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DINARESGURUS.BLOGSPOT.COM_________________ _______

Tuesday, January 15, 2019

RAYREN98 TIDBIT, 15 JAN

Monday UPDATE for January 14, 2019 

Posted by RayRen98


Today's Parliament session has been postponed until Wednesday at 1:00 due to a lack of quorum. [And the band played on....]

Citizens are not happy with Mahdi's "progress" thus far...they are saying the corruption is still rampant in the government. #wearethepeople

Unofficial report: Things (rate activity) should get started today in Iraq and filter over to us this week. Time Will Tell. Relax...Relate.......Release.

After the TNTSuperfantastic conference call....

Today, Iraqi TV is reporting that the World Bank is backing a committee formed to oversee the implementation of the cabinet members and to investigate the the situation because it is delaying the reconstruction efforts. #wearethepeople

Questions & Answers -Deleting the Zeros from the Iraq Dinar by MNT GOAT, 15 JAN

Deleting the Zeros from the Iraq Dinar
More Questions and Answers

I know many of you reading these notes want simple short answers to your questions. When I give through explanations you simply think it is too long to read and give up. Then you keep asking the same questions over and over again thinking the answers will change somehow. Simply put, take the time to learn about your investment. 

I have also written another Facebook NOTE explaining the entire process of deleting the zeros and how it works. Have you read this one too? Here is the link: 
https://www.facebook.com/notes/latest-mnt-goat-news-letter/the-project-to-delete-the-zeros-explained/723333494668712/
I encourage everyone reading this NOTE today to respond to it with a question by adding a comment, if you have a question. I will try to answer all questions and then add them to this NOTE for the benefit of others too. 
_____________________________________________________________
Question: So what happens to the currency in circulation and the currency that was printed but never circulated when this takes place? Does the value go down? e.g. 25,000 notes become worth only 25 dollars?

Mnt Goat Reply: If they delete three 0’s 1 dinar would be worth 0.85 cents as of today.

Question: The literal translation of ‘delete the zeros’ means remove the leading zeros, so if they did, 1 dinar would be worth 25 dollars at 1:1?

Mnt Goat Reply: That is correct that same value a 25k notes has today in Iraq under the CBI program rate of 1190. 
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Question: When will the 3 Zeros be DELETED?
Mnt Goat Reply: The CBI will only complete the project to delete the zeros until the CBI and the finance committee can come together on an agreement as to when to do it. Then we hope nothing changes their mind in the meantime since scheduled. We are not waiting for the economy to take off or for reconstruction to first happen. I know for a FACT that the reinstatement is part of the condition by the IMF to release reconstruction funds.

 This was a plan from 2018-2022 so it already late. They need to know that the funds are secure and will be used for this purpose. There are billions at stake and, quite frankly, Iraq does not have a very good track record already of using investors money properly. This time will be different. This is what makes this past May 2018 election so important. Investors and the IMF want technocratic cabinet members who are honestly going to move Iraq forward. No more playing games. They don’t care how long it takes. They will not budge until the government is fully formed and Iran is out of the politics to a point they can no longer harm the process. 

I know this from past articles which I resurfaced and explained all this very clearly for everyone to read. Their words NOT mine. We must pay attention to what they tell us and stop making up stories. Please see my Jan 9th 2019 newsletter. I point out these issues to you from the articles. 
_____________________________________________________________
Question: Is the CBI saying replacing the larger 3 zero notes with new currency?
Mnt Goat Reply: If they remove three zeros the IQD it will be replaced by a new lower category currency thus when the CBI reinstates the currency they will have to raise the rate. But they do not need to get all the 3 zeros notes changed over. In fact the plan does not call for all of them either. Once the reinstatement occurs they told us it will take up to 10 years to get all these 3 zero notes out of circulation. So the reinstatement is also pivotal in this process. 
We already know the value is there since a 25k notes is not worth 25 dollars at 1:1.

 So the IQD that investors hold will be re-demonetized however this process is going to be much different that how normal re-denominations work. We know from other countries namely Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Germany, etc and this has been done re-denominations many times in the past. This is the risk you take when you invest in a currency with zeros added because of inflation. But when they delete these zeros due to very high inflation the re-denomination is termed a “lop” and yes the currency can become almost worthless overnight.

 But wasn’t it almost worthless anyhow? So for Iraq we know the value is much greater than reflected in the current CBI rate. We also know inflation is controlled to 2% of less. So they are not going to “lop”. We also heard it right from the mouths of the CBI leadership that the plan calls for the 3 zero notes to “coincide” with the newer smaller category notes for up to 10 years afterwards. This hardly sounds like a “lop” to me. 
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Question: A committee member, Abdul Hussein al-Yasiri has released a statement, in which he stated that the process of deletion of zeros from the national currency will begin in 2014, through an agreement with the central bank. Further he mentioned in that same statement, “This project will lead to reducing the proportion of the national currency traded from 4 billion to one billion. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? They need to trade trillions!
Mnt Goat Reply: Yes the process has begun in 2014. Remember it is process and they do not mean to be “fully” executed in 2014 in this article. 

