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Saturday, March 18, 2017

MNT GOAT UPDATE, 18 MARCH

March 17, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief

Hi Everyone,

I bring you much news today. 

The newsletter is very long today…sorry! But the good news is they are opening up to us and telling us what is happening. This newsletter is chock full of goodies. Please read all of it carefully. Maybe some of is not exactly what you wanted to hear now that it’s mid-March already. If you were looking for an RV date and rate today, again I am sorry!

As always my comments are in italic RED.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The Secretary of the Expediency Council in Iran, Mohsen Rezai, announced yesterday that "the coming weeks will see the restoration of Mosul completely. Said Rezai during a speech in Lorestan province, southwestern Iran, on Wednesday, "we will see in the next few weeks, freeing the city of Mosul completely," he said, adding that after the restoration of Mosul, will continue to restore the rest of the Iraqi and Syrian from the control of the elements of the organization Daesh, according to cities as quoted by IRNA.  
(So we can see they moved the target to end of March/early April for full liberation of the region. But again I will say that the party is not over until the fat lady signs. What do I mean by this? I mean don’t put all your eggs in one basket and wait for the announcement of Mosul region to be liberated to trigger off some kind of magical RV. We also know there is the Iranian influence to take care of, the must secure the boarder with Syria (so ISIS does not infiltrate back), there is some level of Reconciliation and the economy must also crank back up to some level of normalcy, (as another article tells us today). See article under the article section below)

He added that Iran has made great strides on the political, security and defense levels, and it continues to provide support to the Iraqi and Syrian forces, and it is working to establish peace in the region. (Iran wants to establish peace in the region? You have to be kidding me! Iran is the reason IS infiltrated Iraq in the first place, negligence on the part of their patsy Maliki. What Iran says is not what Iran does. The same old game of politicians. Iran only wants to get rid Iraq of ISIS so it can then fill the gap. You see ISIS is in competition with Iran for control of Iraq. Believe me this is the only reason they are so concerned for Iraq.)

Economy News / Baghdad …Voice of the Council of Ministers, the draft anti-terrorism law and referred it to the House, also voted on a draft law the Iraq National Oil Company. (Folks this is HCL. I said they would be resuming news on the status of the laws very soon. Do they read my news letters or does Mnt Goat know something……lol…lol…Now we see it. This is very good news too. Once again the changes to the HCL are completed and the council of ministers forwarded it to parliament for a vote. The ball is in their court.)

We are now seeing some overdue infrastructure projects about ready to take place in Iraq. They are telling us they planned these projects in the 2017 budget and now they are getting ready to begin the work.

“The Council of Ministers search through the report submitted priorities forimplementation of water and sewage projects in Baghdad and the provinces, according to the comprehensive plan that the President of the Council of Ministers prepared and according to schedules and periods of time completed in 2017 and provide the funding for it,” noting that the Council voted on the “Bank loan The Japanese international cooperation JBIC to finance the Ministry of Electricity projects. ” (This is all excellent news because it is telling us they are finally serious about repairing the infrastructure, something that could have been and should have already been completed over the 8 years of Malaki, but they were too busy finding ways to steal the funded money out of the budget instead of helping their nation progress forward. Now we are seeing change.)
 
Then what happened next?
Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi accused, on Tuesday, the House of Representatives to transfer fifty billion dinars from sensitive assignments in the country for salaries and allocations of members of the House of Representatives, and while stressing he would not be silent about it, indicated that they worked on the "hide" those amounts in the budget under the slogan for the poor. (oh- it looks like the Maliki goons are trying the same old stuff again. They are attempting to take $$$ away from the projects and line their old pockets)
 
Then what happens next?
On Wednesday an article about the speaker of the House of Representatives, Saleem al - Jubouri, Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi to attend tomorrow a meeting to discuss his accusations on the budget disbursement I just talked about. Do you see nothing is coincidental? You have to get in with the flow the articles. Which means you have to read them.

The US President Donald Trump will meet with the Iraqi delegation consisting of Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and Kurdistan Region representative next week.

Before we move on to the articles I want to clarify one more ridiculous item to you. This item is so ridiculous this it tops everything I have heard so far in these conference calls and should be awarded the “most ridiculous” award of this entire dinar RV saga.

This is what I heard and I quote – “Do you think that there was an Executive Order by president Trump to implement the RV?”. Really folks? Come’on this question is like on another planet. Are you sure live on the planet earth?
 
