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DINARESGURUS.BLOGSPOT.COM_________________ _______

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

New IQD NEWS (RANT # 74)

New IQD NEWS (RANT # 75)

IQD CHAT, 30 JAN

Dullenih: Available for sale:Commodity: Iraqi Basra Light Crude Oil Origin: Iraq Quality: Specification of Product Basra Light Crude Oil Term contract : 12 months PRICE : 69,00$ per barrel Payment : LC at sight Delivery : FOB PORT OF BASRA/ SOUTH IRAQ
 
Clay: @Dullenih wow went way up
 
Dullenih: they start offering their products from east to west now
 
Clay: @Dullenih WTO soon I hope
 
Dullenih: yesterday we got bitumen for asphalt and now we got their oil
Dullenih: @Clay yes but if they had start offering means they are in wto condition now
 
Dullenih: @Clay lol
 
Clay: @Dullenih sure hope so

Baxter: how do you know that for sure?
 
Clay: @Baxter I still think we need WTO
 
Baxter: so do I
Baxter: they have to be in article 8 dont they
 
Clay: @Baxter that will knock the artificial rate out
Clay: @Baxter thinkin so
 
Dullenih: to know for sure you can try to send LOI ICPO for ordering their oil :)
 
Baxter: I havent seen anything about them being in article 8
 
Clay: @Baxter me neither
 
Dullenih: never ever like this before even last year i never seen Iraq offering or trying selling their products across the world to south east asia openly to all traders in spore and dubai officially. Even there is only to turkey or china or others in bilateral G to G but never to public like this . do they need in article 8 for open trade? well hope this is good for our investment
 
Baxter: they need to be in article 8 to have an international currency...
 
Dullenih: you mean they need art 8 first before doing the international trade?
 
Baxter: that I dont know... but for us to do anything with this dinar... the only way the banks will accept it is if they are in article 8..
 
Baxter: bbl
 
Doug_W: @Clay uve got mail
 
Dave: Good morning.....did not think a country a sanctioned country could be article 8 or be member of the WTO
 
Doug_W: GA Dave
Doug_W: ooops noon news is on
Doug_W: bbl
 
Dave: Good Day Doug
 
blackgold: @Dave that might be, but its been 14 years now, i would think they should be moving out of atricle 14 into 8
 
Dave: not while under sanctions
 
blackgold: @Dave its been 14 years
blackgold: @Dave don't you think they should be moving out
 
Tebow: might be another 14
 
Dave: Kuuwati conference may be what we are looking for?
 
blackgold: @Dave If it is, that means someone in our government dupe us by letting people come in and sell the currency in the first place knowing what the result would be
 
blackgold: @Dave hope so
blackgold: @Dave But they have been hold these conferences in Iraq for years now, why would Kuwaits be any different
 
blackgold: @Dave same people
 
blackgold: @Dave different ocation
blackgold: @Dave location
 
Dave: finalizing that deal for natural gas 4.8 with Kuwait could be key to lifting sanctions
 
Tebow: @blackgold no one in the government dupped you into buying currency. Man up you made that decision
 
blackgold: @Dave That is true, lets hope so, but I read article 14 and its a bunch of garbage where they can find fault with anything

FUZE TIDBIT, 30 JAN

Well I finally made it in to pick up the dong order. The male lead and foreign currency teller was in and ready to transact.  The bank was relatively empty which was nice for uninterrupted conversation. While he was transacting my purchase,  I asked about the new Foreign Currency system change over.  He said, it was still not activated and then turned to the only other person (woman) behind the teller line and asked her " what's the update,  on the change over"?

She said, the latest memo says, "it's the 6th, so all foreign currency transactions need to be completed and out of queue the night of the 5th". She then volunteered, "I hope they complete it this time,  they've tried this at least 3 times since late November".

I responded, boy I wonder if you guys are going to have a steep learning curve, with this new system? Then the male teller who was waiting on me said, they said "it will be easier because it integrates into our general banking system"! ...I then asked, do you think I can get a few million more dong? He said,  if we get the order in,  you would have to pick it up,  no later than Friday.. 

Folks , I truly believe we are, in the moment.... I will keep you updated... Fuze

TNT UPDATE, 30 JAN

Yada:  One of my friends, whom invested in the Dinar/Dong at the same time I did but we didn't know it at that time, has his own contacts he hears from, the same person who introduced him to the opportunity. He is not on the internet and neither is his friend. He called to confirm if IM hearing the same thing and that is this should be over before Friday. Of course, I was excited and encouraged.

