Expert: the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar will fall more in the coming days by the actions of the Central Bank of effective
30.9.2012 | (Voice of Iraq)
Baghdad (news) Chief Economist Majid picture, that the U.S. dollar in freefall and Sesawe Iraqi dinar exchange rate in the next few days, praising measures the central bank “successful” to reduce the dinar exchange rate against the dollar. said Suri (of the Agency news) today Sunday: One of the important factors for the high exchange rate of the dollar against the dinar in the summer months the past is the high demand and tight supply and exploitation of banking companies for citizens to raise the price of the dollar, prompting the central bank to increase supply in the currency auction. added: that the success of actions the central bank to reduce dollar against the dinar would make dollar equals Iraqi dinar per the next few days. confirmed the picture: the decline of the dollar was limited only to demand cash and not remittances, noting that the transfer obtained by the merchant through banks and banking companies circulated at the official rate, The cash demand by citizens through banking offices fell to its dependence on the supply and demand factor.
http://www.sotaliraq.com/mobile-news.php?id=72841#ixzz27wuhAqCc
[Shredd] grashopa i like his comments and agree the whole reference to the price/exchange rate could simply be referring to the target of getting back to a true 1166
[Shredd] because it hasn’t been for a while
[Shredd] the article that I commented on had language that seemed to talk about much more
[Shredd] than the one we saw a few days earlier about the auctions
[Shredd] so, we’ll see
[Shredd] but the cbi wants the trading across the board
[Shredd] to be consistant
[Shredd] they’ve made that clear
[Shredd] so, we may see a “success” article soon that trading is back to 1166 and they are all happy
[Shredd] while we roll our eyes
[grashopa] but…….if they did go to 1-1………….that would insure equal trading……….right?
[Shredd] it will still be a managed float, so not necessarily
[Shredd] see, and that’s why I commented beyond the point of auctions
[Shredd] i mean if any of you have travelled abroad
[Shredd] you may know that when you want to exchange money
[Shredd] you may get a different rate
[Shredd] depending on who you cash in with
[Shredd] this is normal
[Shredd] so, why the big focus for the CBI if their target is to simply return to 1166 in the auctions
[Shredd] not sure
[Shredd] i think it is more than that
[Shredd] reform
[Shredd] get the procedures down
[Shredd] consistent
[Shredd] which sets the stage for a more stable platform
[Shredd] for the changes we are all looking for
[Shredd] whether managed or free
[Shredd] imo, shabbs wants to know that when this rate changes
[Shredd] it’s not gonna be all over the place
[Shredd] you know?
[Shredd] don’t want to shake confidence right out of the box
[Shredd] and this consistency is not for the merchants imo
[Shredd] it’s bank to bank, maybe traders too
[Shredd] that’s a shoe that fits imo
[Shredd] hope that makes sense
[Shredd] over here in the US
[Shredd] you see this consistency
[Shredd] when our FX desk trades
[Shredd] we have three levels
[Shredd] the real rate
[Shredd] the quib rate (qualified institutional buyer)
[Shredd] and the street rate
[Shredd] i called them and discussed a while back
[Shredd] very structured while back
[Shredd] shabbs is the boss when it comes to banking compliance for his country
[grashopa] it does…………..but what about the” single window ” they spoke of before?…………and that all exchange would be through the CBI…ONLY
[Shredd] so, to me, all the auction articles about lowering the trading rate points to that
Shredd] well, the word “window”
[Shredd] in banking
[Shredd] refers to the trading window
[Shredd] which again verifies my thinking (two cents worth, i know )
[Shredd] so, trading
[Shredd] simply means the auctions
[Shredd] and his target to return to a consistent 1166
[Shredd] reform this sucker
[Shredd] so when we see movement
[Shredd] either managed or free, it will act as expected
[Shredd] that Majid economist seem to be talking about more than the trading imo
[Shredd] 1. “high demand and tight supply” – although this can affect the auctions, the cash being traded in the auctions is cyclical….supply and demand is more powerful when in the context of daily transactional use….citizens, businesses and daily banking (which we see mentioned later in this article!).
