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Wednesday, August 9, 2017

IQD CHAT, 9 AUGUST

Chat Room News Excerpts & Highlights Late Tuesday 
chattels: @Spectra There is always a date in the future for Iraq to do something that needed to be done yesterday.

Sparky: @Spectra what date?
Spectra: @chattels i know but its the chaper 7 ! i like!
Sparky: @Spectra only the beginning
Spectra: @Sparky it may be the beginning but everything has a END!

txbrand: Frank26: WOW !!! ...... TY DELTA !!! ************* DELTA: لاسيما بعد النجاح الاقتصادي الكبير الذي تحقق في الثاني من شهر آب الحالي والمتمثل بدخول العراق إلى اسواق المال العالمية BINGO!!!! (wink) Blinkster: (Translation): "Especially after the Major economic success achieved on the second August month of Iraq's entry into the global financial markets."
​chattels: @Spectra Iraq is in a perpetual state of " fixin' to get ready " to do this or that as we like to say in the South :)

Spectra: @chattels I KNOW! -LOL

Spectra: @chattels but i am still being my self , and im always optomistic!

Sparky: @Spectra I'm optimistic, or we wouldn't be here

Spectra: @txbrand i seen that this morning too but didnt want to take it -lol

chattels: @Spectra I prefer the company and fellowship of optimists, I am jaded and skeptical enough for all of us :)

Spectra: @chattels if everyone was a optomist it would be like EVERY OTHER PLACE!
chattels: @Spectra I am and remain " hopeful ".

chattels: @Spectra " Hope is definitely not the same thing as optimism. It is not the conviction that something will turn out well, but the certainty that something makes sense, regardless of how it turns out." - Vaclav Havel

txbrand: hummmmm why would they say this is it wasnt changed ------------> Samson: Rafidain determines the sale of dollars to pilgrims at the official price 8th August, 2017 Rafidain Bank announced the sale of the dollar to the pilgrims at the official price and through its branches specified in Baghdad and the provinces.

chattels: @Spectra This dinar thing makes some sense, but how it will end I do not know.
Sparky: Patience

txbrand: guess not --- He pointed out that "the bank set the official price is 1200 and three thousand dollars" for each pilgrim.

chattels: @txbrand Sorry, not following you. Say more please.

Sparky: @chattels easier to say than do
chattels: @Sparky Indeed. Few can or will.
Sparky: @chattels agree
Sparky: @chattels like fear and greed
Sparky: @chattels illusion

chattels: “THESE are the times that try men's souls. ................ ; yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value." - Thomas Payne

BlackGold: <---- just wondering how Iraq sold bonds internationally in 2006 if they aren't international. boy, their are alot of lairs and thieves around

SayMyName: @BlackGold There sure are BlackGold
SayMyName: @BlackGold It's unfortunate, but that's life right? Not all people are bad, just a lot.

chattels: Iraq's currency and bonds are " international ", they just aren't worth what we are waiting for it to be, eh ?

SayMyName: @chattels Exactly

BlackGold: not in 2006
SayMyName: @chattels I guess to some degree they're "international." I guess that has layers to it.
SayMyName: @chattels I'm not an expert in these matters. Just a joker, smoker, and a midnight toker lol
BlackGold: lol

chattels: Some banks sold the IQD at one time I am told before I invested.
chattels: @SayMyName I am a confessed macroeconomic moron.

Sparky: @chattels my bank just started

Spectra: here is a big one for you all!

Spectra: Abadi 8-8 -2017 .............................................. There is a clear success and development in the economic situation of Iraq. Our strategy is to diversify the economy and encourage investment. There is a bottleneck in some joints of the economy because of routine.

The world is interested in Iraq and looks forward to investing in it. There is high international confidence in our economy that we seek to strengthen. The status of Iraq is being strengthened day by day among countries. The world experience of Iraq is a pioneering experience.

The world is surprised that Iraq has emerged stronger than before. The system of linking Iraq with restrictions we are working to free them. We want to complete Chapter 7 file completely. Our forces prepare for the operations of Tal Afar, western Kirkuk and western Anbar.

We agreed to the timing of battles to free the remaining from the ground. Life returned to Nineveh province clearly.  We are working to restore life to all our liberated cities. We captured organized crime gangs and hijacked very quickly. We assure all citizens that we are pursuing criminals as soon as the crime occurs. Invite citizens to report crimes and criminals and cooperate with the security services.