First of all just bringing the question and asking it says that the one asking thought that maybe, just maybe, there might be some truth to it. Really?  Otherwise why would they even ask it?
You see this nonsense is an example of exactly what I am trying to make everyone realize. There is no common sense being used in the discussions around this investment. Instead of going to the source that can give us the FACTS like the CBI, you resort to hype and nonsense in the hope you are going to get the RV sooner. Did it ever make the RV happen any sooner?
 
Then you wonder why you get so confused. Sometimes I think many of these investors belong in an insane asylum. STOP PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS NONSENCE and stick to the FACTS! Don’t repeat the rumor unless you first take the time YOURSELF to substantiate it as a FACT. Substantiating it does not mean asking someone else on a conference call for “their opinion”.
This is spreading the rumor again since thousands hear it.
 
Stopping the rumor means getting down and dirty and researching it. If you don’t know how to do research, then just keep the rumor to yourself. Most of them are just so ridiculous why would you even give it the time of day?  . Just imagine a rumor being written on a piece of paper. Crumble it up and throw it away. That is all they are good for.

As always my comments are in italic RED.

Articles Begin


Abadi accuses parliament to transfer 50 billion dinars from sensitive allocations for the salaries of MPs

Alsumaria News / Baghdad
Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi accused, on Tuesday, the House of Representatives to transfer fifty billion dinars from sensitive assignments in the country for salaries and allocations of members of the House of Representatives, and while stressing he would not be silent about it, indicated that they worked on the "hide" those amounts budget is invisible under the slogan of the poor.

Ebadi said during his weekly and followed up, Alsumaria News, " the more we are approaching the desired victory surprised by talk of some politicians who also seems to live another world and speak interests may have a desire to appoint people Akhsou , " noting that "we for the first time we put the guidelines and conditions for appointments, but some of that case did not like the presence of lists have the names they want appointed by pressure on the minister to appoint relatives and favoritism and its staff , and this is a particular corruption. "

He said al - Abadi, "if it does not reform the political and social Ndhamna we should not be surprised by any reactions violent because injustice will not last either of injustice in the distribution of money or a job," adding that "some states and is not afraid for the poor and even the imposition of belonging names of his Minister fears being isolated and has, therefore , works on a bang as the poor to keep them. "

He continued : "We do not have any problems with the oil - producing provinces as key provinces and place of our attention and offer her services, but we also have interest in the governorates other , " and expressed regret for "hear the other in private meetings deduced from giving oil provinces due, they are looking for the interests of their provinces only and start talking enticing manner and do not want to edit areas . this is unfortunate and we consider it part of the consciousness of treason or not. "

The Abadi said that " the appeal budget was by the Ministry of Finance presented the list of paragraphs and it cost us from a legal point of a legal team to examine materials modified and there are materials related to the interests of the people have not been touched Others relate to political interests , " pointing out that "he was fifty billion dinars from the transfer sensitive assignments in the country for salaries and allocations of members of the House of Representatives. "

He said al - Abadi , "We will not be silent about it, therefore , appeal to those paragraphs because we know what 's going on and tell them these things is appropriate , frankly , " noting that they "worked to hide those amounts budget is invisible under the slogan for the poor and one of them to members of the House of Representatives, but a lot of deputies They do not know it or they did not vote for them if they knew them. "

He said he "was hiding such amounts to the interests for the other and the functions they want to increase it excuse the government 's keenness to absorb contracts and a daily wage, but they truly want to assign certain people to certain conditions and this is where there is no equality of opportunities and without justice," he said . "There are a lot has been appointed by the by political figures and we can follow up individually but today preoccupied with the battle we do not want to open other fronts, but the most important fight corruption and did not tolerate it and we are working within the international experience and quietly , without announcement. "

The MP for the mass of the Dawa Party , Haider al - Kaabi , on 26 February, an increase in the nominal salary for members of the House of Representatives , starting from the month of February from four million to five million dinars, adding that the decision would not be retroactive.

As he emphasized Parliament Speaker Salim al - Jubouri , in the February 27, 2017, that the Parliament will proceed to increase the salaries of members of the council.
Abadi al-Jubouri, demanding the presence of tomorrow'smeeting to discuss the doors of the budget exchange

BAGHDAD / tomorrow Press:
The speaker of the House of Representatives, Saleem al - Jubouri on Wednesday, Prime Minister Haider al - Abadi to attend tomorrow 's meeting to discuss his accusations on the budget disbursement.

