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Thursday, February 2, 2017

MNT GOAT UPDATE, 2 FEB

February 02, 2017 Mnt Goat News Brief
 
Hi Everyone,
 
I bring you much news today.   
  
We are now seeing the kickoff of the offensive against the western Mosul region. According to the news media in Iraq - yesterday the order was given to begin advancements toward the western of Mosul (across the Tigris River). It was accompanied by artillery shelling and aerial bombardments. These moves came at a time when the Ministry of Defense announced they would re-consider some of the details of the battle plan so as to take advantage of the lessons learned from the offensive at the eastern side operations. They are doing this in the hope this could accelerate the final resolution and liberation of Mosul. 
 
So this week we heard yet more news on what it takes to bring in foreign investors into the Iraqi “market” economy. What else is needed?
 
How should they structure their economy? Should it be capitalism dominated or socialistic dominated? Maybe a balance between both?


Socialistic – highly govt run, subsidies to people, social handouts. Govt heavy on controlling wealth of nation. Govt decides how wealth will be distributed among the people.

Capitalistic – free and open markets, free flow of capital, profits decide how money will be distributed and products produced. However it needs laws for
fairness and a way to handle disputes (legal system).

It is nice to see them having these conversations. This will be the growing pains as the country progresses in the future out of the dictatorship and a highly socialistic form of government. They need to put laws in place and to allow for freedom of capital flows to strike the needed balance. This is not something they can do or will do overnight. This will take years if not decades but we are seeing now even the point where investors are choosing to come into Iraq. We are seeing the progress. But they still need that “priming” of the capitalistic engine I alluded to in my last news letter. I believe they are at the point now that this sector may be stable enough now for the RV. Having a plan and constantly moving towards the target was needed. 

As always my comments are in italic RED.

Articles Begin

 
 
America plans to build the largest consulate complex in the world .. and the province Kurdish official: they consider us 
 
Twilight News / Foreign relations official in the Kurdistan Democratic Party dominated Hawrami on Wednesday that the US plans to build the largest consular complex in the world in Arbil, capital of Kurdistan Region.
 
Hawrami said at a seminar held in Erbil, said that "America has a consulate in the province of Kurdistan, one of the greatest countries in the world," adding that "the consul here is the former US ambassador to Pakistan and this is evidence of interest in Bkordstan and looking at it as a state."
He pointed out that "due to the adoption of the United States consular largest complex in the world in Arbil."
 
And increased Hawrami saying that "no diplomatic representations and consulates of 35 countries in the Kurdistan region, including the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, creates significant opportunities in front of the people of Kurdistan, in the circumstances in the Middle East and the ongoing changes.
 
Parliamentary Finance likely decline in the dollar exchange rate in local markets  
 
Economy News / Baghdad ...
 
Parliamentary Finance Committee suggested, on Wednesdaythe low dollar
exchange rate in the domestic market after the measures taken by the
Central Bank of Iraq to curb the rise by pointing out that the most important
Treatments that are taken by the Bank to pump a good amount of dollar banking
and accounting offices objectionable conditions. (“measures take by the Central
Bank”? What measures? We heard about these measures in the past. So they
are telling us these measures are working as there is a decline in the dollar
exchange rate)
 
He said the Commission's decision meat Ahmed Rashid in a press statement,
"The domestic market will see a decline in the dollar's exchange rate after the
measures taken by the Central Bank of Iraq to curb the rise in the previous period."
 
 
Meat and added that "the Central Bank has allocated US dollar exchange companies
owed and you already import and export transactions and audit by the dollar."
 
He pointed out that "the most important treatments that are taken by the Central
inject a good amount of dollar accounting banking offices in violation of the
conditions." 
 
(So now I have to clarify something to everyone concerning this value of the dinar
against the US dollar.  I wish you will spread this news to everyone too who may
no be able to read this news letter.
 
When we talk about the increase in the dinar rate for the RV we are not talking about
or looking for the “artificial” rate of the dinar at 1170, 1166, etc to rise. No correlation!
 
The “artifical” rate, as the CBI and IMF determined for the sanctions is just that “artificial”
nothing else. I am sure they had some kind of formula to use way back when they came up with the initial rate. This is why they had to peg it to something and they usually use the US dollar in cases like this since it is the most stable currency. They have used this technique in dealing with other countries too in the past. This procedure is nothing new.  
 
So don’t wait and watch the current dinar rate (artificial rate) to rise for our RV increase
Or sign that our RV is close at hand. Absolutely no correlation!
 
So why does the CBI keep talking about the CBI rate then?
 
The CBI only keeps talking so much about this “artificial” rate because they must get it stable against the US dollar, to which it is pegged to right now. That is all.
 
But why must it be stable?
 
