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Thursday, May 3, 2018

CHAT with DELTA, 3 MAY

SJosh:  I believe Frank and WS have addressed this point VERY well already, though I meditated on this today myself and I felt drawn to share my reflection of how "real" this is getting.

It happens to me too - I get stuck looking at what HASN'T happened "by now" instead of watching the dominos fall and looking back at what all HAS taken place... ESPECIALLY since the beginning of this year. Reflecting back on what we've seen play out, we have watched this "zoom in" from a macro (LARGE scale) level to a micro (personal/small scale) level, as NEEDED to happen for them to dial in success on ALL of these levels.

This is an IMO synopsis of what has occurred most prominently since the turn of the year:

End of December 2017: USTreasury posts an official statement that they have lifted all sanctions between the US and Iraq

(think, BIG level - this is "opening the door", so to speak, between the countries internationally)
....
January 2018: LOTS of articles from Iraq stating they were regaining border controls, creating security country-wide; focusing and weeding out corruption, creating trust and stability.

(next domino, Iraq is opening the next "doors", internally in their own country-level paving the way)

February 2018: LOTS of articles from World Bank, IMF, US stating Iraq was a great investment opportunity, speaking to the building trust and stability seen manifesting; Iraq declaring they are "free of ISIS", affirming their reigns on security is tightening; Iraq articles stating they are ready to rebuild/reconstruct their country again, showing they are ready to "play ball" and be friendly with the world;  Kuwait conference bringing in TONS of international business interest/contracts to assist in the efforts from all of the above; Abadi promises to follow through on what he told the world.

(another domino, international interest is now brought into Iraq, confirmations of progress and efforts made to look forward to rebuild instead of solely focusing on looking back to clean up the old mess)

March 2018: Iraq and Kuwait agree and approve their country budget, for the first time in MANY years - and it is only MARCH! (Recall that in December 2017 they were STILL kicking around the 2017 budget even though the year was already over...); Articles about banking systems, CBI begins to share about ATMs and more about training.

(another domino, inside Iraq we see the governments working together and actually getting things done, on top of this we see the governments letting the CBI/banks to begin to control their own activities)

April 2018: CBI/Alak affirming 2% compliance and W.A.R. (We Are Ready!!!); CBI openly working with the AMF as well as other countries to re-establish trade deals and create unity; CBI requiring banks to accept ALL forms of Iraq currency; Financial inclusion week publicly/openly launching directly to the CITIZENS, getting them set up in the new banking system and re-establishing the TRUST in the stability of Iraq's banks (which has been gone for almost 30 years!).

(HUGE dominos falling as we REALLY see this starting to manifest things at the micro level: direct public mentions that the banks are compliant and the citizens are now deeply intertwined in on the progress)

May 2018: Looking forward now, the connections continue to firm up and now that Iraq has dialed in the "security" and "stability", they finally hone in on the right "environment":

1. May 12th brings about their elections, and from what we've seen come together, the citizens look to be supporting many of the same head figures. "IF" this RI is not announced before these happen, supporting the same group would cause for the LEAST resistance, as progress could continue/flow without new people potentially wanting to steer different ways.
2. May 16th begins Ramadan, which is a month-long Muslim holiday (goes until June 14th). Having a month of holiday in the country would make for an EXCELLENT time period where a new rate could be integrated during lower activity levels.

This all stated VERY broadly! We also have insiders like WS & Delta feeding us info about bank memos, ATM activation plans; we see MOU's with international requirements before they can become contracts, citizens getting back pay, market rates reaching a point where auctions no longer make a profit (and are therefore MUST phase out, just like any other business that cannot make the funds to support itself).

My own reflection on this, and even going as far as writing this out REALLY helped me to affirm how far we've come and how close we are RIGHT NOW.

Will it happen tomorrow? Probably not. But it could.

Will it happen this month? Maybe. I'd like to hope so, but also know the value of patience in this endeavor.