Jubouri said in a statement, "tomorrow Press" received a copy of it, "express surprised by statements made by the vague Minister about the existence of financial and administrative corruption in the allocated money has been spent in the doors of the budget three months after the ratification and discussed by the Finance Committee with him but more than once."

The speaker of the House of Representatives , " the Prime Minister to appear before the people 's representatives in parliament on Thursday to release any defect or misconduct or financial corruption through the submission of documents in front of public opinion, not just the distribution of the charges for unknown purposes", calling for " an open and a live session for dialogue on the doors of the budget disbursement. "

He said the "House of Representatives has scheduled to attend the prime minister and parliament sessions several times to answer oral questions."
The head of the House of Representatives , " the transfer of the proceedings of the meeting which will be attended by the Prime Minister through the media so that the Iraqi people familiar with the fact that the doors where the public money exchange", calling for "not only press statements that cluttered the citizen had no relation to the fight against corruption and the corrupt . "

Prime Minister Haider al – Abadi accused on Tuesday, a number of deputies to transfer allocations estimated at 50 billion dinars from the allocations of the poor to personal salaries, stressing that this is the main reason for the challenged government paragraphs of the budget being used to appear to the public that it allocations for the poor, but in secret so not described.

(When will the corruption end? Who’s head will roll this time?)
PM Abadi and Kurdistan Region Representative to Meet US President

Mar 15, 2017   8:01 pm
Erbil (BasNews) The US President Donald Trump will meet with the Iraqi delegation consisting of Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi and Kurdistan Region representative next week.
   
A senior official source in Kurdistan Region confirmed to BasNews that PM Abadi and a representative of Kurdistan Region, who are set to take part in the global coalition’s meeting, will also meet the US President in Washington.
   
Minister Falah Mustafa, head of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Department of Foreign Relations told BasNews on Monday that Kurdistan Region will officially take part in the meeting of the coalition members after it complained about its exclusion from the previous sessions.
   
He revealed that Fuad Hussein, Chief of Staff to the Kurdistan Region presidency, will represent the Kurdistan Region in the meeting and he is also expected to address the meeting about the war on IS and the post-IS era.
   
On March 22, the United States of America will host a major meeting of the 68 member states of the coalition against IS and the US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, will chair the talks, the State Department said on Thursday.

America and Saudi Arabia discuss a new agreement
The White House announced on Wednesday that "the US president Donald Trump and the Crown Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the opportunities to develop new economic programs and investments between the two countries during a meeting on Tuesday. (Is this not what we wanted to see. New economic growth for the USA. What has taken Washington so long to see these opportunities in the middle east. It’s literally wide open for the taking….lol….Go for it Donald! I am still waiting to see the USA investments in Iraq come to the news media. Could this be the meeting with Abadi and the KRG next week? Of course it is! Go Donald!
 
I have to add something now – it is refreshing finally to see a president in the USA Whitehouse knowing what he is actually doing as to benefit the American people and boost their economy.)

The White House said in a statement, seen by "Sky Press", "The Trump expressed during his meeting with Prince Mohammed support for the development of a new Saudi-American Program focuses on the energy, industry, infrastructure, technology and involves investments worth may exceed $ 200 billion over the next four years.

The two leaders also agreed to continue consultations in the field of energy to support global economic growth and the reduction of "supply disruptions and volatility."

The US president made earlier in a phone call with Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, the White House said then that the talks dealt with, in particular, what he described as Iranian threats and militancy in the Iranian nuclear deal, as well as the establishment of safe areas in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir expressed a few days ago expressed optimism towards the relations with the United States under the new administration. (Oh- I thought president Trump was going to destroy all foreign relations around the world? Really? I wish everyone would just give this guy a chance and see what he can do. It can’t hurt. Just look at the mess left from the former presidents that he has to clean up to even begin to make any real progress.)
 
