In the process they are also trying to save lots of money.  Folks they are  in an economic crisis (just in case you don’t know) and are having trouble finding the funding to pay these salaries and pay them on time.
The following article is telling us this and so once again I am telling you. Read it for yourselves. – just the FACTS, no HYPE or RUMORS.  Their words not mine!
Article Follows:


Baghdad, September 20 (Petra) –
Iraqi parliamentary revealed that the operating budget of the state is threatened not to pay employees if oil prices remained below the high.
And MP Ali al-Badri said in a press statement on Sunday that the government suffers from many Mchaclat are an obstacle to the implementation of reforms, notably the security and economic situation.
He added that oil prices are falling versus large numbers of staff within the operating budget, and if oil prices stay on the religious Iraqi government will not be able to pay salaries in the coming months.
But the parliamentary finance committee member Masood Haider confirmed that the employees ‘salaries for the remaining months of this year locked, and there is no indication that the risk of employees’ salaries, the state will be covered by insurance salaries. Iraqi state and relies on building the annual financial budget by about 95% on imports of oil exported to international markets, which constitutes a unilateral source of danger to the country’s situation
Article Ends
Article Begins:
BAGHDAD – Iraq-Presse – September 21 / Sptbmr: The Ministry of Education confirmed that the guarantee of its cadres in the pay of the usurped the provinces of Nineveh, Anbar, Salah al-Din is a priority uncompromising as affecting thousands of families live source and strengthen their association with the central government.
The ministry revealed in a statement received / Iraq Press / copy of it, “she continued, and during the last term to address the official authorities, particularly the Ministry of Finance to ensure the past months to the people of those provinces the distribution of salaries.”
And between general education Nineveh manager, Taha Faloa, that “the pressure exerted by the Minister of Education and correspondence frequent subject of his parents’ salaries in Nineveh resulted in the approval of the Ministry of Finance cadres of Education for the province of Nineveh pay the salaries for the months of June and July,” adding that “salaries will be distributed after the Eid holiday by Commissions specialized financial subject “.
Article Ends
Next I want to bring you an article, that to me, just about sums up where Iraq is today and where they need to go.
I will let you read it for yourselves. It is a long read but you should take the time to read it and digest it. Maybe read it a couple times.
Once you do read it you too will see how ridiculous it was for anyone to say they would RV over this past weekend. However I will say if they can work out the details on four key issues – National Guard law, the Investment Law, Judicial Reforms, the Amnesty law and the controlling physical security situation we will be a great time position afterwards to possibly see some upward movement in the currency value.
How many article must we read from economists and financial ministry officials in Iraq giving us solutions to this currency reform dilemma. So we know they don’t yet have the answer of what to do.
All possible solutions but nothing from the CBI officially. Oh – did I not also tell you they must clean up the CBI too prior to any RV? We are now seeing movement in this direction too. They can not simply dismiss the proxy governor and replace him with Dr Shabibi. It is not that simple and many of us looking into Iraq from the outside do not understand the influence Maliki and his goons still have and will continue to have until the Iranian support and  influence is under control. When this happens they will deal with him, I can assure you of this. The last thing they need now is a civil war.
Iranian influence is a HUGE problem for Iraq and the USA. If they do not control this influence it will plague Iraq forever and now it the time to correct it Pay attention to this in the article below. Also pay attention to the fact that the USA is once again sending massive buildup of combat troops in Iraq.
They do not want to occupy Iraq again nor do they want to have to send troops back years from now. It is a balancing act. When the USA left Iraq in late 2011 it left a huge void. Iraq, under Saddam Hussein, kept Iran under check prior to 2003. While the USA occupied Iraq from 2003-2011 they too kept Iran under check. So after the pullout who was going to check and control Iran in Iraq?
The answer lies of course in the 100+ million trained Iraqi soldiers (trained by the USA military) and the plan to rebuild an Iraqi airforce, etc. The problem Iraq now faces stems from the 8 years of Maliki when his administration could not be trusted with a buildup of military power and weapons from the west. The plan fell apart. Maliki would surely have used these weapons against the Kurds and to support an increasing Iranian influence and more terrorism. We witnessed the ability of the leadership and strength of the Iraqi forces in what happened in Mosul in June 2014.
