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DINARESGURUS.BLOGSPOT.COM_________________ _______

Friday, October 16, 2015

S3A CHAT UPDATE, 16 OCT

S3A : 

WE JUST CONFIRMED A CURRENCY EXCHANGE THAT TOOK PLACE IN FLORIDA.
IT WAS A BANKING ERROR BUT THE TRANSACTION DID TAKE PLACE AND THE BANK ACCOUNT IS FUNDED AND THE TRANSACTION HAS NOT BEEN REVERSED YET.
THE EXCHANGE WAS NOT IQD, VND, ZIMBABWE, OR INDONESIA CURRENCY.

MNT. GOAT UPDATE, 16 OCT

Hello Everyone.
This news letter today is mostly about the issues going on now in the Kurdistan Regional government and what the significance is to this ongoing RV saga.
It is a short one today but includes what you need to concentrate on this period.
As I have said many times in previous news letters, when we see repeatedly many articles about a subject matter in a short period of time – PAY ATTENTION. This news is VERY important!
So I decided to dedicate almost entire news letter to this subject matter since I believe it is that important.
Plain and simple- it is pressure, pressure and more pressure on the Abadi government to clean up the corruption and get these reforms implemented.
I know I may sound like a broken record but this is the stage Iraq is in right now. Major resistance to the reforms coming from those who have the most to lose from them (Dowa party, Shia Block, Maliki goons). However, the three presidents are staying firm on the direction they are leading the country. This is the good news of today.
So be prepared to read some major smear campaigns now against  Abadi, Barzani, Allawi, and other prominent officials who are trying to lead the country of Iraq and clean up this mess. Remember that at the end of any long term paradigm there will always be a desperate attempt to maintain status quo and so we see those desperate, those guilty of their crimes, now trying to hang on to their mafia like ways.
This is our challenge for finding these golden nuggets. We must see patterns and remember what we are told in the past news in order to connect it to current events. It is all interconnected and moving in the right direction.
We must learn to ignore this misinformation coming at us from many of these so called “secret” sources, who in fact know very little about the big picture and only hear rumors and then spread them as if gospel truth. Why would you believe them anyhow since they know no more than yourselves?  These are people who have their own agenda either that or they are simply ignorant people.
Today’s News
Today is Friday October 16th and still no RV. Can we expect to see an RV soon?
There are those usual weekly people who are telling you there will be an RV by Oct 20th  now and they are soooooooo sure this is it this time. Really? They make excuses for past alerts and ask you to now believe this is the time. Really? They are now swearing by their reality. Really? Who’s reality? How many times must everyone be fooled by these people until you get wise their warped sense of reality. What planet do they come from? I keep telling everyone these are nothing more than windows of opportunity and much depends on accomplishments to fullfill them.
So is Iraq ready?
They give justification to their intel in that “they are living in the moment”. You do want intel that is in the moment don’t you? They ask? I say just who’s moment of who’s reality is it?
However they will not give you any proof of the pending RV this weekend and will not tell you why they feel that way. They tell you they have been asked not to give details. Really? Do you want to know a secret –
Do you actually have any details? How can you give details when in fact there are none to give? Bank Screens  again?
I have told everyone we will not see an RV until Maliki and his goons are cleaned up out of the government and this process of a new clean govt is underway. The Iraqi government must also be independent of Iranian influence and be able to operate as a truly sovereign nation. There are reforms being implemented and laws to support them. I stand firm on my conviction. This is a conviction and truth not conjecture !
Let me begin today by explaining to you all about  the recent commotion that is going on in the Kurdistan region. There is lots of garbage news also mixed in with the good news so be careful. So what do they have to calm down over, as Abadi it telling the demonstrators.
I will simply state this calamity is coming from only a few using a legal fact that President Masoud Barzani  is continuing on as the president of the region in contrary to the “Three Presidents” law that was recently passed in parliament. They calim this law must apply to all of Iraq if Kurdistan is to be part of Iraq.
They would luv to segment Kudistan from Iraq. Barzani supports unification. These evil and satanic elements in Iraq do not want this leader continuing and they see opportunity to create insurrection and chaos when they can. Remember these elements can NOT survive on love,  peace and security. Instead they need chaos and so anyone who can bring this kindness and calmness (thus ultimate peace) to the region must be bashed and  taken down or these evil elements can not succeed over the Kurdistan region. Can you see the battle going on over good and evil. It is now that obvious.
I simply refuse to give any energy to other negative news coming about as smear campaigns against president Barzani (as we see from the article below from a movement of Kurdish change, headed by Nechirvan Mustafa)  since I know the truth about Barzani. I have been following news on this guy now for 10  years. I have personally had the opportunity to listen to him speak and shake his hand in the past. I know this man.
I know he is a true leader and cares dearly for his Kurd brothers and sisters. Iran and ISIS is threatened most by any nationalism and patriotism that can bring the people of Iraq together as a nation. Barzani brings this to his people and we can compare and see this nationalism is what is missing most in the Baghdad government forces fighting ISIS as compared to the Pershmerga army.
Article Begins
ABADI INFALLIBLE AND STRESS THE IMPORTANCE OF CALMING THE SITUATION IN THE REGION AND TO RESORT TO DIALOGUE TO RESOLVE THE OUTSTANDING DIFFERENCES
> BAGHDAD / Baghdadi News / .. stressed Fuad Masum, President
> of the Republic and the Council of Minister Haider al-Abadi,
> Thursday, on the importance of calming the situation in the
> Kurdistan region and to resort to dialogue and
> constitutional way to resolve outstanding differences.
>
> A statement from al-Abadi Office received / Baghdadi News /,
> copy of which was that “the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi,
> received this afternoon the President Fuad Masum,”
> explaining that “the meeting came to bless the victories
> achieved by the heroine of the armed forces stationed in the
> battlefield of the army and police federal and mobilize
> popular forces and the Peshmerga to the terrorist gangs
> Daash in Baiji, Anbar and the rest of the regions.”
>
> The statement added, “The two sides discussed the latest
> situation in the Kurdistan region,” stressing “the
> importance of calm and inviting political parties to resort
> to dialogue and constitutional and legal methods to resolve
> the outstanding differences between them,” noting that they
> “emphasized the support reforms and continuity and to work
> towards the elimination of corruption and corrupt “.anthy 21
Article Ends
Article Begins
URGENT CHANGE BARZANI CALLS TO LEAVE OFFICE WITH THE END OF THE DICTATORSHIP IN THE REGION 
>
> 10/15/2015
>
> Baghdad  the movement of Kurdish Change, headed by
> Nechirvan Mustafa Kurdistan regional president Massoud
> Barzani called on to give up his position to resolve the
> current political crisis in the region.
>
> The MP for the change Serwa Abdul Wahid told all of Iraq
> where, that “dictatorships in the Arab world ended today and
> that the Kurdistan region is pursuing a democratic approach
> and that Barzani leaves office the presidency” follows. 
Article Ends
Article Begins
KURDISTAN REGION PRESIDENT MASOUD BARZANI RECEIVES US REPUBLICAN DELEGATION
> http://rudaw.net/english/kurdistan/141020155
>
> ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Kurdistan region President
> Masoud Barzani discussed the region’s current political
> stalemate and the position of the Peshmerga on Wednesday
> with a Republican congressional delegation visiting Erbil,
> vowing to bring back political stability for the Kurdistan
> region.
>
> According to a statement issued by Barzani’s office, the
> republican delegates talked about the bravery, confidence
> and durability of the Kurdish Peshmerga and expressed their
> happiness to recent developments in the region.
>
> The US delegates met Barzani in his Erbil office on
> Wednesday. The delegation included US Ambassador to Iraq
> Stuart E. Jones, Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell,
> Senators Tom Cotton, Mike Rounds and Joni Ernst and US House
> Representative Andy Barr.
>
> “We appreciate the US-led coalition striking ISIS, and we
> are happy because air strikes have not inflicted any
> civilian casualties,” said Barzani according to the
> statement. “Our top priority is to stabilize the region,
> protect its elements and remove threats posed by ISIS.”
>
> Economic crisis, human losses and high expenditures due to
> the fight against ISIS “have strained our financial
> capabilities,” added Barzani. “At the end of the day, we
> will overcome all the crises and can solve our political
> stalemates too.”
>
> Kurdistan region Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, former
> Iraq Deputy Prime Minister Roj Nouri, Kurdistan region
> presidency chief-of-staff Fuad Hussein and Falah Mustafa,
> the head of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s foreign
> relations department, accompanied Barzani in the meeting.

