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Sunday, April 8, 2018

KTFA UPDATED, 8 APRIL

KTFA:

Walpop:  Article:  “Council of Baghdad : allocations of the capital of the budget
of 2018 amounted to 85 billion dinars”
   LINK

Samson,  wow what a great find,  thanks for all your hard work.  Frank it sounds like things are heating up. 

Frank26:   ......................................... YUUUUUUUUUP

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Walkingstick:  Urgent policy .. White House: Trump is talking by telephone with Abadi, the situation of Syria

S President Donald Trump has spoken with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi about the situation in Syria, the White House said Sunday evening.

He added that Trump and Abadi also discussed accelerating the campaign to defeat the remnants of the Islamic State Organization (Da'ash).

A statement by the Ebadi office said that the latter held a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump on Sunday afternoon, praising a defeat by Iraqi forces and the support and assistance of the US-led coalition forces.

The two presidents also discussed the situation in the region and the developments in the situation in Syria and stressed the importance of ending the remnants of the gangs, urging the terrorists to prevent their spread again. 

Abadi noted Iraq's vision for regional cooperation and coordination and its desire for balanced relations with all its neighbors, which will enhance security and stability for the region and the world.
 
The two presidents also stressed the importance of the success of the upcoming elections to complete the stage of construction and reconstruction.

http://www.shafaaq.com/ar/Ar_NewsReader/e939230f-a1fc-4e28-a6f1-947f7d138816

URGENT Abadi and Trump discuss Syria's developments and Iraqi elections
http://alforatnews.com/modules.....yid=162783

URGENT Abadi and Trump emphasize importance of success of upcoming elections
http://www.alliraqnews.com/mod.....ryid=72508

Abadi calls Trump and agree on the need for the success of the upcoming elections to complete the stage of construction and reconstruction 
http://baghdadtoday.news/ar/ne.....%A7%D9%86-

MilitiaMan:  Lets look at this also. Abadi heads a meeting today to secure the Borders. That in part would have implications to currency flows in and out of country. There could be plenty of gang members looking to make some serious coin if at all possible by exploiting a weak border when the adjustment comes into full force. We now hear that the directive is for future re construction to begin in earnest.

That in one part of the Country, of there 2018 Budget there is an allocation of 15% of 85 Billion Dinars.  That was the shot the borders heard in that meeting, imo. The Zeros are lifted. They are talking billions of Dinars not Trillions. Thus, being 1:1 from the looks of it in print. Keep in mind that armament deals are not cheap.. ~ MM

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Samson:  The underlying reasons for the rise in the exchange rate
of the Iraqi dinar in the parallel market


 8th April, 2018

The monetary policy of the Central Bank of Iraq aims to find a monetary framework near the exchange rate of the dinar in the parallel market in a manner not far from the exchange rate of the official monetary policy and the difference is the natural difference of the homogenization of the money market and balance at a real rate of 2% approved globally not to spend in the long period.The objective at the same time balance the exchange market in the inflection, which is sought by the monetary authority through the procedures and processes of monetary policy continued short-term. Factors and reasons that indicate today the rise of the dinar against the dollar (as sometimes called, lar in the Iraqi parallel market In the decentralized market or the decline of Aldo convergence rate of the dollar exchange rate parallel dinar with its price of the official window of the Central Bank of the majority) is mostly due to three main factors:

First, the ability of the central bank to meet the demand for foreign currency by Mazid or the window of the bank as a monetary policy and comfortably and disciplined, especially in the flexible application of the standards of banking compliance and the second, are speculative speculators optimistic value of the dinar, which is indicated by increasing the value of proceeds of oil sales in foreign currency and rising and achieving The current account surplus of 25 percent was accompanied by the suspension of the government's borrowing from the central bank in the dinar, which increased its balance due to the intensification of the financial crisis. 

(Ie, stop betting on the policy of 2014 trillion dinars since the year to monetize the debt or finance the budget deficit in the issuance of cash), which was adopted during the years of the financial crisis to finance the deficit in public budgets because of shrinking cash flows of the budget. The dinar remained on the tools of monetary policy on demand for the foreign currency represented

The surplus, at the time, is pushing much of the ongoing demand for foreign currency reserves. Although the central bank used the policy of sterilization of the dinar and control of domestic liquidity levels through the dollar window, the bank was forced to exercise tight scrutiny and its relative reserves of dollar sales decreased from the central window of the foreign currency, which led to the monetary authority facing a phenomenon of multiple exchange rates . Ie face the phenomenon of two different rates of exchange because of addressing the suspicions of money laundering and cut any financial extension to finance terrorism after the occupation of some provinces by terrorism Da'ashi. 

It has led to two exchange rates, one of which is fixed and the other is counter-cyclical, that would push the latter towards the dollar's appreciation for several months during the financial crisis. The third factor, which is the most important in the cash market, which has influenced but is different and superior this time, the stability of the exchange market in its impact completely comes from the impact of the function of monetary demand on the dinar or change the structure of the behavior of thousands in demand for cash in dinars. 

