Friday, January 9, 2015


TNT Call notes 9-Jan-2015
Tony:  Good morning, TNT!  Today is Friday, January 9, 2015.  As Ray said, this is Fabulous Friday of Financial Feasibility!  We are here, we don’t want to be here, but I’m still enthused and excited about what DC is going to tell us. We’ll talk about what should have happened and what we believe is about to happen. 
DC:  In Iraq, they are very ready and eager to get this thing done.  They have finished the budget, although there are articles that say the second reading on Saturday.  In fact, they did that on Wednesday.  The CBI, Finance ministry, IMF reps and Parliament is all ready, with lots of articles about how they are ready to get this done. Everything else in Iraq is going well.  Television and newspapers all talk about economic reform, and how well the Sunnis and Shi’as are playing together, with conversations between PM ABadi and key Kurds, with Sunnis and Shi’as together.  Iraq is quite ready security-wise;  nothing much has changed since Wednesday.  They are absolutely ready to get this done!
Tony:  Bottom line is… Iraq has done everything they are supposed to do, regardless of whatever articles you are reading that are 2-3 days behind what has occurred. Our sources say the votes have already been taken and passed.  On Monday, the schedule was for this to happen Wednesday noon, no later than Thursday at noon (EST). That is what THEY wanted to do because they did everything required. They were stopped, because someone wanted to review everything, and then someone (in the US) said, “I need you to wait on an announcement.”  Seriously?! 
DC:  It’s confusing with different interpretations. They seem to be saying “You can go ahead and RI, but don’t make an announcement until I say so.” So now the banks are wondering what to do!
Tony:  They are saying, “You can go ahead and RI, because the cards are already showing $3.58.”  We are letting certain people use them internationally, so you have already done the RI.  And now you’re saying I can RI to the rest of the country but not announce it to the rest of the world?  Who does that make sense to?  They are told they can RI but not announce it until the US agreed to it – even though they agree that Iraq has done everything. 
DC:  You can see the confusion and frustration. The US is blandly saying “Well, we told them to RI;  why are you mad at us?”  And they are being told they cannot have it both ways.  We don’t have a timeline on the agreed announcement time. We don’t have that.
Tony:  Then we have to go back to the history of the last four years, and see what makes sense. We are just waiting for the witching hour, when it makes sense to the financial world, where it would have the least effect on Forex or the markets, I guess.
DC: When they originally did the plans, they wanted it Thursday evening US, and Friday morning a the mosque. Another time is Friday night in the US, after the evening news dump.  Lots of money movement takes place at that time. Another good time is Saturday night, which is the quietest time in the world.  However, we don’t have direct information, so we just don’t know.  Iraq just wants this done, and we’re not looking for this before sundown in Iraq, because it is the holy day.  However, it’s sundown there now.
Tony:  ISX is still scheduled to open on Sunday and Iraq wants this 3-4 days before then. Now we are waiting for --- who knows what?
DC:  Why doesn’t Iraq just announce this, and let the US hang itself.  It’s a confidence game;  the US could really shake confidence in the dinar by blocking this, so it’s important to have the G8 and G20 behind this. They need the US to abide by this decision, no matter how painful we make it.
In the USA, exchanges are cranking back up, but not at the previous pace because some banks are full and others are handling friends and family.  Some are just prepping now.  Many banks were told on Wednesday to expect it at any time, any hour. They are extremely ready.  The UST is ready, technically and procedurally.  The main question is who in the administration is discussing the exact timeline here.  We know who it is but not what time they are driving towards.  We all want to make sure this is executed perfectly.
Tony:   ISX opens 9.30 Monday morning.  Iraq said they wanted 3-5 days before then. They could drag it to the last minute, I guess….
DC:  The ISX is just the Iraqi stock market. They want their stocks to reflect the new prices.
Tony:  The ISX was supposed to reopen on the 15th, and they pushed it to the 11th.  Only this morning, we heard it might be moved back to the 15th;  that is not confirmed though.  If it is confirmed, I’ll tweet it out after the call.