>
Article Ends
The 2016 Federal Budget for Iraq
I am presenting a section on this information today since I believe that there are needed laws that are dependent now on the application of the 2016 budget for Iraq. Maybe the Investment law is one of these laws? Do not many of these other laws too need significant funding? another example
National Guard law.
Below we see an article telling us why the budget it being held up and when we can expect to see some progress. So they are telling us that the council of ministers will hold a final meeting on the budget on Sunday in preparation for forwarding it to parliament for adoption. We can expect to see the 2016 budget bill having a first reading in parliament very soon and maybe a final vote sometime in early November.
Now I want to emphasis something that is very important.
Remember back in late 2014 when all these intel “gurus” talked about this budget and how it was going to get us the RV. They said that when and if they opened the budget they must first RV. Really? They needed to tie some event to the RV so this one they chose at this time.
Even as far as mid 2015 they still refused to believe that Iraq opened the budget, yet Iraq had been spending money and we witnessed them paying salaries, pensions, Pershmerga,  etc.. So where in hell did all this money come from? These gurus still persisted and told us they had not in fact opened the budget. Folks do you know just how ridiculous this all was back then? Do we have to experience this saga again now with the 2016 budget or are we going to get real this time?
So I say to all these so called intel “gurus” – learn what is truly happening in Iraq. HOW CAN IRAQ PAY THEIR BILLS AND OPERATE WITHOUT OPENING AND SPENDIING THEIR BUDGET? Why do you think they are doing a budget if not to spend it?
So be aware everyone that once again you will hear this that the RV is in the 2016 budget.
Believe me I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt that there is no dependence on the 2015 nor on the 2016 budget to RV.
Once again I will say the RV is a byproduct of the reforms, the fighting ISIS and other issues needed for Iraq to standalone and run itself as a viable democratic government. When there is enough stability the RV will simply pop out one day in the middle of the day or night and all will be surprised.
There will be some warning and we will hear some news from the CBI way ahead of time. Those that know what they are looking for will hear the CBI message and be aware of the impending RV. So today we have not heard of any news from the CBI and there are many, many issue still to be resolved in Iraq prior to any RV taking place. So relax and learn instead to spend your time reading and learning about the issues facing Iraq.
Having said this I am beginning to move in the direction again that the CBI has already told up when to look for the RV. They have told us last spring that that the “project to delete the zeroes” will be postponed until January early 2016.
But we refuse to believe it and bash anyone who brings it up. As we get closer to the date many will come onboard but that is always applying the term “seeing is believing”. These are those that have little faith and back- bone in general. They are spineless people. They are leaches. They do not take the time read the articles and have no idea what is going on in Iraq. They are lazy people. Instead they lead you dinarians on a wild goose over and over again on simple events that they inaccurately tie to an RV. Why would you even listen to them over and over again?
The National Reconciliation Conference is not even scheduled until December. So why would you think there would be any chance of an RV until at least this period. They have pushed this meeting out to this period in the HOPE of meeting this target date since they believe it would take AT LEAST until this timeframe so see the stability that is needed for currency reform. Does January 2016 sound more practical now?
Article Begins
ABADI EMPHASIZES THE NEED FOR THE FINANCIAL BUDGET AND DETAILS ACCURACY AND REALISM ITEMS
> Twilight News / confirmed Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi,
> the need for the financial budget for 2016, accurate and
> realistic terms.
>
> This came during a crisis cell was held on Wednesday a
> meeting chaired by Abadi has been allocated to conduct a
> comprehensive review of the law of the general budget for
> 2016 in preparation for placing on the extraordinary meeting
> of the Council of Ministers which will be held next Sunday.
>
> The statement said al-Abbadi stressed the need for the
> financial budget and details of the terms of accuracy and
> realism and take into account the fiscal revenue projected
> for 2016 and secure the salaries and wages of civil servants
> and the armed and security forces and the popular crowd and
> retirees.
>
> Abadi pointed to the need to secure the necessary funds to
> cover the paragraphs on welfare of all kinds so as to
> maintain the standard of living of the categories covered by
> social welfare and poor classes of society in addition to
> the importance of armament to face Daash gangs and
> allocations peasants.
Article Ends

