So far we are seeing many things on path for a late Dec 2015 or early 2016 RV window of opportunity. There is a very strong indication for this window. I am not saying it WILL RV because the environment in Iraq could change as it did in 2012. It is very dynamic. We base this on FACTS not on some secret source whispering intel in my ear……lol…..
The so-called intel “gurus” had absolutely NO sound evidence or FACTS to back up to allow you to believe this RV would or could have happened so far. I am talking about FACTS and not some DC contact or some “secret” sources from Iraq or calls made to banks in other countries.
In my past news letters I asked everyone to be on the look out for certain events. These events would be our golden nuggets we have been waiting for.
I have said that only when you see these events (golden nuggets) could there be a strong indication of an upcoming RV window of opportunity. Such signs as news of launching the new 50k or 100k notes, articles about increasing the value of the dinar, distributing the lower denominations and coins, news of going international, deleting the zeros, putting the currency on a float, etc.
News leaks from Iraq are simply too easy with modern technology. There was no way there would ever be an RV and have come out of the blue all of a sudden, as many intel gurus have led you to believe would and could happen. The news media is always going to give some hint of a pending RV.
Also Iraq simply is not going to just trigger an RV without doing all the needed preparation for it. If you know what to look for you can see the path they are taking through this preparation. Normal people not already invested and watching would miss and overlook this data. Not us though since many of us now know what to look for and to watch closely.
Today’s News Today is Tuesday November 10th. All is looking very good! Just do many GOLDEN NUGGETS I had to come out with a news letter today to show you my amazement and excitement. NEVER before since 2012 have we seen such discussion and events unfolding to indicate an RV is just on the horizon.
We are now into the second week of November already and we see this movement to get the budget completed and maybe even in the next couple weeks. At least we ready Abadi and Jubouri has a meeting and Abadi stressed to Jubouri the need to push parliament. Then we read that today parliament plans to do the first reading on the 2016 budget. Amazing isn’t it?
In my last news letter I talked about helping you sort out some of the “balls” that Iraq is juggling right now. If you know these projects or programs ( refer to them as the juggling balls) they are working on, then it is much easier to read the articles and know what they are talking about. Right now this is the pulse of Iraq. I have also tried to give you a brief update on each of these items from the news over the weekend and so far this week. I hope this was helpful to everyone.
One of these so called “balls” they are juggling is the currency reform. I will talk more on this in today’s news letter.
So what pops out at us recently on the currency reform project?
Many GOLDEN NUGGETs. Wow! – So many nuggets just recently on the currency reform. We hear the economist once again having a debate over an aspect of currency reform. Last week it was about the issue of a “fixed” vs “float” now its about the effects on the continuance of the “project to delete the zeros”. Why now all of a sudden?
Another GOLDEN NUGGET – The article below is about the project to delete the zeros and is amazing as they already told us last spring they would think about continuing the project to delete the zeros once again in early 2016. So we are getting close to this timeframe and once again we see them setting this up for a future timeframe. The good news they are discussing it again along with other items very pertinent to the RV and they are all goodies we expect and should expect right about now to see. The timing is perfect.
Are these economists writing these article to help the general public understand what is about to happen? I believe they are.
I will quote from the article – “He Ghalibi that the deletion of zeros does not entitle monetary institutions and the Central Bank as the authority responsible for the release to print more money and pumped into the economy, but he restricted including existing cash in the replacement process”.
So what I believe they are saying in the part that I quoted from this article is this. They are telling us that to delete the zeroes would mean decreasing the money supply thus how do you maintain a level money supply then? The economists then goes on to tell us it DOES NOT mean the CBI will go print more three zero notes but rather the plan it to replace the three zero notes with newer notes already ready. (there is a plan in place)
I quote again from the article – “As long as the purchasing power, the demand for the currency does not change, as well as the money supply does not change”
So what they also go to tell us is they do not want the purchasing power to decrease with the replacement notes as they want at least the same equivalent if not higher purchasing power. What they are afraid of most is getting into a case of hyperinflation with much less purchasing power by having too much currency in circulation from the replacement currency. They are advising the CBI to be careful.