We want to reach a safe stage for criminals and terrorists. We are trying to restore Iraqi industry and restore Iraq's health in all fields.  We want a sound relationship between the executive branch and the legislature. There is no foreign forces fighting in Iraq. We do not have a rally outside of Iraq.

The popular crowd is an official body operating within Iraq. The crowd is an Iraqi body funded by the Iraqi budget and operating under the authority of the State.  Incident bombing of the crowd by the coalition is incorrect. Do not interfere with the Syrian file.  We ask all parties not to intercept Iraq outside its territory. I invite to n

Spectra: https://www.facebook.com/IraqPMMediaOffice/photos/pcb.732691736915524/732691456915552/?type=3&theater

chattels: I probably ruined the good prospects of the IQD. Usually what I invest in goes south in value. :)

Sparky: @chattels Rockland Trust, New England

SayMyName: @chattels So this is YOUR fault lol

Spectra: @chattels no no no now!
chattels: @SayMyName LOL
Sparky: @chattels lol
​SayMyName: @chattels When this finally goes down... it sounds like you're in the same school as me.. in that this will be the greatest cosmic "I told you so" of my entire life

Sparky: @chattels times change

chattels: @SayMyName If so, and I choose to communicate with all who have and are laughing at me, it will be a long distance communication :)

Sparky: @chattels it's the only given
SayMyName: @chattels Right. "I told you so. I'm also in a random South American country."

Spectra: @SayMyName random????
chattels: @SayMyName No return call number :)
Spectra: @SayMyName lol strange!

BlackGold: routine = stealing--lol

Spectra: @BlackGold Random brings questions to my mind!-lol
SayMyName: @Spectra I just mean that I'll be far far away, once this pops
Spectra: @BlackGold but i question everything
Spectra: @SayMyName ok isee!- i thought you said you were in a random place now!

chattels: Iraq gets vote of confidence from IMF, bond markets After ratifying an amended 2017 budget, Iraq passed a crucial IMF review and raised $1 billion in its first unsecured bond offering since 2006.

chattels: By BEN VAN HEUVELEN AND BEN LANDO of Iraq Oil Report Published Monday, August 7th, 2017

chattels: The Iraqi government has cleared two significant hurdles in its urgent quest to attract investment capital, on the heels of Parliament's recent passage of an amended 2017 budget law.

 Iraq has successfully marketed a $1 billion unsecured bond, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that it approved Iraq to receive an $825 million loan disbursement as part of a three-year program – flows of financing that could help establish an encouraging precedent for international investors.

SayMyName: @chattels Two out of how many? lol
Spectra: @chattels nice

chattels: I would like to have the rest of the article but a subscription to Iraqi Oil report is thousands of dollars per year. http://www.iraqoilreport.com/news/iraq-gets-vote-confidence-imf-bond-markets-24590/

Sparky: @chattels progress
Spectra: @chattels ickes!
Sparky: @chattels not surprised

chattels: @SayMyName Very true, and the amount of money is rather insignificant in the greater scheme of things.

BlackGold: <-- wondering where the 85 billion is that belongs to Iraq that we so nicely were holding for them, not to mention all the othrs funds we secured from other Central banks. an untold amount

SayMyName: @chattels It's all progress, don't get me wrong. But it's not the finale.

Sparky: @BlackGold where do you think?

Spectra: @SayMyName what exsperience do you bring to make or back up your statement if you don't mind me asking?

chattels: @SayMyName There is much that we do not know. In the famous words of Donald Rumsfeld, " as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know.

But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones."

Spectra: @SayMyName in other words why should i believe you?
Spectra: @SayMyName is it based on your profession ?
Spectra: @SayMyName or some related field to economics or maybe something else?

BlackGold: @Sparky lol
Sparky: @chattels rumsfeld, Cheney
BlackGold: Oct 26, 2011 - US troops get ready to unload cash transported inside Iraq by helicopter. ... the New York Federal Reserve shipped billions of dollars in physical cash to ... The money came from an account held at the New York Fed called the ...

Sparky: @chattels Halaburton

BlackGold: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2011/10/26/ny-feds-40-billion-iraqi-money-trail
Spectra: @SayMyName I am sorry to put you under pressure sir or mam but? When making statements one should use a proper vetting !

Spectra: @SayMyName lol
Spectra: @SayMyName so now you say this is not the finale! please exsplain ! why you believe this way?

