Saturday, May 20, 2017

Islandg1211 Update, 20 May


I had saved this post because I knew I was on target with not looking for the RV until mid-summer 2017. I just wanted to update it. 

Since my last post, I have amended my expected RV window from mid-summer to the end of August/Labor Day. I'm also think the rate could come out closer to $2.00 than $1.00. 

(Originally posted Jan. 22, 2017)

PM Abadi and acting Governor of the Central Bank, Allak, both made statements in 2016 that predicted an outcome by Jan 1. Abadi had hoped to secure all of Mosul "by the end of the year," while Allak had hoped to "begin the project to delete the three zeroes by the beginning of the year." Both have had to admit that they need more time.
Let's be clear, the objective to secure Mosul and eliminate ISIS from Iraq, and the objective to bring the Iraq Dinar back into the international market with a market rate is still the focus. Both the security and the monetary reform is continuing to make progress. The only question is, "how much longer do they need?"

Abadi has asked for three more months to secure Mosul. Abadi is going to liberate Mosul, raise the flag, and there will be a national day of Unity and celebration Before Allak will RV. No one wants to see ISIS profit from the RV, so removing them is paramount.

The media is reporting that East Mosul is about completed, and that the battle for West Mosul will be staged, mobilized and begin in the coming weeks. West Mosul is the old part of the city with many narrow roads that make it impossible to bring in tanks, so this phase of the battle is expected to take longer. There are rumors that we are further along in the battle than the media is allowed to report. Allowing for that, in trying to predict a time frame for the complete liberation of Mosul, three more months still may be optimistic given the enormous task of house to house urban warfare in the old town.

If Trump acts on his words, he could try to accelerate the destruction of ISIS but would also increase causalities. The battle to retake Mosul has been underestimated in the press releases. The politicians have their own reasons for issuing statements to the press, and Abadi's boasting of liberating Mosul by the end of the year may not have been that accurate. The French president, not having a political agenda in this case, himself was fully briefed by the military as France has committed troops, who also met with the Kurds recently, has stated that Mosul "could be liberated by the summer." Hollande got briefed and came out saying "summer."

In addition to liberating Mosul, a deal with Kurds must be reached. This deal seems to be getting close. As Mosul is getting closer to completion, the urgency of finalizing the deal with the Kurds will increase. These negotiations could be like the NBA finals, where the last two minutes is when things really get done. But, I think that when Mosul is secure, the deal with the Kurds will get done.

IMO, the RV will happen after the liberation of Mosul and the flag has been raised, after an official celebration of unity and the defeat of ISIS, and after the deal with the Kurds is completed. IMO, the RV is probably going to need another six months, mid-summer 2017.

What will the rate be?

I go back to the appraisal of the value of the Iraq Dinar as being the rate the CBI will come out at, which was 86-$1.13. Iraq needs to de-dollarize the country, and coming out higher than the USD will help accomplish that. So, I'm expecting the rate to start out at the higher of the appraised value range, perhaps $1.10-$1.13 would be reasonable. After the Dinar is on Forex, the country itself is using it, and the massive imports needed for re-construction, the demand of the Dinar will increase its exchange rate pushing it back up closer to Kuwait's in the couple of years following the RV.

We all want to know the date and rate of the RV. Obviously, no one knows. Yet, so much information has been given to us. We have had an appraisal of the Dinar at around par with the USD So that's probably the rate.

Allak and Shabibi both stated that they need security and stability, so that's the date.

It's very reasonable to assume that the RV needs ISIS gone and a deal with the Kurds ---that's security and stability. Allak is saying exactly that, he is waiting for security from ISIS and also political stability.

So, we don't need to look for the RV before both of those things happen. Both events will be public. We will all see the celebration of the defeat of ISIS, and the Kurds making a deal with Baghdad.

It would appear that Jan 1 wasn't realistic, three more months is a bit optimistic, and, IMO, six more months looks spot on. For these reasons, I'm expecting an RV mid-summer at the high range of the appraisal, just over the USD.

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