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Friday, July 17, 2015

TERRYK CHAT UPDATE, 17 JULY

TERRYK Morning Drive By 7/17/2015 11:00am edt

[.TERRYK] Morning all
[arizona49] .TERRYK Good morning boss, good to see you :)
[.TERRYK] What's going on today
[floriada] GM  tk
[floriada] can't believe i'm actually in here at the same time you are.
[arizona49] .TERRYK Enjoying a beautiful morning
[.TERRYK] only have 4% battery
[.TERRYK] grrrr
[arizona49] .terryk rut row 
[.TERRYK] power issues here again
[.TERRYK] hey florida
[.TERRYK] So any wonderful news
[.TERRYK] I'm hoping we see movement this weekend
[DrRod] .terryk Good Morning sir! 
[.TERRYK] hey dr rod
[arizona49] .TERRYK A little slow coming in from the sandbox
[.TERRYK] well ..... I think they are farther along that they are leading on to be
[arizona49] .TERRYK I think they are too, not going to tip their hand too much, so to speak
[arizona49] 7/17/2015 Lagarde: IMF ready to participate in the Greek package "complete" >>> Christine Lagarde Director of the International Monetary Fund said on Friday that the Fund is ready to take part in what she described package "complete" in order to promote Greece's economy back on its feet and become a country is able to service its debt and raise funds from financial markets. reaffirmed told Europe 1 radio on its view that the country needs to the exemption of some debt, saying that this should not necessarily be in the form of a direct drop her but could include measures such as the large extension of maturities and repayment schedules.    http://wwww.alforatnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=90286
[.TERRYK] if you listened to the call wed night you would say oh yea
[arizona49] .terryk oh yea!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Great call 
[.TERRYK] that's great news if Greece accepts it
[.TERRYK] ok all gotta run, think 3.91. God Bless

Iraqi dinar exchange rate ... hole swallows foreign exchange reserves, 17 JULY

O.d.abdalhasin Anbuge *: Iraqi dinar exchange rate ... hole swallows foreign exchange reserves

- PUBLISHED IN 07/16/2015

The exchange rate of the basic economic variables that change per day continuously in response to the forces of currency supply and demand. And the importance of the effect of the exchange rate in economic performance varies from country to country according to the country's circumstances and the type of economy and the stage through which the ladder of development and the nature of the economic structure of the country and the diversity of income and wealth sources in it,

and therefore the exchange rate once be independent variables affect the dependent variables and once again be the same He changes holds in other variables variable, and there is no one to do with the deltoid causality of the exchange rate trend,
I have personally I ask not to raise the dinar exchange rate since 2006 and I wish I stayed (US $ 1 = 1500) to the economy was put on the best and we have provided a reasonable level of protection the domestic product and provided funds of the general budget of the state.

First: General features of the philosophy of the exchange rate in Iraq:
Dialectic of cause and effect: that the exchange rate of the currency of a country, are a natural product of the strength of the country's economy and consistency of economic performance in which the input volume of domestic and foreign economic activities and outputs, and the level of internal balance (savings-investment) and external balance of the balance of payments (exports-imports),

it is the power of a country's currency strength of its economy, and not vice versa, as some have imagined in Iraq, where neglect the real forces that are supposed to create values ​​and entry and accumulation and growth, and cling to the variable easier because it is under the hand (the exchange rate) and make the entire economy follower of Tzbzbath in the short term this is not true understanding.

The exchange rate is authorized mirror that sees the economy in the face: If his face and Performance beautiful featured his photo in a beautiful mirror, and if the ugliness of his face and his performance was his picture ugly, either the shape ugly and beautifies all types of aggregates,

it looks like lifting the Iraqi dinar exchange Bekazat feeble price fall when any storm which is called idiomatically (exchange rate inordinate), but, how much is the amount of hyperbole this, it depends on the size of the gap between the exchange rate as if it were floating dinar (fully undergoing the forces of supply and demand) and exchange rate controlled through crutches and aggregates exercised by the Central Bank of Iraq, and we can Kmokhtchin that we use to measure models Bmanoah high to portray the image of a floating dinar and measure the gap, Van was a great superiority of certain limits, there is no benefit of the Iraqi economy to uphold at the official current exchange rate set by the Central Bank (US $ 1 = 1166 Dinar )

We must move to a higher level reduces the negative effects of hyperbole price of the dinar exchange and creates positive effects support the performance of the Iraqi economy and maintain its foreign exchange reserves of continuity Alastnsvav under the weight of what fosters increased reserve less than what spent to maintain the (current dinar exchange rate) from the reserve. This equation is the other must be observed with standard size hyperbole that we talked about earlier.

What are the local currency coverings: Then what is supposed to the dinar exchange rate against foreign currencies strength, lids no longer as it was it the other has changed, no longer gold and foreign exchange from the world's leading currency is the basis for the cover of local currencies in developing and underdeveloped countries, but Many indicators related to the price of a country's currency exchange, including the economic performance in the supply side appeared, and I mean the gross domestic product in terms of size first, and where the sources generated

Secondly, as well as internal balance (the volume of savings and the volume of investment) and external balance of the balance of payments (the volume of exports and the volume of imports ) and rates of movement of capital in and out of the country, and that the size of confidence in the economy and rates of growth and governance performance and credit rating of the country and other indicators embodied nutshell wide acceptance of the currency of the country in the coverage of trading commodity not to mention that that trust promotes the coin function as a store of value and is present to keep the wealth among institutions and individuals, and it is no longer foreign exchange reserves weighting the largest in determining the exchange rate if the currency floated because this reserve in the absence of other indicators of the performance of the firm Economic stable, lead to reserve depletion, which continues to continued support weak currency you want to adapt and take a natural value-driven correction exercised by supply and demand, but the administrative decisions of the Central Bank and operations practiced by the auction and a mix of social and political pressures and desires and special interests in the short-term ahead of the interests of the Iraqi economy in the long term and continue to work as opposed to development and reconstruction.

For example, the Jordanian dinar stable long ago, why?: It has to do with the sources of gross domestic product (GDP) from where it comes ?, Do you come from a dominant source as is the case in Iraq, where oil dominates the contribution of up to 80% of gross domestic product (GDP), for example, or He comes from a variety of activities, whether sector-born Rei, this sector which are added values ​​of the elements of production involved in it are few and dominated the earth return (rent).

