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DINARESGURUS.BLOGSPOT.COM_________________ _______

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

TNT TWEET & DINAR IRAQ & DONG VIETNAM UPDATE, 24 FEB

TNT Tony @THE_TNT_TEAM · The full budget is published. Get a good nights rest. It could happen at anytime. #wearethepeople

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DINAR IRAQ & DONG VIETNAM :ABADI IS TAKING CARE OF THE HCL — FINISHING THE AMENDMENTS ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA. IRAQ AND KURDISTAN HAS ACCEPTED WHAT HE HAS AMENDED. THE AGREEMENT THEY MADE IS APPLIED IN THE NEW AMENDMENTS. IT CONTAINS THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AS AGREED — GREAT NEWS. THE LAW WAS SENT TO PARLIAMENT AS IS EXPECTED TO BE VOTED THROUGH.
[Q. Do you think oil & gas law will be in parliament tomorrow (Tuesday)?]
A. THEY STATED THAT WHEN IT WAS READY THAT THEY WOULD BE HAVING AN EMERGENCY MEETING SO EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT ON THE AGENDA…– I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL.

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Iraq Financial Banking Sector
There are several positive things happening in the banking sector in Iraq. When the Iraqi banking sector eventually becomes stronger, that is when you will start to see an increase in the Iraqi dinar. When you see people have more confidence in the currency, they will deposit their money in the bank.
Budget Scenario
On Thursday, January 29, 2015, the Iraqi government finally passed the federal budget. In the budget, the Iraqi government has placed taxes on mobile phones, new cars, ticket airlines and tourism. The government is also going to have custom border taxes for goods and services. Iraq has a budget deficit of 25 trillion dinars (23 billion dollars). The Iraqi government thinking is that there will be able to cover the deficit with the taxes and custom border fees. I want to point to a potential problem with collecting taxes at the border entry points. The Islamic State controls the border entry points from Iraq to Jordan, Syria and Turkey. You also have to think about the organize crime and smuggling that often occur at the Iraq border crossings.
One thing for sure is that the Iraqi government will not be collecting any customs taxes at the northern border crossings as long as ISIS are in control. The taxes are supposed to cover 13% of the budget. The Iraq ministries that received 50% of the budget are the Interior, Defense, Oil, and Finance. The remaining Iraq ministries received little or no funds at all. It appears that the government will be unable to finance projects for the year.
Currency Exchange Rate
On February 1, 2015, the exchange rate on the market was 1235 IQD. The rate that the banks and the currency exchange stores are selling the Iraqi dinar to their customers. The next day the market rate increased again to 1250 IQD. Reading reports in the local Iraq media, the market exchange rate increased to 1260 IQD. The Iraqi parliamentary Economic Committee advised the Central Bank to limit the selling of the U.S. Dollars to 75 million. When the Central Bank limited dollars, it decreased the value of the Iraqi dinar. On the world market, the U.S. dollar has increased in value. It now takes more Iraqi dinar to purchase the hard currency (US Dollar) that everyone in Iraq in a time of crisis would like have in his or her pocket.
The Central Bank has recommended limiting the currency exchange auctions to 75 million dollars per day. This action is not a law. Both the Central Bank and the Parliament Economic Committee agreed to the stipulations. The Central Bank realizes that they have a serious problem with the smuggling of hard currency, which is causing capital flight. The hard currency is being smuggled to other regional countries most likely Syria and Iran. Both countries are under sanctions. In order to curtail the smuggling, the Iraqi government instituted a cap on the auction dollar sales.
The Parliament Economic Committee leader Najiba Najib, stated “The Central Bank has taken new measures that would provide cash to cover the shortfall in the budget in light of falling oil prices to below $50.”
Najib continued with: “These measures are working to reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar. And that the bank will maintain the exchange rate. The price of the dollar against the dinar will rise from what it is now.”
You can see that Najib Najiba carries a lot of power within the Parliament Economic Committee. I have told you this in the past, and Najiba will do everything to protect Iraq’s currency. Najiba is in frequent communications with the Central Bank and is following this very closely.
Inside the budget, Paragraph 50 has the instructions for the Central Bank to limit the sales of the dollar auctions. There will be no legal actions against the Parliament committee, and some people are saying.

S3A CHAT UPDATE & SCZIN11 & RANDY KOONCE UPDATE , 24 FEB

Just got off the phone with one of my contacts who has very high contact in Iraq and he was just told that tonight at 12pm EST it is scheduled to go.....as I always say, treat as rumor until it happens.....no hype, no fluff, just passing on info......hopefully it's right......JMO
Randy Koonce on detectives said after Iraq stops the auctions they have about ten days til they will scream uncle without the Rv!! We are getting close !! My device will not let me bring it over if someone else would!! Thanks
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2-24-15 sczin11: THE TARIFFS MAKE NO SENSE AT THEIR CURRENT LEVEL OF DINAR VALUE...WOULDNT PAY FOR THE PAPER THE BUDGET IS PRINTED ON. THEY MUST HAVE A TRUE VALUE, AND THEY HAVE COUNTED ON THE REVENUES FROM THESE TAXES TO REDUCE THEIR BUDGET DEFICIT.
THEY HAVE USED FORMULAS TO ESTIMATE THE REVENUE BASED ON THE NUMBER OF DAYS LEFT IN THE YEAR...BASED ON WHATEVER DATE THEY CHOSE TO IMPLEMENT, ACTIVATE, FUND THE BUDGET...THERE IS NO GOING BACKWARDS, AND THEY CANNOT ADD DAYS TO THE YEAR.

THE BUDGET ONLY GOOD FOR THE YEAR...POSTPONING WILL BANKRUPT THE COUNTRY...THEY WILL IMPLODE.  ...I FEEL THEIR PLAN IS IN PLAY.  THEY KNOW THE CBI MUST PROVIDE THE KEYS TO THE CAR...THEY HAVE NOT COME THIS FAR TO DERAIL!