DELETE THE ZEROS OF ENCOURAGING THE FLOW OF FUNDS TOWARDS THE INSIDE 10/11/2015 0:00 BAGHDAD – Imad Emirate Confirmed an academic economist and an expert on the process of deleting the zeros are not economic impacts him in the cash value of the currency but is a procedure for re-grading and changed.
Said Dr. Abdul-Hussein Jalil Ghalibi from the Faculty of Management and Economics at the University of Kufa, that the spillover which can feel about in the long run it will encourage the investors’ capital flow towards the inside of the expectation of low inflation, returned this thing that depends on the government’s ability in establishing the ultimate effect of the deletion of zeros.
He noted that changing the currency and delete the zeros of which is just a re-calibration or calibrator does not mean never lifted value The addition of zeros is not a reduction of the value of the currency, and that changing the currency does not exist has a real economic impact because the change will not increase the gross domestic product, which is the standard which is used to measure the production of goods and services in the country. He said Ghalibi: The change of the currency does not affect productivity because factors governed by major resources, technology and institutions are not affected by the currency change, explaining that this change does not affect the purchasing power of money because the strength of the currency comes from increased demand in exchange for the money supply. As long as the purchasing power, the demand for the currency does not change does not change, as well as the money supply does not change.
He Ghalibi that the deletion of zeros does not entitle monetary institutions and the Central Bank as the authority responsible for the release to print more money and pumped into the economy, but he restricted including existing cash in the replacement process. He went on saying: either the external sector, the position will not also be affected, because the price of exports will continue to be the same without changing the payments spent on imports are not affected because foreign exchange is disbursement of foreign exchange for the local currency, which remains unchanged because the purchasing power of the currency does not change.
It was concluded d. Ghalibi that the direct economic impact on the micro and macro economy would be zero, as the demand and supply of goods and services does not change, as well as the investment of net government spending and balance of payments and consumption will not infect any change.
He either money markets are no other economic effect can be felt on the variables. The prices of assets remains selected in the first and secondary markets but it goes down to reflect the new structure after deletion of zeros. He concluded d. Ghalibi to the nominal value of the money used to acquire assets will be adjusted in the light of this, and that the ultimate effect would be zero making and trading and commercial value, indicators and other market market capitalization subject to the same mechanism by deleting the same zeros.
He reiterated that the effect is direct and which can palpation over the long term will encourage the flow of capital towards the inside and that foreign investors will put more confidence in the investment climate, which will improve with time in the country. The rush to put their money in the local financial markets awaiting returns largest departing from the basic assumption centered on low inflation and improved macroeconomic policies, and this also depends on the possibilities of the government in establishing the ultimate effect in the long run.
Next another GOLDEN NUGGET. I got to tell you I did not intend to do a news letter today but since the golden nuggets of news just kept flowing in I knew something was up.
Next another GOLDEN NUGGET. I got to tell you I did not intend to do a news letter today but since the golden nuggets of news just kept flowing in I knew something was up.
Now we see in this article below that they have made a decision to float the currency and it will be solely the CBI’s responsibility. In floating it they will get off the peg strictly to the US dollar and use instead an SDR. They are telling us by staying on the peg to only the US dollar this has been part of the problem in the money laundering, the issue with the auctions and many other aspects of money corruption to terrorists and not being able to keep a stable currency. They admit now is the time to float. Going on the SDR tells us they plan to float it but this time go international since the SDR is pegging against a basket of other international currencies and not just one such as US dollar. In the past this use of the USD was convenient to do since they use the USD (petro dollar) in oil sales anyhow. This entire post war arrangement is about to end.
With all the news we heard recently about the money laundering and corruption with the money auctions does it surprise you that they decided to gradually stop the auctions? But to do this they will need a float to create the demand for the currency.
So how will this float work?
First they intend to come out with a very low rate (unknown ??) and let if float for 4-7 days. During this time period they will issue the new lower denominations paper and coins. Then after this initial float they will revalue the currency to the true value and let it float also. They will of course cap the float and when it hits the cap after climbing as the market adjusts it then will settle down to the normal rate going forward. We have been told this normal rate will be above the Kuwaiti dinar.
