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Sunday, May 15, 2016

KTFA CHAT UPDATE, 15 MAY

KTFA

Aggiedad77: Good Morning Family.......So what is the News is telling me today
The 2017 budget....yes it is quickly coming to that time when budgets must be developed and guessed at....and the crystal ball for Iraq sees not much ado about anything.....nothing to change for 2017 so they say.....

Well my prediction....meaning my opinion....as this year moves forward, I can't help but wonder if they will have much to crow about over new changes to their budget....new headway to be made going forward with realistic and international ramifications to be dealt with for the coming new year.....don't get your celebratory hats on just yet....but keep a sharp eye on this moving ball
 
How interesting that we see Allak talking bonds in Beirut with the head of the Parliamentary committee on Economy and Investments as well as the head of the Iraqi National Business Council


Aggiedad77:  From the photo included it appeared to be an informal meeting, a "side-line" meeting against other important functions going on.....one of those all too important byproducts of a boondoggle.....but Allak lays out a plan to pay Iraqi contractors with these bonds....thru what he calls "government debt bonds"......

Why would a contractor be willing to take a bond based on worthless program rates of a country......perhaps because of good things being promised in the near term that will positively impact the value of said bonds....he speaks to liquidity being hastened for Iraq again while discussing these bonds.....at 1180....not buying that.....will these bonds ever see the light of day.....watch for more on this....telling times
 
How interesting that President Masum is extending the work of Parliament for 15 days.....that must push them at least through the end of this month.....now get your butts in your assigned seats and get some work done....yet still there are rumblings of unrest over the last 2 meetings of Parliament.....some claiming them inadmissible.....well who cares....just get the work done
 
Some say $15 billion others say $16 billion.....don't sweat the small stuff....remember......the IMF wants to cough up $10 billion and maybe the G-7 countries will commit another $5 billion.....well Iraq it's time for you to ante up......put your mouth where the money is.....get the show on the road......put the ball in motion.....get off your keysters and earn your keep......work on the budget.....work on the reforms....it certainly wouldn't hurt to work everyday for a short will.....use that burst of energy to do something worthwhile....it might gain you huge dividends
 
The Kurds......they still want....they still need....money to survive.....nothing new on this front....they just want to cut out their middle man.....Baghdad.....don't see that happening any time soon though....but hey....nothing ventured nothing gained.....will they come back to Parliament.....well Barzani wants them to return....but some want to be stubborn and use their stubbornness as a tool.....give us the money and Article 140 or we won't come back......I'm of the opinion that Baghdad isn't in the mood today to negotiate.....IMO....they will be back.....just watch.
 
Iraq continues to seek serious funding to take care of reconstruction efforts in areas heavily damaged by ISIS or the fighting to remove ISIS.....they lean heavily upon the World Bank for humanitarian assistance......it will probably happen, maybe not as much as they request....unless other countries also pitch in with the reconstruction efforts as well
 
Speaker of Parliament Jubouri met with heads of blocs today and talked about a number of recommendations.....mainly looking for ways to overcome the political crisis they face....this was not a full Parliament session, but instead a meeting of heads....those in charge of blocs.....working to get committees back working and functioning as they should doing worthwhile effort to re-stimulate the political agenda in the right direction....rah...rah....rah....save the nation from further deterioration....well keep in mind that talk is cheap......action speaks louder than all your words.....get on with the show
 
One economic leader is calling for Abadi to replace his economic advisors....I'm assuming that would include Dr. Saleh.....like that is going to happen......what needs to happen is the people in Parliament need to pay attention to these leaders and take appropriate action to get them out of the quagmire they sit in....up....up....get up and push yourself to action....Abadi's economic advisers are not the issue here.....a poorly acting Parliament is the boil on their butt.....lance it

Well....as always....simply an opinion of sorts.....take or leave

Aloha   Randy

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KTFA:

Walkingstick:  Iraq Sees $15 Billion in Aid Through 2017 as IMF Deal Looms

May 15, 2016 — 6:42 AM EDT

    Iraq central bank expects $10 billion from IMF, World Bank

    IMF deal may also unlock $5 billion from G-7 this month
 
 Iraq’s possible loan accord with the International Monetary Fund may unlock at least $15 billion in aid this year and next, central bank chief Ali al-Allaq said, helping OPEC’s second-biggest producer repair finances battered by cheap oil and the war with Islamic State militants.
 
Allaq said in an interview in Beirut he expects Iraq to receive $10 billion in IMF and World Bank assistance. A further $5 billion pledge may come from the Group of Seven meeting in Tokyo this month, he said.
 
“They will discuss supporting Iraq, but that’s linked to how convinced they are of the commitments” the country is undertaking under the IMF accord, he said. “So in total, we will receive $15 billion, possibly more, in 2016 and 2017.”
 
 
IMF officials are holding talks with the government this week in Jordan over a stand-by loan deal. If successful, Iraq will be the first major oil producer in the Middle East to secure a loan accord with the Washington-based lender.
 
Oil producers from Venezuela to Riyadh have slashed spending to counter the plunge in crude prices. For Iraq, the challenge was compounded by a costly war against IS militants, who captured swathes of the country’s territories to set up a so-called Islamic caliphate.
Baghdad Protests
 
The country is also mired in political turmoil. Hundreds of protesters pulled down blast walls and forced their way into Baghdad’s Green Zone -- which houses embassies, the Iraqi parliament and government ministries -- on April 30 to demand more efforts to fight corruption and to protest what they regard as sectarianism in cabinet appointments.
 
Allaq said he has seen “no signs” that the unrest could affect talks with the IMF.
 
Iraq is rated B- at S&P Global Ratings, six levels below investment grade. The yield on the country’s $2.7 billion Eurobonds due in 2028 has declined 33 basis points this year to 10.4 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-15/iraq-sees-15-billion-in-aid-through-2017-as-imf-deal-looms

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Walkingstick:  KRG shares of international loans to Iraq

............The KRG is in dire need of a cash injection.  Despite austerity measures, the KRG is still unable to pay salaries to public employees and pensioners regularly – about 1.4 million people............

Need for cash has incentivized KRG senior officials, most notably Deputy Prime Minister Qubad Talabani to seek international  Talabani has asserted that the KRG should get 17% of the IMF loan. .............


The current crisis demonstrates that rent-seeking and extractive policies cannot sustain economic growth. Without reforming the economic institutions and diversifying the economy, this crisis will be first of many to come. This is where international pressure and advice could help. The time for reform is now, as head of the IMF's mission in Iraq, Christian Josz said"When countries are in financial crisis ... it is a good time for reform when [they] have no choice."
http://www.nrttv.com/en/birura-details.aspx?Jimare=3019

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