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Friday, October 23, 2015

TNT :What Forex Means to US Now by IKO WARD, 23 OCT

Hello Everyone,

This post is to help folks understand what Forex is and what it is not in reference to our investment. No doubt, experienced Forex Traders will have their own opinions but please try and limit your input to the topic.

Some basics. Forex is an organization the international banks and financial entities use to help them conduct various international currency transactions. These are multi-million dollar deals. They are most famous for currency trading and speculation, but they serve an entire industry based on the fiat system of economics. It is very complex, and much of it depends on hi-level access and insider knowledge. For a basic primer, see 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_exchange_market

For the past two years I have been studying Forex in relation to the basket currencies to see how it relates to other intel we’ve been getting. I found there was a pattern. Every time a serious, verifiable attempt was made at an RV, Forex clearly showed a favorable rise in the Dinar rate the night before. As more and more examples were proven, this became an indicator. Over the past six months this has become an acceptable method of helping to track the RV. It is not the sole indicator, but one of many. The nice thing about it is the black and white nature of the data. Numbers don’t lie, sort of. 

Forex is worth monitoring now because they are setting trading spreads for their clients based on what the CBI leaks and what they are hearing from their high-level contacts in the three letter agencies. We get to see these spreads every day and interpret their meaning for our own needs. What we always must bear in mind is Forex exists for the banks and big traders, not for the little guy. My favorite description of Forex likens it to a snake infested island surrounded by shark infested waters. Forex would not exist without the Fiat Currency. So it is a fictional overlay on a fictional system. It’s money made out of thin air and digital manipulation.

1- Forex does not set the international rate for Dinar. The CBI does that. But the CBI is also playing games, so right now Forex can only suggest a daily rate. That is why they always go back to the CBI’s 1166 at least once a day.

2- After the RV Forex may or may not be posting rates. The CBI may or may not be posting rates in the first few days, but eventually the CBI will be the sole arbiter of the rates. Platforms like Oanda and XE will be posting rates also and your bank may have another rate entirely. In the first few days you’re going to have to do your homework or trust your bank. I will be looking at as many rate posters as I can find.

3- Whether or not you think it is worth watching Forex pre-RV is your choice, but a great many people who seem to know what they are talking about have adopted this indicator as part of their portfolio. I continue to see it as valuable.

As always, whenever I try to define Forex and it’s relevancy to our investment I fall short. Maybe the simplest thing to say is right now it is worth monitoring, but once we have an official RV it may not. The trick to monitoring Forex is to take all the other intel out there and then mix it in. The best you will get is an informed guesstimate. But the Empire State Building was built on an informed guesstimate. No one had ever built a steel girder building that tall. We’re just going to have to wait and see.

Best
Iko

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