Will it happen this year? HIGHLY likely.

Especially considering this is the first year in over a decade that Iraq didn't announce a delay in their fiscal reforms before the end of January.

Will it happen? YES - it literally MUST at this point!

All these pieces coming together have gotten Iraq WAY past the "point of no return". They are handing out chipped/international cards to citizens, approving VISAs for international companies to come into Iraq to help rebuilding efforts, partnering with the IMF, WB, AMF and a plethora of international trade agreements.

Iraq desires to pull this off PERFECTLY, SUCCESSFULLY, in ONE shot. This is one of the LARGEST international/financial actions that will have taken place since this century.

Honestly, I don't blame them. I've found the ability to sit in the NOW, cheering Iraq on from my own "peanut gallery" and watching the story unfold. I look at it like a great book or movie ~ sure, I may want to jump right to the end, but if I do I'd miss the whole journey and likely not appreciate the conclusion nearly as much.

My suggestion is to make some popcorn sit back, relax, breathe, and watch the show.

***Again, this is all IMO. I've learned to only rely on NOW, and I imagine there are SLIM potentials it WOULDN'T happen "soon" if there was a HUGE, unanticipated shift in trajectory***

The fireworks have been going off for a WHILE now people, at this point we are getting ready for the FINALE!!!!

Salamon:  I love your synopsis except for one thing......
Could this happen tomorrow you say " Probably not... "NO NO NO NO
Could this happen tomorrow --- YES !!!     We just don't know.   We are at the precipice now.   It could happen before you take your next breath or I finish typing.
We are on STANDBY where this could happen at ANY TIME

 
DELTA:  THIS WAS FROM 04/24/17........BUT VERY INTERESTING ....
Picture
ChrisC:  .  Can you please explain this so we can understand what we are looking at? 

DELTA:  IT'S THE BUY & SELL OF DINARS IN IRAQI MARKET.
3 OF THEM HAD THE BUY AND SELL BEWTEEN 29-40 DINAR PER $.
Hazen:  So, Delta, what does this mean for us??

DELTA:     MORE DEMAND ON DINARS.

ChrisC:  I am up for some schooling if you can explain that.  Delta said they were between 29-40 dinar PER dollar as the lower part of that chart shows.  Also shows a ridiculous profit margin which I can't understand.  I am open for some help.  It looks like there is a buy sell at a rate for some reason much different in the lower half of the chart than the upper part. 

DELTA:  THIS IS IRAQ OVER ALL NO LOGIC SOMETIMES ....SOME MARKET IN IRAQ KNEW SOMETHING  THAT THE AVERAGE IRAQ DIDN'T...BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT IS THE CBI.....IT'S COMING MY BROTHER THEY HAVE NO OPTION......
.                       
Don961:  brother ... could this be one of many trials and tests needed to check the reaction of the market for a brief time ... so that when the dinar does RI, there is some semblance of what to expect ... like WS's firms book testing of different rates last year ... every nuance and aspect of the RI needing testing .. so as to eliminate or at least diminish as many potential issues as possible ... imo
DELTA:  YES.... MY POINT FROM POSTING IT..(thumbs up)
          
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DELTA: Foreign Currency Selling Window for 6/5/2018 that performed on 3/5/2018
                            
Announcement No.(3691)
                          Sale Date - 6/5/2018 that performed on 3/5/2018
Details
  Amount

Total sale for the purpose of strengthen outside assets (Transfers and credits)
135,931,200

Total sale cash
36,310,000

Total sale  amount
172,241,200

Note: Selling price of remittance money to bank accounts outside is (1190) ID for ech Dolla.

Cash selling price is (1190) ID for each Dollar.

MilitiaMan:  Parity.. I hope that above is a fact and it means the buy and sell are on par now.. Kaboom if it is.. Banks are closed.. Wow! Maybe your view on the terminology could verify my suspicions?  imo ~ MM

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