Monday, January 5, 2015


TNT Call notes 5-Jan-2015

Tony:  Good morning, TNT!  Today is Monday, January 5, 2015.  No way we should be here, but we are here.  We’ll let you know what’s going on and go from there. This is our second call in the new year. 
It could have been an exciting weekend. Iraq wanted to go on Sunday and the US wants them to go on Tuesday, and I wish they could have split the difference and gone today!
DC:  We are looking on 2-3 specific issues now.  Everything was ramped up and ready to go, then they had minor budgetary issues and some other issues with the amnesty laws that didn’t’ appeal to the US.  Iraq put together a proposal that was completed on Friday, and initially everyone (in the US, etc.) agreed but wanted to study and tweak it. They did that on Saturday and Sunday, and we believe they have worked it all out. Why the caveat? Because a few of our sources are assisting and we haven’t heard back from there (as of Sunday midday).  But what’s nice is that other folks we talk to have also said that they have all agreed and we are ramping back up again and getting the whole system ready.  So we believe that the amnesty questions have been solved or close to it.
When they paused it for amnesty, they stopped a lot of things and they have to get a lot of actions started again and ramped back up. They are talking about exact times, running some tests on Sunday night and again today.  We hope they are the final ones, but they have to get these done.
Normally, Iraq notified everyone, the CBI says “we’ll do it in this window” and they run procedural tests to make sure everything still works.  We hope to God this is the final run, and the signals indicate it did get done. We do keep asking if there is any other possible block, and only positive stuff has come back.  I’m being told that I’m nitpicking this too much, and that’s coming from the guys who have been doing the nitpicking in general!
Tony:  it’s basically what we have discussed.  Yes, amnesty IS the issue, because…
DC:  A bunch of Sunnis were wrongly imprisoned by Maliki and US-led forces because of informants and tribal tensions.  Some have been released. There are another 1,000 or so rock-throwers, and they were released as well.  The other aspects are Ba’athist issues under Saddam Hussein that still haven’t been solved;  also, there were two major sticking points that everyone thought were already solved, including Iraq:  what to do with Maliki himself and his more influential followers.  This is about corruption charges, rape and torture centers, and prisons run by these same people.  Some are still in power, so it’s a bit awkward. There are also basically good people who were stuck in a bad spot, having to follow orders or whatever, and it’s really pointless bringing them up before the world court.  Iraq wanted to slap them on the wriest and removed from public service. Iraq doesn’t want the International Court holding major trials with Maliki, and they seem to have worked out a compromise.  Iraq put that on the table Thursday and Friday, the initial view was agreement.  China wants to push this forward, the US said they were good with it, and the Europeans want a few points to be tweaked. They were the ones to study this further, came back with a few recommendations, and everyone agreed.
Why is this important? A ton of money will be flowing to Iraq, and we need to make sure it doesn’t end up in corrupt hands.  It was also a delay tactic by a few people, used to justify these few changes.  Now everyone is back on board, getting things ready.
Tony:  Do you believe them?
DC:  I believe that process was followed, that the US has agreed to the new plan, and that everyone is agreeing to the few modifications by the Europeans. It think we are all nervous in case something else is out there.  I think we are all looking out for anyone jacking this around further. This was a minor issue that really annoyed everyone, and I truly help this is the end of it.  That’s the hesitation – is this the end of it or not?
Tony:  We went through the weekend. Most said that it was resolved.  On Iraqi television right now, they say the budget is being revealed this month, that there are only minor issues that can be resolved in the Cabinet of Ministers. They have already said that once the budget is implemented, the economic reform will follow immediately – this month. That is what the Iraqi people here, and everyone is trying to implement.  We have already been given a date when it is supposed to be implemented, so they are going that far in intel circles, but not to the people.
DC:  In the UK over the weekend, all banks were allowing interbank exchanges, and also to exchange a few more key people. That happened in the UK and a few other European countries. We are assuming that other countries were allowed to do that as well.  I have not heard of exchanges this weekend in the US, but there were in other countries, relating to dinar only, not the other currencies.