As is the case with oil, which does not contribute to the work, but something very simple and there is a limited contribution to the capital also compared to other sectors, and therefore the larger the yield is (a godsend) largesse of the earth without Entrust ourselves to make any manufacturing operations doubled from the multiplier values ​​and raise the price the market for several times, or is sold as a raw material, and when those heavenly gift be grown on the activity of the firm be subject to fluctuations in the global market and have the effect of supporting force the currency exchange rate and frail, let alone whether those crude exports total, staying in dollars, they are then, dollars out of Earth, fit together and integrated in its external economy than with the domestic economy, and the biggest problem it fully in the government's pockets, and that's where government spending is mostly (irrational) It is difficult to adjust the rationality standards which, the pumping of dollars in economic body not be through the arteries correct and veins necessarily, it may be a very small vein is injected with large amounts of foreign exchange because Injector (the government) is not the same needy (the economy) may be large veins need a large injection, but it is not injected into the only thing very little, in front of this picture will get confused The relationship between the presence of dollars on the one hand and the citizen real absorbed on the other hand,

Valachtnaqat operate our crisis hurt the poor and surpluses caused us escape of dollars of income cycle to return to the outside, either because they are washed because they are from suspicious sources, or they are looking for investment opportunities after a failed environment crisis Local investment absorbed, or is it that the generation of the gross domestic product (GDP) came from multiple, balanced and real sources stemming from the interaction of the five factors of production (labor, capital, land, organization, technology), and if they balanced the needs of the economic activities of foreign exchange directly proportional compatible with outputs

Those activities of contributions to GDP and thus their contribution to the creation of the rights of others a large section of them resident in foreign currency being directed for export, so the Jordanian dinar, for example, stable over a long period of time, not because the Central Bank of Jordan adept at adjusting the dinar exchange, never price, but The Jordanian dinar is the product of equations produce real and spending both on the supply side or the demand side, because the requirement comes from the activity itself based on market forces and private sector interests, and output is the output of trying to satisfy the market and profitable for the private sector, nothing is imported in order to tamper corrupt to conclude recoverable contracts and get commissions, this attitude of the government sector and not the attitude of the private sector, because the government in the narrowest economic episodes in Jordan and in the wider economic episodes in Iraq gets the difference,

Valdhabt Jordanian dinars strong real market derived from real imports and real exports and imports paid for from the pockets of those who need and exports enters revenue from foreign exchange for the pockets of exporters and they are not the government,

and the government, but the collection of levies to finance their activities, either in Iraq, the picture is upside down because all the exports are almost government revenue in the government's pockets and the structure of imports distorted because it is a real driven forces are not (Strong Market) and the actual need but is a strong personal use administrative corruption and administrative drawbacks and the bribes and others.

Therefore, the Central Bank of Jordan does not need a lot of work to keep the exchange Jordanian dinar stable price because the product of the real power in the market, while the Iraqi dinar exchange rate is not the product of the real forces of the market economy, but rather the result of administrative procedures (sound was or wrong) for government employees and the Central Bank, so The Jordanian dinar exchange rate variable belonging to the forces of the Jordanian economy, while the Iraqi dinar exchange rate has become a variable (independent) and intended to be used to make the Iraqi economy affiliate, which is another form of (Iraqi economy upside down) that we have mentioned in a previous article.

Rentier economy eats itself: dependence on crude oil create our people lazy worshiped public office even crumbs salaries and run away from the private sector, discharger of any spirit of initiative, not fluent in market risk management, if he is forced forced to work in the private sector is a gambler than an investor , seize the opportunities offered by a government employee and they are many in order to manipulate, not thinking to grasp the opportunities profitable and economically viable, not tired mind the economic and financial accounts, which he calls a complicated and does not accept the use of consultants specialists to avoid payment to them without realizing that it could lose a lot, live mentality totals it handles peddlers no matter how great his fortune, does not pay for the time of interest in the field of deep-rooted and the sustainability of its realization,

but Aosrh time only in a very short duration and to reap quick profits, has no affiliation to the activity and sector production is ready to leave at any moment towards other activity more tempting in the field a quick profit derived from manipulation, and above all longs for government action when it had the chance, and the government sector flabby tired arranged Dhalth content at the end of the month (whether produced or not produced) and this major catastrophe, Kafr El-economic standards, but those who work carefully and perseverance it that have arrows from Alvargin who do not speak only problems, hypocrisy, ingratiating and corruption, and so statistics indicate that the government employee of the Iraqi work under slouch this sector does not exceed (19 minutes of work a day), and all that work that we sell crude oil, which is my most volatile and a decline in markets, years ago, the exchange in the global markets equation (price 2 barrels of oil = 1 ton of wheat) and today with the decline in the price of the issue and the escalation of the price of what we import has become (the price of 11 barrels of oil = 1 ton of wheat) and we still neglect the obstacles to the production of wheat and Nzll difficulties before the export of crude oil , and this is one example of the thousands of examples in the real productive sectors on the line compass that we walk on them, and we still we capture ourselves and we capture our currency for raw dollars that come out of the earth and all its volatility and disruption in the overall national accounts and economic for our indicators, in front of these data we want to remain clinging virginity false to the price of the dinar exchange, and by extension remain Izr general ideas without specialists ideas, and live the illusion that the strength of our economy from the power of our currency, and we have examples do not learn from them, we have Russia when he was economy of the siege and the problems was the priority has to maintain the rhythm of the sound economic performance, and for him without simply for the virginity of the ruble exchange rate, public say collapsed Russian economy because the ruble collapsed, and you pay the Russians to protect their economy from collapse by reducing the ruble exchange rate, it then means the treatment and is not a disease, is also believed theorists (upside down), and the same thing I did the Islamic Republic of Iran , it was faced with the most severe types of blockade and economic war and turned the equation and make its economy depends on the self and grow their productive sectors quickly, but had to make an offering of it, which is giving up virginity Iranian Altoman, until he became at a very low against foreign currencies, but this offering prevent the real Iranian economy of collapse and continued demand for the product until the Iranian occupied large areas of neighboring countries markets.