BlackGold: Oct 31, 2016 - Iraq is demanding the return of $40billion gold money it says was stolen by U.S. institutions in the wake of the 2003 invasion. In a letter to sent the UN sent last month the Iraqi parliament asked for help finding and recovering the money, which disappeared from the Development

BlackGold: http://www.awdnews.com/top-news/where-s-our-missing-$40bn-gold-iraq-demands-return-of-oil-money-stolen-by-u-s-institutions

Spectra: @BlackGold wow! this is a big one!
BlackGold: that is just what was reported

Sparky: @chattels 1 Bobby is on point

Spectra: @BlackGold GOOD LUCK WITH THAT IRAQ!
BlackGold: yea i know
Sparky: @chattels so is Pat

chattels: Kurdish Diaspora to Vote Electronically in Independence Referendum http://www.basnews.com/index.php/en/news/kurdistan/369247

Hornat: @BlackGold https://youtu.be/-iDrc-JrV8A

Spectra: @chattels Diaspora what does that mean disposition?

chattels: @Spectra Kurds living outside of Kurdistan.
Hornat: @BlackGold thanks for the link
Spectra: @chattels ok ty

MichelleL: stood for the dispersion of jews outside of Israel back in the day, glad to see its being ethnically recycled Spectra ;) Hello again friends

chattels: @Spectra " The Kurds living abroad will be allowed to vote in the September independence referendum of Kurdistan through an electronic poll set by the Kurdistan Independent High Electoral Commission (KIHEC)."

MichelleL: we weave in and out of all sorts of places in this dinar community, Spectra - normally once I weave out, I never weave back in though

chattels: @MichelleL Probably, but not sure. It got to be a contentious place for me to post due to one person who kept sabotaging the chat room.

chattels: We are all in this together. We all " win " or " lose " together I think.

MichelleL: as far as I am concerned, we're all just watching and waiting, hate seeing the infighting
chattels: @MichelleL Maybe, we shall see, eh ? But I hope and pray for each of us.
MichelleL: @chattels :Tup

Spectra: people in iraq lets not forget them!
Spectra: after all is this not the country we invested in and its people are its country!

Sparky: @chattels you bring reality, to the chaos and confusion

chattels: None of us are so very good. He who believes that they are without error deceives him/her self and the truth is not in them.

Spectra: @MichelleL :yes:

ElmerFudd: @Spectra It doesn't give many details, but it does mention that they are getting this resolved.

Spectra: @ElmerFudd yes !
Spectra: @ElmerFudd and chapter 7 !
Spectra: @ElmerFudd correct!

Cree: OK so I left you all alone for the afternoon so I am sure you solved the problems of the world. So where and when for the RV?
Sparky: @Cree Iraq will be dominant in the ME

Cree: @Sparky so.......tell please
Cree: @Sparky and and and

Cree: @Sparky in oil or with a tomato saurce?
Sparky: @Cree. Port of Fame will play
Cree: @Sparky if thats all he said well.....
Cree: @Sparky hey be nice to Tman you gave me the ciff notes

Sparky: @Cree best advice, don't count on Tman
Spectra: But what is it wrong to acknowledge the truth now?
Spectra: I'm sorry I don't get that?

tman23: @Sparky ..... LOL !! 
​Spectra: @Sparky yes he been around a long time too as long as I've been watching at least 4 years
Sparky: @Spectra can't see his perspective

Spectra: @Sparky it's between the two of you but I can Remeber him calling it !

Sparky: @Spectra not even a pumper

Spectra: @Sparky No one is perfect here we make bad calls ?
Spectra: @Sparky but Rcookie was a good guy at least I enjoyed his perspective I agree!
Sparky: @Spectra ok. Agreed. Just don't like him

Spectra: @Sparky he seemed pretty intelligent too!

Romello: I remember tman23 calling it but I also remember Tman23 having justifiable proof based upon the articles That we all were reading.

 Spectra: @Sparky there's always going to be someone we just don't mesh with! They say !

Sparky: @Romello articles? When?

Romello: It wasn't like tman was slapping everything against the wall to see what stuck like the rest of them were.

Romello: @Sparky Long ago for me

Romello: Tman23 had brought many articles in about 2 weeks ago the show why he had called it.  : I remember cause I was in here and read them as well
chattels: Enorrste Article: "Keywords confirms the existence of a large and promising role for the private sector in the next phase" Quote: "Secretary General of the Council of Ministers d. Mahdi Keywords presence of government plans to give a major role and promising the private sector in Iraq by activating the investment side in the next stage within the sectors of the economy and reconstruction."

