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Monday, September 28, 2015

MNT. GOAT UPDATE, 28 SEPT

UU6811 – “A New Sheriff in Town” by Mnt Goat

Hello Everyone,

The familie Oktoberfest trip to Munchen was absolutely amazing this year. We are now back home safe and working in gasthaus preparing for the winter tourist season. I told Meinen Hubby and bier he is going to have to diet till Christmas….lol….

Oktoberfest time is a nice tradition in Germany and many other European countries because it marks just the beginning of a cooler season, a long season of harvest leading to Christmas and snow covered peaks of the Alps. We feel the climate change as the first frost is just around the corner.

Remember early October is coming upon us very quickly. Will October this year finally be our season of harvest for the Iraq dinar investment? There is a target in place and I believe they are pushing forward to attempt to meet it. They already missed many targets as these reforms took them beyond their plan. The big question is will Iraq be ready?  This can not go on forever.
So the majority of last week was Iraq celebrating their Eid holiday. There was lots of news but mainly it seemed to be geared around the corrupt and the guilty politicians throwing stones at Abadi and his reforms and then Abadi coming out and defending his reforms. He was telling everyone once again he is NOT GOING TO BACK DOWN and there is a new sheriff in town….lol….

So there is always news and lots of it these days from Iraq. But in analyzing it overall I have to say we are at a lull right now  but I expect this week to get very interesting as it progresses. From the past this slower period usually means something huge is on the horizon and I think perhaps we are about to see this “package” of laws of the remaining reforms get passed. The National Guard law is a biggie and is ready for parliament now. I also believe these laws and the progress in the fight against ISIS is the key to the RV. Will Iraq finally be ready?

Today’s News

Today is Monday September 28th and still no RV. I also want to say that when Iraq is ready to revalue their currency and come back as an international player it will just happen. NOTHING WILL STOP IT. There are no boogie men, conspiracies or foreign countries with issues holding it back each weekend, as some make you believe.

So once again another weekend passed and all the hype about an RV window for the end of September. Today they will tell you September is not yet over and we can still see it.

I am telling you they are crazy and we will not see an RV this week. They did not even bother to look at the big picture when they hyped you up last week on  this RV saga.  I will once again try to tell you the big picture if you want to know. Do you want to know?

So what will happen next when the RV does not happen in their so called window of opportunity by end of September?

These so called intel “gurus”  will then give you a new windows for an RV once September fades away. However they will not back it up with any substantiated or proven news. Their game will continue.

Don’t let them stress you out again hoping and wishing for an RV in these windows. Instead look at the news and the reforms needed to complete this “full’ reconciliation. Step back and look at the overall BIG picture.

If these intel “gurus”  do not want to (or can’t ) give you any in-depth, detailed intel  then find another source of intel that can help you understand. Stop beating your head against the wall. Of course if all you want is a date and a rate then suffer through their insane process day after day since they are bound to be correct one day…lol….

The reason we have not seen the RV yet, even though there has been many windows of opportunity planned (and I will not deny these planned windows), it is because THEY HAVE NOT YET COMPLETED THE AGREED TO REFORMS!

The PTB will continue to hold it back until Iraq meets its obligations even though they plan these RV windows ahead of time. Who is planning these RV window timeframes versus who makes the decision are two entirely different entities. Remember Iraq too wants the RV but they also want to be ready and has set many self imposed issues that need addressing. We see these issues in the reforms. Reforms that deal with the corruption, security and stability of the country.

I can not shout it out any louder or any simpler. It is not rocket science…is it? THEY MUST COMPLETE THE AGREED TO REFORMS BEFORE ANY RV!

Define PTB (Powers to Be) meaning any entity that has the political power and influence on making decisions on a country’s policies. Note I did not say legitimate power.

So I have been saying now since June that there are many needed reforms  for the reconciliation process to be completed. The Iraqi president himself has recently stated there will be “full” reconciliation after the upcoming Eid holiday. So today is Monday and the holiday is over. What can we expect?

