Sunday, December 13, 2015


Doc:  IKO – Good Morning – are things looking like you talked about on Friday nite? Thank you.
Iko Ward:  Doc, so far
Ravenhill:  listening to Ray. Someone is asking him to explain “put” that was talked about here in Chat. He says he doesn’t know.. Isn’t that what IKO was talking about and wasn’t it pertaining to the market in some way? could someone clue Ray in so we can all understand? we need to help us all understand, Ray can’t know everything Thanks text him someone so he can explain Thanks
’KajunRedBull:  In finance, a put or put option is a stock market device which gives the owner of the put the right, but not the obligation, to sell an asset (the underlying), at a specified price (the strike), by a predetermined date (the expiry or maturity) to a given party (the seller of the put).
Beethovin:  Buying a put, you are betting down, and vice versa.
Columbo:  Raven, a put option is an option to sell an asset. either IKO oe Elmer said there are 670 million or billion set for the 15th or 16th. i think that means that a lot of sales will or could happen that day.
Beethovin:  Columbo, or buy an asset if you sell the put.  For every option there are two opposing sides. One party is betting up while the other side is betting down.
GatorGuy:  easy way to remember the difference between a Put and a Call on options. . PUT is betting it will go down, like putting down a phone. calls are betting it will go up. . like I’m going to call up my wealth manager
RTG:  For whomever was asking for confirmation on what Iko Ward said this past week regarding “puts,” (they were inquiring for RayRen on OM this morning), this is the quote from Iko: “Oil, Gold, Copper, the markets, all going down. The smart money is bailing in droves. Did you know there are 670 Billion Puts scheduled to call on Dec. 16th? 670 BILLION.”
Iko Ward:  Thx RTG, and that should be edited to 670 Billion Dollars in Puts, scheduled for Friday.
KMan:  according to a Zero hedge article yesterday it’s actually 1.1 trillion that expire on Friday and we have he rate increase in Wedneday. Should be an interesting week.
Columbo:  i think the point of the communication was there will probably be a lot of activity that day
Doc:  Elmer of IKO – is the $670B in puts good for us?
Elmerf12346:  Not good for the market. If you believe it will force a counter weight which I call an RV..I say good is somewhat in the equation!
Elmerf123456:  Monday sell offs in window.
Denese:  There are $1.1 trillion of S&P 500 options expiring on Friday morning. $670Bn of these are puts, of which $215Bn are struck relatively close below the market level, between 1900 and 2050. Clients are net long these puts and will likely hold onto them through the event and until expiry. At the time of the Fed announcement, these put options will essentially look like a massive stop loss order under the market.
Denese:  that was the PUT being asked about, i think…. tyler durden has his finger on the pulse
Denese:  DEFINITION of ‘Put Option’ An option contract giving the owner the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specified amount of an underlying security at a specified price within a specified time. This is the opposite of a call option, which gives the holder the right to buy shares.
Heavenshome:  a put option sounds like banker speak to legalize what is really betting?  Or gambling?
Heaveshome: so.. 650 B bets on a big fail in a few days? do i understand this?
Xrayokie:  heaven … it is gambling IMO
Denese:   the simplest way i know to look at it is a stop loss is going to be triggered on 670B on friday, which means sale orders will automatically be submitted. combined with the FED announcement, that is a double whammy for tanking the market
Elmerf123456:  Imo what I’m trying to say is you can’t let Iran play on a global per​spective and not allow Iraq to be there also. Way too much interchangi​ng between the two!
Elmerf12346:  Emergency Finance meeting yesterday.
Prime Minister Dr. Haidar al-Abbadi Meets President and members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee Urgent
Mr. Prime Minister, Dr. Haider al-Abadi met in his office on Saturday, the President and members of the Parliamentary Finance Committee in the presence of First Deputy Speaker Sheikh Hamoudi.
During the meeting, they discussed the financial budget for next year and coordination between the executive and legislative branches to meet the economic and financial challenges faced by the country.
He stressed that the constructive dialogue between the government and the House of Representatives that would overcome the problems and challenges, particularly in the preparation of the general budget of the country’s process because the real resources of the country fell by 60 percent and the government budget preparation so that reduce the deficit to acceptable limits which have been introduced in the inclusion of items the budget.
