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Tuesday, November 1, 2016

MNT GOAT UPDATE, 1 NOV

November 1, 2016 Mnt Goat News Brief
 
Hi Everyone,
 
Emphasis now for us is the progress of retaking Mosul and then moving towards currency reform. In today’s news they are giving us a nice progress report of only after 2 weeks of fighting. So we can see they should be declaring victory sometime very soon over all Mosul area? I firmly believe victory will come before this week is over. We watch and hope. See articles below.
 
The next article is telling us the expense of the fighting ISIS. From the tone of this article and articles from the past we can see that this war on terrorism has been a great financial burden on the economic status of Iraq and a major contributor as to why they have not yet completed the currency reform. They have told us this directly and indirectly in many articles and so here is yet another.  


Then we move on to currency reform - Oh boy! More articles. We know that three articles recently from journalists and economists telling us that the rate or value of the dinar would significantly increase over the coming days. Well where is it then? Have not days already passed? As I have also stated be careful which rate they are talking about. Is it the rate we want (the project to delete the zeros and thus currency reform) or is it just change in the three zero rate i.e. 1300 to 1188? Same old, same old….

I mentioned all this because today out popped a very juicy articles from a main economists in Iraq. He is telling us nothing we already don’t know but telling us now because why? Yes- they are telling us know because there is extreme pressure to complete the currency reform and move to launch the new denominations and thus lead to a real significant increase in value (the one we as investors want). We know they have to do it and they know they have to do it AND do it very soon.

Extreme pressure to move international?
I told you that in the later part of Dec 2015 the IMF and the CBI got together to discuss why the currency reform was not going to take place by Jan 1st 2016. Seems Iraq squeaked by one more time with a good reason why they could not do it. I quote from the article at that time “due to security and political stability we must postpone the project”. So as an acceptance of this agreement Iraq has to agree to allow the CBI to be put them in a trusteeship. What did this mean? Then meant that the IMF now was fully engaged and (basically) was now running the financial and economic policy of the country of Iraq.


The reason? Just too many high level investors waiting for promised loan repayments and not getting them on time.


But as in all negotiations BOTH parties must get something…right?

So the IMF promised a huge long term loan worth billions to be paid in installments over the next 5 years. Remember all this? By the way the first installment HAS NOT YET BEEN PAID due to Iraq not living up its part of the agreement (unlike many believe). This issue remaining is CURRENCY REFORM implementation. Iraq was also given one (1) year from Jan 1st2016 to Jan 1st 2017 to stabilize the security and political situation of Iraq. Have they done it? So we can see the pressure is extreme to complete the last of the promised needed reforms and in particular the currency reform and to begin the process once again to launch the new lower denominations. It is November 1st already and still fighting continues to rid Iraq of ISIS. It is the government of Baghdad target not to turn on the new currency until ISIS is gone. They told us by end of 2016 ISIS would be gone. Obama said it would only take a few days? Really?


Meanwhile behind everyone's back the USA is moving a pre-2011 forces back into Iraq. Why? Is it just to fight ISIS?

Folks this is all due to a new Status of Forces Agreement. What many do not know is that there was pressure exerted on Iraq to agree to these terms or else they would literally flow down the drain without help from USA. So again I ask why all these forces? With 5 very large bases being firmly established for USA use, we can see they are in Iraq to stay for very long time. The new Status of Forces Agreement is for 10 years. That's right 10 years! So what happens if Iraq does not live up to its promises of target Jan 1st 2017 for certain resolution of issues and needed reforms? We can clearly see a more forceful hand being laid out to Iraq should they not chose to conform. Every time Iraq misses a target the hand gets more forceful and they choices get more and more limited. GET IT!

The IMF in return gets the financial and economic reforms it needs to move Iraq forward for the investors at stake and finally to proceed to the global markets (where billions more are to be made). It is imperative these financial backers get paid out.

So at the end of 2015, it was time to ramp up the pressure to stop all the nonsense (corruption) and move towards a new financial and economic era for Iraq. If you have not seen all the actions taken in this direction over just the last year…then I have no hope for you to understand their situation. All the proof is right in front of our noses with the literally hundreds of articles on this topic. I have presented so much of this evidence to you over this past year.

If you still chose not to realize or believe just what is about to happen to the Iraq financial situation then go ahead and stick you head in the sand again. Maybe when you pop it out again we will all have gone to the bank already. 

So if you chose not to believe me then you can read it for yourself……

No Rumors, No Hype, just the FACTS!
 