Yes they have said many times they need to reduce the amount of currency from 120 trillion dinars down to to 90 trillion dinars as part of the project to delete the zeros. This is getting 1/3 of the total hard currency off the streets. That’s a 30 trillion to get out of the hands of the citizens. Later the CBI finally tells us in late 2017 this was completed successfully with the implementation of electronic banking and the use of ATMs for small amounts of cash withdrawals, keeping hard cash off the streets.   
_____________________________________________________________
Question: Will by deleting the zeros it makes the currency stronger , therefore making our investment more valuable?
Mnt Goat Reply: Yes, by deleting the ZEROS this will make the currency stronger thus also our investment. On the surface it looks like your 1,000 dinar note would only become worth only 1 dinar. But what most forget or don’t know is that the two currencies will “coincide” together for up to 10 years. That means the older 3 zero notes and the newer lower category notes will both be in circulation at the same time.

How can banks then differentiate the rate to the different notes? They can’t and so a dinar is a dinar. Example: So let’s say you took a newer category note of 1 dinar to the bank and exchanged it after the reinstatement. The new rate is 1: 3 meaning 1 IQD is worth $3 USD. You would get $3 USD.   Then if you took an older 25,000 dinar note to the same bank they would have to apply the same FOREX rate of 1: 3 to this note too. They will not be able to differentiate. Get it? Thus you would get $75,000 USD in exchange. So yes, the currency you hold would be much stronger. 

The CBI has told us in multiple articles that the 3 zero notes would be used later (after the event) almost exclusively for inter-banking transactions for trading. Later these larger notes are NOT meant to be in the publics hands thus 10 ten years to get all of them (the remaining 2/3 out of circulation). So you as an owner of these larger notes, when you do to the bank, the banks will want these dinars since they will be VERY valuable. When we exchange our dinars, we are acting as we are bankers not ordinary Iraqi citizens. This is the key to understanding this exchange process and just because it is so different than other forms of re-denominations many do understand and then refuse to take the time to learn. They shoot off their mouths and confuse everyone based on only what they know from other historical re-denominations of other countries. 
_____________________________________________________________

Question: Is it still too early to make a solid call on the 5 year implementation in 2019? 
Mnt Goat Reply: Nothing set in stone yet. We can only go by what they told us. In my Jan 16th 2019 newsletter I resurrect many old articles going back to 2011-2014. In one of the articles the CBI has told us then they needed to wait yet another five years. This article was from 2014. This was due to ISIS invasion in Iraq. We know the invasion was overrun and ISIS was defeated by late 2017. So 2019 is within the this 5 year mark and very probable. How time flies… 😊
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Question: Why are some people so stupid. Deleting the zeros is exactly like a negative stock split. In a 1:1000 negative stock split, the value of the note would increase by 1000. However, if you previously had 1,000,000 shares you would only have 1,000 after the split. The same goes with currency. The value increases by 1,000 but the trade-in rate is 1000:1 to get the new currency. You end up with exactly the same amount. Even then, as most banks won’t accept dinar to be exchanged for US dollars, you’ll need to pay a premium to get US dollars. In other words, your dinar is virtually worthless and I can guarantee that anyone who invests will lose some or close to all of their “investment”. A sucker really is born every day.

Mnt Goat Reply– Really? Then why are reading then all the intel on the dinar revaluation and why are you poking your head around all these articles if you truly believe this is all just a scam. Currency dealings are not like stock transactions and you only show your stupidity in making this comparison. Also the Iraqi currency is not supposed to “revalue” anyway. It first has to be “reinstated” back to the global currency exchanges and so your comment on this shows just how dumb you are in this investment. Next the higher rate hike is going to come from the float once back on the currency exchanges.

 The future investors will drive the rate up until eventually it settles down to is “nominal” market rate. This is the rate it can most efficiently survive based on many factors. One is the other assets backing the currency, another is the ability to be in demand for neighboring countries for use for trade. And then there are the speculators who will want to get a piece of the action on the currency exchanges just other currencies trade every day. So the rate is where it is today at 1190 since it was ripped off the global exchanges in 2003. This is just a rate to discourage using the dinar to finance terrorism during the invasion and post invasion. This rate is NOT indicative of its true VALUE. There is difference between rate and value. That’s what makes speculation what it is. I also can see by your description of the process to delete the zeros is not well informed and you are just shooting off your mouth without any education in this investment. 

I recommend you get some education on this investment.  I can see you do own dinar too just by the way you are mouthing off and venting negatively. You are discouraged this is not paying off on your timeframe.
Remember anything you comment on is being read by thousands of investors or some thinking about investing. So you should be accurate and well-studied in your point of view. Obviously, you are NOT. 
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Question: Isn't the delete the 3 zero's....means starting from the decimal point, of the "exchange rate" .00085 delete 3 zeros becomes .85?  Its not about deleting 3 zeros off the actual  bank notes is it? Only the exchange rate right?

Mnt Goat Reply: I clearly state that deleting the 3 zeros is a lose term meaning the transition from the larger 3 zero notes to the smaller category notes. Right now emphasis is on using the 250, 500 and 1000 dinar notes. All government funded payrolls, retirements, etc are now dispersed to bank accounts via electronic banking. If anyone needs petty cash the ATM machines are now up and running to disperse these notes. The exchange rate will change outside of Iraq ONLY when the dinar is reinstated back on the global currency exchanges (i.e. FOREX). The rate will be driven up to what we want to get rich on from investors coming in and buying up dinar off of FOREX. The dinar will be put on a float so as demand increases the rate rises. Obviously you asked a question without first reading my NOTE on Facebook. I can tell by your question so don’t lie to me. Please go read the NOTE on the “project to delete the zeros”. Here is the link again. https://www.facebook.com/notes/latest-mnt-goat-news-letter/the-project-to-delete-the-zeros-explained/723333494668712/
GO READ IT AND STOP BEING SO LAZY! 
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Question: If Iraq reinstates and the value of the dinar goes up, say 1:1 with the dollar won’t that crush Iran with the 80 billion worth of trade They do? Is that why the strong Iranian influence has kept this stalled out for so long and why Mahidi can’t form a government or get a budget passed?

