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Tuesday, July 25, 2017

MNT GOAT UPDATE, 25 JULY

July 25, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief

Hi Everyone,

I bring you much news today.  

July 22,2017, Source: Radio Sawa, Major General Maan al-Saadi, commander of the second elite forces in the anti-terrorism apparatus in Iraq, described the security situation in Mosul as now completely stable. (Their words not mine!)

He said in an interview with "Radio Sawa" to the continued population of Mosul to return to their homes, which were displaced during the military operations.

He explained that the sectors are conducting security inspections of the neighborhoods that have been liberated, including the Old City.

Major General Saadi played down the importance of the attacks launched by a preacher near Tal Afar and Hawija. He considered the attacks "a natural issue because the enemy is fighting a guerrilla war"
​He pointed to the readiness for the restoration of Hawijah and Tal Afar from the grip of a supporter, and denied any delay in these operations:

Oh -but wait a second! Didn’t Abadi already make his infamous needed speech in the past weeks already and tell us Mosul was “fully” liberated? Yes – he did but we also know that pockets of sleeper cells and small bands of snipers and militia existed. So now they are telling us these too have been cleaned out.

More news….

So as Iraq now moves on to the next phase in its history, once again, as in my last two newsletters, its now all about the economy.  The CBI is not holding back on making the needed changes and adjustments. It is simply amazing how much information the CBI is now publishing and informing the public. It is all very optimistic for us.

But when will they tell the citizens they are going to move to the next phase of the “project to delete the zeros”.  Let’s now lose sight of this in the midst of all this other amazing news. It has been over a year and a half already since they last educated them on the process. Remember in the fall of 2015? Remember all the news about this project. This is what we can expect to happen again. So when will they do this?

They will do this when they are getting ready to execute the next phase. So they are not yet ready to move on it. This is why we have not yet read these articles. Get it? It is that simple. No hype, No rumors, just the FACT that they are not yet ready but we know when they are they must inform the people. In fact the CBI even told us they will, many times. So we sit and wait for this sign. This is now our expectation and major focus.

More news….

Baghdad / Al-Ghad Press:
The Saudi authorities are preparing the international road leading from the Kingdom to Iraq through the border port of Jumaima between the two countries near Rafha province, for the first time since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990. (This shows us things are normalizing. This is stability and this is what we need to see)

More news….

I also need to sort out and clarify some other rumors going around.

First let me say that the IMF support for Iraq will not end if Iraq does not RV their currency before August IMF review. How ridiculous to say such a thing? Iraq and the IMF (along with the World Bank and the World Trade Organization and many other three letter agencies) are working very closely with Iraq to position it for the next economic phase. This phase is not something of the distant future. It is now and it is progressing forward. Could it eventually include a significant increase in the value of the dinar? Yes, and will most probably (almost certainly) culminate in some significant increase in the value of the dinar. But let’s not put the cart before the horse. First things first. There is work to be done and we are seeing it play out. It is what we don’t know that we can’t tell you. It is too bold and ignorant for anyone to tell you everything is done. How the hell do they know? Are they mind readers?
​Second, I can assure you the passing of the supplementary Budget for 2017 has absolutely nothing to with the RV. It is not a trigger for the RV. So if you believe this - good luck with that! It is just another one of those self-made rumors/events that was conjured up by these so called intel “gurus” to mean the RV will be triggered as soon as the budget gets passed. We are now way too wise, way too smart to fall for this nonsense anymore. If it was true and there was some evidence for proof, I would be the first to tell you. But the isn’t. Every time there is a pending new budget of some kind these exact same rumors spread.  

I also want to clarify that there is absolutely no proof that the supplementary budget was done to include the new revalued rate thus it has nothing to do with the RV and is not a dependency for pulling the trigger on the RV. Instead the FACT  is the supplementary budget now changes to adjust the prior 2017 budget for less revenues needed to fight the ISIS war that can now be diverted to the reconstruction projects. More $$ coming from sources also are included. Remember Iraq was on a WAR budget and now has to move and adjust to a peacetime budget scenario. This is all it is, so relax! 

Third, there is no evidence or proof to back up the notion that the economic reforms (thus currency reform) must be completed prior to the meeting with the IMF in August and the next payment of the loan under the SDR to Iraq.

