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Wednesday, February 17, 2016

KTFA CHAT WITH BACKDOC , THUNDERWAK & MOUNTAINMAN, 17 FEB

KTFA:

BACKDOC:   WITH CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS BECOMING SO DRAMATIC IN WORLD MARKETS, COMPANIES ARE UNABLE TO PREDICT PROFITS DUE TO DECLINING SALES AND MARGIN PRESSURES FROM COMPETITION IN THIS DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT!  (See article below)

WITH COMPANIES CHALLENGED FOR GROWTH AND YEILD, IT SEEMS A PROFIT DEATH SPIRAL IS IN PLAY FOR MANY COMPANIES.

THIS PROCESS TO THE DIGITAL WORLD MAY BE MORE CHALLENGING THAN THE SMARTEST EVEN KNOW!

HOW CAN YOU PLAN ANYTHING WHEN THE BASIS OF VALUE IS NEVER THE SAME? IMPOSSIBLE!

DOC  IMO

Thunderhawk:     Backdoc Alert

Morgan Stanley strategist: Our moves were 'horrendous'

Up is down, down is up, the bull is a bear, the bear is a bull and an economy in recovery is really in recession.

Such is the current state of the markets, according to Morgan Stanley strategists, who see a "Bizarro World" where nothing makes sense and it's getting tougher and tougher to make a buck.

"Everything seems backwards," Adam Parker, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a note to clients. "Sell winners, buy losers, own staples in both up and down markets. Just do the opposite of what makes sense."

The "Bizzaro" reference is familiar to Superman fans for a world where the Man of Steel is really a bad guy and everything else is upside down as well.

But for Morgan Stanley, it's been no comic book but rather stark reality. The firm's investment portfolio registered its worst month in more than five years — 61 months, to be exact — as the stock market got off to one of its worst starts ever this year.

"Our portfolio advice has been pretty horrendous lately," Parker confessed. He added:

For those who follow our portfolio, we did quite well over the five years from 2011-2015. But, our portfolio just had its worst month in 61 months in January,and things have not improved in February.The market is down more than we thought it would be. Our biggest sector bet has been financials (particularly credit cards). As an investor recently said to us at a conference, "I am doing a lot of things, just nothing with confidence." Doing the opposite of what were commended would have been better. Bizarro World. Or at least hopefully not the real world.

Parker and Morgan Stanley, of course, have plenty of company.

Most Wall Street firms had a fair amount of confidence and have been forced to walk back their aggressive forecasts in recent days. Barely a month into 2016 Bank of America Merrill Lunch on Friday cut its full-year S&P 500 forecast from 2,200 to 2,000. Wells Fargo on Tuesday followed by slicing its range from 2,230-2,330 to 2,000-2,100, a 10 percent reduction.

The typical investor portfolio had declined 10.35 percent year to date, according to Openfolio, which compiles the number from results of 60,000 users on its social networking site.

Parker reiterated many of the oft-cited factors working against the market, such as the sharp decline in energy prices, a slowdown in China and worries that the Fed might make a policy mistake.

He added a few: That the health of the U.S. consumer may have been overstated; an investor focus during earnings season on punishing companies that missed estimates rather than rewarding the beats; and fears that the fixed income market and its plunging bond yields are a more accurate forecaster of the road ahead than the optimistic equity market.

Added together, Parker still holds a generally bullish case for the market, stated with a contrarian twist:

The positives are this: No one is articulating a bull case for U.S. equities with conviction. Earnings expectations are potentially low.There is some fiscal stimulus this year (vs. drag previous years). The presidential candidates don't appear to be multiple expanders now, but they will get more centrist and the riffraff will be removed in a few more weeks. Sentiment is low (two weeks ago an investor on a panel we moderated said, "It is a multi-variable world and every variable is negative".) The U.S. probably looks relatively better than other parts of the world. So maybe, the bull case is just that no one can articulate a bull case.

From a strategic standpoint, Parker said the firm is "a bit more nervous than we were last year."

That translates to overweighting health care and utilities, staying underweight energy and cutting discretionary. Morgan Stanley also is cutting its position in American Express and Hewlett-Packard and upping its stake in Apple, among other moves.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/16/morgan-s ... ndous.html

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BACKDOC:  THERE MAY BE MORE TO THIS STORY IN THE FUTURE! (see article below)

TOO BIG TO FAIL MAY BE BROKEN UP INTENTIONALLY TO SPREAD THE TOXIC DEBT AROUND SO THAT IT PREVENTS A COMPLETE SYTEM BREAKDOWN!