[Shredd] 2. “the success of actions the central bank to reduce dollar against the dinar would make dollar equals Iraqi dinar per the next few days.” – ah, there it is again…the wonderful word “equals”!! …..and even better, it says in the next few days. Now, I know, I know….we’ve seen that phrasing before….but look back in history….I know that at least in a few cases, when that phrase was used, that was the intent, but then unexpected delays happened.
[Shredd] 3. “The cash demand by citizens through banking offices fell to its dependence on the supply and demand factor.” – I had to read this line a few times but to me, this is saying that the demand by the citizens of the dollar to take care of their daily needs has now come to a point that it is collapsing because of the successful work of the central bank to dry it up on the streets. Read that line over and over and see if that makes sense
http://www.sotaliraq.com/mobile-news.php?id=72841#ixzz27wuhAqCc
[Shredd] USD is drying up
[Shredd] IQD is in poor condition
[Shredd] the M2 lower denoms are ready at the gate
[grashopa] so……you are saying….a currency vacuum?
[Shredd] grashopa a necessary step and a brilliant one by shabbs
[dezertheat] Shredd so what would be the next step?
[campdav] Shredd] the M2 lower denoms are ready at the gate
[tobyboy1] Shredd The dollar sales been down recently also
[Shredd] dezertheat well, imho, the auction reform is getting a lot of focus right?
[dezertheat] right
[Shredd] remember the auctions go away when the dinar is internationally traded
[Shredd] nobody is talking about that fact
[campdav] Remember the arts that the Auctions would be done July 1
[grashopa] …….so….IYO……when this does RV…or, or …… will the auctions stop………or reverse, to selling dinar instead of usd
[Shredd] so, why all the focus on stability in the auctions if the dinar is going to be internationally traded soon?
[campdav] Good Q
[Shredd] no, when the auctions stop, the CBI will make their money like other banks do
[Shredd] net interest income on ivesting cash balances
[Shredd] inter-bank
[Shredd] short term investment funds
[Shredd] that’s how all banks “make money
[Shredd] investing all our balances
[Shredd] every day
[Shredd] but they can only do that
[Shredd] once the dinar is internationally recognized
[Shredd] we do this at my bank
[Shredd] every day
[Shredd] STIF = short term investment funds
[Shredd] liquidation funds in other word
[Shredd] that’s why your bank has a “cutoff” in the afternnon
[Shredd] because they sweep those funds and invest them
[Shredd] cbi can’t do that now
[Shredd] not that they don’t want to
[Shredd] the recipient banks can’t do it
[grashopa] so….what I’m getting from this is…………..just go to 1-1 ….and all the auction spread variences will go away…….immediatly, with the auctions going away…..
[campdav] Shredd they can’t do it until the artifical program rate is removed
[Shredd] sort of…..either reform the auctions or continue managing the float (1-1 or otherwise)
[Shredd] go to a free float, have an internationally recognized dinar
[Shredd] campdav correct
[lightingcslt] Shredd sounds good to me do it
[Shredd] a while ago, i posted a discussion on “will iraq be on the forex”
[Shredd] and in there, i added a list of the countries not on it
[Shredd] those countries are the ones we don’t do intra-bank trading for STIFs
[Shredd] kind of a simple thing
[Shredd] and if you think about it
[Shredd] it makes sense, right?
[Shredd] can you see a multi-billion dollar bank
[Shredd] trading cash at an instable an inconsistent rate?
[Shredd] heck no
[Shredd] that’s why the CBI has been getting some glares
[Shredd] “c’mon shabbs, regulate the auctions across the board”
[Shredd] so, again,
[Shredd] in my most humble opinion
[Shredd] from reading all this and learning here
[Shredd] a continued managed float
[Shredd] makes more sense
[tobyboy1] Shredd So why is HSBC considering pulling out they internatonal Bank?
[Shredd] tobyboy1 well, we saw articles both ways on that
[tobyboy1] Shredd then not sure if they pull out
[Shredd] i have not seen any news for a while on them
[dezertheat] Shredd is the IMF is the only one who can remove the artifical rate?
[Shredd] i’ll defer to bondlady on that one but i believe only the CBI can. IMF advises.