Mnt Goat Reply: Very good question and very intelligent! Yes correct and this has been the problem all along with Iraq using the dinar in trade with Iran. This is why it is taking so long to come up with a solution to not using the US dollar. But progress must move forward for Iraq and right now this top on the agenda for the US and the IMF since Iran does not really want to cooperate. So who cares about them then? 

Iraq cares since it depends on fresh food supplies from Iran. So if you go read my Jan 16th 2019 newsletter you can see 2 articles dating back to 2008 and 2011 where Maliki and his goons suppress the CBI from completing the project, probably for this same reason. 
 So now with the new US sanctions in place beginning in Nov 2018 this a great opportunity to crush Iran. The US policy is actually to help them but to do this they must surrender this aggression policy. Good faith for them would be to remove all Iranian militia out of Iran. The US forces can not stabilize the country and they no longer need Iran to help fight ISIS. So this excuse to occupy Iraq no longer stands. Why do you think Trump moved out of Syria and into Iraq? Why do you think he make a special Christmas trip on Dec 16th to see the troops? So this move by Iran would be a very good start and show of cooperation and willingness to work with the US. Yes, Trump is the master negotiator.. I thank God everyday for bringing this man to the presidency of the US! 

I also have another more recent article in the same Jan 16th newsletter that talks about this very same phenomena and the impact of using the dinar in trade with Iran. It explains it all in detail and it is too much to repeat here. I suggest you read my newsletter coming out tomorrow. So very good question. Thank you for it. It was right on QUE! 

DINAR GURUS UPDATE, 15 JAN

1-15-2019  Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat    Question:  When will the 3 Zeros be DELETED?    The CBI will only complete the project to delete the zeros until the CBI and the finance committee can come together on an agreement as to when to do it. Then we hope nothing changes their mind in the meantime since scheduled. We are not waiting for the economy to take off or for reconstruction to first happen. I know for a FACT that the reinstatement is part of the condition by the IMF to release reconstruction funds. This was a plan from 2018-2022 so it already late.   They need to know that the funds are secure and will be used for this purpose.  ...This is what makes this past May 2018 election so important. Investors and the IMF want technocratic cabinet members who are honestly going to move Iraq forward. No more playing games. They don’t care how long it takes. They will not budge until the government is fully formed and Iran is out of the politics to a point they can no longer harm the process.

1-15-2019   Newshound Guru MilitiaMan
   Article:  "The Central Bank cancels a 2% commission payment for the $20 category and less"  Well well.. Now why in the world would they cancel 2% commission on relatively small category notes of foreign currency?  ...The CBI is doing this for a reason and I suspect it is for a very good reason. As in they are going to have similar small notes that have more value therefore, they will have to exchange similar notes on a daily basis.. So imo, this is huge...imo.

1-15-2019   Newshound Guru tlm724
    [I read...that we need article 8 from the imf before Iraq can reval, is there any truth to this?]  Yes there is truth in that.

1-15-2019   Newshound Guru  Kaperoni   If you go back and read some of the transition documents...from the IMF it fits right in line with the plan we see evolving in Iraq.  I also encourage anyone who has not yet reviewed the IMF Article IV Consultation from 2013 and 2017 to go...and review this information.  It also fits in line with what we are seeing evolve in Iraq. 
 
1-15-2019   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   Question: So what happens to the currency in circulation and the currency that was printed but never circulated when this takes place? Does the value go down? e.g. 25,000 notes become worth only 25 dollarsIf they delete three 0’s 1 dinar would be worth 0.85 cents as of today.

TNT CC NOTES, 15 JAN

Bullet pts by AZhombre)

Replay: 641.715.0623, PIN CODE 409029#


AUDIO REPLAY 

TNT Ray-Tony call 2019.01.02 Wed bullet pts by AZhombre 

Opening Comments: 


  • Tony: Things put on the TV but want to go thru some things first. Sent out a happy birthday over the weekend, appreciate you. Pay attention please! Got a call last night. Guy telling about a dinar scan going on. Saying a bunch of groups and they’re the only ones getting paid. Tony/that’s a lie. Only 300 groups, not thousands. This guy is contacting people and you have to send him your Dinar to be a part of his deal. $11, you get 20% because 80% goes to “humanitarian”. If you don’t do his 80/20 deal, the banks are only going to give you a penny. He’s targeting “older people”. That’s why somebody called me. This guy is trying to take it. A bunch of crooks out there. Don’t send them your Dinar and social security #, etc. Everybody is going to have an appt yourself and get paid.I came on this call. I did a live group thing in Reno. I watched people give him their money. A month later I got phone calls saying they lost all their dinar. Can’t just say, “too bad for them they are suckers”. Don’t need to con others who haven’t been given any info. Tell others the truth. “Only going to get paid if….” If they question it, say it’s wrong. Put Tony on your call right now and let’s discuss it. We will debate it live and then I’ll put the bank on the call. Sorry, got the call on this yesterday and its nonsense! 