Timth2lman:  uhhhh.....wouldn't something have to happen in Iraq for us to see anything. Wouldn't that happen at 1 to 3 am for us which is 9 to 12 for them. Just asking?

Luvwulfs:  timth that is my thinking, when they open for business and when we are going to bed. Like a thief in the night as they say.

KajunRedBull:  tim...no because the banks were giving the ok when they are ready regardless of Iraq...However, I can understand the banks/UST hesitation because Iraq does not have a gold star with following schedules. Which in turn does seem to reflect back to favor waiting for Iraq to move first.

Yada:  well stated Kajun,,,,,,,,,,might add the 1 to 1 in Iraq is not the same as the conversion in the US,,,that 1 dinar in Iraq is converted to $4.71 in the US,,,,

RV/INTELLIGENCE ALERT - January 30, 2018

Multiple Cabal-MIC surveillance and weapon satellites in orbit were shot down this month by the Alliance.

Ghost Operatives successfully destroyed multiple undisclosed Cabal biological weapon laboratories hosting diseases and viruses such as the flu.

Trump will be giving his State of the Union address today which will be a pivot point for the transition process to proceed.

Private humanitarian were informed to prepare for the RV exchanges this week.

Current RV release window remains at 11:58 PM tonight to after midnight at 12:01 AM.

Operation Disclosure

DR CLARKE UPDATE, 30 JAN

DR. CLARKE (1-30-18): 

Could the CBI actually print Publicly, on it’s website, a Dinar Rate of at least $1.00 - 1 Dinar,
FEBRUARY 1, 2018?

Did someone say, “This Will ALL Be Over, by FEBRUARY 28, 2018?”

We don’t Know……We were just Asking?

Maybe someone else knows?……. “IL-LOGICALLY” of course.

Dr. Clarke

DINAR GURUS UPDATE, 30 JAN

1-30-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru Mnt Goat   The process is moving so quickly. Sometimes I still think Iraq is trying to buy time, as we are seeing repeat articles once again on the paying of some salaries. These have fresh dates on them but we know they are old and this business is already taken care of. So this is one concern I have.  The other concern is the passing of the 2018 budget and the Article 140 ...The budget is yet another one I am trying to figure out. I think perhaps the stalling for time is related to this issue.  In the past
 I told you that when the re-instatement occurs it will happen first in Iraq. Iraq will go to 1:1... ONLY within Iraq. 
They are not lopping the zeros off for currency outside of Iraq.  We are living outside Iraq and will exchange our dinar for a global currency exchange rate such as on FOREX.   [post 1 of 3....stay tuned]

1-30-2018   Intel/Newshound Guru Angelquest    Article:  "Did the international community in Davos abandon the reconstruction of Iraq?"   Time to put your big boy pants on now Abadi, get the budget taken care of, get the bad guys put in jail, and know it is time for Iraq to stand on it's own 2 feet just like everyone else. The international community wants a stable government before they invest, not a maybe elections in May, maybe pass the budget, maybe prosecute the bad guys maybe not. I wouldn't want my money tied up in Iraq until there are major changes. I think this will be a major wake up call for Abadi and Iraq.

1-30-2018   Newshound/Intel Guru BGG   Article:  “Associated Press: Donor countries will ask Iraq guarantees not to go to corrupt money”  This is EXACTLY the case I have been laying out. Abadi is on a roll – but he needs to keep rolling!!  [reference Guru mike post 1-28-2018]

1-30-2018   Newshound Guru mike   Article quote:  "...confirmed that Iraq imports 99 percent of its needs, indicating it is estimated at 50 billion dollars."   Iraq is relying on the Balassa-Samuelson effect in order to slowly raise the value of the dinar that exports create. There won't be any demand for the dinar if they don't stop importing everything they consume and start creating their own goods.

Is the Iraqi Dinar Investment a Wise Investment? , 30 JAN

What does it mean to "invest" in the Iraqi dinar? In simple terms, it's conducted in the same fashion as any currency investment. You purchase ‘x’ Iraqi dinar (IQD) by paying ‘y’ U.S. dollars (or your domicile currency). As with buying stocks, bonds or other currency, you purchase dinar at a given price and then expect the price to rise. The real question, though, is not just "can" you invest in this particular currency, but rather "should" you invest. (Check out Investopedia's large selection of forex tutorials.)

