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Monday, November 9, 2015

MNT. GOAT UPDATE, 9 NOV

Hello Everyone.
It is the second week in November 2015 already and many are frustrated again as to why the RV did not yet happen.
There is no reason to be frustrated. So far we are seeing everything is on path for a late Dec 2015 or early 2016 RV window of opportunity. This is just a very strong indication for this window. I am not saying it WILL RV. We base this on FACTS not on some secret source whispering intel in my ear……lol…..
Many criticized me on my last post about the US attempting to bring down the National debt by using these early dinar exchanges and oil credits.  They claimed that the US debt did increase and so how can they be bringing it down.
These people once again are “know it alls” and have to prove to everyone how smart they are. So then they should be able to back up with they say?
So to answer your question and challenge – If you do not add to the deficit at the past alarming rates are you in fact curbing the spending and thus at least containing the deficit?
How do you believe Obama was able to get the last budget bill (in deficit spending) approved so quickly?
What he is attempting to do is SLOW DOWN the rate of spending so as not to add so much, if any, to the National debt. Overtime if they can get the budget balanced, without any major disruption in the economy, this will be a huge goal accomplished. This is the key too.
They do not want to slow down the US economy down cause this will only lessen revenues and thus make it even harder to balance the budget. It is a tricky balancing act. It must be done gradually. So the USA too is balancing many balls all at once.
Many compare the future dinar exchange in the US reserves (post RV) to what happened at a result of the Kuwait currency revaluing. They believe it is going to magically pay off all the national debt of the USA upon an RV.  Really?  Who the hell told you this?
This is just such a ridiculous notation I need to address it once again. I am going to tell you one more time. This will NOT HAPPEN with the dinar reserves the USA now possesses. In fact it did not happen with the Kuwait revaluation either.
All the Clinton administration did was balance the budget thus creating a surplus of revenues for that quarter. Just one quarter out of the 32 quarters of his administration. This surplus revenue was then given away as economic incentives to the citizens (to gain more popularity for a second upcoming election?) by the next G.W. Bush administration.
So where should the money instead have gone? Should it have gone to pay off some of the national debt ? It did not as history shows us.
So this plan with Iraq is to use the oil credits from the turn-in of our dinars to generate wealth (part of the “delete the zeros” project) for the USA. This justified as paying down the war debt.
This usually happens after a major war, as the losers are forced to pay off the debt of the winners.  The money to be made off these oil credits by brokering oil over the next 20-30 years will go first towards supplementing the existing year’s budget so they don’t have to borrow so much, if any.
Next any surplus can then go to pay down some of the national debt of trillions $$$ going towards the war debt. They can not simply buy too much oil on credits all at once because of two factors:
1) they have an agreement with Iraq that only so much of these oil credits are to be used each  year beginning in 2013. So this deadline has already passed and the US is now already using these oil credits.
2) Until the currency officially comes back online with a “real” value (now you can see why Iraq is delaying the RV)  they are not about to publicize what they are doing since they would encourage a mad rush for millions more to purchase IQD and crash Iraqi’s economy. Do you think Iraq needs this pressure right now with their currency economic situation? Imagine if this were to happen? So just enough is just right and for now they have the balance needed.
So all you “smarties” out there should also know they will never completely pay down the USA national debt. Having a national debt can be healthy for country’s economy. But then again not too much.
So now YOU go do your homework and YOU come back and tell everyone why having a national debt is so important to a nation’s economy since you are so smart and want to bring us the intel.
But the larger question is who is going to pay now for this fight against ISIS? We know this is costing the USA and other coalition countries millions each and every day. Maybe some of you “smarties”  and “know-it-alls” out on these dinar forums can tell us….lol…..lol…..?
Maybe the answer lies is this question – Is there more to gain in the future than they are now spending….hint…hint…hint….lol….!
Today’s News
Today is Monday November 9th  and still no RV. Are you surprised? So there was once again nonsense talk of an RV this past weekend. You shouldn’t be surprised that this did not occur if you have been reading my news letters.
We are now into the second week of November already and I we see this movement to get the budget completed going on. As we inch our way towards December the progress we have been long awaiting is happening each week and all is looking very good.