WE WILL KEEP OUR EYES ON THIS PROCESS!   DOC    IMO

Blinkster:  That is along the lines of what I'm thinking, BackDoc. How on earth can just breaking up "too big to fail" banks solve any toxic financial problems (ie derivatives) that they already are infected with...unless, somehow, they can muddy the waters a bit by somehow spreading the infection around? How to get unencumbered banks to take on some of this negativity, or at least somehow to be burdened with it (let's share the problem, shall we??) is a big unknown at this time...

Dnari131:  yep and sometimes the dam just breaks in a Blink..

Thunderhawk:    Backdoc Alert

Fed's Kashkari, in first speech, suggests radical Wall St. overhaul

The U.S. Federal Reserve's newest policymaker and a former point man for the government's bailout of the financial industry on Tuesday called on lawmakers to take radical action to rein in banks and protect taxpayers.

In his first speech as head of the Minneapolis Fed, Neel Kashkari, a Goldman Sachs executive before he worked at the U.S. Treasury, urged Congress to consider "bold, transformational" rules including the breaking up of the nation's largest banks to avoid bailouts.

Kashkari indicated that his work at Treasury, where he managed a key part of the banking and auto industry bailouts during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, helped inform his current view.

A set of regulations introduced since the crisis, known as Dodd-Frank, did not go far enough, he said in prepared remarks that straddled the line between the Fed's policymaking remit and political advocacy.

"Now is the right time for Congress to consider going further than Dodd-Frank with bold, transformational solutions to solve this problem once and for all," Kashkari said, arguing that the biggest banks are still too big to fail and continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to the U.S. economy.

He urged lawmakers to consider breaking up large banks into "smaller, less connected, less important entities" and took a swipe at existing rules for winding down failing banks should they run into difficulty amid a weak global economy.

"I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful," Kashkari said, adding that "we won't see the next crisis coming."

He said Congress should consider compelling banks to hold so much capital that they "virtually can't fail," in effect treating them like public utilities.

Speaking after his address, Kashkari said global economic and financial developments would be an "important" input when the Federal Reserve next meets on March 15-16.

He hewed closely to the Fed's January statement, saying he sees moderate growth and a gradual increase in interest rates. He declined to specify how many rate hikes there might be this year.

Kashkari added he does not expect negative rates will be needed in the United States but it was something the central bank could use if deemed necessary.

Financial markets have plunged amid slowing global growth and several central banks are using negative interest rates to avoid deflation and stimulate economic activity.

Kashkari took the helm of the Fed's smallest regional bank last month, two weeks after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time in a decade.

He does not have a vote on the Fed's rate-setting committee until 2017 under its rotation system, but participates in deliberations.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-f ... SKCN0VP1Y4


Mountainman: ???......Is it "TIME" to MOVE the GLOBAL OIL Budgets FORWARD.....As Negotiations UNVEIL and NEW CONTRACTS "Expose"..... IRAQ/IRAN to Re-ENTER the GLOBAL STAGE w/Their "NEW VALUES" ???.....Many other Countries have Agreed to Halt Production as WELL=ALL PUMPS are "PRIMED for TIME"!!!!!!!!.....IMO      Blessings,Mountainman

BACKDOC:  IRAQ HAS THE SPIRIT OF COOPERATION, AND IS READY AND WILLING BUT IRAN IS SEEMS TO BE A HOLD OUT SO NOTHING WILL HAPPEN UNTIL THERE MAY BE SERIOUS PAIN IN THE MARKETS!

WITH A 3 TO 7 DOLLAR EXTRACTION COST , IRAN AND IRAQ HAVE A MAJOR ADVANTAGE OVER OTHER COUNTRIES!     LOWEST EXTRACTION COSTS WIN!    DOC     IMO

Thunderhawk:   Backdoc Alert

Iraq ready to freeze oil output at January levels pending deal - source

Iraq is ready to commit to freezing its oil production at January levels if a deal is reached among OPEC and non-OPEC countries, an Iraqi oil ministry source said on Tuesday.

