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Sunday, May 13, 2018

IQD CHAT, 13 MAY

PMchattels    Kirk H. Sowell@UticaRisk   #InsideIraqiPolitics readers will note that we highlighted Ali's campaign in the issue just out as one of those secularists who we thought might suffer both from the division of secular parties as well as the boycott.

chattels    So right now Iraqi media saying IHEC says participation 35-40%, so even the 40% figure, which is a major low, probably won't be reached.

chattels    Whatever the final figure, congrats to Iraqis on this point. The lack of violence is very important. Developing a well-functioning democracy takes any country many years, but this is important.
 ...
​chattels    So with the polls closed, it is being reported that the participation % is only around 40%. This is a 1/3 decline from 2014, when 60% of eligible Iraqis voted. Even the 2009 provincial elections had 51%, well over this, as reported right now.

chattels    So the perception is that the boycott efforts more or less succeded. If that is true, & participation is notably down, I'd blame the ultra-bland election campaign. The reduction in sectarian inflammation is good, but most blocs replaced it with camaigns void of policy content.

Professor Dinard    chattels you think fear of terrorist attacks caused a low turn out?

chattels    Anyone wanting a live feed on Iraq's elections, click on the second box at the top from the left (بث مباشر), then there are two large panels, click on the right-side panel.
http://www.alsharqiyatv.com/

chattels    Professor Dinard Kirk H. Sowell @UticaRisk Kirk H. Sowell Retweeted Angela Korras

No. I think very little of the low participation was due to the security threat. It was due to the empty nature of the campaign. We saw this coming & were expecting a decline in participation, although I didn't think it would fall this much.

chattels    So results are not expected to be out for up to 48 hours, perhaps somewhat less, I presume sometime afternoon Monday. Votes are being counted electronically for the first time, so the long waits of past elections shouldn't repeat.

chattels    The Sadrists should benefit from the low participation. Do not be surprised if the Sadrist Sairun bloc beats expectations & comes in second after Abadi, beating Ameri's Fatah Alliance. Sadr should beat Maliki & Hakim by a wide margin, perhaps even combined.

Chattels    A key difference being that the Sadrist movement didn't split in half like Hakim's, or in multiple pieces, like the PUK. Our final assessment on Suli was that PUK ran a very weak campaign, but even putting fraud aside, will be helped by oppositionists running separately.

chattels     https://twitter.com/UticaRisk?lang=en

Professor Dinard    chattels i see. i wonder if people thinking it doesnt matter since they are all corrupt played a factor. would be nice to speak with an iraqi

edesem   Hi probably been asked all day, How is Abadi doing with the voters??
Chattels    edesem Results within 48 hours they say.

chattels     Florian Neuhof @FlorianNeuhof

#ISIS is only able to disrupt elections in areas south of Kirkuk, where some jihadists still hold out in. Thankfully, a fairly peaceful election day in #Iraq

chattels     David M. Witty @DavidMWitty  13 Iraqis killed by improvised explosive device on road leading to voting center in Kirkuk province. ISIS attack on security checkpoint in Kirkuk province leaves 6 dead & 2 injured. ISIS mortar attacks on 2 voting centers in Diyala province injures 4.     http://mobp.as/R3aUl

Whitelions    It really dose not matter what % of the people voted to us what matters is who wins and how they will work with what is already in place .

chattels     High Electoral Commission in Iraq announced this evening for "the success of the voting process," the parliamentary elections, noting that the turnout was more than 44 percent, with most of the electoral vote-counting centers.

The transfer site "Alsumaria News" about the electoral administration in Iraq, President of Riad al-Badran told a news conference with a number of members of the Electoral Commission that "participation in the public and private polling generality of Iraq, the percentage stood at 52.44 percent, with the calculation of the number of voters, which amounted to more than 10 million of the total 24 million eligible to vote. "
​Al-Badran added that "this figure is not final as the results of a number of polling stations did not reach so far," adding that it "will be completed tomorrow, send all the papers to check the results."

Al-Badran pointed out that "all the rumors about manipulation or falsification of unfounded and there are actors trying to shuffle the cards and the jamming of public opinion," calling for "respect for the results of the elections and deal with them according to the law."

The number of 8959 polling stations closed center earlier in the day after the arrival of the Iraqi voters to choose a new parliament.    https://www.sana.sy/?p=753015

Dave     Wonder what the "odds" on Maliki winning his seat again are?

Spectra    Dave 0

ElmerFudd    Lets hope he looses his immunity and winds up getting arrested.