I was smoking cigars last night, and this guy said, “Tony, you’re right!  How often do you hear that?” and I said, “A hundred times a day!” The banks only have managers in;  they should get their schedules over the weekend, is what we are told.  [Quick break for text]
DC:  If anyone wonders if we are rehearsed, now you know we do not!  I’m curious if that rate is pounds sterling, because that would relate to what I’ve heard. We converted it to USD, and it’s the higher rate.  I agree.  This is embarrassingly live, folks.  Tony?
Tony:  A guy in London just completed his exchange a few minutes ago, a good source who thought he would exchange last Monday.  The rate is live in London, and it could still be only selected clients, but they started calling people in.  He thinks it’s going to be a great weekend for everybody.  That was live, in the moment!  It’s what we expect and hope for, that it might happen this weekend.  That  is not sure, because we also heard that they might be doing private exchanges again.  Why would they do that if they don’t anticipate this in a few days?  Just let everyone go!  Maybe they are doing it because Iraq and England are doing it, so why can’t our banks pick some people?   We probably won’t know until we get come information this evening, but I didn’t want to delay this call.
DC:  Iraq wanted to get this done two nights ago, and the US said they can RI now, but asked them to hold off on the announcement.  What?!  Our friends are saying that some exchanges are doing through, specifically in London.
248 caller:  First time caller!  CJ101 in chat [Appreciation, at great length]  About taxes:  I gather the powers are considering what to do, and I’d like to make a few comments.  Please make sure that we have equal treatment under the law.  If I exchange today there are no taxes.  [No true.]  Because this is a once-in-history event, are we going to be taxed the same way that those exchanging in 2013 were? The RV didn’t happen then, but they knew the RV didn’t happen when they created that situation. Will history see that we were treated fairly?  There are new taxes in place now, instituted since then, and capital gains tax levels are higher.
DC:  You said it more eloquently than I could.  Right now, we are looking at long term and short term cap gains.  If it’s not negotiated as part of the contract rate, expect that cap gains is what you will pay.  That is the recommendation to several tax committees. Some folks didn’t pay that high under special scenarios. That’s for the committees to rule on.  I like your lines a lot better than mine.
Caller:  I do have one question for both of you. What charity or cause would you like us to donate to in your honor?  My husband and I also want to set up an inter-city playground.
Tony:  I’m all for helping kids, because I like to give them the best things going. Building a playground would be great, and it doesn’t have to be in my name.  Thanks for everything you said;  it’s good to know someone understands why we are doing this.
DC:  Anything for kids would be great.  Knowing someone understands what we here for makes it all work it. We are not gaining anything out of this;  we hope we are helping. 
Tony:  The last couple of days we have been getting messages about groups, including an old one that is open to new members. We know they have been wanting to get these groups through first.  Some got taken advantage of with low rates.  If we are this close, why would they be trying to solicit people for new groups?
DC: They are smelling blood in the water.
Tony:  Why would the US be soliciting new groups?
DC:  We understand that the US is wrapping up these groups as quickly as possible.  We know that the groups will make money from the difference between the rate they receive and what they pay out.
Tony: We don’t know about the new groups;  one existing group seems to be gathering in new members.  People have asked me what to do, and I wouldn’t do it because I don’t trust those people based on past information.
323 caller:  I love that caller’s acknowledgment of you and what you do!  All of my money is going into a trust.  Is it important to have different banks if uou have a well-protected trust.
DC:  My money is in trust as well.  The more money you have, the more important it is to have it spread out, within reason – not ten different accounts.  What if a bank employee goes crazy and focuses on high-level accounts?  It’s like any security issue – if two accounts make you comfortable, or five, go for that. 
Tony:  The trust protects you OUTSIDE the banking system.
DC: We aren’t lawyers or financial advisers, but it’s about outside rather than inside.  My two trusts have seven accounts between them.  I have a lot of different businesses, and the way I do things is different from most. I am a risk-taking guy, and I want to protect my family.  Some accounts handle conservative investments, and some are for higher risk activity. Also, I have accounts in other countries, because I do business here.  My point is that it’s all spread out.
Caller:  Are you using different insurance companies for different banks?
DC: Good point.  You may have insurance on all your accounts, but if it all goes back to the same point, you have the same risks, so spread that out as well.  My money market accounts are already protects, and CDARS accounts are good as well.  My riskiest accounts are in Africa, so I keep those amounts pretty low.
