On the back of news that foreign investment into Zimbabwe fell 59% to a mere $67 million in the first half of this year, it has become a moot point that Zimbabwe needs to urgently create an environment conducive to boosting investment into that country.
Some have argued that the liquidity crunch this is causing is creating space for the reintroduction of the Zimbabwean dollar. I disagree.
The problem with this train of thought is that until the country’s underlying problems – including the lack of investor confidence – are dealt with, reintroducing the currency will not fix anything. All it will do is set the stage for a return of the hyperinflation that cost everybody so dearly.
That is not to say that things should stay as they are. Perhaps, rather than reintroducing the Zimbabwean dollar, policy makers should consider Zimbabwean economist Gilbert Muponda’s excellent suggestion and officially make the rand the only currency that gets used in Zimbabwe and that the US dollar, pound, pula and all the others that are now being used get removed from local circulation.
This would make sense as an interim measure on the road to restoring Zimbabwe’s financial sovereignty and when the time is right, which I believe it will be at some point, the Zimbabwean dollar can be reintroduced.
The rand would work better for Zimbabwe than the dollar or the pound as it is a fairly weak currency. This can be useful when you’re trying to build up exports and develop a domestic manufacturing base. Although South Africa is so much bigger than Zimbabwe, it shares many of the same developing-country characteristics.
I believe the reality is that Zimbabwe has everything required for a healthy economy. It just needs to be unlocked.
While its human and physical capital have been degraded, there is a rising corps of sensible, educated and pragmatic leaders who have what it takes to get things right again. And taking care of the business climate and the basics, such as the current cash shortage, is the right place to start.
Investors must again be made to feel welcome and given assistance and incentives where necessary. They also need to be given comfort that their investments will be safe and not susceptible to anything other than the normal vagaries of doing business.
I have argued before that I am especially bullish on Zimbabwe’s medium- to long-term prospects. I think that the country is an elephant about to stand up, a fact that is still escaping many, but not all, investors. But it needs help and the formal sector needs to grow – it is all well and good to have an enormous informal economy (some estimates have put this at 84% of all economic activity) and this may help stave off starvation for millions, but it doesn’t help the government raise the taxes it needs to rebuild the nation.
New businesses are needed as these are the conduit through which fresh money, ideas and technology can flow into the economy, creating new industrial capacity, pumping up liquidity and generally allowing things to normalise.
Zimbabwe has been growing since 2009, when it emerged from a decade of recession, but, according to Reuters data, still only 500 000 out of 13 million people are in formal employment.
The data show there is an enormous amount of unutilised industrial capacity, but what I have seen in my many trips there over the past few years is that much of this is simply unfit for purpose and needs to be rebuilt.
I am of course not alone in believing that opportunities exist north of the Limpopo. A giant chicken franchise has announced plans to “paint Zimbabwe red with KFC” with initial plans to open 25 stores. The company previously had stores in Harare and Bulawayo but quit the country in 2007 at the height of the crisis.
Without underestimating the impact of things like the liquidity crunch and the country’s problematic indigenisation and land reform policies on investor confidence, I am convinced that things are being done by the Zimbabwean government which will start rebuilding investor confidence.
To my mind there is ample evidence that those in charge of the country’s finances know what needs to be done and, within the bounds of their political and economic constraints, will do what needs to be done to get things right.
As KFC and other forward looking businesses, both in the consumer and industrial spaces, return to Zimbabwe, the country will start recovering, jobs will start being created and it will begin the long process of becoming again what it should always have been: a successful and prosperous country and a lucrative place for investors to ply their trade.
Andrew Robinson founded his first multinational consumer goods company by the time he was 30. He now focusses on investing in Africa’s emerging markets, primarily in the alcohol, beverages, food and pharmaceutical sectors. He is also the chairman of the Johannesburg Golden City chapter of the Young Presidents Organisation (YPO).LINK
MANY STILL DO NOT EVEN GET THE BIG PICTURE!!!!
THE WORLD HAS GONE AROUND THE USA WITH AIIB...........
THE IMF AND WORLD BANK DETOUR IS NOW LIVE!!!
THE CABAL BANKING SYSTEM HAS BEEN CIRCUMVENTED!!!!!