Article Begins
IMF’S MIDDLE EAST REGIONAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CENTER CONCLUDES REGIONAL WORKSHOP ON BUDGET PREPARATION
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2015/pr15472.htm
Press Release No. 15/472
October 15, 2015
> The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s Middle East
> Regional Technical Assistance Center (METAC) held a Regional
> Workshop on budget preparation at the Dead Sea, Jordan from
> October 12–15, 2015. It was attended by senior
> representatives of Finance and Planning Ministries from the
> Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In total, 23
> delegates from Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait,
> Lebanon, Oman, Sudan, Tunisia and the West Bank and Gaza
> attended the workshop.
>
> The workshop focused on the techniques and processes
> required for successful preparation of annual and
> medium-term budgets in the context of governments’ fiscal
> policies and financial constraints. It also served as a
> platform for sharing the participating countries’
> experience of improving public sector efficiency and
> effectiveness, and for discussion of potential alternatives
> to overcome fiscal pressures.
>
> A highly participative approach was adopted, based on
> breakout group discussions and presentations in plenary
> sessions. Participants were encouraged to share their
> experiences and ideas, with a view to establishing a basis
> for continued knowledge sharing throughout the region.
>
> During the workshop, participants discussed the challenges
> their countries face in preparing medium-term macroeconomic
> and fiscal forecasts, formulating credible budgets, and
> improving the efficiency and effectiveness of public
> spending. Critical issues and risks—technical,
> institutional and political—that still need to be
> addressed were also discussed.
Article Ends
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,
Mnt Goat

TNT CHAT UPDATE, 16 OCT

TNT:
SpiritWalker2012 : Sometimes when they put a date out there, things have already been done!
ALREADY BLESSED : SPIRITWALKIER….SMART COOKIE

GeorgiaPeach :
 They usually do it before that date!!!!


ALREADY BLESSED : 
 BINGO GEORGIA PEACH


Teir2wannabe: 
 If someone would have told me 5 yrs ago before I got on this roller coaster that we wouldn’t have a chance of seeing this before: 1. Chinese currency becomes a reserve currency, on par w/ USD; 2. Russia would control the ME and; 3. The Mets and Cubs would play for the NLCS, I would have asked what they were smoking and never spent a penny on that funny looking, smelly Iraqi Deenar… :)
************
Rightway:  EXCITING NEWS from a small town bank
Sign on my small hometown bank today ” Bank will close at 4 pm Oct 21st for training on upcoming conversion  ”
This is a small bank in a town of 4000 and part of a local chain of 30 small regional banks.
I am SO Excited
************
Lealoha:  Free Energy, Free Food, Free Medicine, Free Shelter!!!! This is amazing!! Please people, please watch ….what we’ve all been waiting for!!
Red: The inventor of this free electrical machine tried to introduce it here in the United States he was threatened with prison term so he left the country he finally found a country that would open the invention with wide open arms and a heart to bless people and not squeeze the last penny out of their wallets
*****
Iko Ward:  So Forex is now doing what we were looking for, increasing the rate on a daily basis. CBI won’t do anything until after the RV and Forex may even give out false info.
Iko Ward : This is where we all have to stay calm and focused. The good news is we are among the first to exchange; the bad news is there may be a bit if a vacuum the first few days except for what the banks are telling us. Remember…you have time to make decision.
Remember, the current rates are still a God send. Greed can get you in trouble real fast.

TotallyBlessed:
 Vacuum? First few days of our exchanged but before Forex shows anything significant? Or am I in a vacuum of understanding? LOL Help Iko?

Iko Ward:
 Forex is a private institution, created by big clients to service their needs, not ours. They can lie all the way to the moon if they want. Or they can play it straight, or play straight one hour and lie the next. This is why you want several sources of intel.
TotallyBlesssed: Got it. Thanks Iko I know just enough to get in trouble so we are going with International rates but I’m not bringing it all at once. They can wait another day or two if they’re backed up w apptsl.

NurseGinger:
  It takes extraordinary people to recognize the following: Change Happens, Anticipate Change, Get Ready For Monitored Change, Adapt To Change Quickly, The Quicker You Let Go Of Old Change happens, Enjoy Change! Savor The Adventure Be Ready To Change Quickly And Enjoy ABOVE ALL REMAIN GROUNDED AND FOCUSED

TennWolfman:
 The RV train is already at the station–We are just waiting for it to stop so we all can get on board and start out on our new journey of living our lives to the fullest and paying it forward as we go. Oh happy day

TNT :Tony CC Cliff Notes, Friday, Oct 16, 2015, 16 OCT

Highlights of Tony's conference call.  Updated as the call progresses.

Tony:  Nothing has changed from Wednesday. Somewhere along the way this weekend hopefully our whole lives will change, get permanent notification of day and time this is going to happen. Right now it is positive, positive, positive. 

CURRENT WINDOW:   Tony:  Could happen any moment, any time.  Banks being told by the 20th . . .by the 20th they expect a crowd of people.  Don't be surprised if it's before then.  Absolutely, don't be surprised.  They are being told no later than the 20th.
IRAQ:   Tony:  In Iraq they are promoting, "PROMOTING," the use of lower denoms and be over with
  • TV              Mosques 
INTERNATIONAL:    
  • Rates:  saying (on screens?)  rate will be available between 20th -25th. Tony:  Banks have had that date for the last two weeks.  Rates higher than in the past.        

UNITED STATES:     Some individuals . . . paid astronomical sums of money.  Tony:  Widespread across the US but nothing to do with groups.  No groups are getting paid.  No SKR's given out.   
  • Purchase Chinese currency?  Check with currency dealers and banks.  Tony said it was a banker who suggested to him to buy Chinese currency but Tony indicated he was not interested.
  • Banks:   Tony:  HSBC is global and involved in the process.  They have already released the rate in New York, New Jersey.  Already exchanged Afghani . . .
  • Taxes:  be prepared to hold back 50% so you won't be surprised at tax time. 
  • Moving money.  Cashiers check can be for any amount.  No limit on them.  Advised to keep wire transfers under $500,000 and they will be slower as they will be tracked.
EXCHANGING:  Three different plans for the US Exchange Roll out.  Tony has not received word of any plan has been decided on yet.

CLOSING STATEMENTS:

PAM:  WARNING:  The mods were talking about Skype room and said diversity is your best insurance. Make sure you diversify.  Tony and DC explained to you there will be a lot of sites open that will stay open when over and will want to guide you.  Tell you how to spend your money. Some you can trust and some of the people they have on there they maybe trust or not be. Warn you to be careful. Lot of scalleywags out there and waiting for you to be gazillionaires and worked too hard to lose it that quickly. Be careful!!!  There will be sites still open after the RV/Exchange.  They are just waiting for you guys to be gazillionaires. . . to pounce on you.  Be careful.  Don't trust anyone you meet on the internet.  Take your time.  Be careful.
RAY:  (was teaching a seminar today)

TONY:  There will be a whole lot of confusion (following RV).  (Paymasters giving excuses why not paying or paying slowly) You'll see a lot of things.  Bulls__t!!!  Be aware.  Be smart.  Whole lot of people out there to take this money away from you. . . They know you are looking to pay it forward. . . Guys out there creating foundations (to take it away from you)
. . . dates to be ready.  People got memos telling them and tell you this. One memo not supposed to tell you about but the other one 20-25th and there on screen.   But for those of you super smart and been in this with us typically when we tell you something or iraq puts out something especially with a date attached you know what usually happens.  Think about it.  Talk about it.  Discuss it in the Forum.  Go back through history.   (I missed this last part. The darn door bell rang.  I’ll catch it up when the verbatim notes come out – Sunny)