  • Blasts on: Sat, Sun, and Monday. Todays’ Parliament’s session has been postponed… 

  • Unofficial report,“things” should get started in Iraq… 

  • Tony: saying no end in sight, hopeless, party walking away from discussions. On TV today, broadcasting in Iraq, telling people what’s going on. Makes no sense. US, you’re not getting money until you do that. Time to get your govt done. Saying they can’t because they can’t agree. Saying ministers are no longer their top concern, because they aren’t going to change. Only concerned about the budget that will be easy to pass. Whole lot of confusion. People are saying it’s already done, dropped the 3 zeros. How come people are rejoicing? Articles saying Iran did. They have a law. If you lie in public, they can be put in prison for up to 7 years. Anything that would affect the security. 2 yrs. in prison if politicians, but only have to pay a 200 Dinar (20 cents) fine? Or are they telling us the value of the Dinar now. 1,200 or 1,500 fine makes more sense. A bunch of people are expecting it today. Perhaps tomorrow. Wait and see if that’s what’s going to happen. Iran still trying to do business with them. Pompeo wants them to switch to USA for all their needs. A battle not only for their govt but their livelihood. US is trying to move the process along to destroy the economy of Iran to destroy their government. Can’t use the dollar and limit the dinar to certain products. So much going on in Iraq nobody knows what’s going on. The dollar has been cut-off for Iran. Iran wanted to send people over to Iraq to attack US citizens. US was planning to attack Iran locations in Iraq. Hope we see the RV first. Were told over the weekend it would start this week. I’m going to look for it tomorrow or Wed, after they have another vote. Everything was chaotic in China, Germany, etc. when it was done there. We just have to wait and see it. 

  • Ray/questions from the board: Someone knew of someone getting millions on their cards in Kurdistan. 

  • Tony/they don’t always agree on everything. Something happening with contractors over there that’s not happening with everybody else. Has to happen to be prepared. They are further along than we are. 

  • TP40,doesn’t there need to be an RV? Tony/right not they are using their money on the projects. 

  • Sweet/a month ago were told govt needed to be informed. Why do we have to wait when others exchanged? Tony/had a govt up and running, didn’t need to, had to be filled. This was a want for the two highest position controlling the two most important positions before start giving out money. They already know, this is just a show. They’ll pop the names in and go! Back-door agreement to this. Iran has agreed to let one of the positions go in order to get Iraq in the trade deal. Rich get richer. Who you know not what you know. Always have some with privileges that get to go first. 5 or 10 people paid here and there. Good for them, I’m happy for them. The process is working. OK, that’s closer to all of us. I’ve been doing this for 10 yrs and had bank VP’s saying we’re trying to put you in with others going early. Told when everybody else goes. Wait and go with the group. Still has to wait but wants to wait. 

  • Tighward/Does this fight have more to do with an RV than the wall? Tony/the rest of country knows nothing about the GCR. Wall has nothing to do with this. Crazy youtube videos of the military taking over. A barge going to Gitmo? How do you guys believe this BS, 70k waiting to be arrested as soon as we have an RV? Wall has nothing to do with the RV. 

  • Storm/in you tweet, does this mean a float? Ray/no, the info will gradually come to us. Rev/has the start-up begun. Ray, addressed already. 

  • XXX/what does that mean specifically? Tony/contractors are getting something different, one-time payments. Done, except the go. Waiting to see it! Don’t know why they’re holding it back. Still being used as a carrot and a stick. Waiting for Iraq to commit. Get things from American companies instead of Iran. Enough accomplished this weekend. Got it from the banks and over the weekend from another country.
     
  • Saltydog/ $60 barrel oil. Did Iraq parliament re-do their budget? Tony/ they were happy at $56 barrel. 

  • Higheshealer/ who’s stopping the RV? Tony/Auction will go away (make millions made a day before it RV’s), every payday they are trying to give out more loans. When they feel it’s strong enough to do it they will do away with the auctions. People need to believe in the banks and the credit cards! Same thing in the USA. 


Live Individuals: 



  • 404/Atlanta, GA. How are Iraqi people informed on this process? Tony/before ticker tape across the screen. Today was broadcast on TV. C/focus on the budget. Will it be printed in the Gazette as well this Wed or do we have to wait until Sat? Tony/don’t know. Wish they would do both on Wed. so we can go. If Iraq says now we’re buying from the US, we don’t know. C/Something happening w contractors are you going to be able to tell us later? Tony/given actual live rates, process, and time lines. C/do you know? T/I’m going to say they do! Not on standby, not restricted, not sure.Tony/we always plan M,W,F at 10am. Sometimes life gets in the way! Very few donate to this call. Don’t complain if you don’t donate! Tony cancelled the call, so don’t get mad at Ray. Ray don’t complain if you don’t donate! 

  • 754/Fort Lauderdale, FL Could they continue to draw this out? Tony/every country could stop loaning them money. They haven’t done it because they’re fulfilling every requirements. As a society they weren’t prepared. Now they are. Used to not having cash in their hands. Like our EBT cards in US. They are at the very end and that’s where you get the corruption at the top out! Only 30 banks in the auctions. Some of the Parliament members own those banks. They can’t hold up progress forever. Too much time and money been invested. If they see that happening it will be changed real quick. C/Dinar the problem? T/no. You’re getting digits on your screen. You’re never going to get a million dollars cash. Might see it on that screen but won’t get it. 