Is there the possibility of a scam in such an investment scheme? 


Financial scams usually have certain characteristics. A few tip-offs include:


  • If the scheme is run and promoted by individual agents instead of known entities;
  • If there are heavy unofficial promotions through internet/emails/telemarketing calls instead of open and fair marketing;
  • If transactions occur primarily through street-based dealers, high variations in available rates, and high markup fees yet promises of overly exaggerated returns.


In the case of the Iraqi dinar investment scheme, there might be additional red flags:


  • Reputed banks (e.g. Wells Fargo) abstaining from offering forex trading in Iraqi dinars;
  • States like Utah issuing warnings against such investments;
  • Very wide bid-ask spreads; and
  • Impractical reasoning (discussed below) justifying Iraqi dinar as a "perfectly safe" and "sure-shot high return" investment scheme.


All these factors give rise to further doubt (See Investopedia's tutorial on Investment Scams.).

The basics of forex



First, here's a very rudimentary explanation of what it means to invest in a currency. For example, let's say the Iraqi dinar forex rate is 1 US$ = 1160 IQD (as is the case, approximately, in August 2014). If you invest US$1000 in Iraqi dinars with that rate, you will get IQD 1.16 million. After this “investment,” you will wait and watch, expecting the IQD to rise against the US$. If your expectations come true, and the exchange rate improves to a hypothetical value--say 1 USD = 1 IQD, then your investment is now worth US$1.16 million. Under this hypothesis, the investor would become a millionaire by investing US$1000, which grew to US$1.16 million.
But what happens if the dinar takes the opposite direction? Say it deteriorates to 1 US$ = 2000 IQD. Now your invested holding of IQD1.16 million is only worth US$580. Effectively, you have lost $420 on your investment.

The big question, Is the Iraqi dinar Investment a hyped scam or can any profitability be achieved?


First, let’s begin with the positives:

Although speculative thoughts about Iraqi dinar Investments have been going around for a long time, there were developments based on reports which led to spike in speculation in IQD-US$ trading (like the statement  issued by IMF around mid-2007, in the post-Saddam Hussein era). It mentioned  the International Compact with Iraq, which was interpreted in multiple ways and led to further speculation in the Iraqi dinar currency trading.
“(Iraqi Authorities) have taken some courageous measures, including the gradual increase in domestic fuel prices and, starting in 2007, the elimination of all direct budgetary fuel subsidies, except for kerosene. Iraq has also embarked on an ambitious structural reform program, in order to make the transition to a more market-based economy.” 
The article further states:

“To combat inflation, action has been initiated on three fronts. First, the Central Bank of Iraq raised its policy interest rates sharply and allowed a gradual appreciation of the dinar. These measures aimed to de-dollarize the economy in order to enhance the central bank's control over monetary conditions, and also to reduce imported inflation.”
Just prior to these, the IQD-USD exchange rate was around 1270 (April 2007) and as of August 2014 it is around 1160 – a positive return of around 8.5%. No big significant price moves have been observed since then, considering the long duration.
Trends further down the line will depend on the current and future developments in the region.

Current Situation & Future Prospects of Iraq:


Civil war, regional fights and western countries staying away are major concerns of current Iraq, with the extreme possibility of the country splitting into three separate regions. If that happens, the payday may as well never come for investors holding Iraqi dinar and waiting for value appreciation.

Backed by the oil reserves, Iraq has the potential to spring back and establish itself as a stable economy. It managed to do so after the eight-year long Iran-Iraq war. But that will need a peaceful, promising business atmosphere to establish investor confidence, which will in turn help revive its economy and bring back the IQD forex rate to realistic levels.