So the cause of the dilemma Iraq now faces with Iran, could have been avoided if the USA did not support Maliki but instead supported a candidate with a track record more conducive the long term goals of the USA and its allies. The overall plan to rearm Iraq may have worked if followed through. They would have had a better trained army to repel ISIS and to prevent the Iranian militias from taking over. They need to correct this situation NOW!  They know it and Abadi is working hard to do it with very limited resources.
But it is premature to say it is corrected already. Besides the terrorism and the Iranian influence now that Iraq faces is also amplified by this recent economic crisis (by the drop in oil prices).

The RV will not solve this crisis as many say. Instead it is like being stuck in the snow storm buried in snow (as from my previous analogy). Where do you go? Where can you go without fixing some fundamental issues now facing Iraq.
An RV in fact would only make the situation worsen leaving yet more squandered wealth to support terrorism and money laundering to Iran and ISIS. These are the areas of concern and we all should be paying attention to them.
The RV is the end result not the solution in itself. Can the situation be corrected in a timely manner?
Yes –it could,  but it will take military strategies on the part of the USA and its allies. Personally I do not feel the current Obama administration will have the guts to commit to the strategies needed to do the job that needs to be done in the middle east. So it will also take the Abadi administration’s reforms and for him to stand firm on anti-Iranian influence in Iraq. It will take the Arab countries themselves to stand up unite under the GCC and for the Arab way of life and the great wealth they can acquire as a unified council.
If this does not occur we may have to wait for another (probably a Republican president) to take more fortitude and increase USA and allies  presence once again in the middle east against ISIS and the extreme terrorists.
So for all you so called intel “gurus” reading this news letter today I want also to say that I do not rely solely on news article for my news letters. I have resources beyond what anyone of you can begin to imagine. I am one of the few information sources for you investors that was actually in Iraq and Kuwait during the wartime.
I read the intelligence reports and gathered this information. I feel for the people and I am fully aware of the political situation. I still maintain many contacts in the military and in the Iraqi and USA government. So I wish all of you that are guessing would just learn to listen to what I have to say. It would bring you much more credibility and good standing on your conference calls.
Iraq knows they need to do something with the currency value and they know they need to do it quickly. But they are in a dilemma now. Dammed if they do RV and dammed if they don’t RV. Do you understand?

I believe they are now targeting RV by Oct 1st.
But it is just a target date. If we do not see something by then ( I hate to say it) but we may be going into 2016 and have to wait for a changeover of command in the USA Whitehouse.
Why do I say 2016 (but conditionally)?
I am saying this because they have less than two weeks to accomplish the remaining laws and these laws have been under dispute now for months.
They have two weeks to push ISIS out of Mosul and Anabar regions and in general contain them. Can they complete these issues and implement them on time?
Personally with their track record I am inclined to say no, but lately they seem to be working miracles so who really knows.
So we watch and wait.
We read the news, we listen to contacts and we try to understand. We use our common sense to make sense of it all and then bring it to you. I hope you all appreciate it.
Article Begins:
SEPT. 18, 2015

September 18, 2015:
In Iraq the Shia militias, many of them with Iranian advisors, are increasingly being seen as a problem by the new Iraqi government and Iraqis in general. The previous Maliki government had long worked closely with Iran but lost power because Maliki and his allies would not do anything about the corruption that is largely seen as the main reason ISIL made such rapid advances in 2014.
Iraqis are discovering, as the anti-corruption efforts now accelerate, that a lot of that corruption, especially in the military, was encouraged, and sometimes paid for, by Iran. This has caused public opinion among the majority Shia Arabs in Iraq to turn against Iran. Another reason for that is the Iran supported (and often armed and paid) Shia militiamen are seen as fanatics and undisciplined who are mainly loyal to Iran. These Shia militiamen are largely motivated by revenge (for years of Islamic terrorist attacks on Shia civilians) and their Iranian advisors encourage that.
The Iran backed Shia militias are now seen as a potential threat to the Iraqi government. While the Shia militiamen have less training they are more fanatics and undisciplined. To the Americans the biggest risk is the Shia militiamen terrorizing (kidnapping, murdering, looting and so on) Sunni civilians in areas ISIL (al Qaeda in Iraq and the Levant) is driven out of. The Americans realize that the key to regaining control of Anbar is gaining the support of the Sunnis (who comprise nearly all the Anbar population).