  • 610/ Gman from PA. Please donate: www.tntsuperfantastic.comRaymond Renfro 1748 Elm City, NC 27822. Cash app $tntsuperfantastic and make your donation electronically! 

  • 205/ Birmingham, AL. Bank story trying to buy Dong. Who are we waiting on? T/waiting for the budget to be passed and the ministers. Also, things going on in the back. We’re not hearing about the ministers. 

  • 303/ Denver, CO. 

  • 281/ Houston, TX. Wanted to know what’s going to happen to Maliki.T/Iran fighting for someone they can control. Maliki won’t be the guy. 

  • 312/ Chicago, IL. Husband of the woman with the husband. Tony/said all you had to say is I am the man with the wife! C/Zim want to use their currency. Tony/they want to come out with a new currency within 12 months. They did this 3 yrs ago. I don’t know if has to be a new agreement with different notes. The only way they can do this is have a new currency. I don’t know if it requires “new notes”. We’ll have money then and try and buy them all. Only 2k people had those (ZIM) notes originally. C/Iran T/US putting in more bases in Iraq. Kurdistan area saying don’t need Iran soldiers protecting them. Some areas prefer the US troops protecting them. 

  • 951/So Cal Guy. Dong and Zim rates? T/$3.71 dinar, $1+ Dong! C/opinion on Zim. T/not going. Doesn’t make sense when they’re coming out with new currency within 12 months. C/Don’t have your phone number. T/just ask Ray, he’ll blast it out to the whole world. 

  • 803/ Columbia, SC. 1sttime caller. Private asset accounts? T/they had these bank accounts going around the internet. Could this bank account to buy cars, etc. Worked until a guy bought an RV for $50k Then the FBI arrested him. Not that simple or everyone would become a millionaire. If you use that number, you’ll see the inside of a jail. C/mechanism of burrowing money. Bank story, Charleston, SC. Heard a couple of employees talking about RV. One said to another about to leave, “stick around so you could listen to a call on it”. First time on the teller level. 

  • 209/Stockton, CA. C/if your currency is in route, how do you tell them if it goes? T/I have 2 million and want it in the contract deal. Already bought and pd for it. 

  • 818/Los Angeles, CA. (didn’t answer) 

  • 281/Houston, TX. C/in and out of the que 2 times. Ready to drive the bus today! Feb 10thinternational investment conference in Iraq. Make more sense for the rates to be public by then. T/made sense they did it the last 3 times, but they didn’t do it then! Not getting it until the rate changes. Iraq’s growth rate can’t get to 6.9 w/o an RV. 

  • Wrap-up!Tony/ We know it’s happening. Too many sources saying it’s done. Too many contractors involved. Be ready so you don’t have to get ready! Get $50 more (dong) and give it to somebody who will become a millionaire. 

  • Ray/either a chaser or waiter. Go after the contract rate or wait at least 24 hours and know rather than guessing what the rate will be! 

KAPERONI TIDBIT, 15 JAN

[I’ve always heard the government has nothing to do with the Dinar. That only the CBI could begin the float. If so then why do people say only when the government is set the float can begin.] Monetary policy is the CBI. That being said, such a significant event requires support from the Iraqi government. As well, much of the directives being implemented by Iraq are part of the reforms agreed under IMF or WB Stand by Agreements.

KTFA: " DROP DEAD DATE", 15 JAN

KTFA

Sunkissed » January 14th, 2018

BF Samson Post #32 01-10-19 (see below)


I have highlighted the sections that apply to my comment below, because I think we didn't really see the significance of this article on first blush. Also, if you have read MM post 202 - (see below) there is some overlay in this article with his compilation.

In my opinion, the TIMING of this article is utterly FANTASTIC!

Did you all see this article gives us the DROP DEAD DATE? (imo)

FEBRUARY 02, 2019

1). JORDAN IS RACING AGAINST TIME.

why?

Well... imo... it looks like...

2). February 02, 2019 is a deadline date to IMPLEMENTATION. For what??

3). Remember that December 29-30 meeting when many contracts were signed?

Looks like Jordan signed some "old" deals that were "renewed" - I suppose we would use the word "updated" (to reflect a new rate? a more competitive price, since so many contractors are FLOODING into Iraq?)

So... there's the PRESSURE! Contracts were signed on December 29-30 and to be IMPLEMENTED BY FEBRUARY 02, 2019!

Then we need to ask, why were they updated? Looks like it's because Jordan's bid was too high as Iraq didn't think they were competitive enough -- because their manufacturing is controlled by the government, and they want their share of the profits!!

Well... sharpen your pencil Jordan! And... Iraq isn't dependent any longer, so Jordan has to improve their quality too if they're going to be doing significant trade with Iraq.

But -- Jordan wants a guarantee for trade (like in the old days). Ha! They (Jordan) don't want to have to compete, because with their government influence taking part of the profit, they can't trade competitively against other countries all vying for a piece of the pie!

So, Jordan attempts a "work-around:" Build a factory & warehouse on the border with Iraq to reduce shipping costs. Plus, they need to be exempt from Taxes and Tariffs if they are going to compete with everyone else -- not to mention retool their production to improve their quality of goods! WOW. Iraq is calling the shots!!! They are not used to this for sure.

All of this tells us that Iraq has evolved, and now they can be selective in who they trade with and the quality of goods they provide for their citizens! Unless Jordan can upgrade her energy sector, and quality of goods, it doesn't look very promising that they will regain their position as a major trade partner with Iraq, save for the area of minerals such as phosphorus, et al.