They are trying to control it. They must be able to control it. The IMF is concerned about this artificial rate to the dollar but not so much as they are concerned about the ABILITY of the Central Bank to control it’s own currency.  Get it?
 
We know the IMF told Iraq that they gauged it to 2% variance up to down. We also know
for a fact they fully intend move to a “basket” of currencies in an SDR away from the peg to the dollar. So the ABILITY to control one’s currency if vital if this next step is to occur.
 
How do I know this?
BECAUSE THE CBI TOLD US THIS! I am not guessing. No conjecture. Remember?
 
So why would there be any need for all this  hype over this “artificial” rate changing?
 
There is no need. I actually heard someone ask a question on a dinar community conference call about the market exchange rate being announced at 1300 dinars per USD.  They were all hysterical saying it would a long time to RV cause it was even going in the wring direction,meaning down not up. The person was upset because she
felt the dinar value was going down not up – as she expected the artificial rate would need to go slowly up to reach the RV. Since she has been told many times the rate would increase slowly this is how she interpreted it.
 
Really? Who is teaching you this? Who are you listening to?
 
Folks this is not sound reasoning and there is no collation, except that the CBI MUST BE ABLE TO CONTROL its own currency pre or post RV.
 
So when the time comes and the CBI is ready they will raise the value of the dinar but this will only happen out of necessity so the market economy can operation freely, thus they will move from the currency “closed” economy to the “open” or “global” free trade economy. They were never intended to stay in the artificial rate. In facts I know that they are even VERY late in making this move to the “global” economy.
 
What caused the delay?
 
The delay was mainly caused by two factors – dictatorship ambitions of Nori al-Maliki the war on ISIS. I have explained both of these issue in great detail to you in my past news letters. Go read them.
 
So then what form of an economy will they end up with?
 
It will be some form of a mixed economy (socialism and capitalism) probably slanting more to the capitalistic side and the private sector. Why do I say this? I say this because I read the articles, hundreds of them. Take these articles in today’s news letter as an example. What do they tell us by this leading economists?
 
They are all telling us the gov’t desperately needs to get out of the social welfare state model. This finally sunk into their heads when over the recent economic crisis it was
hard to keep paying all these salaries, pensions and govt benefits and fight a war at the same time. Instead the IMF coached them and trained them on how to let the FREE market and private sector pay take over this role.)  

Hakim: The draft national settlement ready and this condition was officially launched  

According to a member of the leadership of the Islamic Supreme Council Mohsen Hakim, on Wednesday, the readiness of the draft "national reconciliation" put forward by the National Alliance recently, pointing out that it will offer officially after the liberation of the city of Mosul in case of a consensus on them. (not yet put forward as Mosul is not yet liberated completely. But the draft is ready and will be put forward to the National Alliance at that time)

Hakim said in an interview with the official Iranian news agency "IRNA", he was "in the framework of the National Alliance formed a special committee of all blocs and parties in the coalition of this committee and the codification of the draft (national reconciliation) is ready now."

"The draft is now under consideration and discussions which Thoudy UN support, but in the event was a consensus on them, after the liberation of Mosul and Daesh expelled permanently from Iraq, will go officially as a document (national reconciliation) in Iraq."

Hakim pointed out that "this draft consists of four pages develop practical solutions to get out of the political problems plaguing the country, and discuss and discuss with representatives of the various classes of the Iraqi people."

He added that "the coalition does not claim that these are free from shortage draft, but developed after dozens of hours of investigation and with the participation of specialists and experts and toast, and was put forward and writing, and the United Nations ensured that it will support this document," stressing that "the goal of this bill is to preserve the unity of Iraq and the political independence of the Iraqi decision and the preservation and maintenance of the rights of all members of the Iraqi people. " (This article is excellent news. They are still planning to go forward with the reconciliation law just as soon as the liberation of Mosul in completed. It must be coming shortly since they keep talking about it.So how many years have we heard about this National Reconciliation? How many forms has it taken? Remember back to 2011 and 2012 they kept taking about the Reconciliation Conference? )

Demand for the adoption of a clearly defined economic system

2/2/2017 0:00

BAGHDAD / Imad emirate
Differing visions from economic advisors and specialists on the economic system adopted by Iraq after the 2003, calls for the adoption of a clear approach to economic policies that should keep pace with the current stage prepared by academics in the transition between the gradual market economy , the closest of the capitalist system, and away from the system totalitarian central planning unrestricted ownership of private freedoms.  (oh we all know this principle of private ownership of land, facilities, assets and the profits is a must if Iraq is to succeed with foreign investors. Now we see economists criticizing the govt for not making enough changes in this direction to facilitate their goals.)