Adepts Notes: Tony:  I hope this is the last call, although if we have to be here on Monday, we will be.  After this announcement is made, a lot of people will get excuses about how they didn’t get there money:  the paymaster is sick, they can only move a million at a time, whatever.  A lot of people will make money out of selling your contact information to those who want your money, for investment or otherwise.  Whether you take action as individuals or as a group, have a plan!  You will see all kind of attempts to get your money, and you need to know when it’s BS or people trying to make money off you.  We have tried to give you information and insight to look past what sounds good and see who is scamming you.  Be aware, be smart;  there are people out there who will try to take this blessing away from you. They had the same opportunity as you did, but they would rather sit back and wait until you get your money and take it off you.  They know you want to pay it forward, and there are people setting up foundations to take your money, and some will be the same crooks who have got you involved in other deals, and now they are setting up foundations to change the world!

Pam and I are setting up Keisha’s Kids, and all the money will go to the projects.  When a foundation approaches you, see how much goes to the programs instead of admin or to buy houses and planes for the directors. 
The good news is that right on the bank screen there is a memo saying that these rates are kicking in 20-25. October. But you know what usually happens when they put a date to something, especially with Iraq.  Go back through the history.  With that, enjoy your weekend – it’s going to be super-fantastic.  I’ll talk to you later… goodbye.

TNT CC NOTES, 16 OCT

TNT Call notes 16-October-2015

Pam:  There is so much going on right now, especially in Iraq.  We’ve all been told about the 20th, and we don’t agree with all the ‘sky is falling’, that Doomsday stuff is not for us, but there is a lot going on and we are thankful.
Tony:  Good morning, TNT!  Today is Friday, October 16, 2015.  I never EVER thought we would still be here today, but it means that things are going great and this weekend our lives will change – we will get positive information of the time and date this is happening.  It could still be at any time.  It is still scheduled, and the banks have been told to expect a crowd of people by the 20th.  In Iraq, the people are promoting the 20th to use the lower denominations.  The process is being pushed through at much lower levels, and things cleared out of the way for what I hope is irreversible motion.  The best date we are hearing is the 20th – that is what’s out there – but don’t be surprised if it’s before then. They are definitely being told “by the 20th”, yesterday evening and this morning in Iraq.  We have heard that date for the last 2-3 weeks.
The currency rates are showing as 20th through the 25th, but it doesn’t matter as the 20th is the date that’s all over the Internet, so it’s not like it’s a secret.  So let’s get ready for it, and have a great weekend. The rates are still there, and higher than we have mentioned to you in the past.  I’m not going to say how much higher, because some still get upset, thinking I give you too much information.  I’m going to enjoy the weekend with everyone.
Pam is being the tyrant she is, and Ray is not here;  nor is our verbatim transcriber.  So we are just doing a short call today.
707 caller:  Some people in my group have been asking questions about the zim they have purchased as ‘collector’s items’ from various vendors.  I understand that the dealers are not allowed to reveal the value…
Tony:  I think the dealers just don’t know.  They are going on the same information we are working from, so if they have to sell them as collectors’ items, that’s how they sell them..  If they are worthless and collectors’ items, well, I have the same ones you have.
Caller:  A friend who is a currency traders buys her from a dealer, too;  her sources count them through a Delarue machine, and they are guaranteed as authentic.
Tony: So if the zim doesn’t happen, they are at least covered.  They don’t show it as a currency now, but my Treasury contact told me which ones to buy… I don’t have any word of the currency expiring.
404 caller:  Earlier you said the rates are being shown on the bank screens as valid from 20th to 25th.  Can you explain that?
Tony:  They have a rate on their screen, not holding or pending, but showing them as being released on those dates.  It is not saying the rate is being held at that rate for five days, just that it will be released sometime on those dates.
Caller;  I’ve heard there is a freeze on some SKRs;   when might that be lifted?
Tony:  They have been frozen for two years, so that is nothing new.  NO groups are being paid, no SKRs are being paid out. They have paid a few individuals an astronomical number of dollars, spread across the USA, but that is nothing to do with groups.  They have been calling a few people in, and that’s okay.  I think that when some people find out what others are exchanging at, there will be some lawsuits.
Caller:  Hopefully this is our weekend!  [Appreciation]  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
702 caller:  You mentioned the Chinese currency – where do you buy that?  The same places you bought your dinar?
Tony:  I’m sure there are a bunch of places you can get it:  some banks, Travelex, and other currency dealers in your local area.
617 caller:  Did Abadi make the speech he was supposed to make?
Tony:  Apparently not, or I wouldn’t be on this call.
Caller:  [Appreciation]  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
831 caller:  So we are still on track for this weekend?
Tony:  Yes, we are.
Caller:  [Appreciation]  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!  I look forward to having that Cuban with you.
252 caller:   On the Chinese currency, I looked into buying some from Sun Trust Bank in my area.  Is that a good place to buy from?
Tony:  A guy at my bank said, “Hey, you should be getting this” meaning the renminbi or yuan.  They are all going to change.  Personally, I have enough of the currencies I think will go first.  If the bank doesn’t have yuan, buy more dinar, dong, zim, rupiah…
559 caller:  [Appreciation]  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!  I’ve been going through my list and trying to keep current.  Originally they allowed you to pull out $10,000, and now it’s dropped to $7,000, I think.  Anything else on taxes?  Is there any place to insure accounts over $250,000, such as Abbot Downing, Lloyds, etc.?
Tony:  There is still no definitive word on taxes, so set aside 50% until we know.  We know Abbot Downing looks after the ultra-rich, so ask them about higher value accounts. Lloyds of London has stuff they will offer you, once you meet with your WM and advisors outside of the bank.  You never want only one source helping you....
Caller:  I know I’m not supposed to transfer more than 500K…
Tony:  You can transfer as much as you like from one account to another;  it’s only WIRE transfers they will want to track in the first 30 days.  They prefer cashiers’ checks.
301 caller:  Why does the release of fils (coins) signify the release of a higher rate?
Tony:  Right now, the official rate is 1166 dinar to the dollar.  If the dinar is worth less than a penny, why would you need coins at all?  So if they are issuing coins, the rate must be more than a dollar.  The fils and lower denominations cannot come into existence until the rate has changed.
647 caller:  It’s your friend from Canada.  There’s very little intel about procedures in Canada.  There is some word of 800 numbers being released here.  We’ve heard that TD and HSBC will do exchanges;  which would be better for contract rates?
Tony:  If I were in Canada, I’d be going to HSBC, because of their relationship with China.  I also know that HSBC has exchanged some Afghani and rupiah in New York and New Jersey to people who were in the right place at the right time.  So that’s where I’d go.
Caller:  I am connected to your Twitter account because I get the call tweets every time.  Will you send out the 800 numbers for Canada as well as the US?
Tony:  I don’t know.  We were discussing this again this morning, and they are still talking about three different ways:  no information and let you guys figure it out, post the 800 numbers (but probably not a Canadian number), or a 15-minute call saying goodbye.  If they don’t publish an 800 number for Canada, call the US number and ask where to exchange in Canada!
Pam:  First, the guys in the Skype room were just saying that ‘diversity is the best insurance’.  There will be a lot of sites that open once this is released, trying to tell you how to invest your money.  Be careful:  there are a lot of scallywags and scoundrels out there, just waiting for you to be gazillionaires. Take your time and be careful.
Tony:  I hope this is the last call, although if we have to be here on Monday, we will be.  After this announcement is made, a lot of people will get excuses about how they didn’t get there money:  the paymaster is sick, they can only move a million at a time, whatever.  A lot of people will make money out of selling your contact information to those who want your money, for investment or otherwise.  Whether you take action as individuals or as a group, have a plan!  You will see all kind of attempts to get your money, and you need to know when it’s BS or people trying to make money off you.  We have tried to give you information and insight to look past what sounds good and see who is scamming you.  Be aware, be smart;  there are people out there who will try to take this blessing away from you. They had the same opportunity as you did, but they would rather sit back and wait until you get your money and take it off you.  They know you want to pay it forward, and there are people setting up foundations to take your money, and some will be the same crooks who have got you involved in other deals, and now they are setting up foundations to change the world!
Pam and I are setting up Keisha’s Kids, and all the money will go to the projects.  When a foundation approaches you, see how much goes to the programs instead of admin or to buy houses and planes for the directors. 
The good news is that right on the bank screen there is a memo saying that these rates are kicking in 20-25. October. But you know what usually happens when they put a date to something, especially with Iraq.  Go back through the history.  With that, enjoy your weekend – it’s going to be super-fantastic.  I’ll talk to you later… goodbye.

