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Tuesday, December 22, 2015

DINAR GURUS UPDATE, 22 DEC

12-22-2015   Newshound Guru Enorrste  Once the float begins the rate will rise.  Furthermore, it is clear that this is not a "panic" move on the part of the CBI.  In fact, Saleh stated that it is NOT a devaluation but is instead only an ADJUSTMENT.  I have no reason to doubt that statement.  It is consistent with the small size of the change and with the statement implied that they are buying time (6 months) to get in line with "international standards."  Remember, it was the IMF that stated that Iraq would move into the "world market" at the beginning of the new year, or shortly thereafter.  In my view, the phrase "world market" and "International standards" are synonomous.  I hope I am correct.   [post 2 of 2]

12-22-2015   Newshound Guru Enorrste  Article quote:   "lifting the US dollar selling to banks and exchange companies rate by 16 dinars any by 1.37 percent to 1182 dinars."   It seems to me that the CBI is moving in this direction primarily to stall the drop in their reserves, irrespective of any "international standards" that they reference.  In that sense, this is a good move for the short term.  The article also stated that it would give them "6 months" of time.  I don't think that that means that they will run out of reserves in 6 months.  Instead, it is more likely that they are buying some time to implement the IMF agreement to move to a float.  I therefore conclude that we will see a movement to a new exchange rate regime within 6 months and that this "tweeking" of the rate is an assurance that their financial position will be secure through that time period.   [post 1 of 2....stay tuned]

12-22-2015   Newshound Guru Millionday   Article quote:  "The Central Bank of Iraq, on Monday, reduced the value of the dinar against the US dollar.  According to a statement of the bank, that "lifting of US dollar selling to banks and exchange companies rate by 16 dinars any by 1.37 percent to 1182 dinars."   SO THE RATE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AND THE INTERNATIONAL RATES ARE BEING CALCULATED FROM THIS VALUE ADJUSTMENT -- THE CONVERSION IS THE GOAL AND THEY ARE CURRENTLY WORKING ON THEIR GOAL AND OURS... WHOOOPPOW.

12-22-2015   Newshound Guru Kaperoni    from CBI site - "Board Resolution No. (329) for the year 2015 (the exchange rate) So some are wondering why we saw that 1182 rate and Iraq didn't pick up on it until today...well these CBI docs show us..that the board approved the rate change on 11/30..effective 12/1 (which it changed on the CBI site).  but the actual announcement didn't come out until 12/18 (media).  They also tell us the CBI bank rate now at 1190 which means the 2% spread is 1214.  So the dinar Market Rate has to be 1214 or less than that.  And today it is 1220 which is out of compliance.  It is frustrating, but the rule is more for the CBI than the IMF.  They want the CBI to know how to manage the spread before the playing field becomes international.

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