Tony:  This is the first time the rates went live in the UK, and it was $3.89 (US).  We know people scheduled to exchange today.  They are anticipating that this is going through.
DC:  We know people in other countries who are scheduled to exchange as well. The amnesty changes were updated on Thursday and Friday, the initial review was positive, they had two rounds of tweaks, and we think it is fine… and this is shown because some people exchanged over the weekend and today in the UK and Europe.  China is pushing this hard now; they are tired of waiting around for this, and they want it to get done now.
In the USA, the banks were told on Friday to ramp up for possibly Tuesday, the earliest the US through they would be ready and Iraq was early. Some banks are ramping up, and others are waiting to see.  Each bank will handle its own exchanges;  some will only get deposits from others.  Some will exchange through the old Bank of Ireland system, which is basically Wells Fargo.  The administration folks are ready, especially after the harsh words said about them after the amnesty delays.  The Senate is sworn in tomorrow, and that is not really relevant, but it does add a bit of pressure on a President who wants to get things done and a Republican Senate that wants to flex its muscles and prove that it can govern.  Why does this matter to the RV?  They might be in magnanimous mode, or at least leaning in more than in the last six years when they have been adversarial. They are looking at each other now rather than throwing things.
Tony:  We did get a time frame from Iraq, and they didn’t say it to their people so I don’t think we should give it out either.  I don’t’ want everyone to get excited, but the word we get is that it will still be this weekend. I’d be shocked if it was released today;  I’m looking for it from Tuesday on.  Unless, of course, someone comes up with a totally different scenario, because this one is done.
503 caller:  Is the plan still an RI first?
DC:  People like to debate if it’s an RI or an RV.  According to Shabibi, a reinstatement restores the dinar to its former level, which would be $3.22 plus inflation.  They can then have an RV later through political forces or just by buying everything off the bottom and forcing it up.  We believe that the contract rates will still apply because they come from another country.  We think the Contract pool will be exhausted by the time the RV comes around.  For years, the RI and RV where synonymous, but Shabibi has gone back to the old RI / RV state. That doesn’t change the situation with China, but the language wasn’t written for an RI.
Caller:  If they go with an RI, will the GCR still happen right away?
DC:  The CGR was originally planned for 5-7 days, although originally they wanted a month.  The flavor of the hour is that they would like at least seven days, but it’s up to the banks if they want to exchange the dinar first and hold the price steady while the dinar goes through.  The other countries that are going to be proper up with the dinar would like all the currencies to go in the same basket, while the banks want to spread it out to get people through the door in an orderly way and spread out the economic impact.
Tony:  Let’s say they RI – rate will be about $3.85.  If the banks give everyone that rate, or even $3.58, who cares it if RVs at all?  On the other hand, if they give me the $3.58, and I know the RV hasn’t happened and it’s going to run up to $6, do I then reinvest?  Am I the catalyst to drive the market up to $12-15?  That’s an option, so I have to think about it.  From that perspective, I would prefer the RI, then the RV, and then I can take international rates and not even sign an NDA.  And if they do the RI and the RV but not the GCR, do I then have some serious options with respect to the other 200 currencies?
DC:  You will have some incredible options, for sure.  You don’t want to micromanage that level of investments, but there will be some terrific options. Some say, “Not if the GCR is a couple of months out…”  However, the market is pretty powerful.  If you hold down those currencies artificially, you cannot hold them for long because the market will naturally force a GCR.  If you hold it down, when you lift your hand, it will pop up, and that is what they want to avoid by having a GCR, which is simply a currency adjustment to the change in value of the Iraqi dinar.
Tony:  They could change the rules.  Is it an option for the banks or trading houses to buy some of these other currencies?  They are going to trade in these currencies! 
DC:  Right – if you aren’t allowed to buy dong, for instance, you can invest in the Vietnamese Stock Exchange.  There are many ways to skin that cat. If they do just one currency at a time, we are going to have a field day!
Tony:  It just doesn’t make sense to me – they should know people are not that stupid!  Where do they get these ideas?
202 caller:  I have some money in reserves, with only one more payment left.  If this happens before I make that payment, does that affect my taxes.
