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Wednesday, July 10, 2013

MTNGOAT UPDATE, 11 JULY

MtnGoat: Hi Everyone.

I hope I am not repeating myself since I was not done with writing my post and somehow I hit a key and my screen closed. I hate when that happens. I can't find it anywhere so I guess it got deleted? I will start again. But in case you also catch a half completed post somewhere please  ignore it. This is the real deal. 

It is nice to be on TNTDINAR and I hope we all stay friendly over here. Lets get down to business of this post.

This morning I talked to 3 contacts in Iraq. This is what they told me. Remember I am only repeating the news as I get it.

To make you understand I have to regress a bit to the past so bear with me. Okay?
As we know the  SMART cards were activated but only in certain beta tests users and a % distribution in each providence.

They needed to know they worked prior to doing the entire rollout countrywide. They used a rate of $3.44 as we know. They had to go live with some. Once these tests where done they had to rollout the rest in groups.
Second, if you remember Iraq had technical difficulties rolling out the activation of the cards. It took entirely too long, longer than the planned 10 days they told the IMF. They requested a 48 hour extension window and they got the extension.

After the 48 hours they are still not completed. The IMF was not so happy to put it simply.

Next a huge meeting took place to look at the impacts of going full international RV while they complete the SMART card activations. The IMF decided to go ahead anyway with the RV. Incidentally many of the articles you are seeing from Iraq about removing the zeros are from the frustrations of the Economic and Finance ministries telling the CBI to go ahead with the final project to remove the zeros.

The translations of these articles are not so good. Also they must cover their butts with the population since they don't want riots. Someone has to take the blame someone.  The CBI had begun the project already but they wanted the people to believe that the CBI was the bad guy and hold up.

Someone had to take the blame. Its all politics.  Most citizens over there would not even believe what is really going on so why tell them. We know from our perspective it is held up due to the rate not showing up internationally as of yet.

The CBI is working with the IMF to get it done. There is so much now at stake. I was told to disregard all the articles about starting the project to remove the zeros. Its already done. Its all just a cover story.

Over to a call to the IMF contact today-

I asked the contact - So why don't we see it international and at the banks as of yet, if in fact it did RV?  he said, oh ! ....it did RV for sure. The CBI let it go already.So the saga continues......

So I asked then what is taking so long for us to see it? He answered-

The IMF had to run the algorithms to assign the new rates again since the clock kept ticking with all the additional days. This should have been no big deal. As you may know the algorithm balances out the rates among countries according to the assets of that country. It assigns a new rate. There are maximum thresholds on the rates. Once the code runs they check the rates.

Since this has been held for the SMART card issues the plan changed. Other currencies slotted for the second basket had to be moved over to the first basket. Why..I was not given that information. But it happened and there were impacts when they did it.

Some of the rates got flagged were too high. They are now trying to fix the code to get the rates to balance again. They will continue but even when they do get it right there is still timing issues to contend with since financial institutions, time zones, etc,, must coincide when they roll out this many changes in currencies all at once.

I am told they expect to have it completed today and we should see the new rates later today or tomorrow early. Remember I said expect to get it done today. It is not me promising anything. If it was up to me we would have been at the bank and back home already...lol,...

If they don't fix it we could be sitting here waiting longer. Then again who is to say more issues of another nature don't crop up. Once they roll the rates out it will show on the CBI site too at the same time.

Later FOREX will get it and away we go...Some of the banks are seeing changes in the rates pushed down to them and some don't. These rates are just test rates. There will be a final push once they are ready. So we should ignore these inactive rates for now and don't go into a hype it you see something crazy again.

In summary all I can say is it was a mess!  Plain and simple. Like a soap on American TV...lol..That was the overall feeling I got. We all would think that something of this magnitude would be well organized and work like clockwork.

That is just not the case. Maybe the next baskets will go more smoothly. The good news is we are almost there and this could be our week to finally see it. I wish I could give you a more specific date for sure but I can't.

I will try to bring more news when I get it. Peace and Luv to the new TNTDinar community. Mnt Goat

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