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Saturday, February 11, 2017

ONE WHO KNOWS UPDATE, 11 FEB

"Black Friday Type RV Problems" - One Who Knows - 2.10.17

Black Friday Type RV Problems

Ironically, if we had believed the nay-sayers who said that we still had a long wait, we may have already had the GCR by now. It is a weird balance between getting the truth, and having the truth delay what we want.

Interestingly, I have heard from many different sources, that it will happen when "we least expect it." Interestingly, the time we will Least Expect It, will be the time of the highest confusion, when we are not sure of anything, especially not the date it will go. This seems to be the plan and I think it has merit.

The best way I can explain this concept is by talking about "Black Friday" the day after Thanksgiving, which is the biggest shopping day of the year. It is pure craziness and wrought with anxious people, quick tempers and a short time frame.
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Black Friday Is Large Numbers First

If you were to "Graph" the flow of people into the stores on Black Friday, it might be 70%? in the first hour, the ones who are pushing in the doors at the stores, and the rest trickling off, less and less till hardly any shoppers at the end of the day.

This is a Desperate Shopping Model that the stores use because they know that whatever store you go to first, will be the place you will do the most shopping. You will have little left to shop at other stores later.

Inefficient

Unfortunately, this is a highly inefficient model for processing people through a system. You have to hire a huge number of people the first hours/days, and then let them go as the rush diminishes off over time. Not only is it inefficient for the store, it is hard on the customers as well since in these high traffic situations, it is very hard to get any decent service.

The Source Of The Problem

The problem of huge numbers of shoppers at the same time comes from months of advertising announcing that on a certain day, at a certain time, the store will have certain deals which will only last for a short time. So EVERYBODY goes at the same exact time. This is the Black Friday Model.

This Will NOT Work For The GCR

First, we cannot announce the exact date and time because of the bad guys. Second, if everybody found out about the 800#s at the same time, it would overload the call centers. They can't take that many calls at the same time. This Black Friday model cannot work for the GCR, and is highly Inefficient, and not as effective either.

The Solution

The solution is to have a first wave of people find out about the 800#s and call in, then even more find out, and more and more etc.

It ramps up to a peak calling volume and then trickles off over time.

This is better and more efficient by spreading the call volume out over time, rather than all in the first few minutes/hours. This model works best when people are not expecting the numbers, which would be a time of "least expectation."

Of course there will be those who are always looking for the 800#s 24 hours a day, and they will get them first. Then when others wake up and turn on their computers and see the numbers, they will call. Then these people will contact others, etc. Soon everybody will know about the 800#s and most will have called already.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that if you are discouraged and confused as to when this will actually happen, it might mean that it is about to happen. They can't have a Huge Rush at the very same moment. However, once the numbers get out, they will spread to others quickly, but still slow enough for the call centers to keep up. It seems wrong to not expect it, but, it will take the pressure off the system, if we don't all find out at the exact same exact time.
Frankly, I am not staying up into the "wee hours" to wait for the numbers. If they come out at that time of night, they will be there in the morning when I get up. As long as you call within the first 24 to 48 hours, you should be fine. At this point, after all these years, a few hours difference, is nothing at all. Relax, it is all running according to plan, and the plan is good.

Frankly, I doubt we will make it to Monday without getting the 800#s. However, don't sweat getting them first. Those who get the number at the very earliest, will get the first appointments sure enough, but those who get appointments a little later, will get to hear about the first appointments in the blogs. We should be getting a lot of reports. No matter what, you couldn't be in a better place than you are now.

May You Get Everything You Want and Live The Life Of Your Dreams

Signed: One Who Knows

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