2-24-15 
Randy KoonceAgain No one has cashed in. There are no #800 numbers no groups that you have to get in...Let me say where we are at this time... The pressure that was supposed to come in the 1st of February is just now getting there.

1st pressure point is the budget passed and being posted in the Gazette...(this also enacted the tariff laws article 33 which was in the budget. They need an weighted currency that is international to use the tariffs... every time they were going to start the tariffs they just moved them... well the budget being passed prevents Iraq from moving the date... it still has not set the date.

2nd pressure which is very big is the auctions have been stopped. (So the only way for Iraq to generate money is Auctions or Bonds and they cannot do the bonds until they have a currency above 0). From Last Sunday Iraq can go about 10 days without having the auctions or Bonds...can they restart the auction, yes...but why stop them just to restart them...so this is another pressure point.

3rd is the banks are not getting the large bills for the last 2 weeks.. So this tells us all is ready to change the rate...and the question is will they do it.

4th the salaries for Iraq to be paid. The finance minister wants to pay salaries they cannot do that without a rate change. So the next few days are very big and tremendous pressure...So if Obama agrees that Iraq needs this done, we are out.  Can something go wrong, yes but given everything that is going on we know this should be over very soon...the Auctions give us the timeline.
If they get 10 days, each day after that would be tremendous pressure until they do it...And if they start the auctions up again.. We will have to wait longer. Pray very hard that they do not start the auctions. We are close. Every large bank will exchange...Breathe.

Check www.cbi.iq every day to see if it has changed... do not take a guru or a post about in country RV or any thing else do not be fooled just check the CBI.

Do not let your emotions get to you.

BREATHE BREATHE......... Yes I will do a meeting after the RV...... do not worry I will send out email.....

S3A CHAT UPDATE : ALL EYES ON THE ZIM RIGHT NOW, 24 FEB

Stage3Alpha:
Springs Hmm...All eyes on the ZIM right now.

AWH Sounds to me like Zimbabwe may be doing their version of a RI in country, and we wait for the GCR/RV.  No Rules

Prime > But the ROI is still going to be in your favor or whoevers favor if/when the Zim exchanges.

R.V. / GCR Timeline For The Global Currency Reset: http://youtu.be/UCOUIAQ5UNU

Kilo15 February 24, 2015 at 3:32pm  2-24-15 Millionday: ABADI IS TAKING CARE OF THE HCL -- FINISHING THE AMENDMENTS ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA.

IRAQ AND KURDISTAN HAS ACCEPTED WHAT HE HAS AMENDED.
....
THE AGREEMENT THEY MADE IS APPLIED IN THE NEW AMENDMENTS. IT CONTAINS THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AS AGREED -- GREAT NEWS.

 THE LAW WAS SENT TO PARLIAMENT AS IS EXPECTED TO BE VOTED THROUGH.

[Do you think oil & gas law will be in parliament tomorrow (Tuesday)?]

THEY STATED THAT WHEN IT WAS READY THAT THEY WOULD BE HAVING AN EMERGENCY MEETING SO EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT ON THE AGENDA...-- I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL.

[Did we get confirmation that the rest of the budget got into the Gazette?]

YES THEY ANNOUNCED THAT THE ENTIRE BUDGET HAS BEEN PRINTED --- ACCORDING TO A COUPLE REPORTS...SO ACCORDING TO THEM IT HAS AND IS TO BE ACTIVATED NOW AND DISTRIBUTIONS WILL BEGIN THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.

[If the whole budget has been placed in the Gazette, doesn't that mean that the CBI has to fund it in the next 24 hours?]

NO IT MEANS THAT THEY WILL BEGIN AND THEY HAVE STATED THAT THEY ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.

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Imagist > Don I am not challenging you or Millionday. Both of you know more than me.

All I am just saying I cannot find it. None of the links I have found show the second chapter. I believe they feel this gives them the right to stall.

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Don > Imagist Think of it this way, they are holding their cards tightly to their chest. They are wrapping up last minute details in Parliament today.

They have already put the full Budget into the Gazette but have not released it to anyone else on the 2nd portion for the Public. It's a timing issue.

When they are ready to release the rates, the Public portion will become known. They don't want to give anything away until they are ready to reveal.

Security concerns are paramount here.

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RodjiW > Don +1 infinity!!! Very well said, my good man! :)   Plus, you don't want the whole world to know what's happening! It's like protecting ANY "investment". It's just good business sense...  :))

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R&R February 24, 2015  A PRETTY GOOD DESCRIPTION (IMO) OF HOW THE ZIM DEMONETIZATION IS/WAS SUPPOSED TO WORK

(This was written on July 25, 1014 by printed in The Zimbabwe Mail. If accurate, it is stated that the former CBZ Governor's original plan, per a speech he had given in Nov./Dec. 2008, was a 12-zero lop with a set exchange of US$1.00 to 20 Zimbabwe dollars. If so, then it would seem that rate in the article today of US$1.00 to 35,000 ZIM would be a 9-zero lop? Thoughts?)

Here's the part I am referring to from the piece. He writes in part (d) of his "open letter" to the Finance Minster, Patrick Chinamasa:

"If my memory serves me right, the then governor of the Reserve Bank in his monetary policy statement in November/December 2008, after slashing twelve zeros (trillions) for the last time, set  Official Exchange rates of, 2 Z$s to 1 South African Rand(SAR) and 20 Z$s to 1 United States Dollar(US$). This was at a time when they were numerous parallel (black) markets exchange rates, which were not only generally large, but were also highly volatile and could change at an instant."

FULL LINK TO ARTICLE:  http://www.thezimmail.co.zw/2014/07/25/demonetisation-of-the-zim-dollar/

For good measure, here's another article written in December 2014 regrding the delay in implemetating the demonetization and compensating Zimbabweans with U.S. dollars.

LINK:   http://www.financialgazette.co.zw/zim-dollar-demonetisation-still-outstanding/

TLAR DISCUSSION CHAT : CBI SHORTAGE OF FOREIGN CURRENCY, 24 FEB

RXXXX:  Thanks, Yota.