So once again a trumped up date of August 1st as a target for completion of the RV.

Forth, the new notes in the form of the lower denominations are NOT yet launched further. So this too is just a rumor without being verified with proof.

More news….

The speaker of the House of Representatives Salim al-Jubouri said on Sunday that the stage after the organization of "Daash" requires joint efforts to activate economic and investment development, while the Undersecretary of the Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Jabri expressed his country's readiness to cooperate with Iraq in all areas in order to achieve "aspirations.

So now the HOT news is all about the future of the Iraq – Iran relations. This may be all fine but Iraq must insist that Iranian militias withdraw and their military have no part in Iraqi affairs. This is the only acceptable solution for the USA too. Let’s see what more they have to say in today’s news articles below on this topic. Can this relationship work for the economy and the security of Iraq? 

Articles are below. As always, my comments are in italic RED.

Articles Begin
Iraq, Iran sign MoU for military cooperation

(Reuters)
July 23, 2017
DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran and Iraq signed an agreement on Sunday to step up military cooperation and the fight against "terrorism and extremism", Iranian media reported, an accord which is likely to raise concerns in Washington.

Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan and his Iraqi counterpart Erfan al-Hiyali signed a memorandum of understanding which also covered border security, logistics and training, the official news agency IRNA reported.
(This agreement means sharing of information and intelligence with Iran. Not good for Iraq and is not a safe practice to deal so aligned with Iran. Iran has sinister motives for this action. This will bite Iraq in the future.)

"Extended cooperation and exchange experiences in combating terrorism and extremism, border security, and educational, logistical, technical and military support are among the provisions of this memorandum," IRNA reported after the signing of the accord in Tehran.

Iran-Iraq ties have improved since Iran's long-time enemy Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003 and an Iraqi government led by Shi'ite Muslims came to power. Iran is mostly a Shi'ite nation.

US President Donald Trump has voiced concern over what he sees as growing Iranian influence in conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, where it is aligned with Shi'ite fighters.

Tensions between Iran and the United States have heightened since the election of Trump, who has often accused Tehran of backing militant groups and destabilizing the region.

Earlier this month, Trump said that new threats were emerging from "rogue regimes like North Korea, Iran and Syria and the governments that finance and support them". The US military has accused Iran of stoking violence in Iraq by funding, training and equipping militias. Iran condemns this, blaming the presence of US troops for the violence. (As I said this is going to be a long, difficult situation getting rid of Iranian influence in Iraq post Mosul liberation. Its like trading one terrorist organization for another., But is must be done. Do it now or pay the price later. Can Iraq stand up to another large scale terrorist attack?)


AP News: After Mosul victory, Iraq mulls future of Shiite militias

(An excellent article. It is long but very good information. It is once again emphasizing the need to get rid of the Iranian influence in Iraq. As I told you many times, this was going to be the next issue facing the Iraqi security. Was I correct? Once you have the fox in the hen house helping to protect the hens, what do you do when the need for protection is over. Do you then find a way to go after the hens? After all this is what you wanted in the first place.)

NAJAF, Iraq (AP) — In the wake of victory against the Islamic State group in Mosul, Iraq's political, religious and military leaders are debating the future of the country's powerful Shiite militias — the tens of thousands of men who answered a religious call to arms three years ago and played a critical role in beating back the extremists.

Some are demanding the mostly Iranian-backed forces be disbanded but the militias say their sacrifices on the battlefield and the fact they were sanctioned by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi have earned them a permanent place in the hierarchy of Iraq's security forces. (Can you see the problem here?)

The Shiite militias stepped into a vacuum when the Iraqi army largely dissolved after IS overran Mosul and pushed within 80 miles (130 kilometers) of the Iraqi capital.

Shiite Sheikh Fadil al-Bidayri was among the clerics at an emergency meeting in the holy city of Najaf in June 2014, when Iraq's Shiite religious elite — led by the country's top Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani — issued a call to arms as a last-ditch effort to protect Baghdad.

Tens of thousands of men, many of them members of the long-established Shiite militias with close ties to Iran, answered al-Sistani. In the days that followed, Iraq was flooded with training, money and weapons from Tehran. Billboards praising the groups — depicting Iraqi and Iranian paramilitary leaders side by side — popped up across Baghdad, alongside posters of martyrs honoring the fallen.

