Wednesday, February 8, 2012

ADAM MONTANA CHAT, 8 FEB

[Adam Montana] Ok, first a brief summary 
[Adam Montana] I am a VERY patient person 
[Adam Montana] but for the first time in a long time 
[Adam Montana] i am annoyed with Iraq 


[Adam Montana] this is like watching nascar for me 
[Adam Montana] I know when you're watching the Indy 500, you can focus on one car for 20, 30 minutes... and you see them maneuvering and jockeying 
[Adam Montana] and in that long long time, they might only gain two spots 
[Adam Montana] but then at the end they ZOOM! to the front of the pack and take the race 

[Adam Montana] I don't know how people watch it. I'm ok just to catch the last 5 laps 
[Adam Montana] that's how this feels right now with Iraq 

[Adam Montana] yeah, I know... they have to maneuver and jockey and get in just the right spot 
[Adam Montana] and right now I think we are in that agonizingly boring 20 minutes before the last 5 laps 

Adam Montana] so here's what we have 
[Adam Montana] a very good amount of news showing that Iraq is steadily puting themselves in position 


[Adam Montana] a very good amount of news that shows Iraq building strong investment laws and basically the FOUNDATION for a higher rate 

[Adam Montana] and also some serious and meaningful actions to position themselves with Kuwait and the IMF to sustain a higher rate 

[Adam Montana] it's all important, it is all going good, but this is the part where it's like watching CSPAN. 

[Adam Montana] nothing EXTREMELY exciting has happened for a few weeks 
[Adam Montana] I still feel the same about it - if we see the HCL popped in, we stand a VERY good chance of being in a 7 day window 


[Adam Montana] but barring that one exciting announcement, we could be anywhere from a week to 4 months out. 

[Adam Montana] and that's exactly why I don't watch the first half to 3/4 of any nascar race [Adam Montana] ready when you are, kcw! 
[Adam Montana] The first question is a bit long, but I think it's worth it 
[Adam Montana] go ahead 
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[kcw] TexasGranny Let me start this off: Would like your opinion on this article. February 4, 2012 Iraq wants Kuwait to repay debts through investments 03/02/2012 Baghdad, 3 February (aknews) – the Iraqi Government announced Friday, wished to resolve and close the file of Kuwaiti debt through the implementation of investment projects for Kuwaiti companies in Iraq.


The adviser said the President's Office to the Ministry of Mary boss news agency of Kurdistan (aknews) that "Iraq wants to close the file of Kuwaiti debt through the implementation of investment projects in the next phase. "The President added that "Iraq hoped Kuwait help break item VII during 2012 and this will be discussed in detail with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki during his forthcoming visit to Kuwait to be convened by the end of March. 

"The Iraqi Government announced Sunday that exit Iraq from Chapter VII, which would be in June, the Security Council depends on the position of Kuwait towards three important files is the issue of missing Kuwaitis and archive, as well as the issue of the demarcation of the border between the two countries.

The President noted that "Kuwait want to extend new relationships based on sharing common economic and commercial interests between the two countries and to forget the past era and help Iraq out of item VII".

The Security Council had decided in mid-January of last year, a unanimous vote on three resolutions concerning the lifting of the embargo on Iraq on import nuclear materials for peaceful purposes, and to cancel oil-for-food programme, and also extended the immunity for awards that were imposed under section VII until the end of June.From: Jafar Alunan, pen: Parwan as Yusuf 

[kcw] Do you think the RV will be delayed until June , waiting on the Chapter 7 release or could it possibly happen at the end of March? 
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[Adam Montana] The reason I wanted this whole thing posted is twofold 


[Adam Montana] 1. This should clear up any confusion about Chapter 7. Iraq is NOT out of Chapter 7, and this article CLEARLY shows that they are banned from importing nuclear materials for ANY purposes, peaceful or otherwise 

[Adam Montana] you don't take a million dollars to the bank in a brown paper bag in plain sight with no security 

[Adam Montana] you use a dang Brinks truck, right? 
[Adam Montana] same goes here 


[Adam Montana] Iraq can't reclaim all of their lost wealth and revalue the Dinar with no real protection 
[Adam Montana] if they were to receive a nuclear threat, they would have no way to defend themselves and let's be honest - the UN is a bunch of sissies. 


[Adam Montana] If Iran or another country wants to take Iraq's wealth after they RV, the UN would waste time issuing requests and warnings and the wholecountry could be taken over before anyone makes a move 

[Adam Montana] is that a bad thing? You bet! 
[Adam Montana] so Iraq needs to be able to fight fire with fire.... in other words, NO RV UNTIL CH 7 IS LIFTED 


[Adam Montana] The good news is it could be done very quickly 
[Adam Montana] I believe the HCL is the tougher issue, so once HCL is lifted Chapter 7 should follow VERY shortly 


[Adam Montana] and then the RV 
[Adam Montana] ok, so the other part of the answer is this 
[Adam Montana] that article also shows that Kuwait wants more than just "money" - they want to be invested in Iraq's future. 