 Experts: Central Bank Faces The Problem Of The Shortage Of Foreign Currency And Claiming To Reassure Customers       BAGHDAD / Ghazanfar Laibi - Amer supporter

Experts in economic affairs said that Iraqi banks began to suffer a shortage of liquidity in foreign currency (dollar), while the expected rise in the dollar's exchange rate against the devaluation of the dinar as a result of stopping the auction currency, grumbling banking customers of non-receipt of money deposited by the dollar, stressing that handed over the money Dinars expose them to significant losses.

 The expert in economic affairs Ahmed Fahmy in an interview for the "long" "The decision to stop the currency auction can be exploited in a positive way by the Central Bank and the Iraqi government,"

 noting that "the implementation of the resolution correctly is not easy, because we must limit the dollar and not to take it out of the market and thus strengthen the Iraqi dinar. "

Fahmi added by saying that "the central bank's decision can be applied correctly in case of spending pressure and reduce the affidavits and incidentals are not to the dollar significantly."
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He pointed out that "the Central Bank to develop appropriate plans for the success of the decision," but he also said that "to stop the auction may have significant disadvantages,

due to increased demand for the dollar, because the bank had pumped $ 50 million a day in the auction, which may make the dollar rises against the price of the dinar, which leads to the Iraqi currency affected significantly. "

 He Fahmi said that "the main objective of this step is to limit the hard currency by the central bank, especially after twice the price of the dinar during the past few days," expected to "decline the central bank for its decision in the case of the Iraqi economy negatively affected due to stop the auction of the currency."

In the same vein, said an expert on economic affairs Maytham Laibi "long", that "the banks to take such measures in emergency situations when facing a shortage of liquidity in foreign currencies," noting that "the Iraqi banks started having these problems because of the reduction of central bank sales of the dollar

 He also added that "the lack of distribution of financial dollar amounts have negative effects on customers and lead to an imbalance in the banking system, and weakens the confidence of individuals in the banking system and generates a panic, and lead to significant financial withdrawals,

so the reserves become inadequate, especially since these banks operating funds of others do not owns that money, which leads to market instability, in addition to a state of non-confidence in the banks leads to citizens not to deposit their money in banks in the future. "

He called Laibi banks dealing in foreign currency to be "assured its customers, it can Tkst amounts customers, and that the money owed by banks and found that the Ptksatha possible for customers."

For his part, sees expert Ahmad Atwani told the "term" that "sudden decision carries a lot of risk to the Iraqi citizens and the economy in general," noting that "the central bank issued a decision on the pretext of its limited foreign exchange to finance foreign trade."

 He Atwani said that "the decision was made to shift from exchange rate policy directed to a free exchange rate policy," stressing that "the new policy adopted by the Central does not fit in with the nature of the stage through which the Iraqi economy,

because domestic demand for foreign currency (dollar) growing in the local market. " He pointed out that "demand for the dollar will appear in the parallel market for foreign currency,

so the increase in cases of speculation and lead to a large fluctuation in the value of the Iraqi dinar, and the transition from the state of stability in the local currency, and this volatility will impact on the low standard of living of individuals through high commodity prices and services. "

 The expert continued that "the decision to stop the currency market will create a huge gap between the prices of locally produced goods and imported goods prices, the central bank will not succeed in implementing the decision in a positive way,

 but if used in a strict policy controls on foreign exchange." In turn, Mohammed al-Hassani said, one dealing with the North Bank "The bank refused to hand over the money in dollars for clients with the bank for the second day in a row on the grounds that the bank no longer receives (the dollar) from the Central Bank of Iraq,"

noting that "a trader with a bank that has deposited his money dollar would be a great loss teams currency received his money when the Iraqi dinar. "

 He added by saying that "the ordinary citizen is the biggest aggrieved of this process," calling on the central bank and the specialized agencies to "reverse the decision to cancel the auction currency because of its negative effects on the Iraqi market and citizens."

 The Central Bank of Iraq (February 21, 2015) stop working ERA Bank and the adoption of the banking system as being responsible for foreign remittances.

 The governor of the Central Bank of the relationship, in a press statement "was finalized a new formula and leave the old ways, coupled with certain conditions can not remain governor at the central bank,

which has the functions and tasks and activities of a large and important for the national economy," noting that it is not true that remains central busily selling the currency like ATM daily basis. "

 http://www.almadapaper.net/ar/news/482388/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1--%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D9%83-

KJWayne I think I like what they are saying . Now if they will just go ahead and increase the value of their Dinar, we could all be happy. :

Mally      Thanks RXXXX.  Kinda reaffirms what Im thinking, or at least hoping for.  That is they are changing their economy completely but are in limbo right now inbetween two totally different policies.

"the new policy adopted by the Central does not fit in with the nature of the stage through which the Iraqi economy, because domestic demand for foreign currency (dollar) growing in the local market.

 In order to reduce the dollar demand they need to make the dinar fully convertible right?  Move to art 8.  Everything they are doing is screaming this to me yet here we sit in limbo.  It doesnt seem like they can stay here in limbo long though.

Jdinar    and so it begins...the CBI better bring in more dinar ( hopefully, lower denoms to be specific ) to circumvent this new free exchange policy or it's going to get ugly without the auctions.  thanks rxxxx

Rockstar              Nice article RXXXX just more confirmation of what we need to see. This shows they are going to have to do something and my guess is release the lower denoms with a much greater value imo.

Schiz  Excellent art, cheers RXXXXX.............cbi are clearly waiting for something, I know I harp on alot about this but I can't help but think it's security, ie isis still in mosul!

I thin k were in limbo waiting for that to get resolved. the cbi are stuck between a rock and a hard place. They got the government forcing them to act but at the same time holding them back from acting.

Bout time this offensive got going!

HandOverFist     I agree.  I think you're right, Schiz.

Rockstar     Schiz I heard from the grapevine that ISIS left Mosul yesterday...lol... They heard we are coming for them and they hightailed it out of there...ok one can only hope right! One way or another something has to give shortly they won't be able to go on without the auctions very long imo.