The important part also it to realize this initial float is not going to be widely made public and so many of us will miss it as it will move very quickly. I do not know if it will even get out to the global exchanges during this period so you may NOT even have an opportunity to exchange at this low rate anyhow. In other words do not go into hysteria if you hear about this initial float and it does not show up at your bank for almost a week. This is the plan. Anyhow you probably want to take advantage of the higher RV rate anyhow after the float is in effect.
So the following article is very long. Like so many that are translated it may be hard to read so this is why I explained it to you.
News of the departure of the central currency auction «gradually» .. and resort to «float the dollar
Baghdad, Mustafa Mohammed Spin in the corridors of the joints of the government’s talk of asylum authorities to “float the dollar,” to overcome the financial crisis in the country, after the “failure” to ask international financial bonds and the application of a new salary scale, provides 3 trillion dinars to the state treasury.
Insiders say, close from political circles, that the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank “soon” to leave the currency auction and resorting to “float the dollar”; because according to sources provides state what it called “significant returns Dinareh”, to feed the state treasury, the dollar exchange rate.
and sells government Next US dollar from oil revenues, the central bank in exchange for the Iraqi dinar that you use in public spending, such as salaries, etc., and if the price of the Iraqi dinar dropped against the US dollar, the government will be the first to benefit.
But the appearance of Mohammed Saleh Economic Adviser to the Prime Minister, between “the world” that such a decision does not need a government directive, it is from the central bank the power, directly responsible for monetary policy in the country.
And founded the Iraqi Central Bank independent bank under the law issued on the sixth of March 2004, as an independent body, which is responsible for maintaining the stability of the Price and implementation of monetary policy, including exchange rate policies. Bank being daily for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies sessions except public holidays.
It seems that the benefit of not in favor of “floating”; it suggests “broadening the tax base” out of the crisis.
There are more than 40 percent of Iraqis covered by the tax, they are still evading paid.
She close to the decision-making sources in an interview to the correspondent of “the world”, said the government may ask the central bank will soon stop selling the dollar through auction public .. gradually, in preparation for the floating exchange rate entirely, “adding that” the aim is to allow the dollar to rise to the extent that generate returns Dinareh more on the public treasury, to face the consequences of failure in the implementation of a new ladder of salaries.
“experiencing global oil prices since the middle of last year continuous decline, because of the use by some countries to increase Marodha against the lack of demand for it, what the cause of a severe financial crisis in Iraq , whose economy depends on crude proceeds.
The cabinet in the thirteenth of last month’s decision to amend the salary scale for state employees, which included significant reductions in most of the workers in government departments allocations.
obligatory decision in a timely manner severe reject by many of the staff, who went out wide demonstrations in Baghdad and the provinces, to demand its cancellation and considered “unfair”.
also saw demonstrations of green to the staff of the three presidencies of all the region denounced corruption and “counterfeit reforms” adopted by the government. And called on the religious authority, on October 23 last, to study the new salary scale again by the owners of expertise and competence to ensure justice for all.
It is Adviser to the Prime Minister for Economic Affairs appearance of Mohammed Saleh said at the time, that the new salary scale provides three trillion dinars. In the wake of that, the government acquiesced in the November 3 current, popular pressure, declared the Information Office of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, said the new salary scale decision did not cover state employees allocations, noting that the decision was a special salary exclusively.
As Finance Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, such as call Move two days later that the reduction in staff allocations provided 1.3 trillion dinars. The new prime minister Haider al-Abadi, a week ago, his warnings of the financial situation in the country as a result of the current financial crisis caused by the decline in oil prices and the war against al “Daash” that drain big money from the budget. Banking sources said, in 9 of last September, the government will start a campaign promoting international bonds being issued for the first time in nine years; where the government is seeking to cover the shortfall in their budgets, because of falling oil prices and the war against “Daash.”
The yield on the Iraqi dollar bonds 10.37% , due in 2028, while up in Iraq’s neighboring countries to less than 2% according to the private borrowing from the international market data. Prior to the bond offering, Iraq received a negative credit rating of my organization, “Standard & Poor’s” and “Fitch”, based in the United States, where They noted the existence of credit risk.
Because results are encouraging and “expensive” that the cost of such bonds Ministry of Finance announced , on October 12 last, stop the release plan.
Fadel said the Prophet and the undersecretary of the ministry, said that “Iraq suspended its plans to issue international bonds because the yield to be paid will be very high.”