Economist: edit Mosul would reduce government spending by about $ 30 billion 

Economy News / Baghdad ...
 
Said economic expert on behalf of Antoine, Saturday, that the recovery of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar exchange rate depends on the liberation of Mosul significantly, indicating that the complete liberalization would reduce government spending by about $ 30 billion annually.

Anton said in a press statement, said that "the end of the edit areas of Daesh criminal and re-displaced people to their areas will end the waste of about $ 30 billion between the war effort and disbursement of funds to the displaced."

Antoine said, that "re-displaced people will turn the power of the consumer to a productive force in their regions based on re-idle factories and agriculture as well as to stop the paving funds to support that category."

He added that "those amounts directed to the Economic Development will reflect positively on the dinar exchange rate or the dollar."
 

Iraq opens new frontlines in Mosul operations 
 
Iraqi forces have launched an offensive to advance toward the eastern borders of the city of Mosul from three new axes.
The Joint Operations Command coordinating Iraq’s war on the Takfiri Daesh terrorist group said the elite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) and army troops launched a campaign “to advance toward the left bank of the city of Mosul from three axes.”
The Tigris River flows through Mosul; thus, Iraqis refer to the city’s eastern half as the “left bank” and its western part as the “right bank.”
A senior officer with the CTS said outside the recently-recaptured town of Bartalla that only two villages separate the Iraqi forces from Mosul.
“The target is to retake Bazwaya and Gogjali, the last two villages before Mosul,” he said, adding, “If we manage that, we’ll only be a few hundred meters from Mosul.”
The operations to liberate Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city and Daesh’s self-proclaimed headquarters in the Arab country, have entered their third week.
 
Reuters reported on Monday that the Iraqi forces entered the Karama district east of Mosul, in the first entry since 2014.

Reuters quoted a senior officer as saying, " The Iraqi forces entered the dignity neighborhood of Mosul today."

He added that "this progress is the first incursion inside the city after fighting for two weeks in the surrounding area to expel Daesh. "

and continue the process (coming, Nineveh) for the fifth day in a row, while the security forces began on Monday the progress towards the left coast of the city ofMosul of the three axes.

Iraqi troops entered the Karama district of the Islamic State stronghold of Mosul on Monday, their first advance into the city itself after two weeks of fighting in the surrounding area to dislodge the militants, an officer said.
"They have entered Mosul," General Wissam Araji of the U.S.-trained Counter Terrorism Service told Reuters. "They are fighting now in Hay (disrict) al-Karama."

 
Iraq Monetary System Enhanced Must Embrace the Currency of the New Dinar
 
It is unacceptable to keep the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the US dollar and the currencies of industrialized capitalist countries and neighboring Arab countries is in the thousands. (telling us the must get the IQD in line with neighboring countries currencies if you are to have fair trade with them)
Iraqi dinar paper of the highest categories opens with three zeros paper ... the fifty thousand to 250 dinars a minimum.(telling us the range of the currency 50,000 notes down to 250 notes)
The reality of the dinar current trading segments of confusing disabled economic, commercial and service activities for all. 
For the Iraqi market , the level of the reality of the dinar in the evaluation of trade operations, and a single sentence,is far from accurate price, as well as in the evaluation of real estate , buying and selling and lease, and banking facilities, and any trading assesses currency. (the current rate of the dinar does not reflect accurate values in Iraq and hinders trade operations)
Any deal large amounts of both ends need to fill categories of dinar bags for exchange between the seller and the buyer see scenes of people carrying bags of dinar entrants to the banks or exchange houses or coming out of it.  

And make sure that the reality of the Iraqi dinar and value segments purchasing a catalyst for the crimes of counterfeiting. In countries where equal their exchange rate with the Iraqi currency Rigging the currency, and the counterfeit currency from the devastating effects on inter macroeconomic components of any State. 

And the dinar Iraqi Rolling currently value cashed important role in the rise of goods and services and rising inflation rates. As transactions in the wholesale exclude small - value segments of the dinar. The addition of a few thousand dinars to deal consumer goods, or long -lived, and circulation of marketing to another port and into the hands of consumers, the price of the commodity ballooning number of marketing outlets. The reason is purchasing power of the categories of small dinar that are excluded when evaluating the price of any commodity. 