Liberated connector re-life economic relations between Mosul and Erbil

It has always been between Erbil and Mosul business relationship active for many reasons, perhaps the most notable near the two cities from each other geographically and relations historical between residents of the two cities, and this business relationship has reached its peak by the year 2003 and lasted until 2014 and after control Daesh Mosul and areas of its relations fell to the degree of absence because of the security situation, which have fallen to the region, currently with the liberalization of large parts of the city and the approaching liberation operations end, signs of positive economic activities between Erbil and Mosul show again in preparation for the post-liberation, as signs to the economic recovery expected by economists for the region in the future, of by participating in the reconstruction of the province of Nineveh.

In this regard, the media department official in the Chamber of Erbil Trade, Abdul Wahid Taha said, for (Basenyoz) that " the conductor of economic and trade relationship eternal with the region, especially with the capital Arbil , " noting that, this relationship arose given because the two cities location from each other geographically.

He added that "investment companies in Erbil , fully prepared to participate in the reconstruction of Mosul , " noting that it depends on the provincial council and the administration of Nineveh and the extent of their awareness to benefit from the experiences of Kurdish investment companies to participate in the reconstruction of the city.

He said Abdul Wahid, saying , "It is known that there is a foreign and international companies based in Arbil , the capital of the region , " adding that these companies will have an important role in the reconstruction of the city and thus revive the economic movement in the region.

For his part, said economic expert, Dr. Sinan Al-Assaf, for (Basenyoz) that "the Kurdistan region will witness the remarkable economic growth in the post-liberation Mosul stage," adding, editing the city step towards the return of international companies that have withdrawn from the labor market in the region after the control of the organization of the province Nineveh and other areas of the border with the province.
Says Dr. Sinan, he said that "foreign investors on the awareness and understanding of the issue of the need for Iraq to rebuild after getting rid of Daesh , " adding that, it will revive the country 's economic through the introduction of foreign currency and rotation in the market and provide job opportunities for the unemployed.

The province of Kurdistan since 2014 is going through a financial and economic crisis as a result of cutting its share of lower global oil prices the federal budget, and the reception of the region for nearly two million refugees and displaced people.

The President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, announced earlier that the restoration of the city of Mosul from the control of the organization Daesh, will reflect positively on the Kurdistan Region, especially economically.
(I presented his recent article to you today because it describes the situation as to why it is important to liberate Mosul region prior to any RV. To say “prior to any RV” what am I really saying, what is the CBI really saying? What I believe is being said is to correct the situation back to normalcy as to allow the region to return to the same, if not better, economy prior to the ISIS occupation.
 
The article is telling us it will grow beyond where it was. So when the CBI says they need SECURITY and STABILITY and that ISIS must be removed as part of this effort, by reading this article today you can get a get a better understanding of just what the CBI means when they say this. It is not just all about getting rid of ISIS, although this will bring SECURITY but it is also about the loss of the economy and the breakdown of the economy in that region. Remember the CBI is concerned about the $$$$.
 
So combine the ISIS security mess with the drop in the oil prices in 2014 and you can begin to get a picture of the situation. So my point also is you can liberate Mosul and Anbar regions all you want but Iraq also needs the economies of these regions to start up again once liberated. This will come very quickly.
 
I can compare getting the economy going again like a very huge, old  battleship ship at sea when the captain says “full speed ahead” and then the engine room cranks up the engines. At first there is a slight delay before the engines are perking along at a top speed again. This top cruising speed is what the economy of Iraq needs “prior to the RV”. Then once reached some catalysts (I believe it will be currency reform) will be like the order for “full speed ahead” and away they go….)

The meeting of the Iraqi government delegation with the IMF in Amman "important and successful."

(remember in my recent past news letter I talked about the 2nd meeting of the 2nd Stand-by agreement (Oct 2015) between IMF and Iraq. We know this review has taken place this week and is now over. This article tells us it was successful and the IMF was very happy with Iraq. This is all very good news.)

BAGHDAD - The Journal News
Considered the appearance of Mohammed Saleh Financial Advisor to the Prime Minister, on Friday, the meeting of the Iraqi government delegation with the IMF in Amman "important and successful."

Saleh said in a statement received "Journal News", that the meeting of the government delegation with the International Monetary Fund was a second revision of the standby credit agreement consultations with the International Monetary Fund and the results were very successful and the fund will issue a final statement in this regard soon. "

He added that "some of the statistical data and digital facts relating to public expenditure and income fund has a broader clarification request will be presented at the end of the next Nissan Fund praised the Iraqi government's ability to confront terrorism and impressive victories achieved under exceptional economic circumstances."