Economic academic d. Abdul Karim Jaber Hnjar reported that the multiplicity of economic systems and differ from state to state due to several factors, including the multiplicity of social objectives in contemporary societies, and this is the result of differences in the preferences given to social goals, and therefore the economists, according to this fact, not issuing assessments on goals but they recommend the best appropriate means to reach them with multiple ways to get to the economic objective, but the difference remains the priority being given to some of the goals without the other.

He explained Hnjar in an interview for the "morning", if the Iraqi economy to adopt a market economy and economic freedom, there is legislation and the laws of many are still in the works, restrict this trend in several productive sectors, noting the importance of knowing the essence of the free system of the capitalist economy, to say that this trend economic freedom depends competition to achieve maximum profit , which is the motivation for production. 
The international organization, in cooperation with the government has worked over the past years to adopt laws guillotine project take on the pruning of laws that are inconsistent with the transition towards a free market economy. (so they are telling us in the past outsider experts have come into Iraq and helped implement needed laws. They mention a process called “guillotine project” and we all should remember this from the past and how the UN came in to help. So maybe he is saying to use it again and “prune” some more of these laws to be more consistent with the market economy)
 
He pointed out that economic activity is mainly subject to market forces (supply and demand), and is the personal interest of the engine for each economic efforts that achieve the interests of the total, and here take capitalism multiple aspects including banking capital, as loans are used to get the benefit without the production, including industrial, The commercial is one of the manifestations of which are based on the monopoly of import and export and control of the production. 
 
There are visions says the country still depends on some aspects of the socialist system, we find in the other direction far from this central thrust, as based socialist system on the collective philosophy is permissible for a state monopoly replaces competition and public ownership of the means of private property alternative production.
 
He pointed out that the mixed system that combines capitalism advantages of socialism and avoids, have varied countries in the extent of the combination of the two systems characteristics, the state that gives more weight to the characteristics of capitalism and the introduction of some socialist characteristics, called its economic system (capitalist mixed) which gives weight to the characteristics of socialism and taking some of the characteristics of the capitalist economic system is called ( a socialist mixed). (he is describing that he believes that any free market economy must also have a balance of social and capitalistic characteristics. Thus I believe he is alluding that Iraq should also follow this model, but to be careful not to weight too much on socialist characteristics and stike a balance)
 
He noted that the functions of the state in the mixed system is embodied to maintain competition and provide a legal basis, through the achievement of justice in the distribution of income and to ensure that living and adjusted GNP to reduce the burdens of society as a result of some commodities costs, by issuing legislation and take the necessary measures and impose taxes and fees on the projects be equal the costs, and the provision of social goods and services. (Now he is describing what he believes the functions of the social characteristics should be in the mixed system. Can you see Iraq has been working toward all these items? )
 
At the conclusion of his speech that mentioned services come under the title of state authority and be a center for decision - making, in order to achieve fiscal policy and function of other goals as an economic unit operating efficiently.
 
An invitation to take advantage of the investment companies to activate insurance
 
2/2/2017 0:00 
 
BAGHDAD / Mustafa al - Hashimi of the 
Iraqi insurance market looking for an outlet to get out of the consequences of international sanctions imposed on the country since the nineties of the last century, through a call by a specialist to Insurance Association and the Office of Insurance to study the proposals offered by specialists affairs insurance in order to achieve progress in this important economic sector, since that would reflect positively on the country 's economy in general. 

According to a member of the Iraqi Insurance Association Star Krmd al - Faisal, this depends on the ability of ( the Office of Insurance, and Insurance Association, insurance companies, re-insurance) to create an effective, equitable, secure and stable market provides protection to customers of the risks and the technical and financial foundations of sound away from any prejudice to the rights of the parties and embed these principles in insurance institutions in the strategies and business plans.
(blablabla – I did not print the entire article as it is more detail than I think we need to get bogged down in for our purpose. But you get the point in this article? We know in order to have a successful market economy Iraq will need the insurance sector to take part. I like this article because it emphasizes this fact and explains why insurance is needed. I quote from the article above – to create an effective, equitable, secure and stable market provides protection to customers of the risks and the technical and financial foundations of sound”. Protection, protection, protection,,,,,say it again…protection for the investors….Folks this is all exactly what we would expect to see in a move towards a market economy and want to see happening at this point. The key is how do they accomplish this? Can they do it with a currency that is worthless? How do these foreign investors pay for their insurance? These insurance companies coming into Iraq will surely be foreign and so do you think they will want to mess around with or can even function with this sanctioned currency and a “closed economy”. Oh – here is another entity too that will want to take its profits abroad, the insurance company. Also how do they pay out on claims if they can’t readily and easily convert (exchange) from one currency to the next? Hope you get my point?)
 
Articles End
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Much love to ya all,
Mnt Goat

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