On 27 August 2015 published (unit of economic studies links for Research and Strategic Studies Center) in his position on the Internet an important article included a reference to "that the Iraqi government may resort to editing dinar any (floated) something that will not solve the financial problem in the country, but would have a disastrous impact on the Iraqi citizen first class. On the other hand, the flotation is the port for speculators in the market to carry out money laundering and manipulation auction currency within the central bank. Floating means to leave a currency floating rising exchange rate and declining reverse proportion to the cases of demand and supply in the market. and taking into account the level of emancipation of the national economy, and the adequacy of its performance, and flexibility of its production apparatus. It is the risk of this process as open the door to money laundering and diversion of corrupt money from the Iraqi dinar to currencies Free to smuggle them out. " the survival of the purchasing power of the Iraqi dinar is weak seesaw at home and abroad are not supported with rampant financial corruption, the dinar conversion into other currencies smuggled abroad cause higher inflation. As to keep large amounts of Iraqi dinar in the market means inflation liquidity which makes it easier out more foreign currency from the country. 

The solution is not to delete zeros or dinar floated, but substituting new Iraqi dinars and to link the rate of exchange in US dollars. (he is saying to launch the new lower denominations)
By issuing  any new Iraqi dinars equivalent to the dollar in the exchange rate of the dinar. Per hundred fils and groups: one dinar, five dinars and ten dinars, and twenty dinars, and fifty dinars, and one hundred dinars. Minting coins from fils and five fils, ten fils fils twenty, and fifty fils, and one hundred fils. Thereby ensuring the stability of the monetary system and the elimination of the imbalance in the current system, which has allowed widespread corruption.  

As has been the abolition of the currency of the former regime after 2003 and replacing rolling dinar now, the current cancellation over a period of time (Is this not the project to delete the zeros? I think this economists is a bit confused since both projects must work in conjunction) and bring in a new dinar. 

It is important that the Iraqi Central Bank assisted by experts from the "Council Federal Reserve," the US central bank in the Iraqi monetary system , the development of the currency enjoys the trust of the exchange of high locally and internationally. (these are agencies the CBI is working with to address the currency issue)

Central banks play a major role in financial instruments control in all countries of the world, the most important tool in the hands of the Central Bank is the monetary policy, it is through an increase in cash flow (Liquidity) can stimulate the economy out of the state of economic crisis, or to help the economy grow by encouraging exports, reducing inflation the currency peg of the Iraqi dinar in US dollars means installing currency dinar price of a fixed exchange rate (fixed exchange-rate) and much of the world this practice is based. There are 17 countries in the world have linked its currency to the US dollar. Including six Arab countries , namely Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar.  


To  link the Iraqi dinar to the dollar has several advantages the most important of the ease of exchange rate policy between the currency of the country and the rest of the world currencies all, where monetary authorities determine the rate specified for the disbursement of the dinar to the dollar, through which the determined relationship management the rest of the dinar currency, goes up for these currencies with the rising dollar and decreases with other hand, the dollar peg helps relatively protect the national economy from inflation as well as help link in the case of oil -producing countries to stabilize their revenues in local currency when the devaluation of the dollar. The stability of the oil price decline, the global value of the dollar does not lead to a decline in oil revenues of Iraq Dinars. 

It will be issuing new Iraqi dinars a way to expose corruption as it requires replacement traded currency is the new currency. At that expose shelve those billions and billions of the current Iraqi dinar and act in the framework of the weak monetary system and politicized the farthest thing from transparency. As can be the Iraqi Central Bank and commercial banks had placed before the deal could expose any abuses , money laundering and smuggling of the popular currency abroad. (How many times must we hear about the abused of the currency. It is time to do something about it)

The 
main reason behind the dollar peg is to maintain stability and increased confidence to deal with, and maintain a fixed exchange rate of the dinar rate would eliminate the so - called parallel market vowels (black market). This reinforces the confidence of investors and the stability of the monetary system and to maintain the purchasing power of consumers with limited income.

 
End of the month the budget law
 
{Baghdad: Euphrates News} favored the parliamentary finance committee member Ahmed Sarhan approve the 2017 end of the month (by Oct 31st so this is old news) the budget law.
 
Said Ahmed told {Euphrates News} Tuesday, that " the 2017 budget was read a first reading and now is in the Finance Committee for the purpose of study and we will start studying the law and prepare a final version of him." 

He added , "and then taking proposals to the House of Representatives to prepare a final version of the law and present it to a vote." 

He continued saying , "There are no comments on the 2017 budget law because it is considered compelling budget because of the war with Daesh , " noting that " the military institutions in need of funding and we believe the end of this month will be voted on. It is noteworthy that, the House of Representatives ended on 24 October last, the first reading for the project next year 's budget law for 2017.
 
 
Articles End
 
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
 
Auf Wiedersehen
Luv to ya all,
Mnt Goat

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