Today I want to concentrate on sorting out some of the “balls” that Iraq is juggling right now. If you know these projects or programs ( refer to them as the juggling balls) they are working on, then it is much easier to read the articles and know what they are talking about. Right now this is the pulse of Iraq. I have also tried to give you a brief update on each of these items from the news over the weekend and so far this week.
So here is a list of the main projects they are now working on:
– The RECONCILIATION (OR ERBIL) MANDATES
– 2016 BUDGET
– FIGHTING ISIS / DAASH, BREAKING OFF FROM THE IRANIAN INFLUENCE
– CURRENCY REFORMS
– INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES/REFORMS
– UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST
– CLEANING UP THE CORRUPTION
Now that you know the list let me review each of these with you and explain them. By doing this you should be able to read just about any article and easily place it in one of these categories. By placing it in the category you can then connect the dots and see the reason why they are doing what they are doing the timelines.
But remember many are interconnected and you can’t separate the impact or priorities on other issues.  There are many golden nuggets so read carefully.
These categories (or projects) are the reasons for just about EVERYTHING you see going on right now in Iraq.
[Reconciliation (or Erbil) Mandates]
Facilitating Reconciliation in Iraq through Constitutional Review and National Dialogue.
We have seen the settling of Article 140 of the constitution. There is still however issues on the oil and gas law as to how Kurdistan will be allowed to see excess oil beyond the budget quotas. I do not believe this issue will be resolved until just after the 2016 budget is approved.
We have seen the Parties law get passed and is under implementation. Legitimate parties had 90 days to register and to qualify. This deadline is passed.
The Three Presidencies law still needs a second reading.
Hydrogen Carbon Law (HCL) – I believe this law is done but payments of the 17% is not always on time
Amnesty- last week we read they wanted to address this in Saturday’s session. They did and want now to vote on it this week. Let’s watch for it.
Implementation of the Federation Council- gives the people more voice in the legislative process, another body of legislation like the US Senate.
Establishment of  a National Guard.. The law to implement this is passed last week. We had previously read articles telling us they already set up boot camps for this purpose and staffed with coalition advisors. But there is still an open issue as to how they will recruit enough men to man these units. Thus a “conscription” draft like law is on the table and we watch for more details on this topic. This is also interconnected with fighting terrorism as many from my list of “juggling balls” are interconnected with each other.
A little more information on the history of the Erbil Agreement. You can see how these currency laws for reconciliation all fit into the process.
[2016 Budget]
First let me say that 2015 budget was the very first year that Iraq was on its own to find funding to support its budget. They are no longer depend on the scrutiny on the DFI fund distribution from post was days. They now control their own revenues and budget their own expenditures.
When they finally get out of sanctions fully by getting their currency returned to them, the remaining balance in the DFI fund will be returned to them. This could help too in balancing the 2016 budget.
So we hear that parliament now has the 2016 budget. If you read it you will determine there is a huge gap in that nearly half of it is deficit. So how will they fill this gap? This is the heart of many of the REFORMS, as Abadi is trying to consolidate and make the government leaner.
Earlier this year for the 2015 budget deficit we witnessed the socking of the 3 presidential deputies VP and the reduction in the ministries. Later this year we witnessed the salary reduction program and how this is saving billions each month. This is also interconnected with combating corruption as it has dismissed these expensive perks, salary favoritism and inflated political related salaries.
Abadi has put the govt employees on a standard govt pay scale. No favoritism, no special perks. Could this help in salary reduction once the IQD rate increases? Sure it will but this RV is not the driving force. The driving is and has been all along to save money.
Then just Friday we learned and I quote from a recent article – “Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi attributed the government’s decision to withdraw dozens of bills from the House of Representatives “not to lend themselves with reforms and government spending.”
These reforms are not just about combating corruption, instead they are more about finding money to meet the budget. Why can’t they just trim the budget instead? Trimming the budget has already been done and they are now as lean as they can be, yet still provide the needed services.
Iraq applied to the World Bank for a “soft” loan to help cover a portion of the deficit. In return the World Bank has sent advisers to the Iraqi State Audit to address and assessing the financial situation there.