I'm with KAP [Guru Kaperoni] on this one. This sort of language doesn't leave much wiggle room. It seems to me that forces are in play to open the currency to the world before the end of the year. [reference Guru Kaperoni post 7-7-2017]

Sparky: @chattels float?
​chattels: Unfortunately I do not foresee much reconstruction / reconciliation until 2018. I very much hope that I am wrong. C'mon Iraq !

Sparky: @chattels 2018 sounds good

chattels: @Sparky A float beyond an initial value I think makes sense. What will the threshold value be ?

Sparky: @chattels at the current rate
Sparky: @chattels just start

chattels: @Sparky I expect that many people will exchange as soon as there is any real value. It will be difficult not to do so.

Sparky: @chattels turn the key
Sparky: @chattels I'm holding

chattels: @Sparky I am hoping that I am holding enough to cash some and hold some.

Sparky: @chattels potential is phenomenal

chattels: @Sparky Boom or bust :)
Sparky: @chattels you have plenty

RickeyT: @chattels www.gofundme.com/RickeyTolliver , I am one that will cash out asap

Sparky: @chattels Boom
Sparky: @chattels isx

chattels: @RickeyT Each of us has our own considerations, eh ?
RickeyT: @chattels yep
chattels: @RickeyT The " luxury " of a choice is all that one can ask or expect out of anything in life.
RickeyT: @chattels I have never had to ask for help in my life.....I always made 80k+, cancer has taken it all

Sparky: @chattels Basra 500
Sparky: @chattels index
Sparky: @chattels I'm already there

chattels: @Sparky Not following you. Say more please.

Sparky: @chattels Basra is intended to be the next financial capital
Sparky: @chattels near Port of Fame, need parity
Sparky: @chattels Faw
Sparky: @chattels everything cones in through there
Sparky: @chattels imho
Sparky: @chattels with Kuwait

Sparky: @chattels wow, lot of info

chattels: @Sparky How so ?

Sparky: @chattels just sounds vulnerable
Sparky: @chattels too much info for open chat room
Sparky: @chattels must be me
Sparky: @chattels I trust no one

chattels: @Sparky We are all vulnerable. By the grace of God go we all. I have always been transparent. Anonymity is cowardice to me.

Sparky: @chattels no one here
Sparky: @chattels I disagree

RickeyT: @Sparky read my story on the go fund me page, I was bulletproof at one time, when you get smacked as hard as I have been, you wise up quickly

Sparky: @chattels smart
Sparky: @RickeyT I like my life, and my privacy

chattels: Central reveals takeover Daesh 856 billion dinars and 101 million dollars LINK

chattels: Courtesy of DinarAlert

Acerginnala: Does anyone know about this $6 trillion that Iraq supposedly received?

chattels: Saleh: the loss of Iraq during the occupation of the grain Daesh period of more than three million tonnes  LINK

chattels: Courtesy of DinarAlert
​chattels: @Acerginnala I have not heard such.
chattels: @Acerginnala You have a link ?

Acerginnala: I will get it @Chattels

Acerginnala: Dr> Clark probably copied it from Frank but here is the first link to Dr Clark:

http://www.dinarrecaps.com/our-blog/-dr-clarke-update-post-for-august-8th

chattels: Beware of corrupt calls to float the price of the dinar  LINK

chattels: Courtesy of DinarAlert

Sparky: @chattels looks like lots of code

chattels: @Acerginnala I do not read any mention of 6 trillion dinar ?

chattels: " It is the political and security reasons that are calling not to float the dinar at the moment (at least) is the fear of mixing the next political capital from abroad to carry out political and security agendas is illegal with the money that comes out through official channels that are subject to transparency, and that there is coordination and cooperation between the government and the central bank (as an independent authority for the government) in the area of recovery of funds borrowed and re - reserve to figures normal, ............"

Acerginnala: and represent these companies collectively financially set the world up to 12 Trilion dollars, while the volume of purchase orders reached about 6 trillion dollars to support (Euphrates) Iraq secured by the Iraqi government and not by any other international body as the first in Sindh (Tigris) , which safeguarded the United States government. http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=142165

chattels: " ............., so it is necessary not to be dragged behind the rhetoric and the launch of rosy promises about the benefits of the float of the dinar is not in the current government (reluctance to float now) nor in the short term only after economic vision is completed for the country and elucidated exceptions available the appropriate requirements for this transition, ..........."

