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Wednesday, December 21, 2016

KTFA UPDATE, 21 DEC

Frank26:  These numbers for oil have now been calculated to their pennies ..............like Bob Barker playing the high low game  I invite You FAMILY to put up your ideas of where oil has to be in order to fuel the budget properly ............we will go over it on the CC tomorrow (Wednesday) ............ please enjoy . 
 
Cleitus:  :  Frank isn't this putting the cart before the horse?  I guess the way I see it to answer your question is, we have to see the Rider kick in first to expose the new rate..., then we can deduce from that where the price of oil should be to "fuel the budget properly."


Tank:  Cleitus, I am inclinded to agree with you. As it's been said...only a few (maybe 3 - 4 entities know the new rate: UK, UST, BIS and ??? IMF???) know what the new rate will be if/when they follow through with this RV this time.

((((Frank mentioned in last CC that no one at the CBI would know because of possibility of leaking to public. Which would swander the value and basically ruin any help a rate increase would help with. but I on the other hand believe that there has to be at least one-two person(s) at the CBI and the IMF that also know what the new rate will be.  <> I say this because if it can't be made known to a person(s) at the CBI & IMF, because they can't be trusted to keep their mouths shut, then why on earth would they be in a  position to lead a Central Bank or a Monitary Fund??? Therefore, it is of my previously stated opinion that UK, UST, BIS, IMF and CBIknow what the rate will be )))

With that all being said and getting back to the reason I started this post...It's almost impossible to know what the price should be for oil to be positions at, without knowing how much the new currency rate will be, to know between the two...how to handle the budget. Ya see, the budget is figured via a formula.

A (budget) + B (price per barrel & currency rate) = C (means/ability to manage budget)  So, without the realtime currency rate, the formula is incomplete; we can speculate, but that's it. Not to mention the fact that because Iraq has been pilfered/corrupt for so long, I would expect that the government wants to simply have money to pay the bills/loans and be happy. Getting the reserves back up to an acceptable standard is 2nd behind paying bills.

Like any parent worth their salt knows, ya pay the rent, electric, water bills first. Then ya buy food for your kids and clothes if able. Then and only then, you try to put put into savings acccount or put some money aside for something you want to do in the future.
  
I bring up this because they (Iraq Government) has to pay their bills first. If they do not start buying/providing food, ammunition and weapons to the forces fighting against Da'esh...Iraq will not have a force left to continue/finish the fight. It's getting cold out and they are broke and hungry. Having warm clothes, staying dry and having weapons, protective gear and ammunitions to properly fight this battle are essential. Then having the ability to pay said fighting forces, so they continue to fight, provides some reassurance to the fighting forces as well as their families...that the people of Iraq are truly behind them in what all they are doing/sacrificing for their country.

I read a lot of articles about how the budget has sections in it for reconstruction, etc. But the government should probably focus on what is truly important in order for them to be able to maintain a possitive outcome of this war. Let's win the battle(s) / War against Da'esh before we start allocating money for reconstruction. They have millions of families that are homeless, yes.

But because their homes are destroyed, those families may feel it better off to start over somewhere else in the world, away from all the fighting that has been going on in that region of the M.E. for going on for decades. So as for the funds being allocated in the budget, it's going to be expensive to pay all of these bills. It is of my opnion that the budget was ultimately tailored with a currency rate of at least $3.24, with a ppl of oil at just over $42  
 
With this being in and of my opinion, Iraq has a LOT of rebuilding to do, yes. Iraq still has a lot of corruption being dealt with, yes. Iraq is restructuring their government to work more proficiently, yes. We can see all of this through the digital media being shown on T.V., newspapers, social media and other forms of information like word of mouth coming from the citizens, if you happen to talk to some of them. But is there an ability to become 'The Next Dubai'...in my opinion, sure. They could.

They have the resources available. They just need to show discipline if/when the money/resources start to flood into the country. I have found that in the Kurdish area, even through war the peoples faced, they found ways to take the money they were given and allocated it to construction / security of their ares of control. They have nice malls. They have starbucks. They have lavish grocery stores. They have clean streets and well dressed people walking down them. The Kurdish government chose to put the money back into the community instead of pilfering it, and it shows if you ask me of my opnion.

As you said Cleitus, we can't put the cart before the horse by speculating that much without all of the information.  It will only insert ability for higher than should be expectations...of a country that can't remember how to run a country on their own without having a dictator or being in war. Yes, they may have the IMF and the UN and the U.S. trying to hold their hands and guide them.

But as the IMF learned a few years back...you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink. Iraq has to WANT to do this on their own. And it's proof that there are still people in power/positions that do not want things to change. Hense why the budget had "extra" stuff put in there that is against the law. These are officials that know better, but they still want to 'get theirs', if you get my drift.

Think about it. Iraq has been under dictator rule or in war since many of us on here were children (or not even born yet). Corruption stepped in as soon as the dictator stepped off (or in this case was pushed off the stair case bannister with a rope around his neck). The corrupt will find ways to stay corrupt and wealthy.

My appologies to you Cleitus, good sir. I didn't mean to take over your post/comment. I probably should put this on a separate post in and of itself. But because some of this backs up needing all the information and why...I sort of felt this was pertinent.

MilitiaMan:  I do remember him saying the numbers and my feeling was it was $60.00 real close, and it may also hit $120.00 again possibly down the road. In a private session on the 12/12/2016 in TC ( team chat) there is a number target of over that lower # and is on track for this month if I recall. Today I bleive I read that the numbers may have been revised. But anything in the $50.00 range to the $65.00 range suits me fine! I hope it suits them too

Catone:  As to the set price for oil, it's supposed to range $60-$65 per OPEC and STAY there until yet another negotiation takes place, IMO. There's more to the set price than the destruction of Daesh, though.  