In my recent past news letters (LINK) I listed what I believe are the needed remaining reforms that need laws to implement them. I will not repeat them in this news letter today.

Out of these reforms there was one that stood out more than the others. This is the most critical reform before any currency is going to be given back to Iraq (currency RV). It is the National Guard and it is all about security. Did I say security- ….security, security, security. Did you hear me?

The law is also the most critical law needed in this issue of fighting ISIS /DAASH and maintaining long term security for Iraq. So today’s news letter is mostly about this reform of the necessity to control these militias throughout Iraq and put them in check somehow. How do they plan to do this?

After you read the article below ask yourself this question- Is this not just common sense? Are there lessons to be learned from the USA’s past with their wild west and how they finally controlled it?

Iraq knows the need to have some sort of government control over these militias or else you just have a “Wild West” situation. Do you know what I mean by this? History repeats itself.

They need the provinces to control the citizens themselves who feel they have a right to defend themselves and carry arms even through this is against the law in Iraq.

So what they need is a new sheriff in town. Some sort of authority to step up and guarantee their safety by organizing and controlling the guns yet also using these (now organized) militias when needed to form a posse to go after the bad guys.

So the sheriff, (some provincial central authority), as to say “take off your guns before you can enter my town” (providence). Then join our guard unit and when we need you we will call upon you to put them back on and defend the providence. We will even help supply the weapons you need to do the job. …and you get to do it legally and get paid for it.

In short this is an analogy of the wild west culture of the past in the USA. As we know one man, a sheriff, would not be able to stand against large bands of criminals. So he would recruit the towns people, a posse to go after the bad guys in times of a crisis. This is not too far from what they plan to do in Iraq.

I am only presenting one article today on this topic….hurray many of you must be cheering….lol…lol.

But this article is so informative and so powerful!

It is the article of which has guided me on this path of knowing just how important the law to institute these National Guard units is to the security situation in Iraq (thus the RV situation). Of course many will still disagree with me but then they do not take the time to truly read what is being said in this interview with the Parliament speaker al-Jubouri. So I present it to you one more time with my “wild west” analogy  in the hope you will read it this time and can better understand it.

By the way the interview with Jubouri was from last June 2015. Does is surprise you of this timeframe? What else took place last June? Was this timeframe a turning point for Iraq? I also want to refresh your memory on what I said in my 7/11 news letter (5 key events). Please go back and re-read it. (LINK)

The article tells us they fully intended to have this National Guard law implemented in July 2015. We all know it did not happen as we found out just how controversial it was. So they are 2 months behind already. But then again when does Iraq ever follow their own timetable?

So here is the article below. They are saying they can not achieve a national reconciliation without taking care of these bands of free running militias. They need a society free of guns and random explosive devices going off killing people. They are telling us that the new National Guard law is part of this solution.

I quote from the article below -  “we must have a political reform and restructuring of the security institutions” based on professionalism and efficiency, rather than the current “system of ethnic and sectarian quotas,”

In other words get rid of the bad guys running around unchecked and have them come and join the sheriff in the fight against crime (or join the national guard units).

So when president Fraud Masum comes out last week and tells us they will have “full” reconciliation after Eid holiday he is also telling us all the laws needed to implement the needed reforms for full reconciliation will also be done. Does this make logical sense to you?  Jabouri has already told us last June that the National Guard law is part of it. Their words not mine…NO hype, No rumors, just the FACTS.

So can we expect to see the National Guard law and these other laws prior to Iraq announcing any kind of conclusion to the “full” reconciliation? We will NOT have any currency reform conclusion without a full reconciliation. I have been telling everyone this now for 4 months. Now you know why. Opps the secret is out of the bag….lol…lol….

Today is 9/28 already and we know their target is 10/1 for “full” reconciliation. So again I ask you this – Will this be a very busy next couple weeks? Will they finally come out with this “basket” of laws all at once?