Acerginnala: @Chattels, here is what Dr Clark Said: Iraq sells Bonds directly, without US backing, to tune of over 6 TRILLION Dollars! (Remember our MASSIVE AMOUNT OF MONEY, WE’VE BEEN PREACHING OVER THE PAST MONTH. (This Qualifies) . I would think he got it from the article posted by Frank.

chattels: @Acerginnala " ........... the great economic success achieved on the second of this month, which is the entry of Iraq to the financial markets After the issuance of the second international sovereign bond in the name of (Euphrates) and its duration of more than five years, and surprising that more than 350 companies from the international investment companies competed among themselves to buy the Iraqi bond, representing a total of a global financial number up to 12 Tre Lyon dollars, ..........."


Sparky: @chattels get ready, that sounds close
chattels: @Acerginnala We shall see.
chattels: @Acerginnala Thanks for posting.

Acerginnala: So the companies represent some 12 trillion dollars, Iraq did not sell 6 trillion in bonds? I hate to call something BS but this stinks to high heaven.

chattels: @Acerginnala My recollection of the bond sale was an amount very much smaller that the sum stated in the article.

Sparky: @Acerginnala at least their own bonds

Sparky: @Acerginnala first time in 10 years
Sparky: @Acerginnala I think

chattels: Iraq tried to sell bonds two years ago with no takers as I recall.
Sparky: @chattels oversold this time around
Sparky: @chattels 6.75

tman23: Iraqi representatives met with Lord Mayor at the mansion house in England promoting the latest bond and seeking international investment along with bringing up old ideas like trade centers to for UK commodities etc etc........ The hesitation is mostly concerns on political stability.....

Sparky: @tman23 SOL,?
Sparky: @tman23 Maliki, Iranian influence

chattels: @tman23 " It is the political and security reasons that are calling not to float the dinar at the moment (at least) is the fear of mixing the next political capital from abroad to carry out political and security agendas is illegal with the money that comes out through official channels that are subject to transparency, ........."

LINK

Sparky: @chattels funneling $ to terrorist
Sparky: @chattels Maliki machine

Acerginnala: I first read the bond was 1 billion dollars, now 6 trillion? That, is a LOT of cabbage! ;$$
Sparky: @Acerginnala 6 bil
Sparky: @Acerginnala USD

chattels: Tuesday, August 8, 2017 Post Mosul Liberation Day 28 Aug 7 2017

http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2017/08/post-mosul-liberation-day-28-aug-7-2017.html

chattels: August 6 was one of the most violent days in the city for quite some time. It was another reminder that not only are IS elements still hiding out in the tunnels of the Old City, but has cells roaming the rest of Mosul as well.

chattels: Control of Mosul remains in transition. The spokesman for the Joint Operations Command General Yahya Rasool said that the army would remain in the city until the local police were built back up. That came after units from the 9th and 16th Division were pulled out to be used in the Tal Afar operation.

The Federal Police is taking over many of those areas. The Ninewa Council has been asking Baghdad for months to re-instate the former police, but it appears that the central government would rather create a brand new force. That could take months to years, and there appeared to be no pre-planning for it either

chattels: Again, Baghdad did not prepare for this contingency leading to this ad hoc situation. Luckily, the Islamic State is on the run, but once it regroups this hodgepodge situation could easily be exploited by the militants.

 chattels: For over two weeks now the Iraqi forces (ISF) have said the Tal Afar operation is right around the corner. The Defense Ministry was the latest to announce that the battle plan was completed and that a starting date has been set. Air strikes have been going on for days and knocked out several bridges in the district to limit the insurgents freedom of movement.

A MiG flying reconnaissance was hit over the town by IS fire, wounding the two crew members. The Federal Police started reconnaissance missions and setting up logistics for the campaign. A member of the Ninewa council claimed all the civilians had fled Tal Afar only leaving IS families.

Finally, Al Mada had a good piece on the challenges in the upcoming fight. Some parts of Tal Afar are as densely laid out as Mosul. There are also many orchards in the south. Those two areas could be difficult zones to maneuver through for the ISF.

chattels: Finally, there are not many fighters left. The campaign was originally supposed to start at the end of July, but the Hashd had to move back from the Syrian border, which caused a delay. That should end very soon.

chattels: The number of displaced (IDPs) in Ninewa has recently plateaued. On July 30, there were 837,450 IDPs. A week later on July 6 there were 838,950. Many of the people entering camps are going through their second or third displacement.

chattels: The main reasons why people want out is that there are no jobs, and there is no air conditioning during the sweltering summer heat. Since the start of the Mosul campaign there has been a constant movement of people in and out of the camps. That trend continues even after the city has been freed. Until there is a decided change in the overall situation, this will go on.