TNT :UPS Intel, 16 OCT

    • Webzz said
      09:53 AM Oct 16, 2015
    So I ordered some YAUN from travelex and when the UPS guy rang my bell for a signature he asked what was in the package? Medicine?  I told him it was foreign currency.  He said mine was the 5th delivery he made today from travelex and that it was unusual, so looks like everyone is stocking up for the RV!

DEALER OF IRAQI DINAR IN PUERTO RICO UPDATE, 16 OCT

Many things going over there ... !! No flights, there are many calls, people buying dinars like crazy, and people buying dongs about to cobrarrrrrrrrr !!! And criminals nervous ... Interesting .... God is Good.

Spanish :

Que muchasss cosas pasando por alli...!! Hay vuelos, hay muchas llamadas, hay gente comprando dinares como loco, comprando dongs y gente apunto de cobrarrrrrrrrr!!! Y malhechores nerviosos... Interesante.... God is Good.

KTFA CHAT UPDATE, 16 OCT

TFA:

Aggiedad77:
  Frank.....so what is next week going to be like

Each dessert this week has been better than the last

I know you don't have control of the MR....but a dull week.....I'm not seeing it yet

There continue to be surprises coming at us from the most unexpected places

If I could be jumping around excitedly right now I would be    Aloha    Randy
....
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Walkingstick:  First Published: 2015-10-15

Arrest warrants for senior Iraqi officials on corruption charges excludes al-Maliki
Iraqi Integrity Commission issued instructions to arrest a number of managers in the Municipality of Baghdad and bringing in the ministers of the current and former electricity for questioning.

Middle East Online

Iraqis rising up on corruption

BAGHDAD - in striking evolution could have repercussions in the coming days, the head of the Iraqi Commission on Public Integrity Hassan al-Yassiri announced Thursday, the issuance of warrants of arrest of senior former officials on charges of financial and administrative corruption and waste of public money.

Yasiri said in a statement, it said that the investigation of the Integrity Commission judges have issued arrest warrants against a number of general managers in the secretariat of Baghdad and the Ministry of Electricity orders.

President of the Commission pointed out that among those who orders against them, the former Mayor of Baghdad, Naim al-Kaabi issued Abaob and former Secretary Abdul Hussain Morshedi.

He added that the investigating judge also issued an order to bring the investigation of corruption against the current Minister of Electricity Qassim Fahdawi files, while issued an arrest warrant against former Minister of Electricity Karim Aftan al-Jumaili, also referring to the decision of a travel ban against those who were arrested, bringing in orders.

And linked to the Integrity Commission, which was founded in 2004 in parliament and has the judicial powers such as the issuance of an arrest warrant, accusing orders and has a component device of the judges in charge of the investigation into the files of corruption and with the accused, for this body it is not interested in sentencing and only the investigating judges to transfer the accused to the competent courts.

The Integrity Commission announced in August / August on the transfer of two thousand and 171 senior official, including 13 ministers and those who are Badrjtah to misdemeanor courts, corruption, revealing that the ministers of defense, trade, electricity, transportation of ex-wanted between judicial authorities.

Integrity Committee did not mention former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Included ordered officials in the previous government.

Iraqi politicians and international reports and confirms that corruption reached its peak during the reign of al-Maliki and that the reforms launched by his successor, Haider al-Abadi is like walking in a minefield given the deep-rooted nature of corruption on the one hand and a collision with influential political figures and religious parties influential.

Analysts said the committee good integrity decisions, but they may face a wave of criticism since they did not talk and did not issue arrest warrants for senior officials and interrogated Although the audits conducted by the Iraqi government authorities confirm that many officials in the previous government are directly involved and indirectly in corruption cases financial and administrative.

Abadi reforms and launched an anti-corruption package approved by the Iraqi Council of Representatives unanimously on August 11 / August, in a move that seriously stay connected with their implementation has faced many obstacles.

The Cabinet after weeks of protests and approved the claim religious authority Ali Sistani, the Shiite head of government to be more aggressive in the face of corruption, reform proposals requires a constitutional amendment, some, such as removing a major positions of deputies of the Republic and the government.

Among the most prominent of those reforms, the abolition of the posts of Vice President and the Prime Minister and serves as the Presidency on behalf of three of the most prominent politicians are Nuri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi and Osama Najafi. It also includes the reduction of "partisan and sectarian quotas" in senior positions, and activate the anti-corruption, control and accounting procedures.

http://www.middle-east-online.com/?id=209391

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Walkingstick:  Arrest warrants against the oil minister Thamer Ghadhban and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labour and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and others
Doors Almarjgah news.