Iran is not happy with this new attitude. It got worse recently when Iraq got its first few F-16s into service. While being used mainly for attacking ISIL on the ground, the F-16s can also use air-to-air missiles and the Iraqi pilots can go after Iranian cargo aircraft transiting Iraqi airspace on their way to Syria and force them to land or turn back. Iraq could never do this before and Iran was able to pretty much use Iraqi air space for these flights without any fear of the transports being threatened. Iraq has always tolerated this Iranian use of Iraqi airspace to rapidly supply the Assad government in Syria. Iraq did this despite constant pressure from the United States to block the Assad aid. Now the Iraqis are paying more attention to their American allies than their Iranian neighbors.
The Iraqi Army and Shia militias continue advancing slowly against ISIL in central (towards Mosul) and western (Anbar Province) Iraq. The advance is so slow that there are doubts about any progress at all and some accusations that ISIL is actually in more areas now than at the beginning of the year, despite thousands of air strikes. The main problem is the difficulty in obtaining accurate data about what is happening on the ground. As the government gains access and then control of more territory more is revealed about what is going on there. Turns out that in late 2014 the government abandoned a lot more territory than ISIL took control of.
This sort of chaos is common in Iraq and the region. A lot of it has to do with the culture of corruption. This highlights another problem. As ISIL has become less of a problem (stalemated or put on the defensive) this year another revolution has appeared. This uprising is about the endemic corruption that has long crippled Iraq (and the region). The popular anger about the corruption has been growing for decades and became a real threat once democracy was introduced in 2004.
Now there are regular (usually Friday, the start of the “weekend” in Moslem majority nations) and the government has been forced to act. In addition to firing hundreds of corrupt officials the government has also rushed to be more frank, prompt and honest in reporting the state of the war with ISIL. That means admitting that problems exist.
The military leadership is still a mess as is that portion of the military responsible for keeping the fighting troops supplied. The government never liked to admit that the military was corrupt and incompetent, but the Iraqi people can find detailed reports of this on the Internet and in a growing number of Iraqi media outlets. It is no longer forbidden to report the unpleasant truth. It can still be dangerous, especially if you talk about Iran backed Shia militia. The upshot of more information is the confirmation of what American advisors and trainers have been saying for over a decade; it takes time to find and train competent officers.
An even more unpopular bit of advice was warnings about the impact of corruption. It is now generally accepted that once the Americans left in 2011 the unsurprisingly corrupt Iraqi politicians began replacing competent officers with more corrupt ones who were believed more concerned with politics than in running an effective army. That was the major reason why ISIL advanced so quickly in mid-2014.
Most Iraqis now accept this rather than the usual “it’s all because of a foreign conspiracy” excuse that is so popular throughout the region. All this openness and honesty does not solve the leadership problems in the military and government, but does allow a fix to proceed more quickly. There is still some resistance to replacing incompetent officers, usually from politicians who sponsored those officers. There is still fear of another civil war between Shia political factions and politicians feel safer if they “own” a few senior commanders.
That is an ancient tradition in this part of the world and such long-standing practices are not easily changed.
Meanwhile ISIL is also having leadership and morale problems. Popular resistance in ISIL occupied areas, especially Mosul and western Iraq, is growing despite ever more arrests and executions.
In Mosul there are apparently dozens (at least) of executions each week. Some of the victims are ISIL members accused of failure, misbehavior, bad attitude or trying to desert. Sources in the city report that a growing number of ISIL men are fleeing the city, often semi-officially by claiming they are needed in Syria.
Civilians can still get in and out of the city because ISIL needs trade with the outside to survive in this huge metropolis. Intelligence analysts can take large numbers of reports and sift through them to determine what is true and what is rumor or lies. This is easier to do with computerized databases and special software. In addition the Americans have brought back their aerial electronic monitoring capabilities, which adds more data to the pool
and makes it even easier to separate fact from fiction.
In 2011 the more astute Iraqi commanders tried to convince their political bosses that the loss of these intel capabilities (the Americans would take it all with them) would be dangerous. The politicians were not convinced then but most are now.