He gave no further details and it was unclear whether it was possible to revive the plan future.
It attributed the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives by Majida al-Tamimi, the government’s decision not to prejudice allocations of staff as “a response to the reference to calls and staff after they had intended to reduction of the nominal salary and allowances of the employees covered.”
considers al-Tamimi told the “world” on Saturday, said the trend about employees’ salaries to provide additional sums of money “represents a Trqieia; it is necessary that the government is working to pressure the expenses of ministries and feminine petty Minister and Aivadathm.” He revealed politicians and former government officials for petty cash that ministers and senior officials in the government exceed 2 trillion dinars, including rental and restoration of homes and furnished, and open invoices phones, as well as the ongoing Alaivadat throughout the year. Tamimi and indicate that “the members of the House of Representatives’ salaries were reduced, since three months, from 12 million to 6 million dinars.” Tamimi asserts that the “floating dollar” had been proposed by specialists on the central bank and the government, but up to now there is no direction to adopt that process.
Expects the sources to rise the dollar exchange rate with flotation to 1,500 Iraqi dinars for every one dollar . There are three ways to deal with the central banks of hard currency; the first is made up of “limiting factor” to be adopted by the CBI, which includes a fixed exchange rate to the dollar, and inject dollars into the market to maintain the stability of this price. The second method is called “float”, and thumb the market is controlled exchange rate, while the third method includes a “floating orbit”, or unrestricted determine the specific price of the dollar, and another represents a maximum him, to let the currency float between these two prices. The Haitham al-Jubouri, a member of the Finance Committee in the House of Representatives suggested in a statement to “the world”, the adoption of “unrestricted flotation” in the currency auction instead of “limiting factor”, adding that his committee suggested the central bank and the government to adopt this way “being the best, and certified In most countries of the world.
“In the opinion on behalf of Jamil Anton, an economist, said in an interview to the correspondent of” the world “, said the adoption of” floating dollar “in the current situation which is going through the country, rather than” limiting factor “in place by the Central Bank,” will solve the problem of lack of financial liquidity that the government experiencing now, “persisting but that” will not last long “, because it would cause economic problems cast a shadow over all market activities, which suffer a deterioration in infrastructure. explains Anton, he was at the forefront of these problems,” drop value of the dinar against other currencies, as well as the decline in the value of savings of citizens, compared with a rise of imported goods and prices of goods “, which leads to the result to” a large and chronic increase in inflation.
“Anton adds that the survival of the Iraqi economy dependent on imports, not production, makes it float Currency in any way “is not true”, it also “There is no government control on the doors of exchange; it is still corrupt deals swallow up the bulk of the budgets.”
So asserts Anton, who is close to government decision-making sources, that “the adoption of the flotation process the government is not on the table now, “calling on government bodies responsible and the central bank to expand economic revenue base, to get out of the financial crisis experienced by Iraq.
We also heard recent news of the continuance of the project to distribute the lower denominations being circulated to the banks once again. Another GOLDEN NUGGET. These are nuggets we should be watching for. Let me explain.
I know for a fact that the lower denominations to be used in the RV were printed in the USA. I also know that in last spring 2015 not all the needed lower denominations needed for Iraq to launch the RV were flown over to the Middle East. Now this has all changed.
Sources now tell us that the plan is to have these lower denominations replace the provisional post war 3 zero notes. When they launch these notes out to the public they must also at the same time continue the project to delete the zeros. Do you get the connection? Can you see now why the economists are also debating that aspect at this same timeframe?
Now let me shake up your memory a bit. Do you remember last March timeframe when we heard intel from Iraq that the CBI has begun delivering the lower denominations to the banks? All the so called intel “gurus” jumped on their bandwagons and once again used this bit of information to get you all hyped up about an imminent RV. Then it didn’t happen they wondered why once again too. They did not look at the entire picture and did not have the pulse of what was REALLY happening in Iraq. They missed the most important part of that story last spring.
Then later about mid April I came to tell you that they had to postpone the continuance of this project due to ISIS. They were afraid that some of these northern provinces were about to be overrun by the bad guys. Of course the first thing they do is loot the banks and stores. So the second shipment of these notes never made it to the Middle East back then and they thought it safer to leave them in the USA.