They are going to have to raise the value and release the lower denoms or come March 1st they will have to delay the tariffs again and my guess is start up the auctions again...however that's just my guess and I could very well be wrong.

RXXXX  I don't know that they can wait that long now, bro. 24 hours and it's already chaos. They are either gonna have to reinstate the auctions or make the big move or people are gonna burn the CBI down.

Rockstar     I agree with you Rxxxxx and who knows someone said there would a lot of chaos right before they pulled the trigger..

Rxxxx     That would just be a total failure to reinstate the auctions just a few days after canceling them, and would engender all kinds of skepticism in their competence. I put it in my post, too, because that's what this guy is suggesting, but surely CBI knew this would be the reaction. Heck, we predicted it would be like this, and we're not even professionals at this.

HandOverFist     So what do you think, Rxxxx?  Float?  Small increase, then float?  Big increase, then float?   Looks like something will happen fast.

Nwa  I think its been in print all along,

“14. The de facto fixed exchange rate has served Iraq well. The authorities agreed that a stable nominal exchange rate provides a valuable anchor for inflation expectations in an uncertain environment, and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future.

In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy.

Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13217.pdf

mike      That sure didn't take long, this is the second day of the new process and things are already messed up. Schiz, I don't think they can wait until ISIL is out of Mosul, Abadi is stating the offensive will start in April or May. Mally said it best, add value and move to article VIII, then Iraq won't need the dollar.

HandOverFist    NWA,   You must be Kaperoni, in disguise.  :lol:

hi-five      Looks to me like they are moving to a single currency system.  Dollars are drying up.  Customers are going to panic if something doesn't change soon to add value to the dinar.

Rxxxx     I plead da Fifth.

Renee   Agreed hi-five!  And that is what makes this article SOOO exciting!

High-Five   NWA,  My interpretation:  Such flexibility could allow a predictable ( one dinar equal to one dollar which would dedollarize) and gradual ( managed float) appreciation of the nominal exchange rate

Livefree     Thanks hi-five.  Glad to see you look at the glass half full

Aaanth    Rxxxx you pleaded the 5th?  so is that the 5th of March?  you're predicting it's all gonna happen on the 5th.  great Rev!!.  thank's, man, i needed a date to get me through this unexpected (seriously?

 no one expected it to go crazy for a short time?) crazyness!  CBI ain't backing off.  they wouldn't have pulled this trigger arbitrarily without preperations for just such a response from the people and eveyone who is used to the old.  new moves are alwyas resisted until they're shown to be best in the long run.

 that just haven't had a chance to show that yet.  the RV or whatever acronym you want to use for it will show that.  then everyone will tout the CBI as brillient!

don't think ISIS has anything to do with it.  if it did we wouldn't be seeing this "New Policy" at this time.  It's pretty obvious who is in control of Iraq's money now...  JMO

Rxxxx     No, aaanth. The Fifth. Ya know, the Fifth Amendment. I am exercising my right to remain silent on how it comes out because I am one of those guys who doesn't necessarily agree with the conventional CC wisdom and I don't want to have that debate during such a happy time. Whatever is going to happen, I think it's gonna happen quickly and that's all I care about.

Aaanth   Rxxxx,  what you said brother!!

Tlar   Iraq, as one of Shabibi's main goals was to get people using the banks again through this process.  This is turning into an abortion and if they want the Iraqi's to trust banks again, they better not drag this out.  This cannot continue for days or the people will go nuts.

I don't know what the holdup is but they better do it in the next couple of days or like Rxxxx suggested, reverse everything and re-start the auctions immediately.

Like I said in another post today, they can't stay where they are.  They need to pull the trigger now before people loose total trust in the banks again and all the goodwill they have been attempting to install in the population is destroyed.  Rxxxx, on this issue we see eye to eye.  tlar

Rockstar    Hey I said it before Rxxxx...where's my cudos...lol...but yes absolutely here's hoping for a change by the end of the week! Sorry I believe 1000% that they will NOT do a free float from 1166 IMO!!!

Livefree     tlar, I see more and more dinar holders leaning towards a float from 1166, do you still hold to your position that it will NOT float?  And what is your opinion on the rate, has it changed from $3+?  I accept that it's your opinion only (unless you have some solid info you'd like to share)

Rxxxx    Rockstar,    That's cool, man, and cudos.

Tlar      Yes, sorry Rockstar.  Cudos to you too.  Livefree, my thoughts on the staging rate has never changed.  I think it will be a managed float from a staged rate.

That is what the 2008 Stategic Study suggested to the CBI as part of their summary.  I believe the Study is what they are following but that the rate suggested in it has been modified to fit the new facts on the economy and changes since 2008.  tlar
Flyboy   Group...at this point going back is not an option...jmo. Too much water under the bridge...

the CBI, the GOI... and most of all Abadi got skin in this move... One other point...I got a call today from a very wealthy friend...well connected ...in state governmentt. 

He told me that the former governor of his state ask him today if he had dinar or did he know about it...My friend said he did...the former governor replied, "you are three times richer today than you were yesterday" 

Now..this is the first and only time I have or will offer a rumor... Take it or leave it...I cannot prove it nor will I offer the names. I just hope it is true..

HandOverFist  Flyboy,  Gosh, 3 times richer is not very much, Flyboy.  That's 3 times our money, if I'm understanding correctly

Livefree   Thanks tlar.  I know there are a lot of people of both sides of the fence, hoping you're correct but even if it were to float I don't think it will take too long before it hits a decent enough rate for us to exchange, unless of course they put a time limit on it.  

That brings up a good question, have you heard of any time limit to exchange for those outside of Iraq?  Thank you in advance.

And Flyboy I'm a little concerned about the three times richer.  I hope I have more than tripled my investment (though still not a bad return) as most of us here are looking for a life changing event.  

Are you able to expand further? not asking for names as that's not important, would just like clarification on the three times richer part...