A lot of the results of this intel collection and analysis are not released. This is done to prevent the enemy from figuring out exactly where a lot of the intel is coming from and how it is analyzed. If you know that you can more effectively deceive the intel effort. Many of the ISIL leadership are former officers in the pre-2003 Iraqi military and know how this stuff works (often courtesy of Russian military schools).
The intel also shows that the same opportunities for destroying Sunni Islamic terrorists are available now as they were in 2007. Back then the Americans convinced the Shia controlled government to make deals with Sunni tribes to get Sunni support to crush Sunni Islamic terror groups. Many Shia opposed this (and many still do) but it worked then and after the Americans left the Shia politicians dismantled the rewards (jobs, political opportunity and money) that were part of the deal. History is repeating itself with most Sunnis now hostile to the Sunni Islamic terrorists (ISIL this time instead of al Qaeda in 2007). ISIL is even more unpopular with most Sunnis than al Qaeda was back in 2007.
But the Sunnis feel trapped between ISIL savagery and Iran-backed Shia militias and politicians who feel they are engaged in a war between Shia and Sunni. While most Iraqi Shia want no part of this enough of them do, and belong to Iran supported militias, to give credence to Sunni fears. The American military advisors are trying to get American diplomacy behind an effort to persuade the Iraqi government to make a convincing offer to the Sunnis and get another 2007 going.
Meanwhile ISIL shows signs of collapsing from a combination of internal disputes and declining morale. In rural areas the locals are increasingly organizing armed militias and waging guerilla, or open warfare with ISIL. This may seem suicidal but the tribes have centuries of experience with this sort of thing and when they detect that the “occupier” is stretched thin and vulnerable, the tribal militia becomes a popular and effective option. ISIL understands this and informally grants autonomy in these situations.
There is a downside as if ISIL makes another resurgence and becomes capable of suppressing the autonomous tribes the retribution can be brutal. This has already happened a few times in the last year in eastern Syria and western Iraq. But the tribes are always attuned to what is going on in their territory and more tribes are detecting a decline in the ISIL ability to crack down on disobedient tribes, especially heavily armed and determined
The Iraqi Army has about 10,000 troops in Anbar and nearly as many Shia militiamen. The main problem with this forces is the lack of good leaders and troop support (maintenance and logistics). These are the things the Kurds have taken care of but that the Arab Iraqis still have problems with. Thus the Iraqi Arabs are much less effective against ISIL than the Kurds or Western troops.
The American advisors have convinced the Iraqi generals that an advance is possible but only if carried out slowly and methodically, using the few units with competent leaders (battalion and brigade commanders) to lead the way. There is still a shortage of reliable unit commanders.
The U.S. has about 2,000 troops in Anbar to train and advise Iraqi soldiers, police and pro-government tribal militias. Most of these troops were at al Asad airbase (in eastern Anbar) but more are being west, closer to ISIL occupied Ramadi and the main ISIL forces. Iraqis handle security for these bases but American troops take part in the fighting when needed. More American troops are being seen out in the countryside with Iraqi troops. There are about 5,000 ISIL gunmen in Anbar and most of them were originally recruited from local tribes.
These constant defeats at al Asad and in the two major cities (Ramadi and Fallujah) have been bad for morale, and many, if not most of the local hires have deserted and taken with them useful information on where ISIL stores its weapons and other important stuff. More of these sites are being bombed even though they are, from the air, just another building with nothing special going on around it.
The locally recruited tribesmen (especially those on the ISIL payroll) were also unhappy with the ISIL policy of kidnapping tribal elders and killing them or holding them for ransom (money or cooperation from tribal chiefs). A lot of the local tribesmen working for ISIL are related to some of the elders kidnapped or murdered by ISIL and that bad treatment is not appreciated.
ISIL needs some victories in Anbar but is having a hard time making that happen. In the meantime ISIL makes what it can of the fact that they still occupy Ramadi and the Iraqi Army advance is not moving much at all. American officials say they believe Ramadai will be retaken by the end of the year. Such claims are often based on intel that is not available to the public. But sometimes these claims are just wishful thinking. There’s a lot of that going around.
In the north the Kurds continue to push south but are hampered by a shortage of troops. The problem is that protecting Kurdish controlled northern Iraq requires a lot trained and reliable people and takes priority. There is a long border and ISIL is always trying to get in or at least cause casualties among the border guards. One reason for the Kurdish success is that their military leaders look after their troops and don’t expose them to needless danger.