Now to the other side of the coin:

There are reasons pointing to Iraqi dinar investments being a hyped scam, most important factor being IQD literally trading in the “forex black market” instead of regular banks and trading desks. Additionally, the following incorrect statements are heavily publicized by the propagators of Iraqi dinar Investment schemes:


  1. “IQD is heavily undervalued at present and will rise significantly against USD in mid-to-long term due to a pending revaluation bound to happen soon”


Supporters of Iraqi dinar Investment are reported to be confusing the two economic terms - Revaluation vs. Redenomination.
Revaluation is the actual calculated adjustment made to a country's official exchange rate relative to a chosen baseline (gold or USD). Revaluation results in that currency becoming expensive to the base currency by the factor of adjustment and hence changes the purchasing power of that currency.
Redenomination is done in case of high inflation levels by old high value notes being made equal to new small value notes (1000 Old dinars = 1 New dinar). It simply drops off the zeroes keeping the purchasing power the same as before.
There are confirmed news items that Iraq did plan to redenominate its currency, but not revaluate. In the absence of any revaluation, there is going to be no change in the forex exchange rate of Iraqi dinar IQD (with or without redenomination).
Economists also point out that it would not be beneficial to the Iraqi economy to allow any such value appreciation by the authorities (even by means of revaluation). Doing so will lead to multiple problems for Iraq:


  • The inability to repay the national debts due to revised valuations
  • Literally putting barricades for foreign companies to enter Iraq for business
  • Overall restricted growth in the post-war era, due to ripple effects of above


2.     “Similar 'Revaluation' Of Kuwaiti dinar is a historical proof”
Some try to encourage investment in the Iraqi dinar based on the success case of the “revaluation” of the Kuwaiti dinar (KWD), which today is a high valued currency.
However, this is misleading. While the official Kuwait Government Site does mention a new release of notes following the Iraqi invasion,  there wasn’t any revaluation. The new release was to prevent use of stolen and looted old Kuwaiti dinars.  
In the Kuwaiti example, the pre-war forex rates were retained, simply changing the bank notes.

It is also impractical -- and economically impossible -- to “revalue” a currency in such a way that its value increases many fold, without there being a real addition to the reserves.
3. "Post War development may take time, but always gives good results"

Examples of European countries like the Netherlands, UK, etc. are cited in this case in an attempt to justify an Iraqi dollar investment. These other countries managed to make a rapid comeback from the effects of World War II, and are today considered among the developed countries.

One important fact missed here is that these countries were able to progress faster because the war situation was completely different from the Iraq War. It was then a case of world war where the European countries in question were on the winning side and got maximum support in the post-war aftermath.

The case of Iraq, by contrast, is more of a civil war, where there exists a possibility of the country being split into multiple fragments. Even if it stays as one nation, it will still take a good long time for the economy to recover.

4. “Executive Order 13303 gives Americans special legal rights to hold or invest in Iraqi dinar”

Order 13303 is for protection of “the Development Fund for Iraq, Iraqi oil products and interests – including ownership by U.S. persons – from any legal attachments or liens”.  It does not mention rights or protection for investments in Iraqi dinar, at all, by anyone.
5. The Iraqi dinar is still a good buy, even without a “revaluation”

This is based on the strong belief by a few investors that Iraq’s oil reserves and development potential make the dinar a good purchase.  Some investors argue that the market could drive a strong appreciation for the Iraqi dinar in the post war era, simply because the huge oil reserves will eventually make it a strong currency.
Similar to Iraqi dinar, similar rumors are reported for Vietnamese dong and, most recently, the Egyptian pound.

Can a short term high-frequency trader benefit from IQD-USD forex trading?


Possibly Yes, but practically No.

The reason is that the IQD-US$ forex trading market is virtually non-existent. No banks are offering Iraqi dinars. If you have to buy Iraqi dinars, you can buy them only at select money exchangers, who may or may not be legally registered. Secondly, they charge a hefty markup fee, to the tune of up to 20%, for such transactions. This will erode  the profit potential even for short term trading.

Can this be a good bet for a long term investment?


Forex trading in general comes with a few challenges:


  • Overvalued profit potential based on investor’s misconceptions.
  • The misleading practices of foreign exchange dealers as forex is primarily an OTC market. Further complications and malpractice exist in trading such illiquid and unregulated asset class.
  • Investors' basic ignorance about international forex valuations
  • Loss aversion – investors holding onto loss-making assets further deteriorating the valuations of their investments


How Iraq, its economy and hence the forex rate develop over the long term, is going to be a long term uncertain bet.

The Bottom Line:


Trading forex currencies is always risky, as external factors at international levels are difficult to control or predict. Unless you are trading on regulated markets or through regulated agents, traders and investors should use extreme caution for trading such currencies.