"The program with the IMF is progressing normally and typically very successful."  (stay tuned for the public press release from the IMF on this event)
 
 
Statement at the End of an IMF Mission on Iraq
(then this article pops out later in the day 3/17 from the IMF)

March 17, 2017
End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

In 2016, real GDP growth was sustained at 11% supported by a large increase in oil output that benefitted from past oil investments. In 2017, economic activity is expected to remain muted due to a 1.5% contraction in oil production and only a tepid recovery of the non-oil sector.

Further reforms to create fiscal space for inclusive growth, strengthen the business environment, reduce corruption and repair the banking sector are needed to support private sector-led growth and diversification of the economy.(Needed to support any change in value of the currency too, like an RV?)

The Iraqi authorities and the staff of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) held discussions in Amman from March 5–17, 2017 on the 2017 Article IV Consultation and the second review of Iraq’s 36-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) approved by the IMF Executive Board on July 7, 2016 (See Press Release No. 16/321).

Here is the link to it:
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2016/pr16321.htm


The SBA aims to restore fiscal and external balance and to improve public financial management while protecting social spending. The first review under the SBA was completed on December 5, 2016 ( See Press Release No. 16/540).

Mr. Christian Josz, Mission Chief for Iraq, issued the following statement:
“Iraq has been hard hit by the conflict with ISIS and the plunge in global oil prices since 2014. The government has responded to the fiscal and balance of payments crisis with a large but necessary fiscal adjustment supported by financial assistance from the international community. In 2016, real GDP growth was sustained at 11 percent supported by a large increase in oil output that benefitted from past oil investments. Nevertheless, the non-oil economy experienced an 8 percent contraction due to the conflict and the fiscal consolidation. In 2017, economic activity is expected to remain muted due to a 1.5 percent contraction in oil production under the agreement reached by the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries, and only a tepid recovery of the non-oil sector.

“The plunge in oil prices has driven the decline of Iraq’s gross international reserves from $53.7 billion at end 2015 to the still comfortable level of $46.5 billion at the end of December, 2016. Fiscal pressures remain significant with the government deficit remaining at 12 percent of GDP in 2016, due to continuing weak oil prices and rising humanitarian and security spending. Total public debt increased from 32 to 64 percent of GDP during 2014-16. Credit growth decelerated and non-performing loans in state-owned and private banks increased significantly in 2016.(So what is a non-performing loan? It is loan that was not made good and the banks lost money. This is not the way they want the economy to go.)

“The authorities have maintained the exchange rate peg which remains a key nominal anchor. Medium term growth prospects remain modest driven by projected flat oil production and investments in the face of the revenue constraint and modest pickup in non-oil growth supported by the expected improvement in security and implementation of structural reform.

Further reforms to create fiscal space for inclusive growth, strengthen the business environment, reduce corruption and repair the banking sector are needed to support private sector-led growth and diversification of the economy once post- ISIS reconstruction is underway. (So the IMF is saying there is much work to do post – ISIS. So let’s get ISIS taken care of first and see where IRAQ goes from there. My opinion – they are not ready to RV anytime in the very near future….sorry! The recent news is they will continue fighting ISIS into EARLY April, there words not mine. Don’t shoot the messenger.)

Risks remain high, arising primarily from uncertainty in the oil price outlook,security and political uncertainties, and administrative weaknesses.(SECURITY and STABILITY are still not at the levels needed as of the review! This does not sound very good! There is still work to be done)

“The Iraqi authorities and IMF staff started discussions on the second review of the SBA. These discussions will continue during the upcoming IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings from April 21–23, 2017 in Washington, DC.

During the visit, the team met with the Acting Minister of Finance Prof. Abdulrazzaq A. Jaleel Essa, Acting Governor of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), Dr. Ali Mohsen Ismail Al-Allaq(yes -Allaq is still there as proxy governor, No Dr. Shabibi mentioned!) the Financial Adviser to the Prime Minister Dr. Mudher Saleh, and officials from the ministries of finance, oil, planning, the State Oil Marketing Organization, the Central Statistical Office, the Central Bank of Iraq, and representatives from the Kurdistan Regional Government, and the Board of Supreme Audit.

The team would like to thank the Iraqi authorities for their cooperation and the open and productive discussions.”

Articles End
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,

Mnt Goat

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