Tony: I  have a minimum of four banks for investments and long-term deals, with a totally separate account (and separate computers) for my day-to-day accounts.  I will insure all accounts with Lloyds of London, especially my accounts overseas.
Caller:  If this RIs, will that only be the dinar?
DC: The RI vs RV is mainly Shabibi’s doing.  He is back in the game and has changed some of the verbiage. Regardless, whenever the massive rate change comes in Iraq, then all four currencies will change at that time.
Tony:  You could see an RI with all four currencies, then it might hit Forex, run up to 12 dollars, then come back down. Then you could see an RV hit after that!
Caller:  One more quick question, if I may.  I understand both the IQN and VNN have a limit on how much you can have;  is that true of the other two currencies?
DC:  We don’t know of any limit on any of the four currencies.  There may be a cap on the contract rate, but that is only dong and dinar.  Only a few crazy people have the other two!
617 caller:  I have one hundred 1,000 rupiah notes that I want to give to 100 people.  Do I need to give them gift letters? That’s 100 notarized letters!
DC:   You can also send them emails, because that has a date/time stamp on them.  So long as there is evidence that you’ve given them out before the change in valuation. No law requires that these be notarized.  If  you are giving these out AFTER the RV, then you definitely need to get them notarized, and also take advice from a tax attorney.
Tony:  If you wait until afterwards, you will be taxed on all that. 
Caller:  Can’t you give away up to $14,000 as a gift, without tax?
DC:  Yes, but… there will be a lot of generosity going around.  For instance, if a homeless lady gets a lot of gifts, then she will have to file that.
Caller:  I notice that capital gains tax has gone up;  does that affect those exchanging in 2013?  Or is it for us?  Also, if the US is ready to move forward, why are they stalling it?
DC:  Hmmm.  This is a huge deal, and the people working on it are taught to be risk-averse. They are so worried about how history will see this, and they are afraid of taking that final step.  Some are saying that this is such a big deal that is has to be perfect.  But that has had a bad effect on their ability to make decisions.
Tony: There is analysis paralysis, and they are so afraid something will go wrong that now fear is the only thing holding this back – fear that this will blow up in our face somehow.
Caller:  I wish they would get over it, because there are a lot of people in need out here!  If we don’t have the meeting in Vegas, how can I find out where Ray is doing his deal?  I am in Massachusetts, and I’d love to go to his workshop.
Tony:  For some reason, Ray only allows VIPs at his meetings.  <laughter>
Caller:  I’ll be a VIP after this RV!  How can I find out…?
Tony:  I want to go to Vegas, too, so let’s keep pushing that!  We can start a twitter campaign just for Vegas!  <joke>  I’ll give your number to Ray.
310 caller:  I’d like to know if you  have seen the  bank that only deals in sliver and gold…
Tony: Did that come out 2-3 years ago when they tried to change the money over.  Someone in the Dakotas tried to do that.
Caller; You turn in your money and they convert it into silver and gold;  if the silver/gold fluctuates, so does the money in your account.
Tony:  This could be perfectly legitimate, but there is a problem if you are receiving gold certificates, and they may have sold that gold ten times. If I buy gold, I want to keep it in my pocket. Some are asking if the UST still has any gold at all.  I just don’t trust that.
Caller;  Apparently, you can physically view their vaults.
Tony:  I could say “this is your gold”, but I could say the same to the next person!
Caller:  Do you have to do business in a foreign country to take money out of this country?
DC:  No. So long as you report it, you can do whatever you want. The IRS wants to know if you have control of foreign accounts.
Tony:  At one point, a condition of getting the contract rate was to keep it here in the US.
202 caller:  I am so excited to be on this call!  My daughter has a question:  she is buying a house.  If this RVs during this purchase, and if she has to sign an NDA for the contract rate, the bank will still want to know where the money came from.
DC:  If she is doing business with the bank, it shouldn’t be an issue.  Most people will just say that they had speculative investments that paid off.  If they ask specifically, then say that you signed an NDA.  Most people just want to know it’s not stupid money.  Also the bank can give you Clean and Clear Certificates.