Note my brothers, if we produce (tons of wheat instead of 11 barrels of oil) and produce what we wear and what we build and what we ride and use instead of staying on oil, we gain another positive factor is the price difference, we gain is derived real stability of the production of real creative sectors values ​​added rely indicators calculation supports the stability of the value of the dinar and reduces its dependence on fluctuations of oil markets and oil revenue for the government and method of disposition, and much closer because the real powers in support of the stability of the Iraqi dinar to be similar to supporting the stability of the Jordanian dinar to that.

Second, the damage associated with the price inordinate exchange:

When the dinar exchange rate is not a real rose in previous years upped the auction conducted by the central bank to leave many negative effects on the economy, including:1. Low oil revenues resident dinar:

At the time disputed ministries and provincial allocations to prevail and the recession in the economy, we note that the difference in oil revenues (JD) as a result of raising the dinar exchange rate of 1500 dinars for $ 1 to 1166 dinars for $ 1 in the budgets of the (2007-2013) as in the table below , and the loss of more than 161 trillion dinars, the equivalent of now at the official rate of the dollar more than $ 138 billion, contributed to the widening deficit in public budgets, and had been injected into the economy through an auction currency - quickly went out again - to achieve the goal of raising Exchange Rate dinar, without being aware that this goal originally wrong and not a positive impact on the overall economy.

2. raising the dinar exchange rate did not stop the inflation phenomenon:
May be reduced headstrong inflation, but he did not stop for the phenomenon, why ?, because inflation in Iraq real often and not in cash, as demonstrated several studies we have had, that inflation sources come from the driving factors of cost and private cost to provide security and the cost of fuel, energy and cost infrastructure, production, transportation, and probably very few of them Mtota of the increase in the money supply, the sense is paid shocked view and shock the display part does not mean Shehta, but the high cost of production, may be part of it drawn towards the top demand, but the demand is saturated keeps deprived society and prevent him of development and where we went out of the failure of 40-year-old gap and there is a great demand deferred supposed to seek to saturated not suppressed again,

so you do not raise the dinar exchange rate importance in reducing inflation rates as long as the forces of supply is still unable to overcome the crises in various sectors, and the forces of demand irrational mostly driven by spending government irrational, where most of the private sector spending indirectly generated, government spending, the fact that the private sector works contractor with the government often will move an important part of the deformation government demand to deformation and ducts private demand impact derived from corruption and therefore it stayed the dinar exchange rate is improving and inflation increasing at the same Alatjah.kma in the figure below, where we pay less dinars to the dollar (exchange rate improvement) At the same time dinars more for the same goods and services:

3. dollar smuggling from Iraq:
The cheap dollar compared to what it is in neighboring countries and the world leads to the prevalence of smuggling cases in search of a price shift Supreme like looking for a cheap commodity demand top price of saturation. This forms Mtota from the fact that the central bank Magali in raising the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar under the pretext of supporting economic stability, which is the other did not materialize, because the instability Mtota of factors other real related to production and employment, investment, income generation and cost and added values ​​rather is derived from monetary factors task, it is not able to variable exchange rate that addresses the structural imbalance, so it was bet on the stability in the exchange rate alone does not lead to the development will not lead to development, it was a decade of lost unfortunately development, because development is to break the monotony and stability and create a strong payments in the side of the process real, to be the cause of creating a sustainable stability in the future, and it was the central bank that is the power of the real economy is set for the value of its currency floating, not improve the image of the economy through freehand value coin administrative Bekazat flimsy may swallow up foreign exchange reserves without being able to create stability, and smuggling

This has led to increased demand for the Iraqi dollar from neighboring countries, and will not be able to every police methods of control over it, but this is possible through prudent monetary policy, and the dollars that do not run away for speculation and selling price up, they run away in search of better opportunities for investment because the structural imbalance and poor business environment and corruption, reflected in the growing costs makes less profit opportunities.

4. strengthening the economy of the phenomenon of rent-seeking:
The lifting of the dinar exchange rate works as opposed to protectionist measures required to protect the local product to compete with goods of similar imported services, which means that the exchange rate inordinate provides a margin of protection for foreign product to compete with local product,

if any, which we are working upside down counter to the interests of our economy, and so will prices of imported goods cheap dollar looks pricey Iraqi consumers and competition, while prices of exported goods look expensive for foreign consumers and competition, thereby enhancing the imbalance in the structure of exports where oil remains only dominant, as well as enhance the disruption of the structure of imports only consumer favor, after a reluctant local product production to its inability to compete with foreign final product will not be need to import capital goods (capital) economy is occurring among the largest financier about Bria oil consumption.

Also, content import to the size of the total demand in the Iraqi economy is high mainly, which increases the leakage in the income cycle because the income generates mostly from oil, where accounts for almost 80% of GDP is spent mostly abroad for the purposes of import as supplemented by income cycle abroad, This is too late more with the lifting of the dinar exchange rate procedures, some might say, where the product of the Iraqi order to encourage him to export ?, or say let's import cheap goods and consume as long as we do not have the production, this argument for some people, unfortunately, is the case for retaining the comfortable pillow of the proceeds of oil and hibernate Long Iraqi economy (Sleeping economy), but see enough sleep in a large hospital named Iraq eat the food and water the medicine versus crude oil pipeline extending to the outside, and why? Iraq only has to sleep and lag all other oil countries girl productivity rules replace oil depleted? .

5. deepening of the phenomenon of dollarization:
When floating the Iraqi dinar with all currencies, except the dollar as associated with equations calculation by evaluating the revenue in the budget, and associated with him again at the central bank auction without the rest of the currencies, this companionship continuing with the dollar, both toward the rise or fall of the price of the dinar exchange They indicate the presence of (inherent) between the two currencies and not (floating relationship) which enshrines the phenomenon of dollarization, no one claims to be raising the price of the dinar is facing excessive dollarization, because dollarization achieved by sticking both directions as it sounds.