Article Begins

IRAQ NEEDS POLITICAL RECONCILIATION TO DEFEAT ISIS, PARLIAMENT SPEAKER SAYS AL-JUBOURI URGES COMPROMISE TO ADOPT REFORMS

Published:
June 10, 2015

Iraq must achieve a political reconciliation among its long-divided religious and ethnic groups as a first step toward defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) extremists who control a third of the country, Iraq’s parliament speaker said at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Reconciliation will rely heavily on building police and military forces that those disparate communities can trust, said the speaker, Saleem al-Jubouri.

Al-Jubouri, one of the country’s most prominent Sunni Arab officials, said he hopes to have key legislation passed as early as next month to create a National Guard—a step backed by the U.S. government as an essential step to building confidence and loyalty to the Iraqi state among Sunnis.

As U.S. military trainers work to help Iraq’s army regroup and reverse ISIS’ advance of the past year, a critical part of any Iraqi offensive must be the establishment of inclusive and conciliatory governance in areas restored to state control, al-Jubouri said in a speech and question-and-answer session on June 8 during a visit to Washington for meetings at the White House and with leaders in Congress. The northwestern third of Iraq, seized by ISIS following its capture of the city of Mosul a year ago, is dominated by Sunni Arabs, who have fought for influence in Iraq with the ethnic Kurds of the northeast and the Shia Arabs who are the majority and dominate the south.

Al-Jubouri’s visit follows recent trips to Washington by other top Iraqi leaders, including Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and the president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Massoud Barzani. Speaking at USIP events, al-Abadi and Barzani also called for cooperation among Iraq’s communities to confront ISIS.

In the battle against ISIS extremists, al-Jubouri said, many Sunni Iraqis have hesitated to fight the group, which particularly opposes Shia Islam, because they feel the militants may offer protection from a Shia-dominated government and Shia militias. The spread of ISIS in the Sunni northwest “is a result of the policy of exclusion… during the past few years,” al Jubouri said, speaking in Arabic with interpretation into English.
Sunnis in those areas felt unrepresented within Iraq’s security forces and thus unable to protect themselves, he said. ISIS’ growth also is “a natural result of the administrative and financial corruption that has spread to the military and other institutions of the state,” he told an audience of policy specialists, officials and journalists.
Still, “the situation in Iraq does not call for despair, despite the darkness of the scene,” al-Jubouri said. He thanked the United States and its allies for their help in the past year to confront ISIS, which he referred to by its Arabic-language acronym, Daesh. Iraq’s foreign allies “must multiply their military efforts in our country and increase their aid for the emerging democracy” in Iraq, he said. “There is no alternative but to go into this battle side by side… so that we will have no other terrorist organization grow from the ruins of Daesh to threaten our security and peace.”
At the center of a political reconciliation among Iraqis, “we must have a political reform and restructuring of the security institutions” based on professionalism and efficiency, rather than the current “system of ethnic and sectarian quotas,” al-Jubouri said. He stressed the need for more unified command structures in Iraq’s localities, saying the chaos of the military’s defeats in Mosul and Ramadi was caused largely by a lack of centralized command over pro-government forces.

A Key Step: A National Guard
Al-Jubouri’s presentation reflected the complications of creating a security architecture to underpin the Iraqi state. Al-Jubouri discussed his effort to have the Council of Representatives, or parliament, pass the National Guard bill. He noted that the original legislation aimed to reassure Sunni Arabs by creating Guard units that would be closely rooted and controlled from within their own governorates, or provinces. He said the proposal has been amended to put those units more under central government control, a change that worries Sunni Arabs.
Still, al-Jubouri said, he hopes to pass a bill as early as July. “The law for the National Guard will be the guarantee for the security of the governorates that are threatened,” he said.

And, al-Jubouri, noted, the most basic laws to complete the framing of the state also still need to be passed. “It is important also to approve the unified federal (court) law and to separate the powers of the state and maintain the independence of the judiciary,” he said.