The UN team offers a set of recommendations to the Iraqi government make clear reforms on salaries that exceed 70% of the country’s total revenue, and drain all the capabilities of the Malian government, as well as the lifting of government subsidies for food in the ration card items, and also the removal of subsidies on fuel prices and oil derivatives.
Latest news from over the weekend is the World Bank is willing to give Iraq a substantial  loan but wants to charge a rate of 11%  interest on the borrowed money. Iraq is still attempting to renegotiate the rate.
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, received in his office on Sunday, Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, the two sides stressed the importance of accelerating the adoption of the state budget law for 2016.
Iraq is targeting Dec 1st to complete the budget and have it passed thru parliament.
[Fighting ISIS / DAASH, breaking off from the Iranian influence]
Iraqi forces are said to be planning to mount a huge offensive to retake the city of Mosul from Islamic State militants.
It is not clear when Iraqi forces will be ready to attack the northern city. The much anticipated counter-offensive has been repeatedly postponed because Iraqi forces are unprepared and bogged down in battle elsewhere.
Mosul was overrun by Islamic State in June 2014 and millions are now banned from leaving by the hardline militants, who have proclaimed a caliphate straddling Iraq and Syria.
Operations in Anbar are now said to be winding down and I believe Iraq troops will be moved into the Mosul area next for this offensive.
They are being stingy on telling us too much on their plans and we should all understand that ISIS is reading the news too.

[Currency Reforms]
If you have been paying attention you have witnessed many of these steps already taken to prepare for the new “permanent” currency and to get Iraq out of the post war provisional currency (the 3 zero notes). Here is some of what has already been done:
2012 minted the new coins and print the lower denomination notes. These notes and coins are not yet distributed to all the provinces. The project was halted due to ISIS infiltration in Iraq. They will have to restart this project just prior to launching them. We will hear about this in the news. This is something they can’t hide from us.
2015 told us about the plan to use the new 50k and 100k notes. Said they would launch the 50k notes before the end of 2015. The 100k notes will follow in early 2016. These notes are not part of the provisional post war notes but will coincide with the new permanent money of minted coins and lower denominations.
We must watch and wait for them to launch these 50k notes as a sign the RV is close at hand.
2011 -2012 huge effort to try to suck in as much of the 3 zero notes from inside Iraq as they can. It is uncertain just how many the collected already but some say as much as 80-90%. So Iraqi citizens are using mainly the US dollar and their SMART Cards for daily purchases of goods and service (more  use of SMART cards than anything).
We read articles that the purpose of loading these cards so early was for this very reason. It also is part of the currency reform project to limit the money laundering and counterfeiting. Don’t believe me that the SMART Cards are an important part of the strategy? – here is an article to prove it. There words not mine.
The CBI on Saturday called a specialist in economic affairs for Iraq to implement the Ki Cards (SMART cards) and the MasterCard technology in all shops and sensitize the citizens to the use of the these cards for daily purchases. Why do they want to do this?
We read articles last week about printing more of the 3 zeros notes as an alternative to getting more currency in the hands of the citizens. Instead we also know the larger plan is to delete the 3 zero notes from the economy and so without infusing more of the 3 zero notes, how can you facilitate the flow of money in Iraqi’s economy (which is one of the issues crippling their economy right now). The economists say to use these debit cards instead and there is no need for more hard currency.
What is interesting too is we know that Iraq has very large stashed of the newer lower denominations but they will not distribute them now. Why? Cause these notes are associated with a significant increase in the value of their currency. This alone tells us they must come out with a value much higher than the US dollar many are now using on the streets or what is the incentive to turn them in for the lower denominations later?
How many times have you see someone try to counterfeit coins? By the time you are done the expense of counterfeiting is almost the same value as the coin itself. So it’s not worth it.  We must watch and wait for them to complete the launching of these lower denomination bills and coins as a sign the RV is close at hand.
The finance committee told us earlier this spring they were halting the “project to delete the zeroes” until sometime early 2016. We must watch and wait for them to re-launch this project as a sign the RV is close at hand.