Spectra   ( Results of voting for the official figures: Victory in the first place )

BAGHDAD - Masdar revealed on Saturday (May 12th, 2018) the results of the vote on the official figures, which took place in the Rashid Hotel inside the Green Zone in central Baghdad .

The source said in a press statement that "the number of votes obtained by the victory coalition, headed by Haider al-Abbadi, the current prime minister, reached 111 votes, ranked first, while the coalition of state law, headed by Nuri al-Maliki, the former prime minister, 64 Votes in second place. "

Spectra    He added that "the alliance led by Hadi al-Ameri, secretary general of the Badr Organization, got 49 votes in third place, while the National Coalition, headed by Iyad Allawi, Vice President of the Republic, 32 votes, in fourth place."

The source, who preferred not to be named, said that "the alliance of Sawsan, supported by the leader of the Sadrist movement Muqtada al-Sadr, got 27 votes in fifth place, while the coalition of the resolution, headed by Osama Najafi, Vice President of the Republic, 18 votes in sixth place, while resolving Stream of wisdom led by Ammar al-Hakim on 11 votes in the last position. "

Spectra     The current Prime Minister Haider Abadi, confirmed Saturday 12 May 2018, that the general election in the legislative elections 2018, took place freely and safely in all Iraqi provinces, for the first time after the defeat of the organization in the country, while living security forces and state institutions, the media and all participants In the success of the electoral process .

Spectra     http://almasalah.com/ar/PrintNewspage.aspx?newsid=136545
Spectra ;    Woho its over..

Baxter   where is my money??

Spectra    Baxter im sorry i cant help you with that..lol
Spectra    Baxter i was lookig forward too seeing this election over ...

Baxter     then... it aint OVER.... ;$$$

ElmerFudd    I'm having a hard time believing that Maliki's party got as many votes as they did.

Spectra    Baxter no its not in that respect.lol
Spectra    ElmerFudd they might like him ..We are not them .so im just saying?
Spectra    ElmerFudd he is still around ?

ElmerFudd    I would have thought not.
ElmerFudd    Unless most of the people have Stockholm Syndrome. :)

Xbruster69    [In Baghdad]   Mp demanded the change block hoshiar Abdollah ihec to resort to counting and sorting manually in Kurdistan because serious rig the votes obtained by the ruling parties, the United Nations warned of the possibility of loss of legitimacy of the elections. "

Allah said in a statement all Iraq [where] a copy of the PUK and the Kurdistan Democratic Party had seriously numbers manipulation during the counting and counting, there are many models this manipulation, when you open a bunch of boxes in Sulaimaniya For example there was proposed to change, but the result of counting and sorting email National Union in the foreground.

Abdullah said that "there is resentment and rage in the streets of Kurdistan to threaten civil peace, was stealing votes and confiscating their will, inevitably, count day recounts, otherwise there is no validity to this election."

And that "these violations as we got in other areas of Iraq, and therefore must resort to counting and sorting manually or recreate these elections and adopt correct mechanism instead of this mechanism failed".

Abdullah stressed "the need for urgent intervention by the United Nations and address these flagrant violations, otherwise we'll read fatiha on the legitimacy of this election.

Spectra    ElmerFudd     i have no idea whats with them .lol

Professor Dinard    "Young men feel there's no change," said Jabar. "Most of these candidates mock people with their corruption."
There was little of the euphoria that characterized past elections in Iraq, even in the height of violence in Iraq. Fifteen years after Saddam Hussein was toppled, voters dipping their fingers in purple ink to show they have cast their ballots has become routine. In Baghdad there were fewer parents bringing their children to the polls.

Professor Dinard    anyone know how long for the 90 days in 2% compliance is left? not saying it needs to be but am just curious

Baxter  33   according to you know who

Professor Dinard    Baxter kaperoni!

Baxter    Im shocked that a professor didnt know that..LOL

firefarmer    I have reason to believe that we have not had an RV yet

Baxter     not hardly   but oh... its soon

Professor Dinard     Baxter i dont follow the twittersphere lol. i just googled him right meow though and found thats where hes been posting. i only care about news and events and financial procedures really

Professor Dinard    dont even really go on dinar guru all too much

firefarmer     HMMMMMMMMMM well I just will not get excited yet and retire. Just keep on working and praying for my turn at the golden ring

Xbruster69    Craft will drop off the Assets , Gold backing.. May 15th.. called 2010 WC9

Baxter     that is the only place I know that posts Kap

Professor Dinard    i thought 2010 wc9 was some sort of asteroid lol

Zig    Lots of twitter feeds including Kaperoni are at http://www.iqdcalls.com/twitter.html