During the meeting, discuss the observations made by the Finance Committee in detail and to agree on a number of them and check out other observations.
Badscott4:  “Words are singularly the most powerful force available to humanity. We can choose to use this force constructively with words of encouragement, or destructively using words of despair. Words have energy and power with the ability to help, to heal, to hinder, to hurt, to harm, to humiliate and to humble.” ― Yehuda Berg
[LAS] SweetGram wrote what’s the word on OM tonight ~ folks are asking ` ANSWER…. flybaby777 wrote dont think the plan was to let it go this far… all the ptb elected 1 person to decide the time because they trust his judgement players in this game that want to sit back and watch and laugh but diffrent group have basically said to people who caused the problems we won’t hurt you if you knock it off … that one person has the power to decide when .. if he gets tired of the games he just may let er go and not listen to all the others.. if no rv by today or tomorrow it will be a crash and people will be hurt … they don’t care if people are in pain, they have money and don’t give a fig about us ….
[LAS] flybaby777 wrote Sweet….. some of it i don’t like….. going to talk about china now flybaby777 wrote china wants a smooth transition if the western bankers would just agree… nbk2q1h wrote I don’t think China will wait until January flybaby777 wrote nbk…. I don’t think so either .. their trying to be patient with us but that will go only so far flybaby777 wrote IkO said he had no new news today, very quiet
[LAS] Ej wrote The main person in one of the major groups said this week that President Obama is holding up the RV isa52bc wrote They are doing something…at this point I just don’t know what. Also, they are trading when the forex market is closed…again 😉
[LAS] isa52bc wrote Good evening TNT Family! Just a quick fly by before early bedtime. The Forex charts are being played with on the site I watch. At first I got the “502 Bad Gateway” messages, then that changed to “Invalid Symbol” messages. Now a couple of the chart screens are showing PIPS Y Axis values at 0.00, while a one of the charts (IQD/USD) is still showing the 502 Bad Gateway message!!!!!
[LAS] rockymtnlady wrote Howdy all! Good friend of mine works in lower level at our local Wells Fargo (she holds currency) told us today that all days off between today and the end of the year have been cancelled!
[LAS] flybaby777 wrote all bank personel can’t have any time off till after the first of the year … so says OM
[LAS] platinumrunway wrote that would be accurate I have a friend who works in the banking system and her leave was denied also until after Jan 15th
[LAS] elmerf123456 wrote Rule of 72 all loaded for all of you. It’s what Ray talked about and what I’ve used for 25 years  http://www.moneychimp.com/features/rule72.htm
[LAS] RayRen98 wrote morning crew rap session let’s talk for a BIT……. Rays rap SESSION…. Better to take all your currency in to negotiate better rates, the more the better if going for a contract rate and married you need to go in together in order to sign an NDA….
Not talking about a normal ce, just contract RATE… No one knows what the taxes on this will be YET…. But you would have to pay quarterly based on your numbers and you need a tax professional….
We will get the word out as soon as we know it via, chat, tests, ETC… Ray likes bullion COINS… Hide them, be creative LOL… Not doing them out of country, need easier access for “just in case” i cant get out of country… Keep the us bullion in country…
Many are targeting the 15th, we will see what HAPPENS….
Once it happens he thinks he will call open mic first, not family cuz they will be with him LOL… Will just say, its done guys!
Yes, from what i hear they will attempt to verify your currency on the SPOT…
HighHopes:  This is a couple days old but IMO –very interesting!!  HH
Guess What Happened The Last Time Junk Bonds Started Crashing Like This? Hint: Think 2008
“We are looking at real carnage in the junk bond market.”
Michael Snyder | Economic Collapse – December 9, 2015
The extreme carnage that we are witnessing in the junk bond market right now is one of the clearest signals yet that a major U.S. stock market crash is imminent.
For those that are not familiar with “junk bonds”, please don’t get put off by the name.  They aren’t really “junk”.  They simply have a higher risk and thus a higher return than other bonds of the same type.  And yesterday, I explained why I watch them so closely.  If stocks are going to crash, you would expect to see a junk bond crash first.
This happened in 2008, and it is happening again right now.
