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Friday, November 30, 2012

PROJECT TO DELETE ZEROS DISCUSSION, 30 NOV

Project To Delete Zeros – Kaperoni & Members Discussion


BUGSY:  seems to me that they are saying hold up till they nominate someone to move forward with this...

nomination of a personal professional experienced high financial management central bank to maintain the stability of the Iraqi dinar, and balance the sovereign foreign currency.

now we know that raising the rate or setting out on float is part of the process, but are seeing them say that they are not starting the "whole process" or just the lifting of the zeroes?

SUNSPOT:  tlar, thank you for your analysis. I have a question for you. Once we see the free float begin and let's say the value of the dinar doubles in value from where it is today at 1166 to 583. Do you expect the dealers will experience a whole new wave of buyers for the dinar?

I know it's been said that there is not an unlimited supply of dinar. But it seems that all the dealers are never short on dinars to sell. I mean if I wanted to go buy a million USD of dinar I could. I certainly want the dinar to increase in value but at times it seems like this situation is too unreal and it also seems like it's the dealers that are the only ones profiting.
PALLADIUM:  I read this at 5 am this morning and thought about this all day.

This goes back to comments I have made that a float up to a 1 to 1 on par with the dollar would take longer than 3 to 10 months.

It appears only the timeline has changed, not the plan. Thank the Lord!!!

Malaki is a control freak physco. He likes Shabibi's plan, but he wants to be in charge and in control. Fine! Give the dictator the acknowledgement if that's what he wants; as long as we get our 1 to 1 exchange rate.

The timeline has changed apparently and we don't know when in 2014.

Kap appears to be more correct about the float every day. Thank you Kap! The time frame for a 1 to 1 exchange will take 12 to 18 months though. That's what I suspect Malaki is being told by economists and that may very well be more accurate. I would tend to agree with those economists.

It's a safe bet that the float will be coming in 2013. It's not what everyone wants to hear, but it's reality.  This article really is good news (though it probably doesn't seem like it), because it confirms that the plan is still in place, it will happen, and it's only the timeline that appears to have changed/been delayed (meaning it's on Malaki's timeline now).

ROCKINRICH:  im not sure if we should give any of these articles as much clout as we seem to be doing when  who knows what is true and what isnt  itll happen when it happens

TLAR:   Sunspot,  that's a hard question to answer.  I don't believe there will be a float.  I believe that there will be a 1 to 1 RV.  I believe that the dinar will come out of the shoot at this number then I think they will hold it there for at least 12 to 24 months.

The reason I believe is because of the study commissioned by the CBI to determine at what rate Iraq's dinar could be supported that was done in 2008.  That seems to be Shabibi's first plan he was following before he switched to just float the currency.

I believe the CBI has begun once again  following this plan.  The study concluded in 2008 concluded that the CBI could sustain a $1.13 value then went on to suggest that they hold it there, which means protect it at this level for 2 years.

Then after the suggested hold period, open it up to market conditions and let it float to where it wants to based on the market is at that time.  They anticipated that using a float and starting at $1 or close to it, it would go back to where it was before Saddam came into power at around $3.45.   Since  2008 when this study was done conditions have changed.

Oil production has increased but then so has the money in circulation.  I'm sure that those who keep these statistics as does the the IMF and CBI know what the ratios are today.   If I had to guess the dinar could now be supported at the level Shabibi was shooting for right out of the shoot, .86.

I have to believe this was a number Shabibi had decided upon working closely with the IMF.  It is obviously anticipated that once the dinar does go to a float the dinar will increase in value.

 As oil goes to 7 mbpd by 2017 the currency will be more valuable.  By 2020 they estimate 12 mbpd and again based on these levels of production,  the dinar should benifit immensely.

Assuming that they hit these targets I believe what politicians in Iraq have recently stated.  The will have the most valuable currency in the world.  Of course by then I won't be following the dinar.  I will sell out day one at .86.  I don't trust these camel jockies as far as you can spit them.  I assure you they will be glad to see me leave.

It will be a win win for both Iraq and me.  I'm sure this is not the answer you were looking for but this is my opinion of what will happen.

KAPERONI:  We have talked about this, and posted all the numerous economic effects the dinar value would have.  Everything from agriculture, to manufacturing...and the ISX.   Tariffs, gas subsidies, food subsidies, bank financing ... the list is getting really long.

IMO there is no way Iraq can wait very long before they make it internationally convertible.  IMO, based on what I know, the rate will be a float and that gets the ball rolling.

 Keep in mind the there is a substantial advantage to this float...it is a sure way to raise the value of the dinar (and the dinar out of country) some 7-10 trillion, that Iraq does not have to pay for.

Banks, speculators, etc. pay for it through the Forex and it ends up in central banks around the world.  So Iraq see the results (value) and the benefits (cost) of a float.

TLAR:  Kap you make a good argument for the float and there is some advantage to a float.  My question to you is if it going to be a float, why do the  new articles once again mention  "remove the zeros?"

 If this is not now the plan then I would think the Finance Committee, the CBI, the Ministry of Finance and members of the Economical committee would see this as counter productive.

For members of each of these organizations to be using this term when a float is the decision, we must assume that they are acting wrongly independantly.  The other reason could be they are speaking in concert because the plan is back to "removing the zeros"  Any thoughts on this?

KAPERONI:  Removing the zeros will happen as a result of the float...as the rate rises, the zeros go away (remove the zeros).

TERRY:  Tlar, you might want to keep in mind that Kap and Steve have talked with the facilitator and have actually been to the trading room.  They know that contracts were signed between the GOI and the facilitator and the CB and the facilitator.

 Kap stated on his last cc that even though Shabibi is gone the contracts are still in force and the plan is still to float the currency.  KAP even gave us more info about how sophisticated and intricate the whole program is and how truly large this event will be.

That from the facilitator.  Obviously KAP knows more than what he is telling us (who) but obviously he has a good reason to not share.  IMO  while you make a great case for your belief that they are back to the old plan.

I gotta go with Kap because he has some inside info that is awful important and relevant to this investment.  i really like your posts and you are obviously extremely knowledgable about what you say.  I personally gotta believe that it looks like a float to me!!!  You may be right, I guess we just have to wait and see.  Like you said, either way,  we be rich!!!

ARTICLES OF DISCUSSION LINKS

The current crisis, the central bank does not affect the deletion of zeros
LINK

Project deleting three zeros from the national currency will be during the year (2014)
LINK

SCALP:   So the float does fit in with these new articles now saying 2014 for the removal of zeros, so from these latest articles with a flat theory in mind we have about a year, maybe just under a year to wait before the rate gets up high enough to release the new currency at the start of a year.

So what? we are looking at a float starting next june july? or next october november? or do we think they will float it soon but its going to flaot up so slow that we dont have to worry about it for another year until its of a high enough value to release the new currency (small denoms)? which we know has to happen at the start of a new year.

Ive still got hope for a straight rv soon or early Jan, I dont much feel like waiting a whole nother year like this float theory suggests...not that I have a choice.

Unless of course we think that if we seen a float like NOW....it will get up to a good enough rate to release new currency in jan 2013.....but then, we have these articles stating 2014.

I really hope these 2014 articles are wrong because otherwise we may as well take a year long vacation from this investment.

I just cant see how a float would work soon by all that we know and then looking at these arts.

Hmmmf but what do I know?

I thinK we have 2 scenarios now.

1 - straight rv = we cash out very soon

2 - float = we have about a year or more to wait, probably jan 2014 when the rate is good enouggh to release the lower denoms

If im not wrapping my head around this properly please help me understand better :)

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