[Adam Montana] They want dividends and stock splis 
[Adam Montana] splits* 
[Adam Montana] in other words, they want to benefit from the RV 


[Adam Montana] if they simply say "ok, we support releasing Chapter 7, please RV and pay us the money" 
[Adam Montana] then they get their money and they are DONE. 


[Adam Montana] but if they have a vested interest in Iraq now when the value is low 
[Adam Montana] they get all the benefits of riding the currency up-up-up 
[Adam Montana] just like we do 


[Adam Montana] it's a win-win-win for everyone 
[Adam Montana] so, to summarize - I love that article. It's one of the most common sense articles out there, no fluff, just facts 


[Adam Montana] and it shows that more people than just us speculators have a vested interest and DESIRE for Iraq to continue moving forward 
[Adam Montana] sorry that was so long winded 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] fnbplanet Thanks Adam! If Iraq does not absolutely need Chapter 7 to be resolved in order to RV, why wouldn't they RV first, and pay them off with post RV Dinar? 
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[Adam Montana] They could do that, but in my opinion they DO need Chapter 7 lifted 
[Adam Montana] OR they must have a guaranteed lift on Chapter 7 IMMEDIATELY. I mean within 48 hours 
[Adam Montana] it's absolutely crucial that Iraq is able to protect itself, and they can't do that without Chapter 7 lifted. 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] few24u Hi Adam! Hope you and everyone had a great Superbowl weekend. Any changes since the last Chat that you would like to make, or the feelings you had at that time, on the following statement you made when you made it? 

"[Adam Montana] If they vote the HCL in today or tomorrow, then we are YES within days! If not, we are at least a week out. (That's my opinion. If they surprise me on Sunday I won't be mad!!! ) " Mahalo and Aloha ke Akua! 
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[Adam Montana] I'm still in the same spirits, but like I mentioned earlier... this is the part of Nascar that I hate. 
[Adam Montana] watching them go round and round, we know there will be a winner, the question is "how many cautions wil we have?!" 
[Adam Montana] 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] Russell M Adam, is there any possibility that Iraq can force the RV cash-in on their soil only; or will they have to use the global banking/market system to accomplish this? It seems to me with Eletronic technology there is no way they can do a land based sovereign soil RV... just askin... 
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[Adam Montana] It is possible 
[Adam Montana] they can stop all international banking transactions 
[Adam Montana] for whatever time they want 


[Adam Montana] is that a smart move? No, and that's why I don't think it will happen 
[Adam Montana] but we have to acknowledge the possibility 
[Adam Montana] of course


[Adam Montana] you could get hit by a bus later today 
[Adam Montana] that's also a possibility 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] Thriver Adam - Being rather new to this whole dinar thing I've been trying to update myself on stuff. One thing I heard on an audio from quite some time ago was that you indicated there could very well be a 70% tax on our profit here in the states. Is that true? Is it a law already? Or is it just speculation at this point. I'm excited about the potential of this investment but struggling to learn everything that should be learned. Thanks for your help! 
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[Adam Montana] people hate to hear that. They HATE to hear it 
[Adam Montana] some people insist it will be capital gains, simply because they don't like to think that they may have to pay higher taxes 


[Adam Montana] well, look at it realistically... why would the government WANT to let us keep so much of that money? 
[Adam Montana] They wouldn't. That's not the way our government works 
[Adam Montana] as of now, there is no law - but there are rumors of exactly those kind of laws ready to be voted on 


[Adam Montana] if the Dinar RVs now, there is plenty of time to pass a windfall tax law specifically for the IQD before the end of the year 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] dinareagle Adam, If there's a worst case scenario with our monetary and financial system(s), and the US dollar loses it's reserve currency status in the world, how would this impact our investment in Iraqi dinars? Thanks, DinarEagle 
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[Adam Montana] haha! Great question 
[Adam Montana] in a worst case scenario, it's possible that our Dinars could be the safer of the two currencies 
[Adam Montana] 
[Adam Montana] let's hope Dinars become worth more than the USD, but not due to a crash in the USD value 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] Danomite Hello Adam! Thanks for taking time to do this chat each week. It really helps as we process news articles that we read throught the week to come to the chat and get your thoughts on what's going on.

My question is this, you have mentioned multiple times in the past that you are not a rate and date guy but that you tend to look for "windows" of opportunity for an RV. Do you think we are in a "window" right now or do you think we are looking at mid year when the UN revisits the chapter VII issue with Iraq? 
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[Adam Montana] Thanks for the nice words 
[Adam Montana] I'm not a date and rate guy 
[Adam Montana] but if I were to put a window on it 
[Adam Montana] now to that June date is a reasonable guess 
[Adam Montana] 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] BKD Adam, happy to be on your team. My question, if Isreal should continue to make threats or actually bomb the nuclear sites in Iran, how would this affect the RV/RI of the dinar? 
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[Adam Montana] It's hard to imagine a major RV in the middle of a major war 
[Adam Montana] but at this time, we are not in the middle of that war 
[Adam Montana] it's just threats 
[Adam Montana] so I'm not too worried about it yet 
[Adam Montana] if a bomb actually goes off, then it's a different story 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] Greenedinar Adam, a friend posed the following question to me and wanted to get your opinion: Can Iraq simply redenominate by raising the 000's which would reduce the currency , then revalue to a greater than usd value. example: 1) 25k note = 25 dinar, revalue to $1usd= $25, This would dedollarize Iraq, lower the currency and keep speculators like us from gaining windfall wealth. Thank you 
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[Adam Montana] They sure can! Again, this is one of the possibilities 
[Adam Montana] keep in mind that Iraq LOST a huge amount of wealth a decade ago 
[Adam Montana] and they are now in a position where it is possible to regain some of that 


[Adam Montana] so yes, they COULD simply redenominate and nobody makes money... but Iraq doesn't make money that way either. 