On Monday, a high yield bond ETF known as JNK crashed through the psychologically important 35.00 barrier for the very first time since the last financial crisis.  On Tuesday, high yield bonds had their worst day in three months, and JNK plummeted all the way down to 34.44.  When I saw this I was absolutely stunned.  This is precisely the kind of junk bond crash that I have been anticipating that we would soon witness.
Normally, stocks and junk bonds track one another very closely, but just like before the 2008 crash, they have become decoupled in recent months.  Anyone that even has an elementary understanding of the financial world knows that this cannot continue indefinitely.  And when they start converging once again, the movement could be quite violent.
When I chose to use the word “carnage” to open this article, I was not exaggerating what is going on in the junk bond market one bit.  On Tuesday evening, Jeffrey Gundlach used the exact same word to describe what is happening…
Jeffrey Gundlach, the widely followed investor who runs DoubleLine Capital, said on a webcast on Tuesday that the junk bond market has come under severe selling pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.
“We are looking at real carnage in the junk bond market,” Gundlach said. Gundlach also said it was too early to buy high-yield junk bonds and energy debt securities. “I don’t like things when they go down every single day.”
Sometimes a chart can be extremely helpful in understanding what is going on.  The following chart was posted by Zero Hedge on Tuesday, and it shows that yields on the riskiest junk bonds are heading into the stratosphere…
High Yield Debt – from Zero Hedge
And for those that are not familiar, it is important to note that when yields go up, bond prices go down.  So the chart above is what a “crash” looks like.
Another “leading indicator” that I watch is the behavior of Dow Transports.
Dow Transports started crashing before the Dow Jones Industrial Average did back in August, and now it is happening again…
Dow Transports are in reverse. Down over 3% today, the biggest drop since the Black Monday collapse, Trannies are now below the lows of the Bullard bounce from October 2014 and down a shocking 16% in 2015. This would be the first four-quarters-in-a-row drop in Transports since 1994 and the worst year since 2008…
In addition, we are also seeing trouble signs erupt at major financial institutions just like we did during the run up to the 2008 crash.  For example, I have been concerned about Morgan Stanley for quite a while, and on Tuesday we learned that they have just laid off more than a thousand workers…
Struggling Morgan Stanley slashed 1,200 jobs around the world in recent days, a person familiar with the matter told CNNMoney.
The cuts were broad-based and eliminated 25% of the positions within the fixed income and commodities businesses, the person said. Those divisions are grappling with tumbling trading revenue and shrinking fees.
Morgan Stanley also eliminated about 730 back-office jobs like human-resources and IT positions.
Virtually all of the things that we would expect to see just prior to a 2008-style stock market crash are happening right now.
If just two or three leading indicators were flashing red, we could have a really good debate about what they might mean.
But the fact that virtually all of the numbers are screaming a warning at us should mean that the debate is over.  Anyone with an open mind should be able to very clearly see what is coming next.
Very quickly, let me give you just 10 signs that indicate that we are right on the precipice of a major recession and a very substantial financial downturn…
1. Global GDP growth has gone negative for the first time since 2009.
2. Corporate earnings growth has turned negative.
3. S&P 500 net profit margins are steeply declining.  According to Tony Sagami, “since 1973, there has been only one 60 bps decline in S&P 500 net profit margin that didn’t lead to a recession.”
4. In October, U.S. imports of goods declined by 6.6 percent on a year over year basis.
5. In October, U.S. exports of goods declined by 10.4 percent on a year over year basis.
6. U.S. manufacturing is contracting at the fastest pace that we have seen since the last recession.
7. Corporate debt defaults have risen to the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.
8. Credit card numbers that were recently released show that holiday sales have gone negative for the first time since the last recession.
9. The velocity of money in the United States has dropped to the lowest level ever recorded.
10. Of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the entire world, 47 of them (slightly more than half) have already plunged at least 10 percent year to date.
Just like in 2008, other global financial markets are imploding ahead of a U.S. collapse.
On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 162 points, but we are still within 1000 points of the market peak that was set earlier this year.  We are still in far better shape than most of the rest of the world, but that will soon change.
I can’t think of a single leading indicator that is telling us that everything is going to be okay.  All of the numbers are pointing to major trouble ahead.  So I hope that you are being smart and doing what you can to get prepared while there is still time.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.