September 15, 2015: Iraqis are alarmed at recent media reports that Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani recently made a second visit to Moscow. This comes after Iran and Russia insisting that a July 24th visit by Soleimani to Moscow did not happen. During the July trip Soleimani was said to have met with Russian defense officials and left after two days.
Since 2007 Soleimani has been under numerous sanctions, including ones that are not being lifted by the July 14th Iranian peace deal. Soleimani was not supposed to be able to travel to Russia and Russia knows it. But Russia and Iran simply deny the visits actually happened, the same way Iran denies that Soleimani has spent time in Iraq supervising the creation and use of pro-Iran Shia militias.
September 7, 2015: Several hundred Turkish troops entered northern Iraq in pursuit with some PKK Kurdish separatists believed involved in a roadside bomb attack in Turkey the day before that killed 16 soldiers. The Turks have been fighting the PKK again (after a ceasefire collapsed) since late July. So far about 200 people have been killed, nearly a hundred of them Turkish soldiers and police.
September 3, 2015: Iraqi F-16IQ fighter-bombers carried out their first combat missions against several ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) targets. This comes 16 months after the F-16IQ made its first flight. Four F-16IQs arrived in Iraq in July so that Iraqi pilots and maintainers could undertake final training in preparation for the first combat missions. The F-16IQ is a custom version of the single seat Block 52 F-16C and the two-seater F-16D. Iraq has 36 F-16IQs on order.
The F-16IQ is similar to American Block 52 F-16s except they are not equipped to handle AMRAAM (radar guided air-to-air missiles) or JDAM (GPS guided bombs). The F-16IQ can handle laser guided bombs and older radar guided missiles like the AIM-7.
September 2, 2015: In Baghdad 17 Turkish construction workers and their Iraqi (Kurdish) translator were kidnapped by a Shia militia. The kidnappers demanded that Turkey stop the flow of ISIL recruits into Iraq, halt the flow of Kurdish oil via Turkey and do something to end the ISIL siege of several Shia villages in Syria (near the Turkish border) in exchange for the hostages. On the 11th the kidnappers released a video of the prisoners pleading for help from their government.
On the 16th two of the Turks were released in Basra, near the Kuwait border. The Iraqis government says it is negotiating to get the rest of the Turks released. Meanwhile the two major Shia clerics in Iraq have condemned the kidnapping and apparently helped the government make contact with the previously unknown Shia group responsible. There are many radical Shia Iraqis who are hostile to Sunnis (for all the al Qaeda and ISIL violence against Shia) and Kurds (for not being Arab and
for not obeying the Shia government).
Article Ends

[Update: Fighting ISIS / DAASH]
I wanted to give you an up-to-date on the fighting ISIS situation since it is one of those issues in dealing with the physical aspects of security that Iraq now faces prior to any RV. In the article that preceded this one below they talked about the F16’s and trained pilots Iraq now has obtained and the balance it may bring to the war on ISIS and keeping Iran in check. It talks about the USA and coalition forces now in Iraq and the impact they may have. It is all good news and heading in the right direction.
Article Begins:
U.S. SOLDIERS HAVE ARRIVED AT A CAMP IN NORTHERN IRAQ in preparation for an assault on Daesh-held Mosul, a member of the Iraqi parliament’s security and defense committee said Saturday.
Nayef al-Shammari said 90 troops arrived at the base in Makhmur, southwest of Iraq’s Kurdish capital Erbil, and the “Iraqi government and Mosul town council will decide whether they join the Mosul operation or not.”
The Pentagon denied the claim. “As we’ve long said, U.S. troops are not in a combat mission in Iraq,” a spokesman said. “U.S. forces are there for train, advise and assist missions.”
However, Shammari told Anadolu Agency the troops would be “steered by the operation units established by the Iraqi government, Kurdish Regional Government and coalition forces.”
Mosul, Iraq’s second city, was captured by Daesh in June last year. An attempt to retake the Mosul has been anticipated for months as Shia militia, Kurdish Peshmerga and Iraqi government forces have closed in on the city.
Author: Can Erözden
Article Ends
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All.

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