Third, it raised associated with the decline in the dinar exchange rate:

1. High inflation:

Will get a rise in inflation rates with the significant decline in the dinar exchange rate, especially in the short term due to declining purchasing power of the dinar, this effect side will have an impact on the social side slipped people's living standards especially from people with limited income (craftsmen) and those with fixed incomes (staff state), and after the passage of the economic adjustments desired associated period for this procedure reform and the absence of some or all of the adverse exchange rate overvalued the effects mentioned above, start positive to emerge effects, length or palace of this period it depends on the availability of complementary factors other and the flexibility of the production system in the country , we mean effects positive is an improvement in the competitiveness of the domestic product after the demise of margin protection for foreign product that was provided by the exchange rate overvalued it, and the increasing government's ability to spend on infrastructure that reduce production costs, which will be followed by increased production and operation and increase access of distributed elements production form in which it is facing the negative effects of inflation, where regain real incomes recover and may improve more than the previous, and when these adaptations work be inflation (inflation development) is especially bad consequences in a country that seeks development.

Praised effects of development of inflation will re-balance for people with limited income in the private sector, they will sell their products competitively and higher prices, however, aggrieved at the micro level remains are the owners of fixed inflexible entry (state officials), but at the macro level, the economy will correct itself, where become over time a government job repellent and the private sector an attractive, a reformist demand does not differ by two, and when that happens we put laws and regulations protect workers in the private sector, by contrast, put the rate of increase in staff salaries is directly proportional to the rate of inflation, after that tend privileges of the other state employees which tarnished the labor market and in particular the exclusive right to receive a piece of land and the exclusive right to obtain a guaranteed salary and other loans.

2. Escape phenomenon of enlightened father:
The phenomenon of escape from the currency existed in the period of the economic blockade and got with the Iraqi dinar when the dinar fall day against the dollar and loses part of its purchasing power because of hyperinflation, and people were fleeing from the dinar towards fixed assets, gold or foreign currencies stable (fixed) as dollar, the beneficiary Escape from the phenomenon of the dinar was working abroad who receive wages and revenue in dollars while purchases are in Iraq Dinars and were able to purchase real estate assets as a result of the high dollar exchange rate against the dinar.

He got the contrary after 2003, when the dollar falls against the dinar is not an expression of the real side growth in the economy, but upped (Baekaz) by monetary policy, and became the beneficiary of this phenomenon are working in Iraq and obtaining their wages and their returns in dinars, but that their families resident abroad and economic activities List abroad are buying assets, real estate and to accumulate dollar balances abroad taking advantage of the exchange raised forcibly dinar rate (rather than floated), where they get more dollars Bdnanar less, and most of the beneficiaries of this phenomenon engaged in service and commercial fast work of yield and are reluctant for access to productive areas Slow-yield and high-risk and thus be in their interest to promote the development rentier economy and the development of consumer behavior without the development of productive behavior in Iraq.


If we abandon extremism in the dinar exchange rate and made floating big up and over the two bounds of relative stability within the limits of the exchange rate of the lowest of the dinar, may go back to the phenomenon of escape from the dinar, meaning that the dinar loses part of his job as a store of value, but it may reclaim after investigation relative stability, even after a period of up to a minimum, despite the fact that the International Monetary Fund could be convinced to float the dinar, while maintaining a certain level of stability in the value of the currency orbit, but the Central Bank of Iraq was more royalist than the King in the previous policy.

Finally, if we compare the negative exchange rate overvalued in, and the effects of the forecast as relics if we retreat with him, we will find it total, the effects of reform desirable rebalance of the Iraqi economy and save him from the clutches of the imbalance, even if some medicine bitter and some a troublesome side effects, but it treatment leads to healing, then what is the alternative for non-death treatment, we will stay clinging to an error at the price of high-dinar exchange are fake laugh it on ourselves, in order to maintain the level we have to pumping more more dollars at the auction, in the equation dip our revenue dollar, we'll be witnesses on the foreign exchange reserves at the central bank swallows by the black hole (the exchange rate) to become without the required level of cover and we can not develop other wrap indicators then we are facing a real crisis, and we have to then start the same reform measures, so why do not we are embarking upon We reserve Manfezon, before the problem is compounded, and impossible solutions.

(*) Counselor for Economic Affairs-prime minister

LINK

DINAR GURUS UPDATE , 17 JULY

7-17-2015   Newshound Guru Stryker   Abdalhasin Anbuge...Counselor for Economic Affairs-prime minister  QUOTE   "there is no benefit of the Iraqi economy to uphold at the official current exchange rate set by the Central Bank (US $ 1 = 1166 Dinar) We must move to a higher level reduces the negative effects of hyperbole price of the dinar exchange and creates positive effects".  Dr. Abdul Basit Turki...Former Governor Central Bank of Iraq.  QUOTE  "the fiscal and monetary authorities in Iraq now that is seriously considering (and bravely) adjust the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and including in line with the real price for the operation of the economy and the productive sectors".    Mohammed Saleh...Former Deputy Governor CBI and Adviser to PM Abadi.  QUOTE   "need to unify the exchange rate between the central bank and the price that deals with people in the market, and make it pricier one actually commensurate with the oil and economic conditions austerity sale and the defense of this price volatility price."    three of top economic advisers support moving the exchange rate higher to conform with today's circumstances...all three man believe it is time to increase the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar.

7-17-2015  Newshound Guru tlm724
   Article:  "Border crossings director for} {Euphrates News: We seek to trade diversion of Trebil to Arar"  Quote: "The Directorate proposed trade diversion from Atrebel border port between Iraq and Jordan to Arar border port and be Hama port for Saudi Arabia through the approval of the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers."   they are finally figuring this out, change the border crossing as we saw them do the other day in order to gain control...then open them back up once they have control of the area, they'll have to do this quickly if they expect tariffs to be implemented in August.

7-17-2015   Newshound Guru wmawhite
   [I heard that when they close their borders is a positive sign.]  I have never understood what the closing of the boarders would have to do with the IQD changing in value "outside" of Iraq...it never made any sense to me.  [I heard it was from when they revalued their currency years ago...they prevented people from coming in to country to exchange... their was just a few days to do it in. This is why I don't get that reasoning...inside Iraq the 1 IQD will equal 1 IQD...regardless what the exchange rate will be out of Iraq If you took your IQD today and went to Iraq you would receive 1 IQD for every 1 IQD you have...and even after the IQD changes in value...you will receive 1 IQD for every 1 IQD you have...and yes...it will have more value outside of Iraq...and that is important OUTSIDE of Iraq...   