WHAT IS THE LAST HOLD CARD THE "NOT SO GOOD GUYS" HAVE THAT THEY HAVE BEEN HOLDING HOSTAGE...............................................(YOU SHOULD KNOW THE ANSWER TO THIS)
....
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is expecting to receive its third monthly budget payment of the year from Iraq’s federal government on Thursday.The expected transfer of $439 million represents the largest payment made under a cooperative oil export and revenue sharing agreement between the KRG and Baghdad, embedded in the 2015 budget law.The money had been expected earlier this week, but KRG Deputy Finance Minister Fazil Nabi said the money will now be delivered Thursday.
Susan > EXOGEN April 8, 2015 at 5:28pm Thanks, Exo! Their Thursday is in a matter of hours!!!
R.V./GCR April 8, 2015 Part of the peace treaty is falling together in front of your eyes… watch isreal, usa, iran, Iraq, Russia, 209 countries become asset backed.....rock n roll. Watch aiib
**********
EXOGEN April 8, 2015 at 9:26pm
NOW WE DO A RECAP BACK TO IMF COMMENTS IN JANUARY 2015, WHICH WAS PRIOR TO AIIB CIRCUMVENT AND....................
Christine LaGarde: "US Should Agree To Democratize The IMF-Or Get O...
Posted by ClassyONE on January 14, 2015 at 12:34pm
Posted Today, 02:02 PM
Christine LaGarde: "US Should Agree To Democratize The IMF-Or Get Out Of The Way"
1/14/2015
U.S. Should Agree to Democratize the IMF -- Or Get Out of the Way
Posted: 01/12/2015 5:47 pm EST Updated: 01/12/2015 5:59 pm EST
CHRISTINE LAGARDE
BEIJING -- As the U.S. Congress failed to incorporate the International Monetary Fund reform package of November 2010 into its budget legislation, the IMF quota and governance reforms are once again stalled.
Ms. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, indicated in a statement that the board would meet next month to weigh "alternative options" to the four-year-old reform plan and ensure that the IMF has adequate resources.
The IMF reforms are designed to reflect the increasing importance of emerging market countries and ensure that smaller developing countries will retain their influence in the IMF. According to the reform plan, 6 percent of the quota shares of developed countries will shift to emerging economies.
China's quota share will rise from the current 3.99 percent to 6.39 percent As a result, China will become the third largest shareholder after the United States and Japan. China's voting share will also increase from 3.65 percent to 6.07 percent and the other BRIC countries such as Russia, India and Brazil will all be in the top ten. The reforms are hailed as the "most fundamental reforms of governance" in the history of the IMF.
In spite of the fact that the United States won't lose its unique veto power in the institution, it still feels that its dominance in the IMF is at risk and therefore has adopted procrastination tactics in an attempt to drag the reform into limbo.
"In spite of the fact that the United States won't lose its unique veto power in the institution, it still feels that its dominance in the IMF is at risk."
In essence, the reforms have been crafted to democratize the IMF governance. Now, those sitting at the head of the IMF's table are either American allies, or its Western partners, whereas the developing countries are underrepresented as a whole. They do not have a say in the IMF decision-making process, or in protection of their fundamental interests.
Should the reforms be put into effect, things will change, emerging economies will gain a significant increase in weight, and some will sit at the "head table". Perhaps, the United States will feel uneasy about that prospect.
CAN THE U.S. STILL AFFORD THE IMF?
On the other hand, the United States may find that it is unaffordable to initiate the reform process. According to the reform plan, the United States needs to transfer 63 billion U.S. dollars as a quota increase out of 70 billion US dollars from IMF emergency funds, which it lent to the IMF. Some U.S. congressmen opposed to the reforms claim that, as the United States currently suffers from high fiscal deficits and budget cuts, it would be too costly for the U.S. to approve its quota increase.
In fact, this will only involve transferring the money from the United States' IMF account to another and will not increase the U.S. burden at all. The United States is very much concerned that if the reforms are set in operation, the future developments may get out of control.
As emerging economies' share of the world economy continues to rise, the West IMF shares may continuously be diluted in accordance with the IMF periodical realignment of quota shares. Sooner or later it may endanger the U.S. position as the largest shareholder of the IMF.
In addition, as the US' economy improves, its agenda priority has changed. It was when the U.S. urgently needed the help and support of the emerging economies at the peak of the World Financial Crisis that it actively promoted the IMF quota and governance reforms.