BUT HERE'S THE RUB:

After all the haggling and demands that Iraq has served up to Jordan... the bottom line actually rests with Iraq:

THEY MUST HAVE PURCHASING POWER to be able to absorb the MASSIVE QUANTITIES of goods, minerals, etc., coming INTO Iraq!!

Ball is DEFINITELY in Iraq's court!

Promises were made in the BEGINNING of 2018!! (Respect the first quarter!!! Sound familiar?? -- Walkingstick was accurate!)

And now, the longer they wait, the more difficult, if not impossible it will be for Jordan to perform in time!!! --- BUT....

in order to perform on their contract... Iraq MUST FIRST HAVE PURCHASING POWER!!!
Iraq HAS TO BE READY AND ABLE TO PAY THEM!!!

Therefore, February 02, 2019, appears to be the back-wall, Drop Dead Date, "to be an exquisite mutual-beneficial relationship."

If February 02, 2019 is the Drop Dead Date, then we are looking at Feb 02 - 04 (Monday) for the IQD to go live.

However... imo.... it certainly could go before that date!!

~ Sunkissed

Samson » January 14th, 2018

JORDAN IN RACE AGAINST TIME TO RE-PENETRATE IRAQI MARKET AS REGIONAL COMPETITORS SCRAMBLE FOR FOOTHOLDS

Economists, exporters weigh in on historic Jordan-Iraq deals to rejuvenate trade, voice concerns about competitiveness of exports

9th January,2019

The governments of Jordan and Iraq, two weeks ago, concluded talks to facilitate economic, trade and power cooperation and development, including three major trade agreements, aside from the memorandum of understanding on power linkage.

According to Prime Minister Omar Razzaz, two of those trade accords will reflect positively on Jordanian exports to Iraq within the upcoming months, mainly the restoration of custom exemptions for Jordanian goods that do not compete with Iraqi products and the door-to-door freight transport agreement. It will “substitute the back-to-back freight shipping mechanism, which is inefficient, both in terms of cost and time wasted”, the premier explained to the reporters he met on the sidelines of his visit to Iraq. Entailed in these new trade measures are new allowances to ease visa protocols for freight transport through the Karameh-Turaibil Border Crossing, he added.

Iraqi Minister of Industry and Minerals Saleh Jubouri also sounded hopeful when he told The Jordan Times that he expected Jordanian exports to Iraq to double in 2019. Notably, exports to Iraq dropped from nearly JD883.1 million in 2013 to around JD367.7 million in 2017, followed by a 36 per cent increase in July 2018, compared with the same month in 2017. Nonetheless, “the Iraqi market is overrun by Turkish products, as well as Iranian exports, though to a lesser extent”, Jubouri warned.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries are now exporting to Iraq, a source with the direct foreign investments office at the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad told The Jordan Times. Jordan is not going to be without competition in its pursuit of a slice in the Iraq reconstruction project, Razzaz acknowledged. However, head of the Direct Investment Department at the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad Riyad Ababneh argued that “Iraqi consumers have confidence in Jordanian products, which is an advantage for [our] exports over competitors’”.

Against reassurances by Iraqi Ambassador to Jordan Safia Al Suhail on the outstanding trade relationship between Iraq and Jordan and the promises of exempting Jordanian exports, Jubouri subtly reaffirmed that the issue of costs may very well prove to be a challenge for Jordanian exporters to secure a significant share of the Iraq market. To that, Razzaz promised that the industrial estate agreed to be built on the border during the talks, over an area of 24 square kilometres, would drastically cut costs for exports and boost bilateral trade ties between the two countries.

Additionally, Razzaz and his Iraqi counterpart, Adel Abdul Mahdi, announced work was underway to settle Iraqi debts to Jordanian enterprises and claims dating back to the era of the trade protocol before the occupation of Iraq in 2003. Still, some industrialists and exporters, as well as economists, remain sceptical of the practical outcomes of all these pledges, despite the fixed timeline set by both governments for the implementation of these agreements, to launch on February 2, according to the joint statement issued at the conclusion of December 29-30 visit, last year.

High expectations

Most of the deals signed are old agreements, merely renewed, economist Mazin Marji highlighted. “None of it is bad for business. Some will help, yes, but in reality I think restoring the scale of Jordanian exports to 2013 levels, before the border closure, is not doable within a year, or two for that matter. In three years, maybe,” he argued, “provided that the current political, security and other variables do not change, let alone restoring the volume of exports to pre-occupation levels”.

Economist Mufleh Akel agreed. “The [Iraqi] minister’s expectations are a little too optimistic,” he said.

Talking about restoring the glorious days of exportation to Iraq, however, is an entirely different story, according to the economist. “The truth is that the pre-occupation Iraqi authorities imposed Jordanian products on the [Iraqi] market, granting [our] exporters an absolute advantage, especially under the oil-for-food programme, which was an internationally endorsed agenda. We need not forget that the Iraqi leadership was willing to overlook the shortcoming quality of our exported goods in favour of supporting Jordan,” Marji said “This is no longer the case.”

Jordan does not any more have an absolute advantage over other competitors in the Iraqi market. “We need to look to our comparative, relative advantage and capitalise on it, that is if indeed we wish to restore our share of the Iraqi market,” he added.