The government-sanctioned groups became known as the Popular Mobilization Forces, known as Hashed al-Shaabi in Arabic.
Although the Shiite militias did not play a central role in the battle for the city of Mosul itself, they moved into the deserts held by IS west of the city, massing around the town of Tal Afar and taking a border crossing between Iraq and Syria. They also took control of highways bisecting the Sunni heartland in western Iraq and used as vital military and civilian supply lines.

In past fights against IS, including the operation to retake for the cities of Tikrit and Fallujah, the Shiite militias were accused of sectarian killings and other abuses against minority Sunnis. They acknowledge some abuses may have occurred but say those responsible have been disciplined.

Over the past three years, as the military fight against IS in Iraq pushed the extremists back, Iran's influence in the country grew.

"We always knew that Iran would use this (call to arms) to increase its own power in Iraq, but we had no other choice," said al-Bidayri, recounting the meeting in Najaf and the panic-filled days after the 2014 fall of Mosul. Al-Bidayri says now that Mosul has been retaken and the Iraqi military has been partially rebuilt, he believes the Shiite militias should be disbanded, to curb Iranian influence in Iraq and reduce sectarian tensions. The elderly sheikh, like much of Iraq's religious establishment in Najaf, is a staunch nationalist and wary of Iran's growing influence.
 
"From the very beginning ... Iran used every opportunity to get involved in Iraq," al-Bidayri said. "Each time they used the protection of the Shiite people as an excuse."

Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr also called for the militias to disband during a March anti-government rally that saw thousands of his supporters fill the streets of Baghdad.

According to the 2017 Iraqi budget, the government-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces now number about 122,000 fighters. The umbrella is dominated by Shiite militias but also includes Sunni and Christian groups.

"The Hashed (Shiite militias) will remain . and our relationship with Iran will remain," said Hadi al-Amiri, a senior leader of the Badr Brigade, one of Iraq's most powerful Shiite militias.
Al-Amiri said IS' insurgent capabilities will pose a long-term security threat to Iraq after the military fight against the group is concluded.

Iraq's prime minister has also repeatedly professed his backing for the Popular Mobilization Forces, telling reporters at a press conference last week that they "must remain at least for years, as the terrorism threat still exists."

When asked if the Shiite militias would play a role in the fight for Tal Afar or move into Syria, Ahmad Ghanem, a member of the Popular Mobilization Forces training at a camp in Najaf said "we are waiting for instructions ... ready to move wherever they order us."

As the conventional fight against IS winds down, it's unlikely Iraq's existing security forces will be able to absorb all the militia factions.

"If you add up all of the demands from all the different factions and militia leaders, and then you look at how much actual power and money Iraq has to distribute to them, their claims are like 250 percent of whatever pie there is to be divided," said Nathaniel Rabkin, managing editor of Inside Iraqi Politics, a political risk assessment newsletter.

Rabkin said he doubted the groups would be content with patrolling rural areas or hunting so-called IS "sleeper cells." "They want to have real power and control," Rabkin said. "So I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed people with small to medium-sized militias running around Iraq six months to a year from now."

On the outskirts of Najaf, graves of militiamen who died battling IS have swelled among the plots in Wadi al-Salam, the well-known Shiite graveyard that is also the world's largest. Garlands of plastic flowers adorn headstones bearing the crests of the most powerful militia groups: the Badr Brigades, Saraya Salam and Kataib Hezbollah. Abdullah Abbas, a thin 18-year-old from Najaf, guarded a plot of graves of Katib Imam Ali fighters, a small militia closely tied to Iran and active both in Iraq and Syria.

In 2013, he left school at age 14, to become a fighter. The militia at the time mainly fought in Syria where it propped up President Bashar Assad's government. Since then, he has bounced between Syria and Iraq.

Abbas said that if the government decides to dissolve the Shiite militias, he could easily find better paying work as a laborer. But he admitted he couldn't imagine life without the purpose and prestige of being a militia fighter.

"I don't think a normal life is an option for me now," he said, shaking his head. "I can't imagine going back to what it was like before."