Flyboy     Thanks guys...It was my understanding...$3.00 per dinar...Sorry, after reading my post back I can see how it was confusing This person is very well respected and very well connected...Apparently to Ex-Gov has a fist full of dinar as well...So, we wait and hope...!

LiveFree    Thanks Flyboy for clarifying.  I'm sure we'll all sleep better tonight :D  I see you're in AZ, me too, so is Rocko and jeff19!  Shhh, don't tell the rest what great weather we've been having (except for today, windy and now raining but the rest of the week should be in the 70's:)

NWA   LiveFree,   A managed float has daily limits and not what we want. In this case, faster is better. RV, free float or whatever gets the job done. I do not want to watch Iraq for another few years.

JDinar   Hi- five,  I think I have read this 20 times in the past, and I could be wrong, but I always thought the nominal exchange rate will be the managed float ( gradually appreciating ) AFTER the real exchange rate ( meaning the rate they start at, i.e., $.87, $1.00, $3+ or whatever that will be ).

The key word to me is "accomodate" or in other words assist, aid, or help. 2 things going on in that IMF report.

IMO, they are suggesting a real exchange rate accomodated by the gradual managed float....We are basically saying the same thing just difference in how they say it.

Now we know they have 500+ billion oil reserves just in the south alone and with all the gold and so much more. Plenty of future money to fund that budget and secure the CBI reserves as long as the Abadi ship keeps sailing.

Rockstar     Exactly Jdinar I agree with your synopsis, thanks!   Flyboy thank you for that nugget of info, I really like hearing these from people who never post them as it seems more credible to me! Thank you so much everyone for another amazing discussion here!!!

Schiz   NWA,  Thanks for sharing this, I especially like this part and it confirms to me 100% they are not going to free float :D

"could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate" A free float is not a predictable event :)

I'm not going to get started on how a free float from 1166 is impossible!

Schiz   high-five, NWA,   There we go :)   Free float – unpredictable    Managed float - predictable

Selah even came out years ago and said they were going to have a managed float :) (can't find the art now)

MILLIONDAY, TERRYK & TLAR UPDATE, 24 FEB

2-24-15 Millionday: ABADI IS TAKING CARE OF THE HCL -- FINISHING THE AMENDMENTS ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA.   IRAQ AND KURDISTAN HAS ACCEPTED WHAT HE HAS AMENDED. THE AGREEMENT THEY MADE IS APPLIED IN THE NEW AMENDMENTS. IT CONTAINS THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AS AGREED -- GREAT NEWS. THE LAW WAS SENT TO PARLIAMENT AS IS EXPECTED TO BE VOTED THROUGH.[Do you think oil & gas law will be in parliament tomorrow (Tuesday)?] THEY STATED THAT WHEN IT WAS READY THAT THEY WOULD BE HAVING AN EMERGENCY MEETING SO EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT ON THE AGENDA...-- I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL. 

[Did we get confirmation that the rest of the budget got into the Gazette?YES THEY ANNOUNCED THAT THE ENTIRE BUDGET HAS BEEN PRINTED --- ACCORDING TO A COUPLE REPORTS...SO ACCORDING TO THEM IT HAS AND IS TO BE ACTIVATED NOW AND DISTRIBUTIONS WILL BEGIN THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.
[If the whole budget has been placed in the Gazette, doesn't that mean that the CBI has to fund it in the next 24 hours?] NO IT MEANS THAT THEY WILL BEGIN AND THEY HAVE STATED THAT THEY ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK. 


2-24-15 TerryK: TALKED TO TWO SOURCES THIS AM AND THEY ARE BOTH TELLING ME ANY TIME. 


2-24-15 Tlar: Article quote: "Mostafa Hashemi raised the issue of a study on Iraq's accession to Vta agreement...discussing the Ministry of Finance this issue with the government banks and the taxes and insurance companies."  known "Alvta" which is an acronym for Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act as measures limiting evade US citizens from paying taxes to the government..."

I wonder if the fact that Iraq has not signed off yet to FACTA that this might be a reason to hold them up until they do? Is the US muscling them into signing by not letting them finish their conversion until they do?To our treasury department, this is a very important issue because of all the tax it stands to collect from this unique, one time event.
There is only one way that the Treasury can be assured of getting a handle on this and that is to get a complete accounting of any US citizen attempting to cash in Iraq by opening an account. Just a coincident that these two events, Iraq looking as if their stalled in their transition and the FACTA issue being brought up at this time. Might these things be connected? 

BLC DISCUSSION CHAT, 24 FEB

BLC Admins tlm724 and Shredd Chat 02/24/2015

This article is again a composition of experts opinions and it gives us a real sense of the what is going on in the streets and also a lil peek into what the CBI may have in mind for their ongoing currency reform, more of the curtain being lifted Wink

Experts: Central Bank faces the problem of the shortage of foreign currency and claiming to reassure customers

LINK

[tlm724] that Iraqi banks began to suffer a shortage of liquidity in foreign currency (dollar)

[tlm724] banks are short on dollars   

[tlm724] while the expected rise in the dollar's exchange rate against the devaluation of the dinar as a result of stopping the auction currency

[tlm724] the value of the dinar is going in the wrong direction because the CBI stopped pumping the dollar but thats okay   
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[tlm724] grumbling banking customers of non-receipt of money deposited by the dollar, stressing that handed over the money Dinars expose them to significant losses

[tlm724] the people depositied dollars and when they make a withdraw they are getting dinars because of the shortage of green backs

[tlm724] "The decision to stop the currency auction can be exploited in a positive way by the Central Bank

[tlm724] ah ha yes it can ! if done correctly and I believe it is  

[tlm724] because we must limit the dollar and not to take it out of the market and thus strengthen the Iraqi dinar.

[tlm724] but that is not ^^^ what the CBI is doing to strengthen the dinar, I'll explain in a few moments

[tlm724] "the main objective of this step is to limit the hard currency by the central bank, especially after twice the price of the dinar during the past few days," expected to "decline the central bank for its decision in the case of the Iraqi economy negatively affected due to stop the auction of the currency.