Professor Dinard    im not a social media person. dont even have a face books

firefarmer    I was told yesterday the the tier 1,2, and 3 had all been paid....... I think then that I must be on tier 12

Baxter      how could they have been paid...at a tenth of a penny    just more b s

Zig    Tier ** people have been paid....Yes

firefarmer    yes I thought it was all **** talk too

Professor Dinardi think that there is no reason to believe that the election will progress the RV any faster. i think they still might have to get their people back to work first. 20% of people under 30 are unemployed

Professor Dinard     but then again i could be wrong. i am simply a molder of minds not a guru

Firefarmer     well I think that 80% of the American Dinar holders will be retired after the RV
firefarmer     and unemployeed

Professor Dinard    firefarmer probably. i dont like 80% of them anyways lol
Professor Dinard    is your name supposed to mean that you farm that fuego herb my dude?

firefarmer    Professor Dinard no actually I farm for a living and fight fire as a vol fireman for fun
firefarmer    17 years on the department

Professor Dinard    firefarmer oh nice. thanks for putting fires out. we have big problems with those over here

firefarmer    you really question a person's mental state
firefarmer    when you see them running in to a burning house
firefarmer    it is a hot job but some one has to do it

Professor Dinar    did only do it if there was some people in there. or a doggy i know.

Rocketman    I don't believe in any RV anymore. Not logical

firefarmerwhat other occupation can you have where you can go in and totally screw up some ones house and not get in trouble

Professor Dinard    Rocketman are you a floater too? lol

Tebow    maybe you could them change your name to Fire Chief Dinard

Professor Dinard    firefarmer unlicensed contractors do it all the time
Professor Dinard    Tebow very infatuated with my name change arent ya?

firefarmer    yes but the home owner thank me for what I do

Professor Dinard    firefarmer id buy you some beers if you saved my house thats for sure lol

Rocketman    Dinard, not sure or taking a side

Tebow    no just find it funny :laugh

Professor Dinard    Rocketman ahem, its professor dinard now sir. lol

Firefarmer    Tebow then none of my friends would know it is me 
Professor Dinard    Tebow you know why i changed my name right?

Rocketman    This is for those with dreams    Big dreams

Tebow    you want to feel important? Lol

Rocketman    And lots of time

Professor Dinard    wow cant believe people are speaking ill of me on teachers appreciation week

firefarmer    well I wish ever one a happy mother's day remember yours and thank them for giving you life

Firefarmer    Professor Dinard what are you trying to teach us

Professor Dinard    Tebow a certain new mod insulted me by saying i try to hard with research trying to act like a professor so i changed it and embraced the insult instead of crying about it

Tebow     Dinard your not a teacher

Professor Dinard    Tebow its called a joke. i see you have no sense of humor
BREW    i herd  Abadi won the election, just not sure, just received a text.

Professor Dinard    BREW ive been looking for some news on that and havent found any yet.

BREW     friend of mine just text me.

Professor Dinard    i will refresh the google

BREW    Dinard, i will try and find out more.
​...
​Professor Dinard    3:19 a.m.  Maliki taking an early lead in unofficial results: report

Media close to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed his State of Law coalition is taking an early lead as votes are counted.

"Observers confirmed that the number of votes for the State of Law coalition in Basra, Karbala, Dhi Qar, Muthana, Babil, Wasit, and other areas in Baghdad have increased," reported Afaq media.

It will likely be a number of days before official results are released.

Professor Dinard    latest from rudaw live updates link that chattels posted
Professor Dinard    its now 5:oo am there
Professor Dinard    wonder if all the cries of vote tampering will drag this on. wonder what kind of procedures they have for that

chattels    " ............... the results of the vote on the official figures, which took place in the Rashid Hotel inside the Green Zone in central Baghdad." ................. ???????????????

chattels    Was the " vote " at the Rashid Hotel in the green zone by sitting Parliamentarians or some other group ?
Professor Dinard    chattels whered you pull that quote from?

chattels    Professor Dinard Spectra post awhile back
chattels8:29 pm
chattels    Three scenarios await Iraq after failure of the elections

 chattels    According to observers who spoke to The Baghdad Post, Iraq will face severe consequences after the failure of the electoral process, as Iraqi cities are witnessing a low voter turnout.

The observers pointed out that this election will be the worst in the Iraqi history in terms of the low voter turnout. They cited rising militancy and rampant violence under Haider Abadi government.

chattels    The first scenario is that the coalitions and parties competing in the elections will hold a secret deal between them to rig elections in order to remain in power as well as forming the new government.