DC:  Yes. We are told that this will go through the normal tax code.  You have to check with your tax attorney as to when the reserves count.  If you have been paying 10% increments, do you ‘own’ 10% at a time?  It makes a difference to the tax you pay.
Caller:  I bought some currency for a friend;  do I need to write a gift letter, or just give them the receipt (because they gave me the money).
DC: You can never go wrong with too much documentation.  Write a notarized letter saying they gave you the money and you bought the currency and gave it to them.
337 caller:  [Appreciation]  How do oil prices affect the value of the RV?
Tony:  It won’t affect us at all because they already have a rate.
Caller:  But it will affect the Middle East, right?
DC:  It will reduce the price of oil there and also in the US.  Most of Iraq’s oil has already been bought by China.  A few other countries will buy the rest, and we don’t know who will buy the natural gas.  If the price goes much lower, they may have to adjust the budget, but that will be long after the RV and our exchanges.
Tony:  Why is China buying all the oil?
DC:  China has about 300,000 barrels per day in their own production.  They are consuming much more than that – they are the biggest consumers out there with relatively little in-country. There are not enough sources left, so they are making a deal with Iraq. Also, with the credits, Iraqi oil is in a sale, so to speak. China has the cash, so they are buying oil at the sale price from Iraq – because they can.
508 caller:  [Appreciation]  What are the rates for the dinar and the dong?  I know $3.58 or so is the RI rate or international rate.  What is the dong rate?  And do they have to wait for Iraq?
DC:  Yes, Iraq is the kingpin, and the other countries have to wait until Iraq is solid. We don’t know how long that will take!  At least you have dinar, so you should be fine.
Tony:  We don’t know what they will do. We do know they are listening to this call, and if we give you ideas or solutions to problems, then they try to ensure that becomes “Mission Impossible”. If we find loopholes, they try to close them.
DC:  They keep changing their minds because they’re adapting to a changing situation.  They are doing the best they can dealing with so many opinions, trying to make this work.
Tony: We do know, but it keeps changing on us (and everyone else).
DC:  In the past, the US was the majority of the delaying tactics, with Iraq as the rest (esp. Maliki and his clan).  Now we are told the US is supporting this getting done now.
508 caller:  How exactly does everything tie to the dinar?
DC: This revaluation and the other change in currencies depends on Iraq having such a vast oil reserves.  So this supports bringing the currency back up to what it was.  When the Obama administration came onboard, and the other countries said, “If you are revaluing Iraq, we’d like to revalue Vietnam” and a few other undervalued countries.  Vietnam has bought a lot of Iraqi dinar;  they weren’t planning to revalue the dong for several years, and because of speculation that was hurting the process, they speeded up the process to catch up with Iraq progress. That’s why Iraq is the foundation…
Tony:  I’m not responsible for any of that!  During the Kuwait war and the Clinton admin the US did the same thing – they suppressed the local currency, revalued it, and that gave the US a surplus and made a lot of people rich. Then they wanted to do the same with Iraq, reducing their debt with the other currencies so that dinar would worth even more, and get those countries out of debt.  The revalued currencies are also part of Basel III, and they are using Iraqi dinar as the foundation of their currency reserves.
Caller:  Christine LaGarde has said twice that there is no such thing as a GCR…
DC:  They say that in public, but behind the scenes it is different.  They have “a long overdue currency alignment to justify BRIC alignment to the modern environment.” That is a GCR.
Caller:  As far as the currency brokers, how soon will the brokers know when this pops?
DC:  It will take less than two minutes. Their sites will go down, they will change the rates, and their sites will come back up. 
Tony:  In the past, they have got memos to prepare for this but it didn’t happen. Travelex has actually shown us the document telling them to get ready for this.
585 caller:  Now that you announced the strategy for us to get uber-wealthy, will they change their plan?
DC:  It’s about how much are you going to micromanage this?  Let’s say this goes tonight, just a hypothetical example.  How long will it take to make an appointment?  How long past that will you receive your cash?   It will take you to Friday at least.   How many of us are 100% ready to implement their plans and strategies?  Not many.  You can also slow down the currency exchanges. Right now, we understand that there is some flexibility in the 7-10 days, and alert people might make more in that time.