[tlm724] yep this decision has hurt the economy BUT it is necessary for the currency reform to go forward ! It is a temporary situation that will correct itself in very short order.

The people are freaking out because they do not know the full extent of what is going on, all they know is that they want dollars not dinars. They do not see the whole picture as we do  Wink

[tlm724] weakens the confidence of individuals in the banking system and generates a panic, and lead to significant financial withdrawals,

[tlm724] that's a run on the banks think about the movie it's a wonderful life and Jimmy Stewart trying to make everyone happy

[Shredd] really spells out what I've been thinking and saying the results of this move would be without any change to the dinar

[Shredd] if the dinar value stays where it is, the problem will only get worse, people wanting the dollar but the banks are saying no because they need to keep reserves too

[tlm724] exactly Shredd the dollar was their safety net and now they don't have that, this action is a beautiful thing for us even though they are upset now they won't be for long

[Shredd] this issue is inflationary and expected

[Shredd] we should see a response from the CBIsoon and I mean very soon

[Shredd] I can't believe the CBI is surprised at all by the effects of their decision, they have a plan

[tlm724] yes agreed Shredd they will have to address the people as I stated they have no clue what is going on

[Shredd] right I knew this would escalate in the matter of days

[tlm724] that "sudden decision carries a lot of risk to the Iraqi citizens and the economy in general

[tlm724] the central bank issued a decision on the pretext of its limited foreign exchange to finance foreign trade.

[Shredd] the IMF wants Iraq to get out of their dual currency situation and this will force a change

[tlm724] yep CBI paying for the imports and trade via the banking system

[tlm724] yes Shredd

[tlm724] "the decision was made to shift from exchange rate policy directed to a free exchange rate policy,

[Shredd] the next part gives us a hint imo

[tlm724] that right there^^^^there is the float
 

[Shredd] yup'

[tlm724] now let me just take a moment to put things in perspective for everyone

[tlm724] lets say Iraq floats the exchange rate, then the value of the currency will depend on the world market demand for the currency

[tlm724] it will be traded in an open money market in which any person/government/entity can buy the currency

[tlm724] If they don't float the dinar then they have to maintain a surplus of cash in order to account for the fluctuation in the currency's value

[tlm724] as Shredd pointed out this goes against the monetary requirements of the IMF

[tlm724] and it also ties up money that could otherwise be productively invested in another part of the economy and it frees up the monetary policy to manage things like inflation and interest rates allowing the CBI to operate like a central bank instead of an ATM machine pumping out dollars  

[Shredd] if they float from the current level, and we are seeing the supply of the dollar drying up before our eyes, the iraqis will be forced to use the dinar.

Supply of the large 000 dinar notes will be needed from a transactional and carry purpose. So, the newly updated dinar with stronger security measures will have to be released.

[Shredd] now, if the exchange rate has an initial adjustment in value, it may force the middle denoms to be released/higher volume circulated

[Shredd] the good news is we should see what the cbi's next move is really soon..........they have to

[tlm724] Shredd yes the supply will definately need to be replenished and the float theory here could be a partially managed float, allowing control by the CBI but which ever way they decide it is all good news and they must act NOW in this transistion !

[Shredd] it's so tempting to consider the move to a buck then float from there it still has merit but no proof pure opinion 

[tlm724] well that would be the best case scenerio for us Shredd because anymore than that would send us packing   
Shredd] the guru speak of saying "hold on, this ride is about to get crazy" kinda applies now    

[Shredd] tlm724 right.........so let's speculate a bit shall we

[tlm724] so letting it float whether managed or free in the beginning does not matter to me, I'll take it anyway I can get it, I'm that way ya know lol 

[Shredd] based on supply of dinar notes alone, the value of the dinar today is artificially held down, I think we can all agree on that

[Shredd] secondly, since we see the supply of the dollar is already being restricted, the only option for the Iraqis is the dinar and I think we can all agree on that too

[Shredd] third, the ease of carry for the dinar is stupid, very impractical due to the low value

[tlm724] Shredd and the only way the Iraqi's will use the dinar is to make it attractive and don't give them another option !

[Shredd] and we also know that part of the motivation for this move by the CBI is for the project to REMOVE the large 3 zero notes

[tlm724] you can't bring out a 25 fil coin that is worth say .00000003 

[Shredd] that's right timmy

[Shredd] so, if the intent is to remove the big dinar notes and by the way, the current dinar supply has been reduced significantly over the past several years,..... so, if the intent is to remove the large notes, and they have the fils (coins) and small denoms printed

[tlm724] and a third of what is out there is trash and has to be burned 

[Shredd] one can safely ascertain that those notes are the dinar supply the CBI intents to circulate, none of that can happen without a stronger rate to the dinar

[Shredd] tlm724 exactly, the CBI is in a corner now, but again, I doubt they are surprised by the effect of their move to stop the auctions and like I said in our last chat, 

the remittances program for emerging market countries like Iraq have seen greater success under a flexible exchange rate regime and one of the reasons stated was due to what we are seeing now

[tlm724] Shredd this a very exciting time in our investment ! What we are witnessing is the currency reform before our eyes, all this time we knew very little as to their intentions and now it is evident that indeed a float is intended and I could not be more excited ! 

There is very little time for the CBI to take corrective action and we will see that announcement anytime now IMO !

[Shredd] so, this is very interesting and we should see some action soon

[Shredd] amen

[tlm724] Shredd amen brother !

[Shredd] agreed and say they do nothing with the dinar.....economic crisis and meltdown. the CBI won't allow that to happen.

[tlm724] they sure won't be bringing back the auction that horse has left the barn ! Out with the old ways so says the CBI, it's a whole new day for Iraq ! 

[Shredd] "The bank refused to hand over the money in dollars for clients with the bank for the second day in a row on the grounds that the bank no longer receives (the dollar) from the Central Bank of Iraq," noting that "a trader with a bank that has deposited his money dollar would be a great loss teams currency received his money when the Iraqi dinar. "

[Shredd] dollar restriction. option? Dinar

[tlm724] apparently their only option

[Shredd] I would agree

[tlm724] perfect storm if ya ask me, short term hurt for long term gains !

