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Tuesday, December 23, 2014

MNT. GOAT UPDATE : "What? No RV?", 23 DEC

UU9944 – “It’s Almost Christmas Eve- What No RV?”  by Mnt Goat

Hi Everyone,

In preparation for Weihnachten(Christmas Day) , many families in Germany celebrate Advent as many in USA also do. This is a time of religious preparation for the arrival of das Christkind (or the Christ Child).

Traditional advent activities include the Adventskranz (Advent wreath), which our church set up on the 4th Sunday before Christmas Day, the beginning of the season. Four candles adorn the wreath, and a new one is lit each week. Now we have 4 candles already lit last Sunday so we are very close to Christmas day.
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In my home our celebration prior to each main meal is special. We sing Christmas carols as we gather around the wreath in the center of our dinning table to celebrate the preparation and the Christmas season and to give thanks for the coming of the Christ child and for our delicious meal (of course its delicious I prepare it….lol) .

Our two children also enjoy the advent calendar. But his can be tricky. In Germany these are very popular and easy to find in stores. They contain twenty-four doors (one for each day of December leading up to Christmas).

 Our children anticipate each morning prior to heading off to school to open one door each day, they then find a chocolate treat awaiting them inside.

Many of the calendars also include pictures inside the doors, often Christmas-related. The problem comes when you have more than one child. What do you do with the chocolate?

All you parents know exactly what I mean. So a solution Meine Hubby suggested was to take turns each day as to who gets the prize. This is cooperation, negotiation and it well suited to teach Meine Kinder manners.

I tell this story to you because this advent season is especially special to me. This is the 10th advent season in this dinarland for me and my family. I know deep in my heart it will be the last.

Each season I say to myself and Meine Hubby – will this be the last season without RV? Will we finally be done with this rollercoaster ride? The answer I get back from Meine Hubby each year in a sweet, low, loving tone (along with a nice hug) as he says that God will bring us this gift on his time.

 He then says that he too enjoys reading my news letters and will miss them greatly. Imagine that? - Meine Hubby is a fan of mein too…..lol….

I have to say this entire process has been long, at times very hard but I would do it all over again for you fine folks who truly appreciated the efforts. Remember I have a family and a job to care for too. I watched my two girls grow through this adventure. Ten years is a long time.

The tele calls overseas are expensive and the hours are long. I never asked for any money from anyone since I have no web site or conference calls.

 I am sure I would have enjoyed meeting many of you personally however the bad apples sneak in with the good apples and so precautions must be take to protect my family.

This was one condition and an agreement I had with Meine Hubby prior to taking on this job of news letters. So I respected his wish. You can blame him for my autonomy….lol….

But  in this last holiday season with you I just wanted to say I will miss all your encouraging emails and replies to my news letters.  Truly have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous $$$ New Year !

So now down to the business of this news letter.

I wanted  given everyone a very brief news letter today. I will get right to the point once again. I hope everyone also read my last news letters dated 12/22 since this is a continuation of this ongoing saga of getting this 2015 budget bill passed thus showing us the way to the RV event.

Today’s News

Here are some updates on the areas of concern we are now watching for as key indicators as to how close we really are in this RV process and current demands from the USA on Iraq prior to pulling the RV trigger.

2015 Budget Law

Very early yesterday, Tuesday 12/23 (or some say very late on Monday 12/22),  the Iraqi cabinet of ministers approved the draft budget bill for fiscal 2015 and sent it to the Parliament for approval. Hurry!

We should all now be very excited !

What does this mean?

This means that Abadi’s cabinet or GOI has completed working with the finance ministry and financial committee to revise the 2015 budget to slim down expenditures and adjust the revenues per new oil prices. This has been a very nerving task for them since they were under extreme pressure and a short deadline.

We have been waiting for this to be completed since last Thursday when it was promised to be completed in many news articles and in an interview with Abadi himself.