"Iraq is with any decision that contributes to propping up oil prices," the source said.

Top oil exporters Russia and Saudi Arabia have agreed to freeze output levels but said the deal was contingent on other producers joining in - a major sticking point with Iran absent from the talks and determined to raise production.

The Saudi, Russian, Qatari and Venezuelan oil ministers announced the proposal after a previously undisclosed meeting in Doha. It could become the first joint OPEC and non-OPEC deal in 15 years, aimed at tackling a growing oversupply of crude and helping prices recover from their lowest in over a decade.

Iraq's oil ministry said on Tuesday production hit a record high in January, with crude output from all the country's fields, including those controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), averaging 4.775 million barrels per day (bpd).

It said earlier in the month that production from southern fields, excluding KRG-controlled fields, had dropped to 3.9 million bpd in January from 4.13 million bpd the previous month, itself a record high for the southern fields alone.

The KRG does not disclose production figures for fields in the autonomous northern region and the disputed Kirkuk field, which is operated by Iraq's state-run North Oil Co but has been under Kurdish control since June 2014. It has said exports via pipeline to Turkey rose to an average of 601,811 bpd in January.

Exports via the pipeline increased steadily last year as the Kurds cut allocations to Iraq's state oil marketing firm SOMO from June, ramping up their own independent crude sales in an effort to tackle an acute economic crisis.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi on Monday suggested a deal on sharing oil and revenues between Baghdad and Erbil could be revived if the KRG stopped selling oil independently.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq- ... SKCN0VP1R8



BACKDOC:  ALL WE NEED IS AN EVENT TO TAKE THINGS GLOBALLY OVER THE EDGE!

MAYBE THATS THE PLAN TO PURGE THE OLD AND BRING IN THE NEW, OTHERWISE MAJOR BAILOUTS ARE ABOUT TO BE NEEDED!

I READ ON BLOOMBERG TV TONIGHT THAT DRAHGI FROM THE ECB WANTS TO BAN THE BIG NOTES THAT ARE CIRCULATING! HE CLAIMS ITS DUE TO DRUG MONIES! REALLY? MMMMM

WITH CUSHINGS OKLAHOMA REACHING CAPACITY WE COULD BE JUST DAYS AWAY FROM MAXIMUM CAPACITY! OIL WILL THEN GO INTO FREE FALL TO SPOT PRICE WHICH WILL CREATE A CRISIS MOMENT ON OIL PRICES!

GOING TO 18 DOLLARS MAY BE POSSIBLE!

DOC  IMO

BACKDOC:  THE PANIC IS THAT PEOPLE ARE LOOKING FOR SAFETY FOR THEIR MONEY!

LET ME FIRST TO TELL YOU, WHAT THEY SEEK THEY WILL NOT FIND!

YOU CAN RUN BUT YOU CAN'T HIDE DRIVING THAT FIAT! THE DEFLATION BOOGIE MAN IS COMING AND WINNER TAKES ALL!

YOU CAN'T CATCH ME I'M THE ASSET BACKED GINGERBREAD MAN! HEE HEE

DOC   IMO

Thunderhawk:   Global Bond Rally Near `Panic' Level With Japan Yield Below Zero

Worldwide gains in sovereign bonds sent Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield below zero for the first time and have guided U.S. Treasuries to the best start to a year since 1988 as investors seeking the safest assets gorge on government debt.

Yields on Treasury 10-year notes touched the lowest in a year while those on short-dated German securities slid to a record, as U.S. stocks followed shares in Europe and Asia lower. Volatility in Treasuries reached the highest since September as the U.S. sold $24 billion in three-year debt at the lowest yield in almost two years.

There’s now $7 trillion of government debt with yields below zero globally, with the average yield on the Bank of America Merrill Lynch World Sovereign Bond Index at 1.29 percent, the lowest in data going back to 2005. Futures traders pared the odds the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year to 32 percent before Chair Janet Yellen begins her two-day testimony to Congress on Wednesday.

“Global risk aversion is being driven by underlying concerns about banks, energy prices and equity markets, and that is one part of what is driving Treasury yields lower,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. The other “is genuine expectations of weaker U.S. inflation and economic growth. So Yellen will be huge for the markets this week.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 1.73 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. It touched 1.68 percent, the lowest since February 2015. The 2.25 percent security due in November 2025 was at 104 22/32.