[dezertheat] oh ok
[Shredd] I’ve been chewing on this for awhile
[Shredd] so, I hope I’m not too confusing!
[Shredd] you know guys
[Shredd] in a nutshell
[Shredd] we win either way
[Shredd] right?
[Shredd] managed or free
[Shredd] if managed,
[Shredd] we have a ton of aritcles pointing to a buck
[Shredd] next budget will not have 000
[Shredd] amazing
[Shredd] dinar will be replaced in the next two months article
[Shredd] and if free float
[Shredd] like we’ve said
[Shredd] it will be awesome to see that horse run
[grashopa] what put a sense of urgency on this to me, is the currency vacuum going on right now
[Shredd] the market will eat it up
[dezertheat] grashopa yes i agree
[Shredd] grashopa you are spot on
[Shredd] so true gras
[Shredd] and that is not opinion
[Shredd] that is fact
[Shredd] supply
[Shredd] and
[Shredd] demand
[Shredd] like the economist Majid said
[campdav] Love that supply/demand ratio
[Shredd] we win either way
[lightingcslt] yes supply very short right now
[Shredd] right lighters
[campdav] Oh lordy let it float baby
[DDF] Yay Shredd and thank you….gotta love BL’s corner
[Shredd] i’m gonna wait and see
[Shredd] just like any good investor
[Shredd] study now
[Shredd] watch for trends
[Shredd] like bondlady has been teaching us all along
[Shredd] and then make an educated decision on when to pull the trigger
[danatisgi] Shredd could you tell me what “M2″ refers to…mental blank here !!
[Shredd] danatisgi the printing from 2003
[danatisgi] Shredd thanks !!
[lightingcslt] Shredd now we are in m3 arent we?
[lightingcslt] or just about
[Shredd] would be nice to see proof of printing, that’s for sure
[lightingcslt] Shredd lds?
[sisterbreen] and fils
[Shredd] yup
[lightingcslt] Shredd imo they must have them shabbs wouldn’t be stupid enough to pull the supply off the streets without having back up
[Shredd] right
[lightingcslt] just don’t have the new ones with kurds printing on them
[Shredd] right
[lightingcslt] folks we are just about there
[grashopa] well…………………today is the beginning of Q4
[ladydk] lightingcslt so do you think the printing is done?
[lightingcslt] ladydk not with the kurds language on them imo
[laura] That’s what I love about this site. You all are postive, yet informed and realistic…. thanks!
[ladydk] you think then that they will be using some stuff they printed 10 years ago?
[lightingcslt] laura yw thanks for being here
[laura] lightingcslt It’s my pleasure!
[lightingcslt] ladydk if and thats if which imo they have lds printed not just out in the streets yet
[ladydk] lightingcslt ty
[lightingcslt] ohhhh teamwork
[lightingcslt] ladydk yw
[campdav] lightingcslt If this was a trading floor I would have to say that we had a pretty heavy trade day so far
[lightingcslt] campdav for sure
[Shredd] campdav about the trading floor….
[Shredd] are you referring to Kap’s 17 day thing?
[campdav] Shredd Just commentiong on the board moving pretty quick today
[Shredd] ah
[dezertheat] Shredd yeah what is that he’s referring to?
[dezertheat] I thought that was weird
[Shredd] dezertheat i remember a long time ago i was chatting with my dad about the possibility of a slow crawl to a buck and beyond
[Shredd] and was telling him it was all good
[Shredd ]because we’d be able to sell whenever we wanted
[Shredd] and possibly to an entity outside of a bank
[Shredd] seems logical that a broker for example
[Shredd] would offer an earlier buy
[Shredd] kinda like when you win the lottery
[Shredd] take monthly payments of xxxxxx
[Shredd] or
[Shredd] take a smaller lump sum now
[dezertheat] oooooh I get it
[Shredd] you ‘pay’ for your impatience
[Shredd] but it’s legal
[dezertheat] i like that too
[Shredd] heck, we manage those monthy payout accounts at my bank
[Shredd] very interesting cool stuff
[dezertheat] very cool ty for sharing
[Shredd] anyway, i’m waiting for the best return possible
[Shredd] maybe cash in a little to party with lighters though
[Shredd] Shredd –out