For instance, the US has contracts in place that allows us to buy it @$30/pb, I believe on demand, throughout the next 10 years as well as set for all "big guy" players. Not only that , but our largest  and most advanced embassy in the world is in Baghdad. Granted, during the Iraqi conflict, the Khazarians were supposed to have control of everything yet now, their poisonous tentacles have been rendered auspiciously ineffective.  IMO, this is our GOD at work for us 99%'rs! All praise to Him, Christ and the Holy Spirit. 

One more random "rumtel"....heard a loooooong time ago that the RV would not happen until the USD and the Euro were at parity. With the Euro at $1.03+\- today, we gotta be getting close.

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Quietstorm:  FRANK, the number you are requesting is, IMO:  43 IQD/barrel of oil. This is what they need to open the budget and implement. Any amount over this helps accomplish the goals of eliminating the deficit of approximately 23 billion IQD in the 2017 budget. 
The budget numbers were calculated at 90 percent of revenue coming from oil sales. We know from our studies that taxes and tariffs will change the percentages as the imports pour in from meeting the reality rate of the RI. As we roll into the RV over the next couple of weeks the buying power will really help these numbers on all the imports.  All IMO.

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MilitiaMan:  One dollar over $42.00 is $14 billion per dollar to the up side for the budget. Sorry but anything at this point over $50 is huge. Imo

Walkingstick:  Brent continues to rise, surpassing 55 dollars a barrel
http://skypressiq.net/23038--55-.html
 
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EHankins:  I'M IN NO WAY AN ECONOMIST NOR DO I UNDERSTAND OIL PRICES GOING UP OR DOWN.  BUT JUST TO PUT INFO AGAINST INFO... COULD IT BE THAT:
OIL REACHES $60 DOLLARS A BARREL TO START AND
THE RV AND THE SHOWING OF THE BUDGET IS REVEALED...YEA!!

OIL PRICES CLIMB AND REACHES $120 PER BARREL

SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE RATE THEN REACHES  ITS CAP TO $3.00 WHATEVER
AND THEN OIL RETREATS AND SETTLES AT $60  

THIS IS A SIMPLE REACH. PUTTING FRANKS INTEL/INFO TOGETHER. JUST SAYING AS FRANK GAVE A 3 OR SO MONTHS TIMING... WE ARE HOPING FOR THE RV RATE SOON ($60 PER BARREL) AND OIL IS CLIMBING CURRENTLY.

THIS MATCHES GOING INTO MARCH 2017 (3 MONTHS AWAY) FOR THE CAPPED PRICE/RATE ($120) ... WE'VE BEEN TOLD TO WAIT 3 MONTHS TO EXCHANGE A LOT OF DINAR MEANING WAIT FOR THE DINAR TO INCREASE IN VALUE... DURING THIS 3 MONTHS OIL PRICES WILL HAVE CLIMBED... THEN IN MARCH THE OIL PRICES RETREAT BACK TO $60.....NO STONES PLEASE.  IMO

Stranger:  (I went back over every Monday CC from Aug.22 until Nov. 26 and two or three Wednesday CC's...I did not go over any other days like Tuesday, etc., and there was no Sept. 5th Monday CC)

Quote:  Frank26: “ remember that checklist….yes we know that….well then do something about this…..change the value of your currency….tell you want IMO Family yeah they increased the price of oil from $35 to $43….exactly how your notes told you back in July at this time frame and here it is.
 
May suggest to you that IMO…whether it be in the next three months or all the way up to three to six months from now….I believe that oil is going to double…..now why would this beast all of a sudden…..who’s doing this….I don’t know….who’s releasing the krackin’ man…..I don’t know…..well then who is increasing the price of oil….a lot of Middle Eastern countries who are involved with oil whose currency needs improvement….and you know who they are because we talked about them already….even Iran is helping out….so the stopping of oil refineries….of oil production means that the price of oil is going to go up….yep supply and demand isn’t it….well why….IMO it is the final stage to give that boost….you see Iraq needs money…..they have no liquidity….we are going to talk about that in depth tonight too…
The price of oil went up for a purpose and it’s serving it right now….they are amending their 2017 budget in accordance with the $43 dollar price of a barrel of oil right now….why….because the IMF told them to….you read the articles….and this is good.
So that is why the article said Abadi’s going to talk to Obama about Mosul and the oil issues…..and if they should double as my opinion is telling you within the next three to six months…..what do you think it is for….for a while…it is to compliment the loans….it is to fire up that budget and launch it the way it should be.
and by the way IMO oil is about to double…..to fuel the loans….to fuel the budget….to help them get across this bridge….but then it will go back down into the $60’s and stay there.
but I like the fact that they are amending their budget…and they are using the calculations with the new oil prices…..the $43/barrel to be put into their budget…and the IMF gave them stipulations
Monday Sept. 12, 2016 CC...
I told you in February of this year … that the barrel of oil will fall about $45.  Look at your notes. 
WS has been giving you articles … IMF is likely to occur stability of OIL in Iraq … $43-$45 a barrel.
By next year, the barrel of oil might be up to $50 or more.
Let’s pretend that the price of oil goes to $43.  Anything under that … they will be in the negative.”
Stranger:  It would appear to me that the last statement underlined is where the IQD should start to move .....anything above $43.... since that is the break even point.  Maybe Frank is looking at the $50 or more by next year. Maybe he is looking at 2 x $43 = $86 since above underlined it says that double it would fire up the budget and launch it the way it should be!
 
Maybe I missed it......maybe it was on one of the other CC or Dessert days inbetween or before Aug. 22nd.  Maybe I don't understand the question.  If anybody else can find the answer have at it...I'm done! lol 

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