The issuance of arrest warrants against 151 Iraqi officials on corruption charges, including former oil minister Thamer Abbas Ghadban and Director General of the Ministry of Oil and Waza Mahmoud Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labour Idris Hadi Saleh, director general of the reform Saad glorious morning and the pavilion financial agent

Said Talal Zobaie that the arrest warrant issued against Naim Abaob on charges of corruption, a draft military channel

And that the arrest warrants against the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Planning and Minister of Electricity Karim Wahid

And that the arrest warrants were issued two days Hussein Tahan, governor of Baghdad by the former

And the director of the Red Crescent Said Ismail Hakki satisfaction and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Industry Mackie Ajil all three issues and former minister of financial resources Muhannad Salman Alwan Jassim Ali, Director General of the Ministry of Defense Department contracts

He discovered corruption loans of up to 80 billion without guarantees will be issued arrest warrants against them

http://abwaabiq.com/content.php?id=2993
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Walkingstick:  Samir Abbas Alnasiri *: monetary policies in Iraq and proposals for the next phase applications
- PUBLISHED IN 10/15/2015

Iraqi Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy in Iraq and its applications and on the developmental role that must be played by Kmussh sovereign sober in the design and application of monetary policy during the period of 2004 the date of the law until the present time through all stages of completion and the failure experienced by who tried through what has been accomplished that creates the kind of economic stability in spite of the lack of security and political stability and the difficulties and the objective and subjective conditions that accompany his work where there was a tangle of plans and policies.

But then it became a monetary policy features and trends, strategies and clear the basis of which a reduction of hyperinflation, which had a negative impact clear to all economic life milestones since the blockade imposed on Iraq in 1991 and as a result of what they suffered Iraq wars for many disorders has become inflation mounts high paces record until he reached the highest rates It deteriorated all the productive sectors and has become a very big gap between the wages and salaries and high prices in the light of the many changes experienced by the Iraqi economy post-2003, and the issuance of the Iraqi Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004,

under which the Board of the Central Bank of Iraq administration took issue regulations, instructions, and select the mechanisms and tools and applications monetary policy in Iraq in order to achieve the central objectives of basic ones hyperinflation lowering and raising the purchasing value of the Iraqi dinar and maintain a balanced rates compared with foreign currencies, particularly the US dollar in addition to the formation of reserves of foreign currency and management as the body responsible for issuing currency and protect its value at home and abroad.

Add to that the Central Bank of Iraq aims and according to the Bakannouna to the pursuit of stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and promote the preservation of a stable financial system competitive and based on the market and the promotion of economic stability and sustainable growth and prosperity in Iraq ...

The functions of the Central Bank of Iraq in achieving the above objectives are as follows:
Formulation and implementation of monetary policy, including exchange rate policy
Retention and management of all foreign reserves
Management of government reserves of gold
Issuance and management of the Iraqi currency
Monitoring and enhancing the safety and efficiency of payment systems
Awalajazac issuing licenses for banks and the regulation and control of banks as defined in the Banking Act No. 94 of 2004.

The objectives of monetary policy
The objectives of monetary policy to achieve economic growth and stability and to reduce unemployment and stabilize the prices of goods and services and the stability of exchange rates and improve the balance of payments and to achieve these goals through a direct and indirect monetary policy instruments

They can identify the most important of these goals FOLLOWS:

Reduction of inflation
The case rooted in inflationary phenomenon which Eshrha inflation mainly caused by aggregate demand pressures led inevitably to an imbalance exchange market in terms of the desire of the public to keep cash balances over the supply of those stocks, reflecting the increase in money circulation speed and an increase in inflationary expectations at the same time as has become the latest source of continued inflationary phenomenon President so it was the goal of reducing hyperinflation of the primary purposes of monetary politicians

Maintain a cash balance of the market
That the work to strengthen the Iraqi dinar exchange rate as well as the face of the phenomenon of cash substitution and the requirements of the availability of a tight monetary policy of a two-way exchange rate and interest rate, which will affect the money market balance.

Retention and management of foreign reserves (foreign exchange and gold)
Of the basic tasks of the Central Bank of Iraq is to build foreign cash reserve in order to promote and cover the Iraqi dinar exchange rate stability and the creation of valuable money market, one of the successful application of monetary policy indicators.

Currency reform management system
The management of the currency system to adopt any shift from a small amount of currency chasing a large amount of the price of services and reflects the stability, growth and prosperity stage and on this basis, the proposed project to delete the zeros of the Iraqi dinar launches of good monetary system management considerations and the shift of monetary mass flaccid to block easy cash trading and creativity

Monetary policy tools
Is the monetary policy of the most prominent aimed at achieving economic stability and exchange-rate peg rates in excess of the national economy stronger and more effective to face the economic challenges as the achievement of foreign exchange reserves currently stands at up to $ 61 billion and install the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar is considered to be necessary and appropriate economic policies and the auctions of foreign currency by the Central Bank of Iraq held a positive role in maintaining the appropriate level of the exchange rate and install a negative role in the lack of control over foreign currency, which led to the escape of a portion of what is sold in individuals currency abroad and formally and without control, hurting the Iraqi economy has taken CBI several steps to expand the list of tools available to monetary policy and to cover the required reserves to include government deposits and the granting of facilities on deposits that mature in a short period in order to allow banks to manage the development of liquidity way more effective and can identify the most important what has been achieved monetary policy tools in the past (2004 - 2015 ) As follows :

First: the relative stability of exchange rates
The current structural stability of the rates of exchange rate despite the ups and downs to the current rates several times during 2014 and 2015, has been granted an opportunity for the Iraqi economy to rebuild and relative growth despite the fact that prices have not stabilized completely and due in part to the lack of stability and the nature of the security conditions and politics and falling global oil prices and the weakness of economic planning through which Iraq was able policy adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq started to maintain a relatively balanced rate of the Iraqi dinar rate.

Second, monetary policy hardline
The tight monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq as part of a strategy to achieve the goal of stability has shown that the financial system Almdolr taking tends to decline because of the launch of the freedom of foreign exchange in accordance with the Principles and guidelines have been modified several times, but no full Aalsatrh on the cash trading market because of speculation in the parallel market and the weakness of mechanisms and policies adopted and loss of coordination between the competent episodes in Iraq's economic and appliances.