[Adam Montana] in fact, there's no reason to redenominate unless the rate changes 
[Adam Montana] so I would guess that until the rate changes, no redenomination will occur 
[Adam Montana] and when the redenomination occurs, there will be a rate change 
[Adam Montana] and when there's a rate change, I am betting that we profit 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] Nelg Adam, I appreciate all the time and effort you are spending in preparing investments after the RV. However, how secure are the opportunities as compared to a standard investments in an adviser managed portfolio? Those investments have a potential to "go south" as do most investment. Will your suggested investments be more secure? Or less secure? 
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[Adam Montana] There are many levels of Post RV investments. They are categorized from "ultra stable" to "ultra risky". 
[Adam Montana] just like any investment situation, the riskier investments will have more potential 
[Adam Montana] and just like any other investment situation, you need to look at your personal situation when deciding which ones to get involved with 
[Adam Montana] 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[
kcw] dinarbelle Hi Adam, I'm thinking of buying more Dinars. Why are the lower denom's sold at a higher rate? Will it matter what you have at cash in? Thanks so much! 
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[Adam Montana] Will it matter what you have at cash in? NO. 
[Adam Montana] why are lower denoms more expensive? Simple 
[Adam Montana] 1. There is more hype involved. 
[Adam Montana] 2. They cost 2-10x more to import 


[Adam Montana] think about it... it takes (5) 5k notes to equal (1) 25k note 
[Adam Montana] therefore, the same 25k WEIGHS 5x as much 


[Adam Montana] and therefore, shiping costs on 5k notes is 5x as much 
[Adam Montana] that's pretty much it 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] jas428 Could you clarify the importance (as you briefly touched on it last week) of NOT reading into the auctions too much? It appears people are going nuts regarding the new regulations that have caused the auctions to go very low and slowly build back up again and how it "has" to mean an RV. 

To me it is very clear that they are protecting their money from Iran because that is of the utmost importance in their country right now. To many people in this investment, they go crazy watching the auctions like a hawk, when IMO the laws are way more important to watch as they are read and passed than the auctions. Your opinion? 
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[Adam Montana] You summed it up beautifully. The auctions are important, but the laws trump the auctions. 
[Adam Montana] The laws that will define the RV will show up before the results will be displayed in the auctions 
[Adam Montana] 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[
kcw] Saint Adam. Just listened to Larry Edelson's ' The Great Betrayal of 2012" . Sounds very scary and if this is a truism and the Juan becomes the World Reserve Currency will we be able to convert our dinars to Chinese yuan in B. Just asking and if this is not a viable question I apologize in advance. Thanks anad GoooooRrrrrrVvvvvvv 
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[Adam Montana] I hope Juan doesn't become a world currency 
[Adam Montana] but yuan I'm ok with 
[Adam Montana] yes, many of our partner banks deal in yuan 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] kjwayne where's the rv??? 
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[Adam Montana] is this a Wendys
[Adam Montana] commercial? 
[Adam Montana] next please 
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[kcw] Shick Hi Adam. How much trust should we put into the Warka Bank of Iraq. I understand that you have dinars in the Warka Bank, so apparently you trust them to some degree, do you honestly believe after the RV Warka will be on the up and up when it comes to making transactions with this bank; like we normally do here in the US, since Warka is in Iraq and ran by unstable minds (not all), how deep is your trust and how should we? 
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[Adam Montana] Good question. 
[Adam Montana] There is no guarantee that Warka won't simply take all of your money and run 
[Adam Montana] I have money in Warka, I have money in ISX stocks, and I have cash Dinar. 
[Adam Montana] The answer is the same for all three: Don't put in more than you can afford to lose 
[Adam Montana] because there is no guarantee here 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[
kcw] Nakida Hi and THANK you Adam.............A friend of mine told me that when the Dinar RV's to take it straight to the bank and cash in. She stated that if I wait it my devalue again in days. I heard that it will RV (possibly) again within days of the first. What is your take on this, and should I high tail it to the bank and NOT wait? Will it go up and down in value again? Thanks a bunch!!! 
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[Adam Montana] It might devalue, or it might go up. 
[Adam Montana] Nobody can tell with absolute precision 
[Adam Montana] next please! 
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[kcw] teddyjay Hello...Are you still as excited about all that's occurring as you were? 
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[Adam Montana] yep! Just wondering how many cautions there is going to be 
[Adam Montana] oh! Awesome, looks like that was the last one. Ok friends, that's it for now... keep smiling, stay sane, and watch out for the rumors 

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