The GOI passed the Ant-Money Laundering bill as they were kindly asked to have it completed by Oct 1st and were early in doing so. We now read many articles about the ongoing investigations and exposure to the corruption in this area of concern. They must figure out a way to put in place proper safeguards to prevent corruption with these weekly money auctions.
We can definitely see how this could hold back the RV. We look for more articles on this topic in the near future as this is now a HOT topic. We watch for them telling us they have the solution(s). It is HOT because we all should use out common sense. They will not go forward with the RV and lose billions each week in these auctions.
Why would they since isn’t Abadi now instituting reforms to find ways to save billions in salary cuts and cutting govt programs? So why would they neglect this area where they also can save billions and even more so if the currency RV’d.
Okay today is Sunday and out pops this article telling us how they are resolving this corruption. See article below. Amazing isn’ it. Its all just a continuing saga…lol….
But this is very good since they caught the bad guys,. We know this issue would definitely hold back any RV. Hopefully they will come up with a permanent solution soon.
Article Begins
CENTRAL BANK: WE HAVE TAKEN ALL LEGAL ACTION AGAINST OFFENDING BANKS TO SELL THE CURRENCY
Information / BAGHDAD / ..
The Central Bank of Iraq, Sunday, to take all legal action against offending banks to auction foreign currency, stressing that the bank’s audit teams continuing its work in this area in coordination with the judicial authorities.
The bank said in a statement received by the agency / information /, a copy of it, that “in light of the recounted by some of the media and social networking sites of news and information and presentation of documents pertaining to violations of some banks and companies in the sale and purchase of foreign currency window emphasize that we had previously taken all legal action against those banks and their clients in conflict with the instructions for an auction of foreign currency for the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 “.
The statement said that” Among those actions prosecution by Iraqi courts in addition to his imposing heavy fines and being Asthsalha now, “noting that” the bank’s audit teams continuing to work in this field with the coordination and inform the competent judicial authorities offenses or values the amounts obtained for this purpose.
“It is noteworthy that the Iraqi Central Bank decided, in (June 9, 2015), depriving the 14 banks from entering the window buying and selling foreign currency, as he emphasized that depriving these banks will continue until the payment of the amounts discharged. It ended
Article Ends
[Investment Opportunities]
The following I took from an article and I did not want to just dump the article here but instead took it and trying to point out significant pieces to you on the direction Iraq must take to diversify. It also is telling us the obstacles to undertaking this effort seriously.
This philosophy in the Iraqi constitution, in Article 25, which states and I quote- “The State shall ensure the reform of the Iraqi economy on a modern basis and to ensure full investment of its resources, diversifying its sources and encouraging the private sector and development”. This is based on narrowing the field to the economic activity of the state, as a prelude to join the system of the world economy imposed by international institutions (the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and WTO) and guidance.
Economists say Iraq currently faces conditions that do not allow him to work on this approach only after it is economic and social reform process and even political, and then the appropriate approach to join the international economic system, noting that as a result we note that there is a significant distortion in the government budgets for Iraq, because despite what was approved by the Constitution and announced by the government following the philosophy of free market economy and the adoption of market mechanism economist as a method, but that is what we observe in the budget otherwise completely.
They pointed out that the budget reflects the extent of government intervention in the economy, particularly as indicated by the operational expenditure figures and specifically paragraph salaries and wages, and thus there are great challenges of economic, social and political general budget and make this the image that we see control.
He said al-Ani, saying: What Iraq still suffers from the lack of reasons for security and stability are allowed to develop realistic and ambitious development and reconstruction programs, in the circumstances of the lack of strategic development and clear The glitch security significantly, where the focus is on the security aspects, in particular social aspects, including the guarantee entry to citizens, pointing out that this situation has seen high unemployment rates accompanied by economic and social effects makes it imperative for the government addressed through fiscal policy.
[UN Millennium goals for the Middle East]
I encourage each of you readers to read up in the overall UN future plan for the middle east. I have included a link below to find information on this topic. It is very interesting and so you can see the proposed future of the region. It is just a matter of time. In the short term they can not accomplish these goals without a real currency for Iraq.