Caller:  In the percentage of the internet people, how much of the contract rates are still available?
DC:  When I checked back in April, they had accounted for 35% of the contract pool.  What we don’t know is how that was divided up, and also how much has been used up since 31. October.  A contract rate is anything over $3.58. Some of the contract pool was taken up in 90 cent exchanges, especially churches that exchanged early.  The banks then make money on the spread.
Tony: Now that number is out there, you have to realize that 35% “of the public” could mean 35% of five million, or 35% of Dinarland…
DC:   China was allowed to purchase a trillion dinar for the contract rates so they can get cheap oil. They could then make deals with different groups. However, the deals made a year ago with all those high rates were counted against that pool.  We went to bat because it wasn’t fair to us.  A lot of the dinar had already been purchased, so they came back and said they could do about 35% to ordinary people.  So that implies 350 million dinar would be available.  At first they said that people could exchange as much as they wanted, but in the interest of fairness, they ended up with a cap of 50 million dinar and 50 million dong.  That allows more people to have access to the contract rates.  There may have been some arm-twisting gong on to get those results.
Caller:  There is an article saying that the budget will be finalized on the 20th. Is that just to keep the waters calm, or will it really go that long?
DC: They are just as impatient as we are.  They are saying “Come on, let’s do this!”
Caller:  If this administration would do more to help those us invested in this rather than keeping it from us, that would really help the USA. [Appreciation]  I am sure that if you weren’t here helping us, you could have exchange by now!
602 caller:  I know that influential people in the US and Iraq are listening, and I want to tell Iraq NOT to listen to the US; we’ve have 100 years to get this country right and we have more homeless than you do.  Iraq, make your country strong by yourself.  US, keep your nose out of other people’s business.  If some people have already exchanged four currencies, how can they NOT have all four go at the same time?
DC:  How can all these people be paid already and them not have the GCR? Lately, since October 31st, the Central Bank of Iraq where allowed to give credit to the banks, just as the banks will credit us. That process started then, and you could argue that the RI has already happened.  For the dong, zim, and rupiah, their governments are giving forward based contracts based on the anticipated change in value of those purchases.  Some very wealthy individuals are buying these currencies at a discounted rate.  Forward based contracts are rich people or entities making a speculative play, and that has been going for a year up until 31. October, 2014 for the dinar.  There is advantageous for the banks, and they hide it through making people sign NDAs.  That puts pressure on all sides to actually do the RV and the GCR. People will not be happy if there is a clawback on that money, and they don’t anticipate that happening.
Caller:  I do hope this current window is very small, without Acts of God to interfere.
Tony:  The window is open for more than an hour, so who knows?
601 caller:  DC mentioned most areas with military bases will have exchange centers.  I live right out Camp Shelby – is that big enough to have an exchange center there?
DC: I think the bank on base will;  I don’t know if they will allow non-military to use it. Otherwise, check for tier one banks in your area, especially Wells Fargo.
Caller:  You also said that we might just pay regular capital gains, long and short term. What percentage would that be, and will they use your current tax bracket?
DC:  Long-term capital gains is over a year, and the federal rate is 23.8% I think, plus state income tax.  Short-term is under a year, and federal rate is 28% plus state tax.
Caller:  Will they still use your existing tax bracket…?
DC:  You will have to pay your normal income tax.  We are not tax advisors, but most will end up paying the highest rate of income tax. That’s why we recommend you figure out the federal and state tax rates, and set that amount aside until this is resolved.
925 caller:  [Appreciation]  I have no idea how you manage to stay married through all this.  [Tony:  It’s more about staying married after this!]
DC:  When we got the call that it would got on the 1st, and then it got pulled for the amnesty issue, my wife pouted for a day and a half!  She also doesn’t understand how, with my contacts, I cannot get exchanged.  It’s not all wine and roses at my house.
Caller:  I don’t quite understand why there is such a range on the dong rate.
DC:  We heard that most of October, the dong was in the $2 range, then it was adjusted to $1.02, international rate.
Tony:  I just tell them the dong rate is .47, so they don’t get over-excited.