Third: the stability of the financial system
Monetary policy has embarked on the establishment of an effective framework for action works towards strengthening confidence in the local currency to create a strong and deep conditions the stability of the financial system in any transfer of the impact of operational objectives for monetary policy to achieve an immediate objective of the policy itself

Fourth: the reduction of inflationary phenomenon
Reflects the gradual decline in inflationary phenomenon positive effects of the policy of the Central Bank of Iraq in the promotion of exchange of the Iraqi tastiest dinar price peppered strong effects on the stability of goods tradable prices, which Eshrha at the same time the annual inflation basis (expressed in index of consumer prices) which led this policy to reduce The annual inflation rate to 2.6% in August 2015 and requires from the Iraqi Central Bank to adopt a policy aimed at reducing inflation and to address the trends and causes and in a manner provides critical stability of the wider and order to expedite the economic growth rates and ensure perpetuating through two signals main points, namely strengthening the real interest rate and the price of the Iraqi dinar exchange on to accelerate the balance and stability of the financial market and macroeconomic stability in the country.

Fifth: to control the levels of liquidity and management
According to the economic stability of the rules of monetary policy works analyzing the money supply and narrow in its broadest sense and liquidity position and determine the money supply and its components in the broad sense (cash) but the reality of the application confirms that control the levels of liquidity has not been achieved fully and effectively and had a negative impact on the cash trading activity and thus not control of liquidity in the lower and upper boundaries and within the standards set by the Central Bank of Iraq.

Sixth: stimulate the banks to move towards market
Implementation of monetary policy adopted to serve the expansion of the credit scale and achieve the objectives of economic development has used the bank this tool with a view to controlling liquidity through directed banks to move towards the market and contribute to the economic stability of the monetary credit granted to finance the economic sectors of agriculture, industry, services, trade and housing, but conditions in Iraq economic, security, political, and not to give the key role of the private banking sector led to the weakness of the private sector-led market.

Monetary policy proposals for the next phase applications
Since the Central Bank of Iraq is currently preparing a plan for the coming years in the development of policies, programs and working mechanisms and in particular with regard to the applications of monetary policy and means of supervision and control of the Iraqi banking sector believe that the study made ​​the following observations and suggestions:

That the Central Bank of Iraq to re-plan and future policies of cash until 2020 with confirmation of its main goal of dealing with inflation and achieve the planned growth in the contribution of the banking sector in the GDP and the central economic task as well as it is necessary to search for new policies to achieve this goal and allows the government and private banks to participate in growth and investment in accordance with the mechanisms and policies can be implemented without the imposition of strict policies and give sufficient elasticity.

Address the apparent gap between the financial policies of the state and monetary policies adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq and the requirements of the fight against inflationary pressures and reduce the current expenditure and coordination of plans and programs to achieve the rescue of the Iraqi economy from financial collapse.

Activation of the Iraqi Central Bank's policy control over monetary policy in the private banking system to support and reconsider the policies of lending and the mechanics of credit risk management in the granting of credit to small and medium investment and loans in production and investment sectors that check clear cash flow and revive the economic cycle, which would contribute to the economic development and diversification of financial resources the general budget.

The Central Bank of Iraq to reconsider study the possibility of lowering the cap timeout law of the volume of deposits in banks and frozen with the Central Bank of Iraq without investment as these frozen funds can invest and benefit from the support of private banks and enable them to expand their investment activities and the search for new banking products also requires the development of mechanisms for lending to banks, which suffer from a severe liquidity crisis due to the general economic situation that Iraq is going through.

Development and support and stimulate the Iraq Stock Exchange and to find the means and tools that push and effective market and companies index prices in line, assets and standard output and profits by at least inevitably about the true value of stocks and prevent speculation that harm Iraq's asset-which does not fit the true and actual value.

The Central Bank of Iraq to reconsider the instructions for auction foreign currency and regulate the sale of dollar process and define the role of banks in the mediation between the customer and the central bank in addition to determine the responsibility of the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning in the irregularities committed by some customers and not to download only the responsibility of the banks.

The establishment of (fund) or (a private portfolio) to certificates of deposit issued by banks wishing to address the deterioration of stock prices in the Iraq Stock Exchange and the addition of new banking management of the current investment investment climate in the market to stimulate as well as increasing the volume of bank deposits, which leads to increased investment activities in all sectors of the economy and thus achieve positive impact for investors.

The boards of directors of banks in approving operational risk strategy and implementation of the executive management of the bank to ensure that the operational risks associated with all types of banking products selected. And provide a base of information flowing in the bank, which play an important and key role in establishing and maintaining effective framework for operational risk management and follow-up over the possession of the banks an effective system for identifying, measuring and monitoring operational risk as part of risk management. And the Central Bank is preparing a regular and independent assessment of the strategies, policies and procedures for bank-related operational risks and the adoption of this regulation as a basic criteria for assessing banks and classification

Reconsider a provision for doubtful debts in accordance with the list of guidance and re-elasticities and extended extra time for banks to be able to liquidate these debts, most of which go back to earlier periods and most debtors have migrated outside their cities Iraq for security reasons beyond their control and that these ratios lead to a cut in the profits realized actually result These percentages deducted from net profit and thus affect the new investment banking activities.

Restructuring of the banking sector, especially the government banking sector and to study the privatization of some of its divisions, branches and work on activating the operating banks expand and diversify their banking services especially to increase credit and investment share in a balanced manner with revenues of college to become these banks an effective pillar of economic growth that the move away from the monopoly of some banking operations and the withholding of government activities and public institutions for private banks.
(*) Researcher and economist Link

Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert

VIDEO: Federal Reserve Inaction Could Start Currency War

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Sometimes doing nothing is the same as doing something -- at least, that's how it is when it comes to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates.

The stock market stays high because the Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates. The Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates because the U.S. inflation rate remains low. The inflation rate remains low because the value of the U.S. dollar is high. The dollar is strong because world commodity prices have fallen and have "driven up the dollar and held down U.S. import prices."

According to the Financial Times, the last three items mentioned are interrelated. Furthermore, it now seems as if momentum is picking up within the Federal Reserve to postpone any increases in it policy rate for an extended period of time. That inaction may not be the best decision in terms of the relative strength of currencies.

At least the doves -- those reluctant to raise interest rates -- are making their voices heard on the issues. Yesterday, Daniel Tarullo, one of the Fed's Governors, joined another Fed Governor, Lael Brainard, who argued on Monday that the Fed should not raise its target short-term interest rate any time soon.

The value of the dollar fell. By early afternoon Wednesday, it cost around $1.145 to buy a Euro, the same rate as on Sept. 17, the day the Federal Open Market Committee decided that the Fed would keep its target short-term interest rate unchanged.

The Governors believe that inflation is not going to return that quickly and that without data supporting the return of inflation toward a level closer to the Fed's target rate of 2%, there should be no upward movement in the policy rate.