chattels: Iraqi Federal Supreme Court and adherence to the rules of legal interpretation (the decision of constitutional amendments model )  LINK


chattels: The Iraqi Constitution in the Federal Supreme Court has jurisdiction to interpret the provisions of the Constitution in the second item of Article 93 thereof. On the basis of the above-mentioned constitutional text, the Iraqi Council of Representatives has asked the Court to present to the Presidency of the Council proposals submitted by (1/5) of the members of the House of Representatives to amend one or two Articles of the Constitution and whether it should be dealt with in accordance with the mechanisms set forth in Article 126) of the Constitution or according to the mechanisms prescribed in Article (142) thereof.

chattels: Iraqi Kurds’ Referendum for Political Relevance

http://carnegieendowment.org/sada/72740

chattels: DENISE NATALI : The independence referendum for the Kurdistan Region reflects not just struggles with Baghdad but intra-Kurdish political rivalries that could encourage further conflict.

chattels: The Iraqi Kurds’ independence referendum, planned for September 25, reflects unresolved disputes over political authority between Baghdad and Erbil. It is embedded in the “right to self-determination” and a salient sense of Kurdish nationalism that has deepened since the campaign against the Islamic State (IS).

Even if the referendum is non-binding, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) will attempt to use the results to leverage the Iraqi government. One priority is to capitalize on Kurdish territorial gains and enhance KRG influence in the disputed territories, particularly Kirkuk and the Nineveh Plains. This effort requires convincing local communities—Kurds and non-Kurds—that their future will be more promising under the KRG and not Baghdad.


chattels: The first dynamic involves what the Kurds can gain from the Iraqi state. The second is about Kurdish factions’ competition for power, revenue, and resources.

chattels: The key post-referendum issue is not whether a “yes” vote will alter official Iraqi borders or the status quo, but rather how Kurdish parties’ competition for political relevance can incite conflict among Kurds or other sub-state groups.

chattels: Most astute observers, as well as Kurdish officials, know that the referendum will not lead to independence.

chattels: A unilateral referendum lacking Iraqi and international support is unlikely to alter the status quo in Iraq.

chattels: The absence of a negotiated settlement between the KRG and Baghdad approved by the Iraqi parliament, will also leave KRG claims to oil exports and revenues subject to the same legal and political constraints as they are today. Nor will the referendum change political geography. The Kurdistan Region will remain landlocked and dependent on Turkey’s goodwill for most of its oil exports.

chattels: According to Iraqi officials, at least half of the nearly 600,000 barrels of oil per day exported by the KRG to Turkey are from Kirkuk and not the Kurdistan Region proper. Kirkuk revenues have temporarily replaced the KRG’s portion of the Iraqi budget that was cut off by Baghdad in 2014, an agreement that will likely be revisited in the months ahead.

chattels: KRG overreach in the disputed territories could undermine its autonomy and ability to leverage Baghdad. At minimum, a “yes” vote will increase the KRG’s operating costs and financial pressures.

chattels: Those in the No to the Referendum movement, initiated by independent activists in Sulaimaniya, argue that the referendum is really about extending Barzani’s power and not Kurdish independence.

chattels: Kurdish opposition voices are unlikely to stifle the referendum or prevent a majority “yes” vote.  
​chattels: Internal Kurdish dynamics have implications for the referendum and its outcomes. They show that the competition among Kurds can have as much, if not greater influence on self-determination then tensions between the KRG and the Iraqi government.

chattels: The Kurds’ ability to influence Baghdad is further challenged by an enhanced sense of Iraqi nationalism, Baghdad’s gradual rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the KRG’s lack of an independent revenue source.

chattels: Given these realities, the efforts of the United States and international community can fuel or mitigate power struggles and conflict between Baghdad and Erbil, as well as within the Kurdistan Region.

Avoiding such turmoil would not mean backing a Kurdish referendum at this time, but rather, enhancing institutions of the Iraqi state, supporting Iraqi nationalist narratives that are less ethno-sectarian, and helping decentralize power in Iraq, to include the Kurdistan Region.

Support to the KRG should continue to be conditioned on its status as an integral part of the Iraqi state—and channeling this support through Baghdad. Neutral third party actors could be effective in mediating power, resource, and revenue sharing between Baghdad and Erbil, as well as at provincial levels and in disputed areas.

chattels: Denise Natali is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at National Defense University. The views expressed are her own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. Follow her on Twitter at @DnataliDC.

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