To achieve a broad reconciliation, al-Jubouri called for closer cooperation with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, a Shia, who has sought to ease Sunni-Shia tensions since he took office in September.
In the project of reconciliation, we are partners with [Prime Minister al-Abadi]. – Iraqi Parliament Speaker Saleem al-Jubouri

“We work with him as partners,” said al-Jubouri. “He needs support and he also must take the initiative to implement agreements that have been concluded in the past” among the country’s Sunni, Shia and Kurdish communities. “Because delaying will create a feeling that there is no commitment… In the project of reconciliation, we are partners with him, and we will continue to cooperate with him to achieve it. It is not an easy project; it is not slogans. It is a practical project with commitments on both sides. So my evaluation of this project is (that) it is not up to the required level… not really convincing yet, for me… Definitely the matter requires efforts from everyone in order to achieve it.”
Al-Jubouri also commented that:

Political reforms and public security must be implemented in areas recovered from ISIS. “I put before you some principles that express a comprehensive project for reform … The first issue: We must think about the stability of the areas liberated from their seizure by Daesh, and we must offer a model through which we can motivate those who are still living under the control of Daesh in Nineveh and Anbar (governorates) so that they can do everything possible” to resist the extremist group, al-Jubouri said.

Any Sunni groups that confront ISIS must be assured of better protection than in the past. After Sunni tribes rose up against al-Qaeda in 2005, the Shia-dominated government of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki put many of their fighters on trial for having formed illegal armed groups, al-Jubouri said. They “were charged with carrying weapons against the law; tried and detained.” Now, “if they confront Daesh, who is going to protect them from the state afterwards?… They are looking or someone who can stand by them, and the party they need most is the prime minister,” al-Abadi.

While Iraq should not create lasting militias outside the structure of the state military, such forces will be needed in the short term to defeat ISIS. “We must end all aspects of armed forces outside of the (official state) military,” al-Jubouri said. “Because these are a militarization of society… and an introduction to a totalitarian system and a return to our past that we do not want.” Still, he added: “We must arm the tribes. We cannot eliminate Daesh except with the local population, through coordination with the federal government.” While the United States and its allies are ready to supply weapons through the central government, it is essential “to have guarantees so that these weapons would reach the local population to confront Daesh,” he said. Sunni groups have complained that the Shia-led government has restricted their access to weapons in the past.
June 10, 2015


Article Ends

Next I am presenting an article to you that may seem insignificant but is very important.

So what does this now tell us?

It is my opinion that Abadi is directing all ministries, the judicial council and other applicable offices to wait to appoint acting general managers (proxy positions) until the completion of the process of implementing the reforms package.

First question is who are these General managers being referred to?

Second question is why wait until after the reforms are implemented?
The translation on this article stinks….

So I will try to address the first question. The proxy managers are those substitutes in the leadership positions for those personnel that were dismissed on corruption charges as part of Abadi’s reforms in cleaning up the government. Abadi has the right to place in “proxy” (or temporary) personnel in these positions. He has weeded out the corrupt politicians.

The answer to the second question is that Abadi is asking (directing) them to wait to appoint these proxy positions until the dust settles a bit and to let the other reforms take root, meaning allowing for the savings of the funds that would go to pay for these proxy positions thus allowing a gap in the funding of personnel saving many millions in the process. Do you remember that there were 300+ governmental personnel being dismissed in these corruption charges?  This is a significant savings in salaries that would have to be paid out.  Abadi wants to capitalize on the opportunity to realize these significant savings.

Article Begins

ABADI DIRECTED TO WAIT TO APPOINT GENERAL MANAGERS PROXY

http://center-imn.net/1/?p=34364

BAGHDAD / Center Brief for the Iraqi Media Network (IMN) - the face of the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Petrat ministries and departments not associated with the Ministry and all the provinces and the Supreme Judicial Council, appointed acting general managers until the completion of implementing reforms package.

Indicates an official letter issued by the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers addressed to all ministries and the Judicial Council and the offices of the Conservative and non Almerttabh Bozrah and the offices of the heads of the provincial steering confirm Abadi wait to appoint general managers until the completion of the process of implementing the reforms package.