DINAR GURUS UPDATE, 24 FEB

2-24-2015 Dinar Guru News Flash *** UPDATE *** The gurus are reporting a partial 2015 budget was published in the gazette yesterday (part of it was held back in secret) AND the CBI did stop currency auctions.  Both MAJOR moves.  As you see in the Dinar Guru Resource Bar on the left of this page...the official CBI rate has not changed.  The gurus are not clear what the full ramifications of these major changes will be or how they will publish the remainder of the budget...stay tuned as these super exciting stories unfold!  

2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Tlar  Article quote:  "Mostafa Hashemi raised the issue of a study on Iraq's accession to Vta agreement...discussing the Ministry of Finance this issue with the government banks and the taxes and insurance companies."  known "Alvta" which is an acronym for Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act as measures limiting evade US citizens from paying taxes to the government...I wonder if the fact that Iraq has not signed off yet to FACTA that this might be a reason to hold them up until they do?   Is the US muscling them into signing by not letting them finish their conversion until they do?  To our treasury department, this is a very important issue because of all the tax it stands to collect from this unique, one time event.  There is only one way that the Treasury can be assured of getting a handle on this and that is to get a complete accounting of any US citizen attempting to cash in Iraq by opening an account.   Just a coincident that these two events, Iraq looking as if their stalled in their transition and the FACTA issue being brought up at this time.   Might these things be connected? 

2-24-2015   Intel/Newshound Guru tman23
   Article quote: "{Baghdad: Euphrates News} central bank, announced Tuesday, to stop work and currency auction system"...AND...begins remittance system...THIS IS THE WHISPER OF INTERNATIONAL!

2-24-2015   Intel Guru TerryK
   TALKED TO TWO SOURCES THIS AM AND THEY ARE BOTH TELLING ME ANY TIME. 

2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Millionday
   [Did we get confirmation that the rest of the budget got into the Gazette?]   YES THEY ANNOUNCED THAT THE ENTIRE BUDGET HAS BEEN PRINTED --- ACCORDING TO A COUPLE REPORTS...SO ACCORDING TO THEM IT HAS AND IS TO BE ACTIVATED NOW AND DISTRIBUTIONS WILL BEGIN THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.  [ if the whole budget has been placed in the Gazette, doesn't that mean that the CBI has to fund it in the next 24 hours?]   NO IT MEANS THAT THEY WILL BEGIN AND THEY HAVE STATED THAT THEY ARE AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK.

2-24-2015   Newshound/Intel Guru BGG
   to address...ISIS being some "hold-up" - my info and sense might lead me to the exact opposite conclusion - ISIS may well be a "catalyst factor" to a more immediate RV...  further - I am suspicious the budget has been "slow walked" because they just don't have the $$...some time ago I mentioned they had applied for loans everywhere - knowing this was coming. It may be they haven't gotten the support they need to "cover" (which I'm thinking is the case) and had to "slow the process"...

2-24-2015  Newshound Guru Millionday 
  ABADI IS TAKING CARE OF THE HCL -- FINISHING THE AMENDMENTS ACCORDING TO THE MEDIA.   IRAQ AND KURDISTAN HAS ACCEPTED WHAT HE HAS AMENDED.  THE AGREEMENT THEY MADE IS APPLIED IN THE NEW AMENDMENTS.  IT CONTAINS THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH AS AGREED -- GREAT NEWS.   THE LAW WAS SENT TO PARLIAMENT AS IS EXPECTED TO BE VOTED THROUGH [do you think oil & gas law will be in parliament tomorrow (Tuesday)?]  THEY STATED THAT WHEN IT WAS READY THAT THEY WOULD BE HAVING AN EMERGENCY MEETING SO EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT ON THE AGENDA...-- I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL.

2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Chattels
   yesterday much was made of the HCL being "done".   It is NOT done.  It may get done, but there is work remaining.
2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Tlar
   ...if they want the Iraqi's to trust banks again, they better not drag this out.  This cannot continue for days ...I don't know what the holdup is but they better do it in the next couple of days or...reverse everything and re-start the auctions immediately...they can't stay where they are.  They need to pull the trigger now before people loose total trust in the banks again and all the goodwill they have been attempting to install in the population is destroyed.  ...my thoughts on the staging rate has never changed.  I think it will be a managed float from a staged rate.  That is what the 2008 Stategic Study suggested to the CBI as part of their summary.  I believe the Study is what they are following but that the rate suggested in it has been modified to fit the new facts on the economy and changes since 2008.   

2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Enorrste
   Furthermore...this change by the CBI allows for freely convertible currency between countries.  This gets us very close to an internationally tradable currency.  I am not sure that the dinar is quite to that point yet, but certainly it is heading in that direction.  If we see it begin to be traded electronically instead of only physically as we have gotten our dinars, then the currency will be truly freely convertible.  ...if they do not change to a flexible exchange rate regime once this gets rolling then Iraq will begin to suffer inflationary pressures.  Therefore we may reasonably expect them to change the exchange rate regime in the near future [post 2 of 2]

2-24-2015   Newshound Guru Enorrste  Article quote:  "the transition to a new phase is to conduct foreign remittances through the banking system within the mechanism developed for it."    Iraq is under the protections of Article XIV which prevents other countries from suing it for war reparations or anything else, for that matter.  Under this Article there are also restrictions placed on Iraq with the IMF.  However, all of the "big boys" are under Article VIII, which allows full international commerce, banking, etc., including the right to sue if necessary.  It is necessary for Iraq to move to Article VIII if it wants to open commerce completely At this point, some companies and/or countries are leary of investing in Iraq because if something goes wrong they have no recourse.  Opening up to foreign remittances goes a long way toward getting Iraq ready for Article VIII.  ...foreign remittances acceptance means that people can move funds freely back and forth.  This means that if a foreign company wants to invest in Iraq it will have the ability to send home the profits.  This is huge.