Caller:  Do you think there will still be some currencies in the second basket?
Tony:  Where is my list?  <joke>  We do know that there will be some in a second basket, but we’re not allowed to tell you.
Caller:  What would you do if there are no contract rates, and you’re not a gambler?
DC:  Take the money and run. The international rate is still terrific.
Caller:  Is there still opportunity to pay less tax according to which rate you take?
DC:  There has been time to learn about tax strategies and also those who are not used to paying quarterly taxes have a year to get their team together and create better tax strategies.  I know in the past some said that some rates would have no taxes, but frankly I can’t get my head around that.
Caller:  Thank you!  Stay married!
Tony:  Apart from the fact I love my wife, it will be very expensive to split up afterwards!  We are having a birthday party for Mrs. Renfrow this week…
DC:  It’s my 14th anniversary tomorrow, so it should be a great week altogether!
301 caller:  I heard that one of the MPs said they will not be implementing the budget.
DC: I know that MP – she is associated with Maliki, and she’s always causing trouble.  She is not endorsing the 2015 budget, but it’s already passed, so that doesn’t matter.  There are a few tweaks that are not that important, but they don’t want to look like idiots if the global guys say they cannot implement the budget or use the new rate.  She is one of those folks who just likes to get on their favorite station and spout all that hard-core action, like Ted Cruz on the right and someone else hardline on the left. 
Tony:  The budget has been passed, and will be implemented before the 20th – and I’m just using that date because your mentioned it. They already scheduled it five times in the last month, and someone blocked it.  We’ve been told that they have cleared the last obstacle, so we hope this is the right time now.
775 caller:  My Christmas tree is still up, and I hope the Easter Bunny won’t leave eggs under it.  Also, it sounds like we need to know which bank we want before getting the 800 numbers.  Will you put out the 800 numbers?
Tony:  You won’t be putting Valentines under it either.
DC:  Some banks don’t want to deal with any problems;  some want to pick their own customers.  Wells Fargo has to accept everyone, so they will have 800 numbers.  Other banks might have qualifications like “over this amount” or “living in this area”.  Nobody  knows what they are, or who to call.
Tony:  If there are no 800 numbers for five million people, and they suspect the banks may have different rates, then EACH bank will have five million calls, and that is going to be massively confusing for the people and for the banks.  The foreign currency departments are going to go crazy not knowing if people are qualified or whatever.  Most people will call their existing banks, but it would make much more sense to have a central exchange. And then they expect people NOT to tell others what rate they got?
DC:  The banks are thinking this through for their own policies, but most tier 2 and tier 3 banks are finding it too painful and decided not to take part.   Every bank can their own plan, so that is going to be confusing if BoA only takes these, and Citi only wants those.  There really should have a better process worked out. We don’t take it personally, but some of the central people still don’t like us, and we don’t know what they’ll tell us.
Tony:  We are just trying to help people do this smoothly.  If each bank tries to handle this separately, it’s going to be chaos. We don’t know until we get the package.  I hope we will get a good explanation, and to explain it to you before you have to call anyone.
830 caller:  DC, you’ll in Texas, right?
DC:  I think the NDA will restrict what meetings we can attend afterwards, though.
Caller:  The contract rate situation is still clear as mud.  It doesn’t make sense. You mentioned something about spread, and all, but I don’t understand. Why cannot China just accumulate a lot of this cheap dinar;  why would they pay us a premium?
DC:  Part of the exchange process for the dinar is that each country that fought in the Iraqi war have a certain amount of dinar they can buy.  Those who had the most people in the fight were able to get the most dinar, and the US has the most of all. Those who were not in the fight, like China, also need to buy a lot of oil, so they wanted to participate in this plan. They were told they could buy it at a discount, and China had to follow a certain process; they can buy the dinar from an ordinary US citizen, each serial number is accounted for, the dinar is then destroyed, and China would get credit with which to buy oil.  Other countries could do this, but China is the biggest consumer.  They had to buy it from us in order to get those oil credits, and that’s why the contract rates are in place and important.  If they don’t follow a specific provenance – from printing to Iraq to a known distributor to a specific currency dealer to, say, me in Austin – if it doesn’t follow that process, it doesn’t count for china.