 Iraq then later came out over the weekend and told us it would be done by Monday or Tuesday instead, a short delay. Meanwhile the USA was geared up to complete the rollout for the RV late last week since Iraq had told them they would be completed by late last week.

 We were all excited to see the RV last weekend. Of course it did not happen and we now all know why. This a short recap of the past week’s events.

Now what can we expect going forward?

So now that Parliament now has been given the revised draft budget bill we are being told it will take up to 2 weeks for Parliament to review it and bring it to a vote on the House floor. This timeframe will bring us to about Jan 5th to expect the voting process to even take place.

But hold on ! Now here is the tricky part.

Does the USA and Iraq agree on the same requirement of budget bill to be passed in parliament or just approved by the cabinet of ministers.  Is there a level setting of expectations ?

Will parliament reject the bill and will it have to go through yet another iteration once again in the finance ministry, thus the process begins again?  This will remain uncertain since we don’t know how parliament will react to the bill.

I am being told that the USA is once again gearing up for the RV rollout as they waited for the news of the Cabinet approval and then their submission today to parliament.

So now will Iraq trigger the RV or wait for the passage in the Iraqi House of Representatives first? Will the USA block it or let it go if they do RV now?

What really is the real requirement?

Since today is now very close to Christmas Eve 12/24 and still Iraq has not triggered their RV,  we now can safely say Iraq is waiting to get the budget passed in Parliament prior to taking any action to RV?

I have waited to send out this news letter to let you know until I was informed this is the case. This is not rumor but now factual.

Once again communications between the USA and Iraq CBI is not all that good. Improper assumptions were made past week and as a result we all got hyped up. Once again they did not properly align their expectations. I think they lose something in the Arabic to English translations.

This may have been the case now for months now in this ongoing saga of -  it’s going to RV every day or any day stuff. You would think with something as important as this the UST could be more competent in this matter. Just my observation !

Yes - they (Iraq) are going to wait until the budget is passed in Parliament prior to triggering their RV. This is now a fact and not a rumor or guessing game any longer. If I know whey doesn’t the UST know it?

 So we know that there is about a 2 week window for parliament to review the draft and bring it to the floor for a vote.  We should now not expect to be at the banks anytime prior to the first or second week in January at the earliest if all goes well.

However let’s not give up hope of an earlier RV not just yet. I will explain later in this news letter.

House Support for a Speedy Passage of Budget

What we do know is last weekend President Fuad Masum and Parliament Speaker Salim al-Jubouri, stressed the need to speed up the passage of laws that affect the lives of citizens.

He said a presidential statement, the agency {Euphrates News received} copy of it on the "infallible received in his office today Jubouri, was discussed the political process and the most important obstacles and challenges they face, and the need to deepen the harmony of the positions taken by the political blocs and higher institutions of the state that in order to keep up with the current stage on Using defeat terrorism. "

"The infallible and al-Jubouri, stressing the need to speed up the passage of laws that affect the daily lives of citizens directly, especially the ratification of the general budget of the state."

Will it take the Full 2 Weeks in Parliament?

It is said the normal process through parliament could take as long as 2 weeks prior to a voting session, however Abadi has expressed the urgency to Jubouri to use an emergency session to speed it through the house.

We can see from the article above in the conversation for the news media between Masum (the president) and Jubouri (the speaker of the house) that they both agreed to the urgency of Abadi’s request and will do their best to “push” it through once parliament receives the bill.

I know for a fact Iraq has been targeting the end of 2014 to get the budget passed in Parliament so they can open it and hit the ground running in 2015.

Why the Urgency?

They want to target the end of 2014 to complete the budget law and have a new currency value by early January, as it  is reflected and needed to implement the budget at that time.

They need a global currency for so many reasons. One I will explain below for the upcoming tariff implementation and another is for implementation of their 2015 budget, based on the new rate.

Oh – one more off the top of my head….all those hundreds of contracts they signed last month for reconstruction projects?