TNT CHAT UPDATE, 24 FEB

TNT:

Iko Ward:  Current Events 8AM EST

Based on current news reports, the Kurds did not show up. Barzani is saying the budget is passed, it's published, and we aren't coming back to parliament until we see the money.

Abadhi is saying we'll give you the money but please come back to parliament so we can show solidarity to the world? The PTB wants to see this solidarity as well, which is why they put the brakes on this weekend.

What we are seeing is centuries of mistrust being played out before us.

As of this moment there are enough ministers to have a quorum. The question is, will they make a motion to implement the budget and get this going. The whole world is watching.

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RVAlready:
  As DC said, nothing in Iraq today is necessary. If Abadi does or does not get what he wants in parliament today, I think he will pull the trigger very soon. I doubt they can wait longer.

Karen: 
 RValready it looks like he got what he wanted they had enough people to vote just no Kurd's  and they won't be happy until the RV is done

DRL:  Based on current news reports, the Kurds did not show up. Barzani is saying the budget is passed, it's published, and we aren't coming back to parliament until we see the money.

DRL: Abadhi is saying we'll give you the money but please come back to parliament so we can show solidarity to the world? The PTB wants to see this solidarity as well, which is why they put the brakes on this weekend.

DRL:
  As of this moment there are enough ministers to have a quorum. The question is, will they make a motion to implement the budget and get this going. The whole world is watching

Ivan Tulifitov
: drl they adjourned til THursday Baghdad (AIN) –Parliament adjourned its session to next Thursday after condcting first and second reading for five laws.

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Sterling:  Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe said they revalued the ZIM!

Here is the article, posted on February 23, 2015:

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=269580

"The five U.S. dollars is the minimum but we're going to be using the United Nations rate of one U.S. dollar to 35,000 Zimbabwe dollars. We have revalued it from one U.S. dollar to 35 quadrillion dollars," Mangudya said.    "<< Reserve Bank Zimbabwe Governor John Mangudya.

Read the article.  It brings up some interesting questions.

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R601:  Interesting ...Great find - thank you!.

XE CURRENCY - 24 Feb - 4.00pm EST Australia

http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=100000000.&From=ZWR&To=USD
1 ZWR = 0.131926 USD    1 USD = 7.58000 ZWR  -   Zimbabwean Dollar    - As seen from the USA.

1 ZWR  =0.167215 AUD


http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=ZWD
1 ZWD = 0.00276319 USD   1 USD = 361.900 ZWD     - Zimbabwean Dollar  - As seen from Australia

1 ZWD  =0.0036 AUD

That, folks, is one heck of a difference in value!
This is the page source code for the XE currency conversion page section handling the currency drop-down selection options ..
No ZWR option is coded into the page able to be seen from Australia ???


Zimbabwean currency Revaluation


Zimbabweans to be compensated fully as local currency is demonetized
Feb 23,2015
HARARE, Feb. 23 (Xinhua) -- The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) will use the rate of one U.S. dollar to 35,000 Zimbabwe dollars as it moves to demonetize the local currency and compensate account holders who lost their savings when the government introduced multi-currencies in 2009.

RBZ Governor John Mangudya told Xinhua in an interview Monday that everybody who had an account as of December 2008 would be awarded a blanket five U.S. dollars per account regardless of whether or not there was any credit in their bank balances.

Mangudya's comments allay fears that had beset the banking public which suspected that the RBZ wanted to credit the accounts with only five U.S. dollars and disregard the balances in the accounts at the time of the introduction of the multi-currencies.

The Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries also issued a statement recently urging the RBZ to fully compensate account holders.

"The five U.S. dollars is the minimum but we're going to be using the United Nations rate of one U.S. dollar to 35,000 Zimbabwe dollars. We have revalued it from one U.S. dollar to 35 quadrillion dollars," Mangudya said.

"This explains why the figure (to demonetize) has risen from the initial six million U.S. dollars to 20 million dollars," he added.

Former Finance Minister in the inclusive government Tendai Biti had indicated that six million dollars would be required to compensate account holders affected by the abandonment of the local currency in favour of mainly the United States dollar and the South African rand.

Other currencies acceptable in the banks are the Australian dollar, British pound sterling, Botswana pula and to a limited extent the Euro, Indian rupee, Chinese yuan and Japanese yen.

The local currency was literally made moribund in 2009 when the government sought to arrest runway inflation which then stood at 231 million percent at the last official count, even though unofficial figures put it at 4 billion percent.

To cope with inflation, the RBZ redenominated the Zimbabwe dollar in 2006, 2008 and 2009, with the highest being a 100 trillion dollar banknote printed on bond paper after the German company which used to supply it with the special paper stopped doing so because of economic sanctions imposed on the country.

The central bank would also occasionally slash the zeros from the notes amid concerns from businesses that the many zeros were crashing their computer systems.

The demonetization of the local currency will be completed by June 30, 2015allowing many people who had stashed the Zimbabwe dollar in its various denominations to finally discard it.


Ie - The old currency will have no value past June 30 2015.


http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=269580

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OK Rocks: I COULD BE WRONG BUT IT SOUNDS LIKE ITS VARIOUS DENOMINATIONS WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THOSE WHO STASHED THEIR ZIMS....OR DO THEY MEAN NO LONGER VIABLE

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SandyF:  There is probably some truth in it.

"we're going to be using the United Nations rate of one U.S. dollar to 35,000 Zimbabwe dollars. We have revalued it from one U.S. dollar to 35 quadrillion dollars,"

35 quadrillion(35 x 10 to the power of 15) is revalued to 35 thousand(35 x 10 to the power of 3)

Revaluation factor is 10 to the power of 12, this is the same as ZWR to ZWL.

It would appear that they are going to compensate account holders on the basis of ZWL holding as opposed to ZWR, balances in Dec 2008 would have been in ZWR.

The 100 trillion note is worth $100 as ZWL