Global Yields

Treasuries have gained about 3.4 percent in 2016, the most in the same period during any year since 1988, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data.

A gauge of demand at Tuesday’s auction was the least since 2009 as the three-year notes sold at a yield of 0.844 percent, the lowest since March 2014. It was the first of three note and bond sales this week totaling $62 billion.

“This is really specific to how low yields are and what is going on in the front end of the yield curve with the Fed outlook,” said Ian Lyngen, a government-bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, referring to Tuesday’s auction demand.

Japan’s 10-year bond yield fell as low as minus 0.035 percent, an unprecedented level for such a maturity in a Group-of-Seven economy. Volatility in the nation’s debt market climbed to the highest since July 2013.

“It’s almost like a panic,” said Hideo Shimomura, the chief fund investor in Tokyo at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management. “The flight to quality is exaggerated.”

A bond-market measure of inflation expectations known as the 10-year break-even rate fell as low as 1.17 percent, the smallest since March 2009. The gauge, which measures the difference between yields on nominal 10-year notes and inflation-protected securities, ended last year at 1.58 percent.

The bond market’s outlook for inflation over the next decade is too sanguine, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Mark Kiesel.
“There is significant value” in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, Kiesel, who co-manages Pimco’s Total Return Fund in Newport Beach, California, said in a Bloomberg Television interview Tuesday.

The Fed has failed to get its preferred gauge of inflation to its 2 percent target since 2012. Yet wages are improving. Hourly earnings rose 2.7 percent in December from a year earlier, the most since 2009, according to the Labor Department.

Rising Volatility

About 29 percent of the debt in the Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index yields less than zero. Switzerland’s 3 percent notes due in 2018 had the lowest yield in the gauge: minus 0.95 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The pace of swings in U.S. government-debt yields has been rising, with normalized volatility on three-month options for 10-year U.S. interest-rate swaps, known as 3m10y swaptions, reaching 95 basis points Tuesday, its highest since July. The gauge of volatility on swap rates mirrors movements in options on Treasury futures. Swap rates serve as benchmarks for investors in many types of debt, including securities backed by mortgages and auto loans.

The Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s MOVE Index, which tracks one-month option projections for the pace of swings in Treasuries maturing in two to 30 years, rose to 89.27 Monday, its highest since September 2015.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -rate-bets

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BACKDOC:  THE MORE WE READ THUNDER THE MORE BELIEVABLE THIS TRADING PARTNER OF IRAQ WILL HAVE A COMPATIBLE CURRENCY!
DOC   IMO

Thunderhawk:  Iran petchem output to hit $22b: Zangeneh

Tehran, Feb 9, IRNA – Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh said the value of country’s petrochemical production will increase to 18 billion dollars by the end of current year (March 20) from 16 billion dollars and is expected to hit 22 billion dollars in the next two years.

Speaking to media on the 37th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, he said the achievement has been attained by launching phases 15, 16, 17, and 18 of South Pars Gas Field which provide ethane feedstock of the petrochemical plants.

Zangeneh also said that production of environment-friendly Euro-IV petrol has increased from 2.5 million liters daily to 24 million liters a day since President Hassan Rouhani took office two years ago.

“By launching Phase I of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery, there will be no need to import of petrol,” he added, “By the end of Sixth Economic Development Plan production will increase to 3.2 million liters.”

He referred to the measures taken by the petroleum ministry to lay gas pipelines for domestic consumption in the eastern Sistatan-Baluchestan province, and also said that smuggling of oil products including gas oil has been reduced drastically after its distribution to trucks based on bill of loading.

http://www3.irna.ir/en/News/81957336/

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BACKDOC:  THIS IS ACTIVATION IN REAL TIME OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE WHICH IS PART OF THE SILK ROAD!

WITH ALL THESE CONTRACTS BEING ACTIVATED NO WONDER THE DOLLAR IS UNDER PRESSURE AND A NEW NARRATIVE WAS NEEDED TO EXPLAIN THIS MASSIVE DE-DOLLARIZATION!

CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT MIGHT BE WAITING FOR THE DOLLAR ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE CHINESE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY ON THE 15TH? MMMMM

GUYS, WE COULD BE ONLY DAYS AWAY FROM THE NEW REALITY!

