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Tuesday, November 10, 2015

BGG & FIREFLY TIDBITS, 10 NOV

BGG   Article quote:  "the Council of Ministers may ask the Central Bank "soon" to leave the currency auction and resorting to "float the dollar"; because according to sources provides state what it called "significant returns Dinareh", to feed the state treasury, the dollar exchange rate...

While I am not sure it's going to be some measure of a "float" (though it may well be what they finally resort to)... what is VERY INTERESTING is the timing.  ...

it fully appears they are headed towards some currency adjustment with the intent of bridging this budget gap...  It sounds like to me - (the "float" term could mean several things)... they are intent on something happening soon.  ...

my opinion (and that is all it is...) - if such an event occurs - it will likely move up very quickly (relatively speaking, of course)...

IMHO - it won't take long to reach a realistic value (and that is what would help their budget).
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Firefly:    IMO it will RI to its former rate plus 20% for inflation according to documents then it will remain a managed float of 2% up or down.  This is just my opinion basing it on documents. 

Remember...NOBODY knows what it will actually come out at.  The WB and IMF put something into International banking law a few years back so unless it has changed I'm sticking with it. 

1:1 would not help them...IMO.  They need money and they need it now.  

They only have one chance to get this right.   Any miscalculations could cause disaster... AND...Their debt is much higher than a 1:1 could fulfill.  
Q:  [do you think a chance this year?] 

Firefly:  I don't do dates but would be very surprised if it did...get out of 2015 that is.  I know one thing for fact...They wouldn't be doing all this talking and planning unless they intended to do something and SOON. I'm expecting something soon.  I believe they are very close.

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