This scenario is very dangerous due to Iraqi national blocs, especially Saairun Alliance, rejection to this deal as it do not express the will of the Iraqi people.

chattels    The second scenario, which is currently being prepared according to informed sources, is that a wave of terrorist attacks will be launched in order to cover the election scandal, especially after the High Electoral Commission (HEC) confirmed that Iraqi cities are witnessed a low voter turnout.

chattels    The last scenario, according to the observers, is that the coalitions and blocs running in the parliamentary elections will accept their defeat in the elections, as well as accepting Abbadi's continuation in his position until announcing a date for a new elections.

chattels    The Shiites and Sunnis in Iraq displayed unity against the rule of those residing in the Green Zone and decided to boycott the parliamentary elections.

The Shiite majority in the south announced its support to the boycott campaign in order to face the political corruption in Iraq.

Voters in Anbar province and Tikrit city also decided to boycott the Iraqi Parliamentary elections.

chattels    Politicians and religious leaders question the integrity of the election, asserting it will witness a lot of irregularities especially in the areas where the Iran-backed militias have the upper hand. The highest voter turnout in the parliamentary elections was witnessed in the Iranian cities.

chattels    http://www.thebaghdadpost.com/en/story/27251/Three-scenarios-await-Iraq-after-failure-of-the-elections
chattels    Courtesy DinarAlert

chattels    The low voter turnout / boycott may mean more that meets the eye. We shall see.

Professor Dinard    almost as corrupt as our voting system lol
Professor Dinard    i wonder if they had dead people vote like over here
Professor Dinard    BREW any more news from your friend?

chattels    In Baghdad, Iraqis embrace return to normalcy, with eye on its fragility

chattels    In Baghdad the differences are striking: Blast walls are coming down, malls are going up, and streets are reopening. But as Iraq's capital sheds the visual reminders of war's long, painful grip,

is it enough to just wish peace into existence? Baghdad isn't letting its guard down completely, but the fatigue with fighting and yearning for normalcy are changing the face of the city

chattels    “People are tired of sectarianism, tired of violence, tired of fighting. They just want to move on with life, to develop the country. They want good schools, good hospitals, good roads, and good paying jobs…. Is that so much to ask?”

chattels    https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2018/0507/In-Baghdad-Iraqis-embrace-return-to-normalcy-with-eye-on-its-fragility

Dave    ...and Maliki has an early lead in the elections......

Professor Dinard    Dave dont know much about maliki. was he a bad dude?

chattels    " Media close to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed his State of Law coalition is taking an early lead as votes are counted."

Dave    he is our buddy that has kept us in this game

chattels    " Media close to former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed ............"
Dave    hehe.....

chattels    Early results and unconfirmed for Erbil's 15 seats:

- KDP 8.
- PUK 3.
- New Generation 2.
- Gorran 1.
- Islamic Group 1.

If confirmed, surprise showing by New Generation and predicted dominance of KDP.

Chattels
https://twitter.com/IraqShamel/status/995427356985692161

chattels    Al-Abbadi's list tops the preliminary results of the elections, followed by Sadr's list
chattels    Lost the link    informal results though, sort of like an exit poll

BREW    chattels no results yet
.
chattels    BREW it was to be about 48 hours on any official results as of 6:00 yesterday
BREW    chattels Thanks.

chattels    BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s list appears to be leading in Iraq’s parliamentary election, followed by influential Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s alliance, an election commission source and a security official told Reuters on Sunday.

The sources cited unofficial initial results.

chattels    http://www.oann.com/pm-abadi-appears-ahead-in-iraq-election-followed-by-sadr-list-initial-results/ 
Chattels    Even if Abadi’s Victory Alliance wins the most seats, he still must negotiate a coalition government, which must be formed within 90 days of the election. And, If parliament chooses him as prime minister, Abadi ................

chattels    It is very interesting that Sadr is second, which KIrk Sowell rather predicted based upon low voter turnout.

chattels    As election data rolls in, Kurdish politician predicts Iraqi winner needs ally By Rudaw

http://www.rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/130520182

chattels    The formation of the new government shouldn't be expected until after the Ramadan and Eid holidays, according to Zebari.

chattels    Zebari said following the announcement of the final results, the KDP will work to “put the Kurdish house in order” and get the Kurdish parties united in Baghdad.

BREW    chattels so much for there new voting system.

chattels    BREW Reports are generally good I think.
IQD CHAT

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