Now the have reached Iraq and they plan to continue the distribution effort. Why now?
First, it is because we have heard recently that these provinces, once held by ISIS, are now freed and safe. Second, they are preparing for the late Dec 2015/ early Jan 2016 possible RV if the situation continues on the path of security and safety that is evolving today. All is looking very promising and better for this timeframe they have given me.
Could the RV go prior to late December? Sure it could and anything is possible in this situation. However as you can see there are still a few pieces they need to put in place prior to the RV. Setting up these lower denominations is just one of them. It is what you don’t know you don’t know that amazes you later and keeps you guessing and asking yourself – “How could I ever thought they could RV back then without this or that”?
So I can whole heartedly tell you they have NOT YET LAUNCHED the newer lower denominations to the general public and are still using the 3 zero notes but mostly US dollars and SMART cards. They are simply now stocking them in the bank vaults for when the time comes. This is only a continuation of the preparation phase that was postponed last spring of this year.
This event does not surprise me since it is being done on the heals of a major effort to expose the money laundering and bring those responsible to justice. Just last week an intense audit with assistance from the UN was done on the major banks of Iraq. Why?
They needed to find out where all the Iraq currency was going and to stop any money laundering and funding of ISIS through Iranian banks from Iraq prior to any RV. I talked about this to you in my past posts. Now we see them bringing over the last batch of the lower denominations into Iraq from safeguarding them from ISIS in the USA. This is very interesting but expected.
Over the weekend we heard that the coalition forces along with the Iraqi army have taken back many of the stronghold regions from ISIS and are about to lead a very, large major offensive to retake Mosul in the coming days. We have always known retaking Mosul was the key to the final demise of ISIS in Iraq. This would give the level of security Iraq needs to RV. They have tried an offensive twice before unsuccessfully to retake this region. This time will be different. Don’t be surprised if they have another internet black out in the coming days due to this effort. I can assure you it is not for the RV…..lol…..
We also heard news of files possessed by Chalibi that will add to the case of corruption against these very high ranking officials of the past Maliki administration (as if they don’t have enough already….lol…). The info in these files will be the final nail that will seal their fate on the gallows. These trials I can assure you will be conducted prior to any RV. What is the timeframe?
I am hearing they are already setting up for these trials and have the offense all laded out. It is a matter of time and they have not yet announced it. We have found out earlier in the week arrest warrants were issued for these officials but even the security forces were afraid to serve the warrants on them. So we know they are VERY high ranking and there is still enough stigma and influence by their group to threaten the families of these soldiers. So they are afraid to go and arrest them.
What I am hearing now is they plan to use a joint swat team of Iraqi and coalition soldiers to serve these warrants and do it very soon. We stand by and wait for further news. Meanwhile these men are under house arrest. In fact this may be happening now as I write this news letter.
Can see now how these events are all interconnected and just flow along. This is reality. It is not hard to expect the news we are getting as what else must happen?
We know they need security in Iraq for an RV this what we have been told in countless articles and by the governor of the CBI himself. So when we hear good news of success in regions previously held by ISIS what would you then expect? It all flows together and I hope you all see it now. It is not a guessing game or a game of making up intel for your conference calls. What intel gathering is, is taking the events one at a time and relating them to past and future events. But to do this you must make an EFFORT and get off you lazy butts and do your homework. I am speaking to all you so called “gurus” out there in this dinar community who confuse and distress everyone each week with this stupid ongoing RV hysteria. This must stop and you must learn how to gather intel correctly and present it to the people.
I always said that when Mnt Goat gets excited you truly also should be excited. But I am now excited not because some drunken intel “guru” told you it was going to RV this weekend because I know better.
Instead I am excited because I expose to you a trends in the news that we have been long awaiting for. These key events are showing us the path to the timeframe of late Dec 2015 / early Jan 2016. These are the same trends we witnessed in 2012 when we know for a hard fact that Dr Shabibi intended to move the RV forward. Well….here we are again folks.
I have been very careful not to get into RV hysteria over these last 5 months since June but I have to tell you it is getting better and better as we near December. Let’s see what other golden nuggets they bring us in these coming weeks.
Do we all now know hat we should be looking for?
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All.
Publicado por Dinaresgurus.blogspot.com
FORO DINAR GURUS