Iraq Central Bank Exceeded Expectations Last 2 Years

July 24, 2017

(This is a great article. It is telling us that, like the growing economy and as it changes, so the need for the CBI to grow and change. Not since 2004 have we seen these kind of major changes in the CBI.  The CBI has always had problems staying independent and there were many issues that were still in the grey area, as to their responsibilities. Now these are clarified and put into law. This is all amazing and wonderful to see. This is all for the next phase of growth that Iraq is moving aggressively towards. Take  a look at the list of changes. I also want to remind everyone that others are publishing this article under false heading to make it sound as if the CBI is issuing yet more currency into circulation. This is not true and the article speaks absolutely nothing of this. So this is all very positive news. )

Baghdad / Farah Al-Khafaf as  part of the state's efforts to keep abreast of global economic development, the Council of Ministers and MPs are working on amendments to the Central Bank of Iraq law. This comes at a time when an economist praised the new amendments, which he pointed out that it will be radical and important and will develop the Iraqi money market.

According to a copy of the draft law, "Al-Sabah" obtained a copy of it, the new law aims to:
​1)   increase the capital of the Central Bank of Iraq and
2)   to keep pace with global economic development and
3)   grant powers to the bank and
4)   increase the number of members of the Board of Directors of the bank from outside the bank and
5)   the formation of a committee to audit and
6)   issue commemorative coins and
7)   impose interest on Loans granted by the bank to commercial banks and
8)   the preservation of its funds from bookings issued by judicial decisions. "
The law stipulates that "the capital of the Central Bank of Iraq shall be one trillion dinars fully owned by the State." Reserve management allows the new law that " the Central Bank of Iraq will hold deals on foreign assets and manages the official foreign exchange reserves of the state according to international best practices.

The objectives of monetary policy, as the Board may invest such a reserve in gold located in the Iraqi Central Bank coffers cash, currencies Foreign currency and cash equivalents that are normally used in the performance of international accounts held by the CBI or for its account, credit balances payable on demand or payable after a short period in foreign exchange normally Used in the performance of international accounts maintained by the Central Bank of Iraq in its accounts or those that invest through repurchase agreements, repurchase and fixed deposits for multiple periods.

Full trust in  addition to the special drawing rights available to the Iraq Account of the International Monetary Fund, the status of Iraq's reserve with the International Monetary Fund, as well as any tradable debt securities issued by or fully trustworthy and approved by foreign governments, central banks or international financial institutions, authorities and agencies local and foreign , which are paid in foreign currencies , which are usually used in the performance of international accounts maintained by the Central Bank of Iraq or for his account. " investment portfolio also allows the bill to the bank , " the use of financial derivatives in investment portfolios Of as a tool to hedge, and the issuance of coins commemorative non-negotiable, and that the Central Bank of Iraq chooses the approval of the Minister of Finance , an international company based external audit and financial audit for a period of five (5) years, and may not be repeated selected periods in a row of more than (10) ten years. " (The CBI is agreeing to be independently audited)

Development work and sees economic expert Rahim Shammari told the "morning" that " the legislation of these amendments will contribute to the development of the Bank 's work, allowing greater freedom of the money after the capital increase." (They know the reserves will rise rapidly now that the economy is growing)
 
He pointed out that "these amendments are the second after the issuance of the law of the Bank issued by Order No. (56) for 2004 on the Coalition Provisional Authority (dissolved)," noting that "the Iraqi Central Bank succeeded during the past period in maintaining the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar, A good thing about Iraq's financial stock.

" New products Shammari expressed "optimism about the next phase, especially with the intention of the bank to develop its work by adopting new products." The governor of the Central Bank Ali al-Alaq had confirmed that Iraq has passed the difficult stage “pessimistic” that has passed during the past two years and accompanied by statements are not based on facts that raised terror in the Iraqi street.

The exchange rate of the bank, which is a "safety valve" for the economy and monetary policy of the country, that the rate of inflation did not exceed 2 percent, while the dinar maintained a stable exchange rate at acceptable limits despite the challenges, in addition to the index raised the interest of global institutions supporting, The Central Bank has raised the IMF's expectations by 10 billion dollars despite the exceptional circumstances that the country is undergoing.

Articles End
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,
Mnt Goat

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