Tony:  We know the rate, we know how much the US gets paid in order for China to get those oil credits, and all the rest. However, the banks are saying this is a scam and it’s never going to happen! It’s the government that set this whole procedure up!
Caller:  So China cannot just go out, buy dinar from Iraq, and stockpile it.
DC:  You can do that, but China cannot. Some countries do have dinar in foreign reserves, because Iraq said that for the first year you can only do this amount, and only 1-2% per year afterwards. They did that with the coalition partners, and also countries like China and Russia. 
Tony:  So it’s a question of how much they relieved Iraq of debt, as a percentage of their participation in the Iraqi war;  they are receiving dinar in the same proportion.
301 caller:  This is my first time!  It’s a great way to start the year.  I spoke with Sterling today, and the lady said ‘as soon as they announce the final time, then they can change their rate on their screen and we can start exchanging.” But you are saying they are not starting Forex or ISX for ten days…
DC:  The exchangers also take their cues from the US treasury.  They are not selling dinar back through distributors, but directly to the CBI or UST.  So it’s on their checklist to make sure Sterling, dealers, exchangers and banks are notified at the same time.
Tony:  As soon as they change the rates on their sites, you can put in your sale order.
Caller:  She told me to call them as I don’t have a computer.  Hope to see you in Vegas!  Or Tony, will you have a Sacramento meet-and-greet?
Tony:  We don’t know if we’ll be able to do the events – it goes back and forth. DC is doubtful they will let our site stay open.  I don’t know what they will let us do.  They will have to leave the site up for a while so we can give out the information…
DC:  I think anything related to dinar will be eliminated from the internet.  We are told by the bankers that the exchange process will be very simple.
Caller:  I heard an alternative NDA today, and I would never make the agreement you are planning to make…
Tony:  I agreed to do some things so that we could continue to give you all information. I have to read through it, and I’m sure there are things I won’t agree with.  But DC tells me that I will have to sign it whether I agree or not. But I’ll read it first!
360 caller:  Happy New Year!  You said a few weeks ago that there are not many dinar holders in Washington and Oregon.  Where should we go to exchange?
DC:  You will probably have to go to your nearest Wells Fargo.  If there are over 100,00 in your town, there will probably be an exchange center.  If not, you might have to call around.  We will try to direct you as best we can, but we may be shut down swiftly.  If we cannot post those 800 numbers, call your closest WF.  This is why it is so important to get that package out, to keep everyone calm and move this through smoothly.
Caller:  You talk about tier 1 and tier 2 banks, and my local bankers couldn’t explain it.
DC:  Tier 1 means there are assets over 100 million dollars. Tier 2 has 10-100 million and below 10,000,000 means tier 3. Really we’re talking about banks with their own foreign currency departments. Most don’t because they don’t need to do it. 
Caller:  So a credit union would be tier 3.  I’ll have to exchange at WF, and transfer the funds back to my credit union? 
DC:  Wells Fargo owns the old Bank of Ireland system, so most tier 2 and 3 banks train people to use the WF remote system to exchange foreign currency.  I hope and pray exchanges will happen this week.
In summary, we believe and we are pretty certain that the amnesty stuff was completed by Iraq and accepted by the US, China and IMF countries. They are restarting the ramp up process. The finance ministry and CBI is targeting this week and they’re so ready to get this done.  We understand all parties are supportive;  if that changes, we’ll update.
Pam:  There is a neon light at the end of the tunnel… Blake Shelton said that.
Ray:  Continue to enjoy Marvelous Monday!  Take care, everyone.
Tony: They are telling their people only minor issues need to be fixed.  In the back-ground we are told they are attempting to implement this in the next week.  Everyone is saying they are ready.  Iraq is doing everything they possibly can to get this done.  There has been a big push from China, and MPs have been saying “go, go, go”.  They have promised this budget to their own people, and when it doesn’t got through, it makes them look inept or like US puppets.  If we have to do the call on Wednesday, I’m sure we’ll have 100% positive information and we’ll go from there. If anything changes, we’ll tweet it out!

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