Certainly, the predictions of Fed officials don't indicate any quick return of the economy to the Fed's target. In these forecasts the expectation is for the inflation rate to pick up in 2016 and 2017, but a 2% inflation rate is not expected until 2018.

That's a long time.

According to the Financial Times article, if the Fed doesn't move interest rates for a long time, the value of the dollar will continue to fall. This should connect to a faster rise in inflation than is forecast by the Fed.

With interest rates constant, the stock market should continue to rise.

But if inflation begins to rise, the Fed will have a justification for raising short-term interest rates, which will cause the value of the dollar to increase. This will result in slowing down the inflation rate once again.

According to this argument, the stock market should begin to fall because the Fed is raising interest rates

The key connector here seems to be the relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and any action that the Federal Reserve might take on raising short-term interest rates.

The Financial Times article seems to believe that the route of causation here is from world commodity prices to the value of the U.S. dollar, to U.S. inflation, ending with the action of the Federal Reserve.

The market seems to be acting according to another path. If the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, the value of the US dollar will fall and this will have an impact on the commodity prices of emerging nations, causing import prices and U.S. inflation to rise.

So, what is the causative factor here?

In the Financial Times article, the causative factor seems to be commodity prices and the effect these commodity prices have on the U.S. dollar and inflation.

This seems to be the view of Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer and the Federal Open Market Committee. The decline in the price of oil and other commodity prices is just a temporary deviation from the level these prices should really be at.

Once these prices begin to return to level they were previously at, then inflation will move to a higher level and the value of the dollar should decline. The Fed can then raise short-term interest rates and this will bring markets back to a more normal condition.

But, what happens if oil prices and commodity prices do not return to higher levels and inflation does not return to the 2% level?

Right now, the Eurozone is showing deflation and the UK has produced a 0.1%, year-over-year decline in prices. China seems to be battling price weaknesses, as do several emerging markets.

Rising levels of inflation are not a sure bet for the Federal Reserve. Expected data releases do not lend a lot of confidence in the "return to higher" rates of inflation.

This view about inflation being the causative factor does not account for investors who seem to want the value of the dollar to remain strong. These investors believe that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates now.

This latter scenario raises the possibility that if the Fed does not raise its target policy rate, other countries will have to take further action to ease up further on their economic policies. The European Central Bank will extend its quantitative easing. The Bank of England will not raise its policy rates. The Peoples Bank of China will attempt to achieve further ease so that the renminbi will fall against the U.S. dollar.

In effect, this looks like a currency war, and the world cannot afford a currency war at this time.

The Federal Reserve needs to take these things into consideration in making their policy decisions. They are, after all, the global reserve currency and they cannot avoid the responsibilities that go along with this position.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13324401/1/federal-reserve-inaction-could-start-currency-war.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

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Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert

VIDEO: Consumers shutting down as US economy deflates

The math is pretty simple: A lack of purchasing power for consumers has led to a lack of pricing power for companies.

When it comes to the U.S. economy big-picture outlook, the ramifications are more complicated, and not particularly pleasant.

Wednesday's producer price index reading, showing a monthly decline of 0.5 percent, demonstrates a larger problem: At a time when policymakers are hoping to generate the kind of inflation that would indicate strong growth, the reality is that deflation is looming as the larger threat. Declining prices often would be treated as a net positive by consumers, but income weakness is offsetting the effects.

Even Wall Street is feeling the heat. Prices for brokerage-related services and financial advice dropped 4.3 percent in September, accounting for about a quarter of the entire slide for final demand services.

The prospects heading into year's end are daunting.

In addition to the punk PPI number, retail sales gained by just 0.1 percent in September. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, sales actually declined 0.1 percent. On top of that, the August retail numbers were revised lower, with the headline rate now flat from the originally reported 0.2 percent gain.

On the same day as the two disappointing data releases, Wal-Mart warned that the weakness is likely to extend through its fiscal year, with sales expected to be flat. The warning sent its shares tumbling 9 percent in morning trade, the worst performance in 15 years.

Read More When Wal-Mart plunges, sell these stocks, too
All in all, then, not a great environment in which to raise rates, which the Federal Reserve hopes to do before the end of the year.

"Consumers are growing increasingly uncertain regarding their future income streams and are less willing to finance today's spending with the prospect of tomorrow's improved, future earnings," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income, said in a note to clients. "With gasoline prices at multiyear lows, consumers should be spending gangbusters but they aren't."

Wage growth remains elusive for most workers, with the average hourly earnings rising just 2.2 percent annually. Job growth has slowed as well, with average monthly nonfarm payroll additions in the third quarter down nearly 28 percent from the previous quarter.

The data on the ground shoot holes in a number of theories that were expected to drive the economy, market behavior and Fed policymaking.

Piegza said the latest numbers should give a boost to those advocating the Fed wait on the sidelines until it sees more evidence of inflation. The Fed has been keeping its key rate near zero for nearly seven years and has expanded its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion though quantitative easing in an attempt to goose economic growth.

"This morning's [retail sales] report ... further bolsters the dovish argument to keep rates lower for longer until price pressures are evident in the economy," she wrote. "The question for the Fed is not when will inflation reverse course back to 2 percent, but, at this point, what inflation?

Economists expected 2015 to be the year the U.S. economy found some level of escape velocity from the post-Great Recession doldrums. The ever-growing prospect of deflation is changing all that.

The news isn't better elsewhere in the world, either. Fresh releases overnight saw China consumer prices rise 0.1 percent on a monthly basis and the yearly increase was just 1.6 percent, while Japan and India saw declines in wholesale prices that were more than expected.

"The U.S. economy remains the strongest in the developed markets, but there are cracks emerging," Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report for clients this week.

In response, BofAML has cut its outlook both for gross domestic product gains and the stock market. The firm now sees second-half GDP rising just 2.4 percent, from the previous 2.8 percent projection. Equity strategist Savita Subramanian has sliced her end-year forecast for the S&P 500 from 2,100 to 2,000 — about flat from the current level — and reduced her 12-month expectation for the index from a gain of 14 percent down to 8 percent.

Given an increasingly difficult set of circumstances, the Fed will struggle to justify a rate increase.
Forecasting firm Capital Economics, which has been expecting rate hikes going back to March, now believes nothing is likely to happen this year. Paul Ashworth, Capital's chief U.S. economist, cut his GDP expectations for the third quarter to 1.7 percent.

Other expectations are more pessimistic: The Atlanta Fed is projecting 1 percent growth, which is where JPMorgan Chase cut its target to on Wednesday, down from 1.5 percent.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/14/consumers-shutting-down-as-us-economy-deflates.html