7-17-2015   Newshound/Intel Guru BGG   
The IMF, WB and others are ready willing and able to help... but it is becoming increasingly clear all the "good intentions" they can muster won't be enough.   Abadi (and others) must come to the table with real reforms.  The good news. It appears - they are working diligently on such reforms. Both internally and with external help (the Iran deal).  the next few days and whether or not Maliki actually resigns will be a very exciting time - in relation to this investment (directly)...  I have been plain in my opinions - Maliki (former PM) has held some sway over monetary policy (from behind the scenes) - it is an easy case to make. His usefulness to Iran and the world, for that matter wanes. Once his is out of the way, I expect things to fall (or be put) into place quickly. Reportedly - this may be afoot as we speak...
7-17-2015   Newshound Gurus OOTW & sczin11  IF THEY ARE CLOSING THOSE BORDERS, THEN GUESS WHAT?  THEY CAN IMPOSE TARIFFS ACROSS ALL BORDERS...THAT ARE OPEN!   OBVIOUSLY THE POVERTY STRICKEN COUNTRY, CANT AFFORD THE GOODS NOW, THEY CERTAINLY WONT BE ABLE TO AFFORD THEM WITH HIGHER COSTS...HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASED PURCHASING POWER, AND THE LAUNCHING OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR...WELL ...   [post 2 of 2]

7-17-2015   Newshound Gurus OOTW & sczin11
    THE BORDER'S ARE OBVIOUSLY NOT SAFE WITH THE RELEASE OF "BORDER CONTROL" ANNOUNCEMENTS... IN ACTUALLY ALL THE TRADE WAS DIVERTED TO THE KUWAITI PORT IN BASRA WHICH WE NOW SEE IS GOING TO BE OPEN 24 HOURS PER DAY...WITH THE BANKS OPEN AS WELL TO COLLECT - WHAT BANKS DO AT A BORDER...THEY ARE THERE TO COLLECT TAXES...SO LOOK AT THE TIMING HERE...   THEY'RE RECONFIRMING THAT THE TARIFFS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AUG 1 2015..."ACROSS ALL BORDERS".  [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]

7-17-2015   Newshound Guru Adam Montana  
 [Do you have an opinion you would like to express whether or not the Iran nuke deal is good, bad or indifferent to an RV and why?]  I don't know all the specifics on it, so I can't speak with any authority... but if history is any indicator, it's not good and I don't like it. What does it have to do with an RV? I'm sure it will have some kind of impact at some point in the future, but probably not until after an RV is already done, which means it won't be a major factor in the actual event.

7-17-2015   Intel Guru Frank26
   [Turki last week...now this economic counselor to Abadi this week. Only thing missing is the date!  "there is no benefit of the Iraqi economy to uphold at the official current exchange rate set by the Central Bank (US $ 1 = 1166 Dinar ) We must move to a higher level reduces the negative effects of hyperbole price of the dinar exchange and creates positive effects"]  He is a COUNSELOR...Not a puny ADVISOR. OHHHHHHHHH SOOOOOOOOOOOO SCRUMPTIOUS!!!

SUNNY POST FROM TNT : TONY'S CLIFF NOTES, 17 JULY

Highlights of Tony's CC.  Updated as the call progresses.  Only a one hour call today.

Iraq Announcement reads, "We will see at the beginning of EID what was previously promised."

Tony:  Have not seen the announcement yet. Cards were not loaded yesterday. . . Thursday as they were told.  Banks open on Saturday.  Thought it would go through yesterday. Everybody in lock down. Memo went out to the banks . . . "internationally activated."
DC told Tony this morning it was to have gone last night and no one knows why it did not.
CURRENT WINDOW:   Tony: Everybody in position.  Thought it would happen last night.  EID starts tonight at sundown.
IRAQ:    No fussing, no fighting.  Everybody in agreement.  August 1st is Iraq's date they want to be International by.  Price of oil maybe playing a part in the release.  More oil coming into the market drives the rate down.
  • CBI     
  • Banks 
  • TV message being broadcast:    "We will see at the beginning of EID what was previously promised."               
  • ISIL
INTERNATIONAL:    
  • Greece situation settled.
  • Iran - waiting on vote.    
  • Rates:   Dinar, International,  $4.27;  Dong, $2.27; ZIM, .21; Rupiah, 1.88; Afghan, $2.44.  (Pam clarified in chat after the call that all the rates are international rate's)
UNITED STATES:   Contract rates still available.  
  • UST:    
  • Banks:   been on alert all week and on lock down since Wednesday. 
  • Taxes:  Nothing official yet
  • Packages:          
TONY'S FINAL NOTIFICATION will be on all the sites and tweeted out!  
     Tony can do a call from anywhere in the US.  He has people on Tweet and web page notice standby.  
The web page is already prepared.
CLOSING STATEMENTS:
TONY:  I don’t know why it did not go last night.  Everybody ready.  Bak people on lock down.  People in other countries excited.  Expected cards in Iraq to get loaded yesterday.  They are upset today it did not happen.  They have been told again and again on TV and in newspapers it would. 
Being told this time they would truly see it.  I want it to happen because every time they do this they are losing credibility with their people.  That is dangerous every time they do that over there.  Not only with their government but now in the mosques.   That’s a bad place. 
Absolutely, positively hoping it happens.  It’s over and our new lives can begin.  Going to event tonight if I don’t get a call before then.  But I’m hoping I do. 
. . .  Enjoy the rest of your day guys.  Do a call this afternoon if we have too.  Don’t have to wait until tonight.  If we have to be here Monday we will.  Enjoy your weekend.