One of the issues facing the Jordanian exports economy, Marji explained, is that the private sector wants the government to secure the market share for their exports, instead of competing for it. “This is not going to happen. Competition over Iraq is intense,” he added. “Exemptions for Jordanian goods will help boost exports, but the whole door-to-door, instead of back-to-back freight shipping arrangement, is merely a technicality. Combined, they probably will make a difference, but ever so slightly. For one, Jordanian commodities are not competitive in terms of quality or price. Two: We do not produce enough of the products that actually do have a market in Iraq.”

​Noteworthy is the fact that the exemptions decision is not a new one, said financial economist, head of Al Ghad's business department and columnist, Yousef Damra. “Jordan used to export more than 500 products exempt of custom duties and fees to Iraq. This agreement cuts the list of exempt Jordanian exports to a little over 360 products,” he noted.

Vice Chairman of Petra Engineering Industries Company and Jordanian Exports Association President Omar Abu Wishah believes otherwise, namely, that the door-to-door arrangement will increase the operational capacity of the land shipping sector.

In regards to boosting exportation to Iraq, he also believes it can be done in a year’s time. “In fact, with the exemptions, and if we really play fair-game with our competitors, it is possible that Jordan doubles it exports to Iraq within 2019,” he said. His position is that there are a number of quality Jordanian products that the Iraqi market can absorb, provided that costs are cut to boost competitiveness, and that Jordanian exports can be set to rival even Turkish producers.

It is not that the Jordanian private sector is relying on the government to secure a share in the Iraqi market for them, he said, but rather “that much of the costs of producing and exporting to Iraq are controlled by government regulation and policy. The government has a part to do in this”. “Authorities need to facilitate exportation to Iraq and cut costs, which include power and transportation costs,” he said.

If the costs of manufacturing, production and transport are not optimised to boost exporter profitability, the quality of the products in export will be questionable and the overall operation may not be feasible for exporters to engage, he argued. “This is aside to the issue of taxation under the new Income Tax Law. The government has to compensate for these increased costs, all of them, for businesses to retain a level of profitability that would allow them to export with ease,” Abu Wishah underlined.

Without such exemptions, facilities and privileges, he insisted, Jordan will never be able to compete with Turkey, Iran, the US or the Saudis and Emiratis in Iraq.

Akel agrees that the door-to-door mechanism will help boost the profitability of exportation for Jordanian producers, but argues that exports lack competitiveness as well. “Aside from the absolute economic overlord in Iraq, [the] US, Jordan is up against the Iranians and the Turks, in a race for the Iraqi market. We are on relatively good terms with the Iranians, who have political leverage in Iraq to funnel their products, and the price offering to back its competitive advantage. The Turks, on the other hand, have the combined advantage of quality and pricing,” he said.

To that, Media Minister and Government Spokesperson Jumana Ghunaimat confirmed during the closed press meeting with Razzaz in Baghdad that work was under way to construct renewable energy facilities for industrial use, to lower the costs of energy for Jordanian manufacturers and exporters. She also added that the exemptions on the Iraqi side will add to the comparative cost advantage of Jordanian exports.

Doubling down on the reassurances, Razzaz followed up with promises to see the imminent implementation of the oil pipeline, which will allow Jordan to procure 10,000 barrels of oil on a daily basis. “But is that enough?” Akel asked.

Short on competitiveness

​Much of the cost structure is energy, not only in terms of powering structures and industrial facilities, but also in terms of transportation costs, as well as in terms of input costs for manufacturing, he said. “The oil pipeline will take years to construct, and it will meet Israel’s resistance, for geopolitical reasons that have to do with the Iranian influence and the unsavoury relations between Iraq and Israel. I mean, we have seen this before. The pipeline is an old project that has never come through and is unlikely to see the light of day. And without the low-cost oil, regardless of the pipeline, much of the competitiveness of Jordanian exports will be lost, regardless of the exemptions,” Akel underlined.

As for the industrial estate, “I doubt the Iraqis have much interest in it,” he said. “The Iraqis want to build their domestic economic and industrial capabilities, and to be honest, the border is too far removed from the industrial centres in Iraq, making transportation domestically, to and from the estate, too costly and uncompetitive. In other words, the hopes hung on these deals to rejuvenate trade and exports are a little too out of proportion,” warned Akel.

Like Ababneh, but contrary to his optimism, Marji also agrees that Jordan has lost its exclusive export advantage, “with Turkey, Iran and the US being the largest shareholders in the Iraqi market. There are also Saudi Arabia and the UAE to watch out for”. There are still political barriers to the restoration of trade and ties in general between Iraq and the Arab Gulf, but it is only a matter of time, Marji noted.

Scrambling for foothold

“In almost all fields of exportation, the Saudis have developed industries that can easily drive Jordanian goods out of the Iraqi market, due to the competitive price offering and quality, not to mention that Jordan will soon be competing with the US via Saudi Arabia, as some of the world’s most prominent corporations — Procter and Gamble for instance — are producing and exporting out of Saudi Arabia.”

What remains for Jordan are some of the raw materials and minerals produced locally, such as phosphate and cement, which can hold a massive share in the Iraq market, but are not produced in enough quantities to compensate for the shrinkage of Jordan’s exports in foodstuffs, for example, or chemicals, Marji underlined. “We can, of course, export ICT expertise and services, both directly and indirectly. This is a field we have a relative advantage in, compared with other economies in the region. We can certainly help with the Iraqi government’s digitisation effort, as well as other related fields,” the economist highlighted.