Article Ends

Then just after this article above was published out pops an article from a recent speech from prime minister  Abadi. In the speech he is talking about a few issues. One is about the limit of government savings has been reached. In other words he is telling us this part of the reform package is over and done. This is an excellent benchmark for us. We see the progression of reforms and laws over the last month on this topic.

But he is also giving a warning too that the extent of the loss funds through corruption can not continue and sustain Iraq into the future and to assure the citizens that they can make a difference in reporting corruption so it can be addressed.

This in itself is a new concept for Iraq and I feel will make a huge difference that now the people (the average citizen) can have a difference. This is the concept Abadi is trying to reinforce in the peoples minds.

There can be a safe and fearless avenue to which to report corruption. I quote from the speach- calling on citizens to "detect any corruption they see in their daily lives, to make the corrupt live in constant fear."

One example that comes to my mind is with the meal cards and how many of these cards were being sold on the black market so the citizens could take the money and buy safe food in the common market rather then eat the spoiled foods from Iran that the card could obtain. If you reported these food scandals or even forced to go along with them, you ended up in jail. Do you remember these articles from years past?

He is also talking about fighting ISIS and I quote Abadi, saying, "We are going to break Daash military and intelligence we need to pursue him."

But I feel the very significant part of this article is he is telling us the Russians are now also joining in on the fight against ISIS and Iraq is sharing intelligence on this fight with Russia. “A military source in Moscow revealed on Saturday (28 September 2015), an agreement between Russia and Syria, Iraq and Iran to create an information center in Baghdad, comprising representatives of the bodies of Staff of the armies of these four countries”.

So we see Abadi is being successful in getting a multi-international coalition together himself in the fight against ISIS / DASSH. This is all very good and will create yet more stability for Iraq. It is good also in that thru the UN they are taking charge themselves of this fight and no relying so much on a USA led coalition anymore even though we all know the USA is still assisting and advising in this effort with them.

From the information in this article this is all the kind of stability Iraq needs in its society going forward if it is ever going to realize its great potential and wealth. It is all very good and in the right direction.
Article Begins

ABADI: WE MANAGED TO REDUCE GOVERNMENT SPENDING TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT POSSIBLE

The political system has to be an example to others, pointing to the importance of improving aspects of the economy.

BAGHDAD / obelisk announced Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Monday, that the government has succeeded to reduce its expenses to the maximum extent possible, noting that the political system has to be an example to others through reforms that reduce the gap between the salaries, while calling on citizens to cooperate in the detection of corruption and make " spoilers permanently living in fear. "

Ebadi said in a speech before heading to New York to participate in a United Nations meeting published by the local media and pursued "obelisk", "The government has succeeded to reduce its expenses to the maximum extent possible," noting that "the reforms reduce the gap between citizens and officials, through the revision of salaries state employees. "

He said al-Abadi, that "the political system has to be an example to others," noting "the importance of improving aspects of the economy."

The prime minister assured Haider al-Abadi, on Wednesday (23 September 2015), corruption "terrorism" of another kind, the corrupt in what was described as "the owners of mafias and gangs."

Abadi stressed "the need to stop the waste and the fight against corruption", calling on citizens to "detect any corruption they see in their daily lives, to make the corrupt live in constant fear."

On the other hand said al-Abadi, said that "Iraq intelligence committees established with several countries to fight Daash, noting that" Iraq has the intelligence cooperation with Germany, Jordan and several countries interested in fighting organization. "

He said al-Abadi, that "Russia in the recent period have shown Ahtama fight Daash to the presence of Russian citizens in its ranks, and they pose a threat to Russia's security in the event of their return."

He stressed Abadi, saying, "We are going to break Daash military and intelligence we need to pursue him."
He was a diplomat, a military source in Moscow revealed on Saturday (28 September 2015), an agreement between Russia and Syria, Iraq and Iran to create my information center in Baghdad, comprising representatives of the bodies of Staff of the armies of the four countries.


Article Ends

Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!

Peace and Luv To Ya All,
Mnt Goat

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