The rise in the monetary demand from the effect of the rational expectations factor in the dinar holders raises the real interest rate signal in which the nominal interest rate surpassed the inflation rates (ie, the rise in nominal nominal interest to be higher than the annual inflation over the past three years).

 The real interest and expectations for the transfer of the monetary demand function were structural and increased from the behavior of the monetary demand on the dinar.  It should be noted that the annual inflation in the range did not increase by 1%, for nominal interest on savings deposits in banks in the organized market, The interest rate of monetary policy, which has also touched 6 percent annually, is more than one percent per year, while nominal interest in the informal money market has exceeded unprecedented levels of one percent (in the wave of so-called 180-currency traders to touch an annualized rate of money).
All these factors, including the increase in the demand for the dinar in the Kurdistan region and the liberated governorates, have contributed to the high exchange rate of the dinar in the market. The dollar has come close to the official central price in a price homogeneity that has not been seen in the country for many months.

The Central Bank of Iraq to defend the stability of the exchange rate and stay constant in the continuation of the monetary behavior of individuals and their positive expectations on the strength of the Iraqi dinar, the stability of Saaralpr (reflected by the similarity between exchange rates in the two markets mentioned) may continue indefinitely. 

In conclusion, in a society of monetary aggregation, there is a high rate of economic stagnation, which is politicized. Liquidity The rate of growth in monetary demand continues to outperform the real money supply growth, which can be called "liquidity trap". The impact of higher interest rates has opened up. The liquidity trap coincides with the stagnation of demand in real commodity markets represented by rising stocks satisfying a three-year real-time demand for durable goods. 

It is worth mentioning that all these factors have been reflected and overlapped (including the rational application of banking compliance in the legitimacy of the demand for foreign currency conversion by the monetary authority on its customers) leading to a decline in the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market to close to the official central rate of disbursement in The time of the increase of the foreign reserve of the Central Bank, which 51 exceeded the needs of the country for more than one billion and currently covers the months of Esteradip 9 billion Duo Esteradip in the expression of the accumulation of  reserves 3 exceeds the standard standard of monetary policy in maintaining stability and maintaining power No matter what form of success, foreign cash income.    LINK

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Don961:  Thank you sam .... same article in pdf form appears on the economists network site here : link 

Some additional highlights/comments  ... imo 

"The surplus, at the time, is pushing much of the ongoing demand for foreign currency reserves. Although the central bank used the policy of sterilization of the dinar and control of domestic liquidity levels through the dollar window, the bank was forced to exercise tight scrutiny and its relative reserves of dollar sales decreased from the central window of the foreign currency, which led to the monetary authority facing a phenomenon of multiple exchange rates . Ie face the phenomenon of two different rates of exchange because of addressing the suspicions of money laundering "

"It has led to two exchange rates, one of which is fixed and the other is counter-cyclical, that would push the latter towards the dollar's appreciation for several months during the financial crisis."

All these factors, including the increase in the demand for the dinar in the Kurdistan region and the liberated governorates, have contributed to the high exchange rate of the dinar in the market. The dollar has come close to the official central price in a price homogeneity that has not been seen in the country for many months. The Central Bank of Iraq to defend the stability of the exchange rate and stay constant in the continuation of the monetary behavior of individuals and their positive expectations on the strength of the Iraqi dinar, the stability of Saaralpr (reflected by the similarity between exchange rates in the two markets mentioned ) may continue indefinitely "....

( dollar price homogenous with dinar price in the parallel market .... may continue indefinitely ,,, as in 2% compliance ... nice)

and the final paragraph :

"It is worth mentioning that all these factors have been reflected and overlapped (including the rational application of banking compliance in the legitimacy of the demand for foreign currency conversion by the monetary authority on its customers) leading to a decline in the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market to close to the official central rate of disbursement in The time of the increase of the foreign reserve of the Central Bank, which 51 exceeded the needs of the country for more than one billion and currently covers the months of Esteradip 9 billion Duo Esteradip in the expression of the accumulation of reserves 3 exceeds the standard standard of monetary policy in maintaining stability and maintaining power No matter what form of success, foreign cash income

( reiterating ,,, the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market is close and closing in on the official CBI rate ... = 2% compliance .... reduced mcp ... imo )  

Frank26:  SMILE................... WALKINGSTICK

Walkingstick:  Yep .... how ya like me now?

MilitiaMan: I would say I am liking a lot!! This all fits with the articles of recent.. imo ~ MM

"Then he said they have closed the Gap Between the Official rate and the Market rate. This means they are 2% compliant. They used a tool Called Article 8! The only way they could do that was with Article 8! Abadi promised he would lift the restrictions on the exchange rate. The evidence is there... It is in the articles." ~ iho ~ Frank26

 

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