Caller:  Can we exchange with the RI or have to wait until the RV?
DC:  As soon as the value changes, if it’s $3 or more, we will exchange.
951 caller:  I hope this is our lucky week!  Is it possible we’ll get this Monday?
DC:  It’s possible for any time from now on, Friday to next week.  Iraq wants to do it now, and we’re waiting on the US to say they can make the announcement.
Caller:  What if they say we have to wait until the 27th?
DC: We don’t know. The US has cleared the RI, free to go, but asked them to hold on for the announcement, and we don’t know what they are waiting for.  We’ve paying extreme attention to this process, they have soled all the issues, and we are just waiting on the announcement and the 800 numbers.
828 caller:  Thanks for the up-to-the-moment information.  You said it may come down to fear in the administration.  Where does Congress come into this, both sides of the aisle? And if the admin has been groomed to be this fearful, how can that change?
DC:  With some many actions they have taken, the administration want to get this done, but want it to be done perfectly.  But nothing is perfect!  You can strive for perfection, you can spend all your time thinking and strategizing, but there will always be issues. They are getting a lot of their fear worked out over the last month or so with their list.  When they pull the trigger, will every bank in Atlanta or Dallas be stormed?  That will always bee a fear. They have worked though some of that, and everyone I’ve talked to says that they is going to happen, they just want it to go as perfectly as possible. There are a few jerks who don’t believe the common people deserve this. The rest want it go but they are gun-shy because of earlier things that didn’t go well. The final two years of any admin are always difficult, plus there has been some dirty work on both sides.
The Senate Democrats were quite aggravated and even incensed that it didn’t go down under their watch. They wanted oversight, but that won’t happen because it’s now rolled over to the other side. They are thinking about the next election and the 24 seats that will be open at the next election so that they can get their committees chairs back. The new Republican Senators are eager to  see this go with the tax, finance and intelligence committees going properly, to prove they can lead and govern, not just be opposed to everything.  On the Republican side in Congress, it’s similar to the Senate – they want to prove they can govern, on whatever issues comes up.  That’s how the blocs are thinking, even if individual members differ. That’s their general approach.
Caller:  So you don’t think the Democrats will get pissed and get in the way?
DC:  No, because this is a Democratic administration.  They are running the show ad listening to their friends. Especially in the spring and summer, the Congress told them to get it done because of the midterms.  The decision comes from the  top;  however, the President has 10,000 things on his plate, and he has to delegate. The personal style matters as well – micro-mangers vs. “let me know when you get it done”.  President Obama likes to delegate more than others;  he’s been particular about some points, but otherwise trusts his administration guys to run the show.
Caller:  As Tony says, if you give them 48 hours, someone else will show up.
719 caller:  My sister wants to know this:  you said that one group is saying it is still there, but you know it isn’t. Is that General64’s group?
Tony:  I cannot confirm or deny.  I think you have a very smart sister.
Caller: We have some stuff coming down to the wire at the end of January.  Do you really think it will come through by then?  We’ve been waiting for over a  year…
Tony:  This is more public than ever, with Iraq saying clearly “you will see economic reform at this time.”  So, no, they cannot drag it out another year.  WE know they have completed the second reading and it has passed.  HCL is in place, the cards have been changed, and also I don’t think the US can continue when yesterday they said every part has been reviewed.  All they can do is request a wait on the announcement.  The shift in power over the last few days means they can now start an investigation or enquiry, because they now have the votes!  Some thought they would get out  of this without questions, but now Congress has the power. You can’t continue stalling and NOT expect something to happen.  If you give them 48 hours… but I’m feeling good about the weekend.  We’ll see what happens.  I do suspect at some point Iraq will say enough, or the people will rise up and say enough, because it has all been done.
DC:  The US knows they can vote ‘no confidence’ and that will really screw things up. They have an effective veto here.  Iraq wants the US not to hate them, at least.  AT the same time, Iraq could eventually kick the  US out of the sandbox. That keeps pressure on the US to get this done.  The US has been successful in requiring this whole list, but now their own allies are saying Uncle, that Iraq has done so much more than expected, and now they should let this go.

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