TIME COULD BE SHORT LIKE MINI ME! HEE HEE    DOC  IMO

Thunderhawk:   ACTIVATION of THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE

Russia to Deliver 5,000 Freight Wagons to Iran

Russian manufacturer Uralvagonzavod will supply Iran with 5,000 freight wagons, marking the start of Russian exports to the country after the removal of anti-Tehran sanctions, a newspaper reported Wednesday.

According to the Kommersant, Russia's state development bank Vnesheconombank (VEB) will provide an 11.2-billion-rubles ($140-million) loan to Uralvagonzavod for the matter.

The cars will be developed on the technical task of the Iranian Railways, the paper reported. The deliveries are expected to begin before the end of 2016.

The agreement reportedly comes as part of the VEB’s plans to subsidize the export contracts for the supply of 15 thousand rail cars of different types to Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Egypt and Cuba.

Iran emerged out of international isolation in January, after it was found in compliance with last summer's nuclear agreement, paving way to the termination of EU, UN and partial US sanctions.

Later in January, Iranian Ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanaei said that Tehran expected that joint Russian-Iranian projects initiated last year will be implemented in 2016. The transport projects discussed between the sides involve large Russian companies and are altogether worth over $25 billion.

https://news.hec.su/item/567480/russia- ... ns-to-iran

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BACKDOC:   THE TRIANGLE IS COMPLETE!

Mountainman:  'll BET the USA will be "IMITATING" these same Objectives of TRADE w/TPP and Other AGREEMENTS down the NEW GLOBAL HIGHWAY....But for NOW The "AIR" has to DEFLATE for A Little bit LONGER.......Then....BAAMM......Here WE GO!!!!!!!!

This You might say is a ........UNDENIABLE/VERIFIABLE.....REALITY!!!!!!!!....IMO....For those WHO aren't WHERE We are......PURE FEAR.....so HELP them as You UNDERSTAND....What's REALLY GOIN ON!!!!

Thunderhawk:   Russia Mulls Trading With China, Iran in National Currencies

Moscow is discussing the possibility of settling payments with Beijing and Tehran in national currencies to intensify agricultural trade, an aide to the head of Russia’s agricultural watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor said.

In November 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow should intensify the use of national currencies in bilateral payments with Iran.

In December 2015, Charge d'Affaires at the Chinese Embassy in Russia Zhang Xiao said that the value of trade between Russia and China could reach the equivalent of $100 billion if the sides used national currencies for mutual payments and modernized the model of bilateral economic cooperation.

"As we know, the [Russian] Finance Ministry is working on creating a scheme [of payments in national currencies]… This issue has been repeatedly discussed at Russian-Chinese negotiations as well as with Iran," Aleksei Alekseenko said an agricultural exhibition in Moscow.

http://siteground243.com/~hiram155/2016 ... urrencies/

Mountainman:  Well People/Countries don't "INVEST" Where there is "NO" Potential for "PROFIT"=THEY did "THEIR" Homework......

I'd say These Guys are HAPPY HAPPY HAPPY.......because They are "INTO" A Bright PROSPEROUS FUTURE....for One Another That is!!!!!!!!

Blessings,Hawk.......You guys are Batting A BILLION RIALS.....Thanks Bro   Mountainman

Thunderhawk:  Iran, Russia sign investment protocol on economic projects

Iranian Deputy Economy Minister Mohammad Khazayee and his Russian counterpart Sergei Storechak in a meeting here on Tuesday signed an investment protocol on joint economic projects between Iran and Russia.

The 15-clause protocol anticipates opening of governmental export credit for economic and industrial projects.

The Iranian and Russian deputy economy ministers underlined the need for the expansion of mutual cooperation in different economic fields and the need for further cooperation and efforts in this regard.

The two sides also exchanged views on financing the industrial projects in the two countries.

http://www3.irna.ir/en/News/81957438/

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Hoot:  might i ask backdoc do you think gold and silver will go down ,so we can buy it at a lower price

BACKDOC:  AS VALUE RISES WITH THE NEW DIGITAL ASSET-BACKED CURRENCIES GOLD WILL GO DOWN TO MEET IT JUST LIKE THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO DO!

OF COURSE THIS IS MY OPINION AND EVERYONE HAS ONE!

NITE HAWK! AND FAMILY!      DOC


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