TNT CC NOTES, 17 JULY

TNT Call notes 17-July-2015
Tony:  Good morning, TNT!  Today is Friday, July 17, 2015.  I will start with saying prayers to the family of four marines killed yesterday at the recruiting station. 
We could have skipped the call today because we haven’t seen it yet.  I don’t know what was said in the mosques this morning, and they don’t communicate until after sundown. People were told they would have before the Eid, that they would receive it as  promised. 
They did NOT have their cards loaded as they were told. Even though the government told them they would be loaded Thursday, it was not done.  The banks are open on Saturday, so we’ll see. They are all still waiting, getting frustrated by the day as we are. Everyone is still being told ‘any minute, no problems’, nobody arguing, fussing or fighting. EVERYBODY thought it was going last night.  A memo went out from the bank saying, “International rate is being activated” but we didn’t see it.  I don’t know how long it takes to do it, but they got that memo on Wednesday night and that’s why we thought it would go yesterday.
Everything has gone through – Greece, Iraq, Iran and its laws – and they don’t need those to make the announcement. They just need to announce it and get going. We are in a great position.
Rates:  dinar = $4.27, dong = @.27, zim = 22 cents, rupiah = $1.88, afghan = $2.44 as of yesterday, seen in at least three states!  That is the news, can’t get much better than that.  We are just waiting, waiting, waiting. We don’t know what they are waiting for.  Everyone thought it would be here last night, could be here today, tomorrow, at any moment.  Everyone has said Yes, they are comfortable but it still hasn’t happened, so we are clearly waiting for something. The fact that everyone is locked down and waiting is good for us.
617 caller:  I was going to ask about the rates because we heard zim at three cents.
Tony:  We know someone who exchanged zim at three cents, because he wanted to have it now rather than at the end of the month.  Others have also got lower rates, but at least they are exchanging and we’ll see what everyone gets.  It’s not a matter of the codes.  I think some people are being given deals to go to the front of the line, and they are accepting less for that opportunity.
Caller:  But you are now seeing 21 cents on the screen?  Great!  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
301 caller:  Once you get the package with the 800 number, how will we know once the site goes down?  Will there be a silence until you announce the 800 numbers or on the site?  How will we know?  I’m asking for my mother, who is 80 and has dinar and dong.
Tony:  Can I speak to your mother? I am more than glad you are here and involved in it, not just waiting for it to happen.  I definitely want you to reap the benefits and enjoy it. I do get a lot of letters from your age, some even older, some a bit younger, and I share them with my wife.  I just want you to know that people who are 70, 80, 90 have been through the struggle even more than we do.  I hope you have a plan.  Enjoy your day!
Caller and mother:  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
Tony:  Pam and I both get calls and texts after the call asking this and that, things that were already covered on the call!  I probably tell you too much, apart from the really delicate stuff, because people will call me.  I am ready to be over this as much as you are.  I know they will do the RV and do it before they tell us.  They are not taking any chances, and we will know afterwards.  The only part we have to look at is this:  we are doing to find out because I have many sources overseas who are going to find out before they tell us officially.  Then the question becomes, “what do I do between finding out and being told officially?”  I want this to go as smoothly as possible so we can go in to the banks as efficiently and quickly as possible.  I don’t know what they will decide – seven days of calls, one long live call, one 15-minute call – I just don’t know.  I’m going to have to make a decision in the moment, what to do when I first get the news.  I just don’t know.
Caller:  I am jumping from the calls to the information sites… I just don’t know where to get the information.
Tony:  When it comes out, it will be on all those sites.  I will tweet it out so people can get instructions.  I’m pretty sure there will be a site with all the 800 numbers and instructions.  If at all possible, it will be on tntdinar.com and  all our tntsuperfantastic sites (.com, .info, .net), with a static page.  At the very least, the numbers should be there for you to call.  Have a great weekend!
Caller:  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
831 caller:  We are just banging along happily, glad to be in the position we’re in.  Are you truly interested in Partibus series D?  That’s my real question?
Tony:  I’m always interested in a good cigar!  It does look like it will be in the next few days.  They told them their card would be loaded yesterday, and it didn’t happen.  They said they would have this by the Eid, and we are all waiting.  There are two beginnings and two endings;  yesterday CNN said it ends at sundown yesterday, but my understanding is that it ends tonight at sundown and the celebrations start on Saturday.
Last Friday, some people met with me in Sacramento and I got to meet some locals as well.  Today is Friday, and I’m going to do it again at Harlow’s, a club where they have a band tonight.  I will be there along with some ex-NBA players, etc.,  I’ll be there, in the back, at 9.30pm onwards, and I’ll arrange for you to take pictures of them if you want.  This is what concerns me, though:  I love meeting you all, even though Pam and DC say that I’m crazy exposing myself to these people.  I think most people are good people, and I enjoy meeting and talking, seeing what we are doing.  916,524,5131;  I arranged to get in early to meet you all and talk about us (because I haven’t signed an NDA yet), and I’ll tell you what I would do, and also answer some individual questions.
I don’t like when people fly from out-of-state, and that’s why I left this so late. I love meeting people and that’s why I do it, but it doesn’t feel right when people travel for hours just to spend a few minutes with us.  A gal drive all the way from Petaluma for three minutes. Another lady came by bus from Oakland. I appreciate it, but don’t want you to do anything that will be a strain or a problem.  If you are local, then let’s do it!
404 caller:  I was all excited hoping you would be coming to Atlanta!  Maybe another time.  If the party starts at 9.30 PST, that’s after midnight EST, will you be able to send out a tweet or whatever?
Tony: I can do a call or a tweet from anwhere, and I have people ready to change the websites, so it will be fine.
Caller:  Have the dealers been told anything or put on alert?
Tony:  They were put on alert last week, and supposedly given a time period.  This time they just gave them a window of time, which was last week, and they were advised to be vigilant and look for changes.  I haven’t heard about that happening today.
Caller:  The 800 numbers – are those different from the numbers already on the bank sites for the foreign exchange departments?
Tony:  I assume they will be different.
Caller:  Are the American banks being put on alert to stay open longer hours this weekend?
Tony:  I haven’t heard that yet.  They took a day or so off, but are on lockdown again now.
Caller:  The people responsible for pushing the button, is it possible each person thought it was someone else’s job? 
Tony:  If only it were that simple!  <laughter>
Caller:  May today be the day!  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!  Have a great weekend.  And come to Atlanta! 
Tony:  I have friends and family there, so I will be coming to Atlanta.
423 caller:  I’m doing well, I’m just waiting.  They say that a flat tire is just flat on one side…
Tony:  That’s all we are all doing at this point. If I could do it, it would be done long ago!
219 caller:  [Appreciation]  My church has a lot of people who have invested.  With the flux of tithes and offerings given to the church, do you think they will freeze our account?
Tony:  No.  So long as the money is traceable, I don’t think there will be any problem.
Caller:  I know RayRen has meetings and OpenMike:  are the rest of us just out?  He doesn’t seem to answer his calls.
Tony:  I know he is travelling today.  I know Ray wants to do some classes at Vegas, and then do five classes afterwards.
Caller:  I want to go because I don’t want to be financially illiterate, I want to learn how to be financially independent.
Tony:  How’s about on the last call I give out Ray’s number for everyone?  <laughter>
410 caller:  My husband’s calendar says that this evening is the beginning of Eid.  Do we know if the  contracts rates are still in place?  What about taxes?
Tony:  Yes on contract rates and I don’t know anything about the tax status.
Caller:  Thanks!  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!  [Appreciation]
303 caller:  I have two questions. I have a stack of 10K dong and 500K dong;  will there be any difficulty exchanging those together?
Tony: I don’t see any problem with that.
Caller:  If the banks have done a lot of these exchanges, and the dinar and dong are worth nothing on the books, how can the banks get this past the FDIC inspectors without anyone raising an eyebrow?
Tony:  Do you not know what country you live in?  The FDIC writes the laws they need, and they do what they need to do when they need to do it.  It is an accounting maneuver, that’s all.  The bankers figure out how to deal with this – as a loan, or staged payments. I do know the bankers are doing it and protecting themselves as they do it.  It’s not just banking laws that are involved, but they are finding ways to cover themselves as they handle this.
Caller:  I’m waiting like everyone else.  Never mind those haters and naysayers…
Tony:  I have a song all ready to tell you when this happens.  Pam and DC said not to, that they will think I’m crazy, but it’s all ready and done.  The title is “Shut up!”
Caller:  We should all learn it and sing it together in Vegas, and you should lead it!
Tony:  We’ll try to put that on the schedule.  It’s a great song and you will love it!
559 caller:  I’m super-fantastic, too!  Are Greece and Iran still playing their games and holding this up? Some people are saying 1. August…
Tony:  Hopefully this will be our day!  I believe that Greece has been resolved and their banks will open on Monday, and their lives will never be the same.  Iran – there is an agreement, and if it doesn’t get through Congress, the President is determined to use his veto and get it through anyone.  Our sources are telling us last week that they HAD to be international by 1. August to get everything done for the last quarter.  (Their financial calendar might start on 1. November.)  I didn’t make a big deal of it because they will have to be international long before that, but that is what they have in Iraqi parliament for them to post what they want in/for the last quarter.
Caller:  [Appreciation]  We are super-fantastic, blessed, on top and can’t be stopped, and Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
602 caller:  this is Storm on the board.  Did you get a message from DC this morning?
Tony:  I talked to him 90 minutes ago.  He said that everyone is ready to go, there is nothing to do, and everyone he talked said it was supposed to go last night.  Nobody knows why, so they are all sitting on pins and needles, wondering why it didn’t go.
Caller:  On Fox business, they said that they are waiting for the rig report to come out this afternoon, because oil prices are down and they want to see what’s happening.
Tony:  Iraq wants it at the highest possible oil price, but every day that they wait, every barrel they pump out, is driving the price down.  It continues to drop, so you would think that they want to release this right away.  They could be waiting on the report, but every day they wait puts more oil into the market and the rate goes down.
Caller:  [Appreciation]  We love you, Tony!  Vegas, Vegas, Vegas!
909 caller:  Someone talked about Mtn Goat on Wednesday and you said the Goat is not a ‘she’ – does that mean Mtn Goat is Bruce Jenner???
Tony:  No.  <laughter> 
Pam, are you ready?  I always have to give her a little time to find the mute button.
Everyone has been waiting.  They are upset in Iraq this morning because they were told many times that their cards would be loaded. They were told it would happen yesterday, and it did not happen They are waiting for tomorrow, because they were told by the clerics that this time they would really see it.  I want it to happen for us and for them, because everyone time they don’t do what they said, they lose credibility with their people.  It’s not just the government losing credibility now, but those in the mosques as well, and that’s a dangerous place to have doubt.  I just hope it happens, it can be over, and our new lives can begin.
I’m going out to the event tonight unless I hear before then. I’d much rather stay home and do a call with you tonight.  We don’t have to wait until then – I’d be happy to talk to you all this afternoon.  I hope we don’t have the call on Monday, but if we have to, we will.  Enjoy your weekend and I’ll try to enjoy mine.  Thanks, everybody!