In 2015, more than 190 world leaders committed to 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to help us all end extreme poverty, fight inequality & injustice, and fix climate change. We each have a role to play if we’re going to achieve these goals of a more prosperous, equitable, and sustainable world.
[Cleaning up the Corruption]
The current head of government, Haidar al-Abadi, launched a reform campaign in August to tackle graft and incompetence following mass protests against corruption, poor services, and reckless government spending
So many of you heard about the death of Ahmad Chalibi? Like the killing of Talibani this too is being kept secret as to the cause until they are ready to tell it. They do not want to stir up any more tribal tensions.
In this regard an amazing article came out this past week telling us that Chalabi covered all his bases. Do you know  what this means? Chalabi must of suspected someone would plot to kill him so he protected the sensitive file he possessed on high level corruption by giving a copy to his second wife.
Chalabi told her earlier that if any harm happened to him, the documents and CD tapes  in her possession with should be handed over to Massoud Barzani, President of Kurdistan. So the authorities do now have all the files on corruption Chalibi needed to hand over to them.
I have asked everyone to watch for an upcoming spilt in the Dowa party. So last week we witnessed Abadi is reeling politically after signs of a split in the coalition of state law, led by Nuri al-Maliki.
There are now movements within the “State of Law” bloc heavyweights in the Parliament and the National Alliance suggest signs of “split” within the coalition in the wake of the wing Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi with the Supreme Council and the Sadrists coordination with sticks toward Nuri al-Maliki bloc Badr. This is in the aftermath of the death of Chalibi. Do not take his death lightly it is going to make waves to Maliki’s final demise.
Former Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, on Thursday, in a television interview that “Washington sensitive to the evolution of the Iraqi-Russian relations.” Maliki said in the meeting, which was broadcast by “Russia Today” later that Washington is not serious in eradicating Daash, adding: “I have called on the government to invite Russia for strikes to Daash, there are those who oppose.”
He said that Russia has a genuine desire to eradicate terrorism in Syria and Iraq, stressing that Russia and Iran are two of the feet support for Iraq after the fall of Mosul, and that “Washington took the role of spectator after the invasion of Daash of Iraq, and was aware of the movements of terrorists.”
He pointed out that there are major countries seeking to divide Iraq, and this project still exist, and added that the fall of Mosul was a plot hatched by international and regional parties. Maliki confirmed the need for the return of Kirkuk under Iraqi central government authority.
And cross-Maliki expressed support for the move to withdraw the mandate of Parliament Abadi accordance with the principle of separation of powers.
An Iraqi court on Thursday sentenced a former environment minister to two years in prison over charges of corruption, the judicial authority said in a statement. He was sentenced to two years’ imprisonment and also fined by the court to pay 338 million Iraqi Dinar (about 285,000 U.S. dollars).
But here is the really good news…..
Funny how this news comes now at the aftermath on the evidence presented in the corruption files turned over to the authorities from Chalibi’s second wife?
Announced the judiciary, Monday, all issued several arrest warrants against senior officials in the state, but the security forces have not carried out, considering it a violation of justice and the rule of law. He said the judiciary spokesman Abdul SattarBayrakdar, in an interview with Alsumaria News, “The judge issued the decisions of arrest and conviction, but the executive bodies are responsible for the implementation of these decisions.”
Okay so these senior officials must be very high ranking if they are hesitating in arresting them. Could this be Maliki and his goons? Notice too how they did not give us any names.
The federal judiciary announced, earlier, about to take new measures that will develop the judicial work and its interaction with the citizens about the earliest, and the period between the issuance of arrest warrants against other officials in the state they memorandums of suspicions of corruption and involved in terrorist or criminal.
Could this get any better?
[Update: On Abadi’s Reforms]
We are now hearing that parliament plans to host the Accountability and Justice law this week. We know they already have had a   first and second reading. As I have said previously this is a very involved law and they want to get it right.
In the same light we are now hearing the Amnesty law may also be hosted in parliament this week. We always thought these two laws would be addressed and passed in or around the same parliament  session. There is some interconnection.
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All.

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