Wouldn’t  it be much easier to pay on current rates and use FOREX rates for inter banking transactions for payments between Iraq and contracting countries instead of this mixed up system they are now struggling with.  I can go on and on with many more reasons but you heard them all by now.

As a result we all can appreciate just how critical is now is for Iraq to RV and open their new budget.

Upcoming National Reconciliation Meeting

I am also tracking this meeting and I know it is still scheduled to take place at the end of this month of December. This is next week and we are very close. This is a very significant meeting and note worthy to track for us dinarians.

It is my belief they plan to use this meeting as a vehicle to give the country of Iraq a “report card” to the citizens of Iraq on the accomplishments and progress of the new government of Iraq so far in the making good on its promises in line wit the negotiated 27 reforms and other issues.

The almost unbelievable past is that I have a contact in Iraq that has shown me a translated copy of the Prime Minister’s Al- Abadi proposed speech that will be presented at this meeting, when it does occur. There are some amazing announcements in the meeting such as:

> to the conclusion to DAASH and ISIS fighting in Iraq (Abadi’s perspective)

> the passing of the 2015 budget

> full implementation of the Tariff Law

> the passing and implementation of the other needed laws i.e. HCL, other 27 Reforms

> once again the loading of the Qi cards - remember its end of month once again and Iraq must make yet another payment to the retirees, food program, employees, soldiers, gov’t employees, etc…

> Reinstatement of  Dr Shabibi heading their CBI

> Financial Reforms are completed (currency revalued now in  Article 8 UN charter)

> major reconstruction projects about to begin (he will take about them)

> rollout of new rate and the need to standardize throughout Iraq

> some patriotic stuff …..la.la.la….

So you see the Iraqi government has been very busy these last few months.
My Opinion

So first I find it interesting that Abadi’s speech is already written. Second is the content of the speech as I listed in my summary. Third is that we must be very close to have a HUGE and I mean HUGE breakthrough in this entire suite of new laws. 

For Iraq in the conclusion of this process with the revaluation and finally, yes finally the international rollout we have all been waiting for.

Questions as always – Will the meeting occur on time? And will all the necessary events be completed as Iraq has targeted so they can conduct the meeting?

SUMMARY

 I have to tell you this entire budget bill is now in warp drive in Iraq. I do believe they will pass this law prior to or around Christmas day 12/25 and not take the expected 2 weeks more like 2 days. 

I know this seems impossible knowing Iraq but I am hearing they have advisors from the USA and UN are going to “guillotine” the process.

Some members of Parliament have already expressed their desire not to rush the bill however the speaker of the House Jubouri has stated they will not leave this current session until it is done. He is putting pressure on them.

This is only my gut feeling. I have been wrong before, but right many any more times than wrong…lol….

After the bill has passed the House, they plan to pull the trigger on the RV, then hold their reconciliation meeting and announce to the world the New Iraq is OPEN for business.

So here is the game plan in the USA as told to me by my UST contact - If the USA supports the RV, they will then begin the group exchanges on or around Friday 12/26 and continue up to New Years day Jan1st.

 They are still contemplating whether to give an additional 7 days for group exchanges prior to rolling it out. We will soon hear the final plan.

Then the USA will complete the final rollout to the general public as the exchanges and the banks will get the new rates during the first or second week of January. This is their current game plan as it was relayed to me from Iraq/USA correspondence. It could change depending on how it goes in Iraq.

Then when can we expect the RV?

Let’s just say this – If you have not yet gone out and purchased your bottle of champagne. I would do it now and get it chilled and ready…..lol…..!  

We are only 7 days remaining till 2015 and all indications now are we are back on track to see the 800# and begin group exchanges later this week with the final RV rollout then  taking place in early January 2015.

 It is truly your choice to wait for the final rollout or participate in the 800# for one of the group exchanges for dinarland holders. Either way the end of our long wait is very near.

Let your hearts be light, your cares be few, and all of your wishes just might come true.

May I wish you all a Merry Christmas and a very r$ch good year !

Peace and Luv To Ya All,  Mnt Goat

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