EXCERPTS OF BGG & SCZIN11, 17 JULY

BGG :  The IMF, WB and others are ready willing and able to help... but it is becoming increasingly clear all the "good intentions" they can muster won't be enough.   Abadi (and others) must come to the table with real reforms. 

The good news. It appears - they are working diligently on such reforms. Both internally and with external help (the Iran deal).  the next few days and whether or not Maliki actually resigns will be a very exciting time - in relation to this investment (directly)... 

I have been plain in my opinions - Maliki (former PM) has held some sway over monetary policy (from behind the scenes) - it is an easy case to make. His usefulness to Iran and the world, for that matter wanes.

Once his is out of the way, I expect things to fall (or be put) into place quickly.

Reportedly - this may be afoot as we speak...
****
 OOTW & sczin11: THE BORDER'S ARE OBVIOUSLY NOT SAFE WITH THE RELEASE OF "BORDER CONTROL" ANNOUNCEMENTS... IN ACTUALLY ALL THE TRADE WAS DIVERTED TO THE KUWAITI PORT IN BASRA WHICH WE NOW SEE IS GOING TO BE OPEN 24 HOURS PER DAY...WITH THE BANKS OPEN AS WELL TO COLLECT - WHAT BANKS DO AT A BORDER...THEY ARE THERE TO COLLECT TAXES...SO LOOK AT THE TIMING HERE... THEY'RE RECONFIRMING THAT THE TARIFFS WILL GO INTO EFFECT AUG 1 2015..."ACROSS ALL BORDERS".

Iran witnesses surprise fall in US dollar rates against rial, 17 JULY

Iran’s exchange market on Sunday witnessed an unprecedented appreciation of the Iranian rial against the US dollar in what many see as the result of an overwhelming positive speculation by the country’s businesses toward the outcomes of nuclear talks now underway in Lausanne, Switzerland.
Media reports say the exchange rate for the US dollar that was 35,700 rials two weeks ago has declined to as low as 31,800 rials at the end of the trading on Sunday. This marks a fall of around 11 percent.
The decline of the rate of the dollar against the rial has been recorded at 3 percent over the past 24 hours.   