Now, with the quantitative easing coming to an end, and the return of some companies manufacturing to the United States, the economic recovery in the U.S. has gained a relatively solid foundation. In this circumstance, the quota expansion of countries with high foreign currency reserves in the IMF is no longer urgent.
There is growing discontent about the U.S.' chop and change approach. Fred Bergsten and Edwin M. Truman, senior fellows of Peterson Institute for International Economics, wrote to the Financial Times, calling for the IMF to move ahead without the United States.
If the United States does not want to participate in reforming the IMF, it should get out of the way.
"If the United States does not want to participate in reforming the IMF, it should get out of the way."
They proposed two options. One way would be to make permanent the 2012 initiative by Christine Lagarde to arrange temporary bilateral credit lines of nearly $500 billion from 38 countries, augmenting the Fund's capability to finance its lending.
The United States opposed that proposal, but the IMF and other countries could convert it into a permanent arrangement, placing decision making in the hands of the funding countries, not the United States.
A more radical approach would be to increase total country quota subscriptions in a manner that would also not allow the United States to stop the Fund from reforming its governance on its own.
More and more countries are fed up with the U.S. delay in approving the reform package. Some members of the IMF's steering committee indicated their desire to deprive the U.S. of its veto power on the IMF executive board.
The United States' reticence to endorse the IMF reform plan not only indicates its lack of confidence in its future growth and inward-looking inclination to focus on the problems at home, such as Obamacare, immigration, high unemployment, inflation, the national debt, among others.
But it also undermines its claim to global leadership and highlights its hypocrisy to use "responsibility" or a "leadership role" as a pretense to attack other countries and cast it away without hesitation if it offends America's interests.
Due to America dragging its feat, the failure to implement IMF reform plan has seriously affected public confidence in the IMF, making its representation, legitimacy and relevance questionable in the eyes of the international community.
Therefore, it is imperative that the IMF rapidly advance the reform plan.
The international community will closely follow the alternative reform options that the IMF produces January.
**********
EXOGEN April 8, 2015 at 9:30pm
China and other emerging economies, including BRICS, have long protested against their limited voice at global financial platforms, including the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank.
**********
EXOGEN April 8, 2015 at 9:30pm
The IMF reforms will hand more IMF voting powers to BRICS, a long-standing demand of the group and will also reduce the concentration of representative power of Western Europe at the IMF board.
The IMF quota reform calls for a 6 per cent shift in quota share to emerging economies. It will lift China, which still has less voting power than the Benelux countries ( Belgium, Holland and Luxemburg), to the third largest shareholder. Shares for Russia, India and Brazil will also see hefty rise.
The reforms, however, have been delayed for four years owing to a block by the US Congress as the US retains a veto. IMF chief Lagarde hinted at a “Plan B” in April if the US fails to endorse the reforms by year-end.
********
EXOGEN April 8, 2015 at 9:31pm
IMF chief Lagarde hinted at a “Plan B” in April if the US fails to endorse the reforms (IT IS NOW APRIL)
BRICS IS LIVE
AIIB BANK IS LIVE
AND THE IMF DISCUSSIONS WILL BE THE PLAN "B"
IN REFERENCE TO IMF REFORMS................
Posted by EXOGEN on April 8, 2015 at 9:02pm
http://www.imf.org/external/am/index.htm
Event 2015 Spring Meetings of World Bank and IMF The 2015 Spring Meetings of the World Bank Group (WBG) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will bring together thousands of government officials, journalists, civil society organizations, academia and the private sector. The IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee and the joint World Bank-IMF Development Committee will meet to discuss progress on the IMF's and the WBG's work. Seminars, regional briefings, press conferences and many other events focused on the global economy, international development and the world's financial markets will also be held.
dates: 17-19 April 2015 venue: World Bank Headquarters location: Washington D.C., US www: https://www.imf.org/external/am/index.htm
read more: http://sd.iisd.org/events/2015-spring-meetings-of-world-bank-and-imf/
Delta said the rate could come out
.85 to 1 collar and rise the next 2-3 years..is that possible? Any comment on that...thx.
Internationally.....NO WAY!!
when the DINAR WAS Trading before 2003 the the Exchange Rate Was Approx $3.30!!!!
It will reinstate NO LOWER Than That Rate