In regards to commodities, traditional exports in particular, Jordanian products stands a small chance, if the private sector does not immediately turns inwards to boost the quality of their exports, Marji stressed.

He contended that the Iraqi consumer would soon see less costly options, and that the confidence they have in Jordanian products will not withstand the abundance of suitable choices. “There is appreciation for the Jordanian role over the years and confidence in Jordan, as a country, but there is little trust in Jordanian products, as Jordanian industrialists had often exploited the loose standards Iraqi authorities had set for Jordanian products,” Marji noted. This came at the expense of confidence in Jordanian commodities, he continued.

​Abu Wishah agreed with Marji, but argued that some exporters maintained a reputable level of quality and service, since before the US occupation of Iraq in 2003. He stressed that the Iraqi importers do not stick to their previous impressions on the shortcomings of some of Jordan’s exporters in the time of the embargo on Iraq.

Apart from supply issues, there is the question of the Iraqi market itself, its own purchasing power and demand. “Aside maybe to ICT, the Iraqi market has neither the demand nor the purchasing power to absorb massive quantities of other Jordanian exports, even if [our] industrialists magically managed to produce the quantities in question of specific commodities that other economies in the region do not produce,” Marji suggested.

Re-penetration

For example, Jordan’s total exports of phosphate in 2017 stood at some 5.2 million tonnes, amounting in value to some JD586 million, a Jordan Phosphate Mining Company (JPMC) statement in April 2018 said. Data provided by the Department of Statistics puts phosphate exports to Iraq in 2016 at JD371.6 million. It should be noted that this particular mineral is readily available for export as a raw material, with minimal processing and manufacturing or development needed.

If Jordan were to focus solely on exporting phosphate to Iraq, the JPMC has to double its exports and split it evenly between Iraq and the rest of the world, for the economy to begin to compensate for the decline in demand for other exports driven out from the Iraqi market by competitors.

Combined, Jordan’s total exports of pharmaceuticals, fertilisers, raw phosphate and potash in 2017 amounted to some JD1.03 billion, at 23 per cent of the total export mix. Jordan’s overall exports amount to around JD4.35 billion worth of goods and commodities, including national products and re-exports.

Although data by the Department of Statistics does not show Jordanian exports of phosphate and potash to Iraq in specific, they do show that among the Kingdom’s top industrial goods exported to Iraq in 2017 were pharmaceutical products and fertilisers, at JD61.8 million and JD47.3 million, respectively. That said, Marji argued, is there demand in Iraq for these raw minerals and materials? If so, is there the purchasing power to consume and absorb these quantities?

Contrarily, Akel suggests that Jordan focuses on low-tech, low-cost products in order to re-penetrate the Iraqi market and not clash against the tides of Turkish and Iranian products. Abu Wishah disagreed. “We must not deny any exporter the chance to benefit from the opportunity presented by the underway and coming facilitation of exportation to Iraq.”

Focusing on one, two or three products will be counterproductive, he warned.

The governments of both Iraq and Jordan must do their part in regards to tax, custom and fee exemptions, as well as power cost reductions.“Leave the rest to the private sector and the market to sort itself out, and our exports will surely regain their competitiveness and shares, not only in the Iraqi market, but beyond. The government must hurry in its promised facilities, which we have been waiting for since the beginning of 2018, before time runs out and our regional competitors leave no place for us; then the mission will be doubly impossible,” Abu Wishah concluded.

Achievable as it may be, Jordanian exporters are hopeful, yet worried, that the needed facilities to boost trade and competitiveness for their products may not come in time before the Iraqi market is completely overrun by rival commodities. 

February 2 is the hour-zero for Jordanian-Iraqi trade ties, as much is promised to change, to rejuvenate what the Iraqi ambassador reaffirms to be an “exquisite”, mutually-beneficial relationship.

MilitiaMan post #44 01-10-19

Thanks Samson!!!

This is a long article be sure, but, clearly Jordan wants a hand in the cookie jar.. Contracts!! Many are in progress and underway..They are waiting on promises from 2018.. Well, it sure seems they took time to tell us the pros and cons.. They mean business.. A good thing.. (IMO) lol imo ~ MM

https://www.globalnegotiator.com/international-trade/dictionary/export-contract/
https://www.giz.de/expertise/html/3270.html

Popeye7 » January 14th, 2018

SK... As I was reading the article that date 2 February stood out like a sore thumb... Groundhog Day as well... IMO, you did a great synopsis of this article... Got to the meat of the matter so to speak... Thanks to you, and to Samson for posting the article... The 2nd of February is on a Saturday, which would make the 1st of Feb. Friday... Perfect time to post that new rate IMHO...

MilitiaMan » January 14th, 2018

It was a good and long article that has the pros and cons of what Jordan has before her as a country in trade competition with other nations.

Their King arrived today and according to the articles they have deals in place that will be and are underway already.

As earlier noted today about the pipeline out of Basra in the south going to the north. So, the other many items to a lesser extent may / will be sorted out. The fact that so many heads of state are showing up into Iraq lately is phenomenal and a show of solidarity in the re construction effort of and in Iraq.

Yes, and you touched on the mineral trade Jordan has her eyes on, as has the USA, Great Britain, China, etc.. 

Lets not forget that in the American Gold Rush days, the miners made a killing but the merchants selling to the companies and their employees made the lion share.. Every new good paying job supports 3-10 more in cases...

A very powerful time to the in Iraq's new found system.. imo ~ MM