The rate of euro against the rial has also been declining with reports saying that euro has seen a decline of 13 percent over the past 10 days.  
Meanwhile, many Iran exchange market activists have told the media that the appreciation of the rial against key foreign currencies is the result of a growing optimism toward the outcomes of nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1. 
Some also believe that this is the result of the satisfactory performance of the government of President Hassan Rouhani in controlling fluctuations in foreign exchange rates as well as the decrease in euro parity rate against the dollar.    
There are now reports that the Iranian market expects the exchange rate of the dollar to decline to as low as 30,000 rials and even below if Iran reaches a deal with P5+1 over its nuclear energy program.    
This comes as negotiators from Iran and the US are in the Swiss city of Lausanne for a fresh round of talks over remaining obstacles on the way of a final agreement on the Iranian nuclear energy program. The Iranian team is led by Foreign Minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif and the US team is led by Secretary of State John Kerry. 
Following the talks, Zarif will leave for Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, where he will hold separate talks on Iran’s nuclear energy case with his German, French and UK counterparts.
Both Iran and the US have already emphasized that their latest meetings have been positive. Not much has come out to the media regarding the exact agenda of the talks. Nevertheless, speculations suggest that the timetable for the lifting of the sanctions against Iran which is expected to unleash foreign investments into the country is a key theme in the talks. 
AA/AA       LINK

Why the Iran Deal Is a Good Option -- and a Christian One, 17 JULY

Why the Iran Deal Is a Good Option -- and a Christian One

Posted: 07/16/2015 9:40 am EDT Updated: 07/16/2015 9:59 am EDT
IRAN
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We have a deal. And many of us in the faith community are relieved.
After months of negotiations, missing deadlines, and many stressful final days in Vienna, Iran has agreed to halt its nuclear weapons program for a decade or more, and allow credible international agencies to significantly monitor its behavior. In return, sanctions against Iran will be lifted once it demonstrates compliance on its end. Meanwhile, the West is hopeful that a younger Iranian generation might begin to liberalize the country, prompting a fuller entry into the modern world over the next 10 years. That hope remains to be seen.
Many of us in the faith community have called for diplomacy instead of the only plausible alternative: war with Iran. Other options simply aren't possible. The other major world powers in the mix have made it clear they would not agree to harsher sanctions. Military strikes would only provoke more violence, terrorism, and war without solving the problem of Iran's nuclear escalation. Iran's nuclear weapons development would likely resume immediately without this deal, accelerated and entrenched by resulting military attacks on Iran.
In April, Sojourners organized a group of more than 50 Christian leaders in support of the Iran Framework Agreement in a statement titled "Hope, but Verify." We said any agreement must be based on the credible inspections and verifications -- which this final agreement seems to have. Skepticism about Iran's trustworthiness is justified, so the "verify" component is critical to those of us who ascribe to "Christian realism."
David Cortright, Director of Policy Studies at the University of Notre Dame's Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, provides a good summary of the facts of the deal:
The deal blocks Tehran's pathways to nuclear weapons capability. Iran's existing stockpile of enriched uranium will be largely eliminated. Iran will not produce any highly-enriched uranium suitable for weapons development. The number of centrifuges in operation will be reduced greatly. The reactor at Arak will be retooled so that it no longer produces weapons-grade plutonium. The breakout timeline for Iran to develop enough material for a nuclear weapon will be four times longer with a deal than without one.
Iran will be subject to the most intrusive inspections regime ever negotiated. Rigorous and unprecedented inspections will detect any Iranian attempt to renege on the deal. International inspectors will have access to all of Iran's nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency will receive assurances that there are no military dimensions of Iran's nuclear program.
The current regime of nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended only after the International Atomic Energy Agency verifies that Iran has taken necessary steps to curtail its nuclear program. Sanctions on missile development and arms imports will remain in place for several years. Sanctions on Iran will snap back into force if Iran reneges on its commitments. U.S. sanctions on human rights abuse and support for terrorism will remain in place.
Cortright concludes, "The deal isn't perfect, but it is very good. It achieves the priority goal of U.S. and international policy of reducing and placing tight controls on Iran's nuclear capability ... The choice is clear. Support the current nuclear deal or face a future of more proliferation and war."
Theologically, pursuing options that will prevent further war with more dangerous weapons is the right course of action in a highly imperfect world. Those who oppose deals like this often proclaim a binary world of simple good and evil, which we don't have -- and believing so is a dangerous illusion.
For example, most Americans think our relationship with Iran began with the hostage crisis in 1979. But how many Americans know the name of Mohammad Mosadegh, the democratically elected prime minister of Iran who was overthrown by the CIA in 1953? Or the subsequent United States-imposed brutal dictatorship of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who became the Shah of Iran, until he was overthrown by the Islamic Revolution in 1979, preceding the hostage crisis? Everybody in Iran knows that history.
Ours is a real world of competing geopolitical agendas, and so the limiting of violence and evil is a good strategy. This deal with Iran has the chance to do that, especially since the only real alternative to the deal is military action. Critics need to suggest a truly viable alternative, or be candid with the American people if military action is really the course they favor.
We should be under no illusion that Iran will instantly change its destructive and disruptive behavior because of this agreement. We must therefore insist that Iran cease funding armed groups throughout the Middle East, improve its human rights record, and end its hostility toward Israel. And we must strongly resist that bad behavior through focused diplomatic and economic pressure.
At the very least, the agreement deserves a full and fair hearing in Congress. Under the terms of legislation passed earlier this year, the House and Senate will have two months to review and vote to either support or reject the deal. President Obama will then act on the congressional vote, and says he will veto a rejection of the deal. I urge Christians to make their views known to their congressional representatives, particularly over the August recess.
We need to make it clear to our leaders that many Christians favor practical and pragmatic steps to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, not merely rhetorical flourishes that demonstrate at best a desire to oppose the Obama administration at any cost, or, at worst, a desire to go to another war. Continuing the military strategies that have failed for decades is not a good option. Giving serious diplomacy and international pressure a chance before contemplating military action is both a better strategic option and a more Christian one.
Jim Wallis is president of Sojourners. His book, The (Un)Common Good: How the Gospel Brings Hope to a World Divided, the updated and revised paperback version of On God's Side, is available now.