Tuesday, December 23, 2014



SANYOMAR: Does anyone know what rate popped up lately for Rupiah?  Haven't heard much about it.

ROGUE:     $1.08


ADEPT1: I just received and replied to this excellent question by PM.  Perhaps this discussion will be useful to others, so I am posting here.  NOTE:  I am not any kind of investment or financial advisor;  please consult professionals!

Question:  DC mentioned that if the two other currencies are low in rate when it RVs, he might wait for the 2nd basket..but he mentioned something about if we can participate in the 2nd basket.   How can we find out if we will be able to participate in the 2nd basket though?  Where do we look or who do we ask?  Otherwise, if we can't exchange after the lst basket, we would be losing a lot of money if we wait.  Thanks for any help you can give.   :)

My answer: 

You participate in the second basket by holding and waiting... but I don't know how to judge when or if that is feasible.  Tony has said all along that a) you need knowledge and nerves of steel and b) they will probably change the rules so that only "qualified investors" can take part.  That usually means people with assets of ten million dollars or more (I think that's what I heard Tony say).

On the other hand, there is nothing stopping you from exchanging most or all of your secondary currencies and saving some in case.  My impression (and it is only my impression) is that ZIM is the most likely to be in the second basket as well as the first.  As Zim is very cheap right now, I think your best strategy is to exchange ALL your dinar and dong at contract rates, and some of your Zim, holding back some Zim in case it revalues again.  That means you will get plenty of money to live on while risking little if the Zim doesn't show up in the second basket.  Other currencies to consider might be the South African rand, the Indian rupee, and possibly several of the undervalued South American currencies -- check Chile and Argentina particularly.  Any of the BRICS countries are reasonable bets -- that would be Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- and Mexico seems about to bloom as well. South Korea and Turkey also show some promise.  (For further ideas, you might want to check the group called N-11:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Eleven.  These are the countries considered likeliest to develop next.)

Please note - this is only my opinion, and although I'm pretty good at digesting the information we get, I am not any kind of currency trader or investment adviser.  My plan is similar to DC's:  I will get the highest contract rate I can find, and then I'm done with currrencies and onto structuring an endowment fund for my private charitable foundation!

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